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GLOBEC – InternationalGLOBEC – InternationalIntegration & Synthesis Activities Integration & Synthesis Activities
Steps to place GLOBEC in a Steps to place GLOBEC in a Climate Change context Climate Change context
• Existing Programs • New Programs•Future Projections
Global sponsors Regional sponsors
ESSAS
Southern Ocean GLOBECCLIOTOP
CCCCCCC
SPACCGLOBEC: a Regionally-implemented programme
NEMURO LTL
• A consensus conceptual model was designed representing the minimum trophic structure and biological relationships … thought to be essential in describing ecosystem dynamics in the North Pacific
North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional
Oceanography
Yamanaka et al. (2005)
NEMURO.FISH
50-year hindcast to look at “Regime Shift” signals
in fish populations
(Recent request from NOAA to PICES for advice on Regime Shifts – FERRRS Report)
uMN
L-1
0.084
0.088
0.092
g ye
ar-1
0
40
80
o C
9.510.010.511.011.5
0.048
0.052
0.056
0.060
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000.14
0.16
0.18
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
WCVI
Herring growth rate (age 3 to 4)
Temperature
Small zooplankton
Large zooplankton
Predatory zooplankton
Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.
Summary of time series
All three eastern Pacific locations show a shift in late 70’s:
• Herring growth increased in Bering Sea, but decreased in WCVI and PWS
• Temperatures warmed at each location
• Predatory zooplankton decreased
WCVI
PWS
B. Sea
West Coast Vancouver Island:
Zooplankton variation is most important (Temperature effect small)
Prince William Sound:
Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Zooplankton effect dominantBering Sea:
Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Temperature effect dominant
Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.
ESSP Open Science Conference
Marine Ecosystems: Trends, Feedbacks, and Predicting Future States9-12 Nov. 2006
Future Projection of Ecosystem Change
in the Western North PacificFuture Projection of Ecosystem Change
in the Western North Pacific
Taketo Hashioka1, Yasuhiro Yamanaka1,2,
Takashi T. Sakamoto2 and Fumitake Shido1 (1. Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University )(2. Frontier Research System for Global Change )
Thank to Dr. Maki Noguchi Aita for providing figures.
General Hypothesis :Ecosystem Change Associated with Global Warming
2/13
Ocean Acidification
Decrease in CaCO3 Producerby the Lower PH
(This process is not included in our model)
To predict the ecosystem change quantitatively…
We need to understand, firstly, which process is more essential for ecosystem change,
and secondly,how the ecosystem seasonally and regionally
responds to global warming.
Ocean General Circulation Model * CCSR Ocean Component model (Hasumi et al., 2002)* Horizontal resolution: 1o x 1o degrees
Ecosystem Model* 15-Compartment model extended from NEMURO (Yamanaka et al., 2004)
Boundary conditions for present-day sim.* Monthly mean climatology from data-sets of OMIP and WOA 01
Purpose of This Study
To predict the response of the lower-trophic level ecosystem to global warming, we conducted and compared
the present-day and global warming experiments, using a 3-D NEMURO in the western North Pacific.
SeaWiFS AnnualMean
Chl-a Conc.
Model Domain (20-60oN, 115-170oE)
Kuroshio Current
OyashioCurrent
< Setting of our model >
5/13
A data set of simulated fields according to the IS92a G.W. scenario,which contributed to the IPCC 3rd report.
(conducted by CCSR/NIES COAGCM ; Nozawa et al., 2001)
Boundary Conditions for G.W. Experiment
IS92a: Intermediate G.W. Scenario
Boundary Conditions at the Sea Surface * Wind Stress * Sea Surface Temp. * Fresh Water Flux * Shortwave Radiation
* At the end of the 21st century (averaged from 2090 to 2100)
6/13
Increase in the Kuroshio Current from 40cm/s to 50cm/s at its maximum. associated with global warming.
Change in Flow Field @ 100m
40cm/sKuroshio Current
+10cm/s(about 30%)
(Present-day Simulation) (Global Warming) – (Present-day)
Annual Mean
0 10 20 30 40 50 [cm/s] 0 3 6 9 12 [cm/s]
Annual MeanOyashioCurrent
Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007 (in press, the Special Issue of NEMURO in Ecological Modeling)
7/13
1m/s
35N
High-resolution model (1/4ox1/6o)on the Earth Simulator
The increase in the Kuroshio Current by 30% associated with G.W. is also
reported by Sakamoto et al. (2005), using a high-resolution coupled climate model.
Perc
enta
ge o
fDi
atom
s (%
)Ph
y. C
onc.
(um
olN/
l)
Transition Site (155E, 38N)Subarctic Site (155E, 45N) Subtropical Site (155N, 28N)
* The biomass change at the transition site is the largest due to the large change in MLD.
0.7
0.5
DiatomsNon-Diatom Small Phy.
-30%
Change in Seasonal Variations (0-20m)
Black Line: Pre.Red Line: G.W.
* The onset of the spring bloom is predicted to occur half a month earlier.* The maximum biomass in the spring bloom is predicted to decrease by 30%.* The change in the dominant group appears notably at the end of the spring bloom.
NoChange
12/13
Small Pelagics And Climate Small Pelagics And Climate Change SPACCChange SPACC
Toward a comparative approach of EBC dynamics.
Discussions are underway for developing a concerted modelling approach involving several Institutes and scientists from EBC regions (led by French IRD)
Canary Benguela
Humboldt
Are the models complex enough?
(Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.A. Einstein )
NEMURO.FISH
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
C. finmarchicus
C. helgolandicus
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Long-term changes in the Long-term changes in the abundance abundance
of two key species in the North Seaof two key species in the North Sea
Per
cen
tage
of
C. h
elgo
lan
dicu
s
(Beaugrand)
Long-term changes in the Long-term changes in the abundance abundance
of two key species in the North Seaof two key species in the North Sea
Calanus helgolandicusCalanus finmarchicus
mon
ths
Years (1958-1999)
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
Years (1958-1999)
diatoms calcifiers N2-fixers Phaeocystis
picophytos
nanophytos
zoopl. filter feeders
mesozoo-plankton
SiO2
CaCO3 DOMmicrozoo-plankton
Foram-inifera
Process Observations
bacteria
Validation Observation
s
Dynamic Green Ocean Model
Tro
phi
c Le
vel
Zooplankton
10 Production
DemersalFish
PlanktivorousFish
Rhomboid Approach
The rhomboids indicate the conceptual characteristics for models with differentspecies and differing areas of primary focus.
Rhomboid is broadest wheremodel has its greatest functional complexity i.e., at the level of the target Organism.
deYoung et al, 2004
But how to do it?
Calanus finmarchicus
prey
predators
BASIN
Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and INtegration of oceanographic and climate-related processes and
the dynamics of plankton and fish populations
in the North Atlantic Ocean.
BASIN
Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and INtegration of oceanographic and climate-related processes and
the dynamics of plankton and fish populations
in the North Atlantic Ocean.
A cooperative project that involves individuals from European and North
American countries
A cooperative project that involves individuals from European and North
American countries
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN SHELF SEAS
Climate forcing of ocean circulation
(Heath et al.)
BASIN Aim
To understand and simulate the population structure and dynamics of broadly distributed, and trophically and biogeochemically important plankton and fish species in the North Atlantic ocean to resolve the impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems, and thereby contribute to ocean management.
Modelling: Basic goals of BASIN
• Hindcast modelling studies to understand the observed variability of the North Atlantic ecosystem over (at least) the last 50 years
• Construction of scenarios of possible ecosystem changes in response to future climate variability
We will focus on four major trophic components
• Primary production and biogeochemical cycles
• Zooplankton
• Planktivorous fish
• Demersal fish
Proposal to NSF’s PIRE: Partnership for International Research &
Education
US institutions:• UNC-Chapel Hill• LSU• Rutgers• NCAR• Alaska Fisheries
Science Center
Japan:• Hokkaido University• JAMSTEC• Tohuku Fisheries Lab
Norway:• Institute of Marine
Research• U of Bergen• Bjerknes Center
Objectives bring together key individuals from scientific cultures to
continue already established partnerships that are developing ideas and approaches on using novel modeling approaches to quantify the impact of climate on marine ecosystems, and
teach young scientists and graduate students how to engage and develop international partnerships, and foster long-term programs for scientific and educational collaboration between the US, Japan and Norway, all of which are confronting potential severe changes in the structure and function of high latitude marine ecosystems in response to Earth’s changing climate and other anthropogenic stressors.