Global Warming: Implications for Life in Ontario · 2012-09-10 · 1 Global Warming: Implications for Life in Ontario Carolinian Canada, October 2007 Responding to and managing for

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Global Warming: Implicationsfor Life in Ontario

Carolinian Canada, October 2007

Responding to and managing for climate change is about asking the right questions

(Source: Lemieux et al., 2005)

[~Last 100 Years]

1.2oC

0.26oC

0.98oC

Human Population Growth in Billions

1750-2150

Human Population Distribution 1800-2050

20509 Billion! Population pressures will continue to increase

2

Temperature Scenarios[Union of Concerned Scientists, 2003]

We don’t really know how people will behave during the next 100 years

~2-6oC

(So

urc

e:

Utn

e M

ag

azin

e,

2002)

(Source: IPCC, 2001)

More Conserver-Oriented

More Industrial

[there are 40 scenarios]

Multi-model Global Averages of Warming (Relative to 1980-1999):Selected Scenarios

?

?

?

?

?

?

Atmospheric-Ocean General Climate Model Projections of Surface Temperatures

Describing OntarioDescribing OntarioDescribing OntarioDescribing Ontario’’’’s Future Climatess Future Climatess Future Climatess Future Climates

Annual Temperature Difference Between

1971-2000 and2071-2100

A2 Scenario Moderately Industrial

Dan McKenney - CFS

Steve Colombo - MNR

Scenarios(A Measure of

Cumulative Impact?)

Climate Variables Time Space

A1B

A1C

A1G

A1T

A2

B2

B1

Average Summer

Temperature

Average Winter

Temperature

Warm Season

Precipitation

Cold Season Precipitation

Isothermality

Growing Season Length

Etc

1971-2000

2011-2040

2041-2070

2071-2100

MNR Region

MNR District

UKMO

HadCM2

CGCM1

CGCM2

CCRS98

CSIRvOMk2b

FMU

WMU

Ecoregion

Ecodistrict

Watershed

Etc.

ClimateModel

Modelling Climate Change in OntarioModelling Climate Change in OntarioModelling Climate Change in OntarioModelling Climate Change in Ontario

VulnerabilityStatus

GeneticLevel

OrganismLevel

PopulationLevel

Meta-population Level

EcosystemLevel

3

Winter temperature

Temperature 1971-2000 Change by 2071-2100

+4 to 5+5 to 6

+6 to 77 to 8+8 to 9

+9 to 10

4 to 5

5 to 6

7 to 8

9 to 10

6 to 7

8 to 9

-1

-12

-24

Temperature increase

Average winter temperature, CGCM2, A2 scenario

-1

-24

-12

-6

-18

A2 ScenarioAverage Winter Temperature Difference

1971-2000 to 2071-2100

4-5oC

5-6oC

Some Emerging Axioms?Some Emerging Axioms?Some Emerging Axioms?Some Emerging Axioms?

1. It is risky to make medium and long-term decisions that assume a stable climate.


1. Can’t assume a stable climate:

Changing temperature and

precipitation patterns:•Reduced access to water

•Heat stress•Disease and parasites

Extreme event periodicity:

•Floods•Blowdowns

•Fire•Drought

•Bugs (Mountain Pine Beetle)

Species Distribution and abundance

Species growth and yieldHuman health

Human safetyEconomic impacts

Cultural impacts

Organism Response to Rapid Climate Change: [Adapt, Move, or Die]

Adaptation/Micro-evolution

Home Range Change/Migration

Extirpation/Extinction

[Lori Stiles]

[Varrin et al., 2007]

population structure

timing of life cycle

heritability

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Known and potential effects

Ixodes scapularis is the vector for the causative agent of Lyme Disease in humans

Increased adult survivorship in winter leads to range expansion at northern boundary

Demography – expansionBlack-legged tick

A2

Adapted from Ogden et al. 2006 Internat. J. Parasitol. 36: 63-70.

Temperature 1971-2000

Summer temperature

Change by 2071-2100

HIGH 22

MID 16

LOW 10

+3 to 4

+4 to 5

+5 to 610

22

16

+4 to 5

Average summer temperature, CGCM2, A2 scenario

14

18

[K. Schiefer, 2004]



2. Human health will be an issue.

Demography – contraction


Possible declines in southern parts of range as precipitation (in parts of

the range) and temperature increase

In areas with marked increases in snowfall, increased pressure from wolf

predation may occur which may further facilitate moose declines

As deer invade moose range, potential for an increased incidence of

P. tenuis and liver fluke infection in moose and increased mortality[Varrin et al., 2007]

Moose

Phenology – expansionEastern bluebird


Eastern Bluebird is now migrating and breeding earlier due to warmer

winters (Butler 2003, Torti and Dunn 2005)

May even begin to over-winter in some areas of Ontario where average

January temperature does not fall below -6.7°C

Potential to expand number of broods produced in one breeding season,

leading to range expansion


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___________________________________________________________________Trait Direction of trait Relative risk

____________________________________________________________________Geographic range size Large Low

Small High

Genetic variability High Low

Low High

Vagility High LowLow High

Location of range boundaries SBO* High

NBO** Low____________________________________________________________________

*SBO = southern range boundary occurs in Ontario**NBO = northern range boundary occurs in Ontario

Relative risks of climate change associated with certain traits of species in Ontario………..


Of 175 terrestrial vertebrate species studied in relation to Ontario and climate change:

• 10 show evidence of contraction

• 62 show evidence of expansion

• 103 show no change

With ~ a 1oC increase……….

Varrin et al. (2007)

Can you “roll up” single species effects?.....

Mammal species richness = 1.96 (annual temperature) + 38.1 + error

Energy models predict that biodiversity in Ontario should increase with climate warming

[Kerr and Packer. 1998. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 49: 263-270]

Biodiversity and Ecodiversity

Genes

Species

Ecosystems


Energy models do not account for “biotic interactions”…..

Synergy

Asynchrony

Asymmetry

Thresholds

#

#

##

#

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

##S#S

#

#S#S

#S

#S#S

#S

#

#S

#S

##

##

#

#

#

#S

#

#

#

#S

#S

Lake Ontario

Lake Huron

#

#

##

#

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

##S#S

#

#S#S

#S

#S#S

#S

#

#S

#S

##

##

#

#

#

#S

#

#

#

#S

#S

Lake Ontario

Lake Huron

Annual Temperature

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f E

xti

ncti

on

+?

So what does this all mean?

Energy Model: Temperature = Biodiversity

But…….

biotic interactions are complex, and may often lead to extinctions, creating a deficit of species compared to energy models

Whether or not there is a reduction…..

the configuration of Ontario’s ecosystems and the constituents of its biodiversity will change


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3. Every species and every ecosystem will respond to climate change in a unique way.

(Source: dslreports.com)

• Population: 74,000• 191 mm rain in 24 hrs• 4,500 homes damaged• Downtown core flooded• $70+ million in damage

July 15, 2004





4. Every town and city and every industry will be confronted with a unique set of climate-induced impacts and associated management issues, and will need to plan for a range impacts with a range of solutions and adaptation strategies.

Un

iqu

e &

Th

reate

ned

Syste

ms

Extr

em

e C

lim

ate

Even

ts

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

Imp

acts

Glo

bal

Ag

gre

gate

Im

pacts

Larg

e-S

cale

, H

igh

Im

pact

Even

ts

Risk

(The province needs to…) enhance the current risk assessment capability in Ontario so that …risks to biodiversity from climate change can be better evaluated, and priorities for contingency plans and response teams identified.

Goals

1. Protect the genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity of Ontario.

2. Use and develop the biological assets of Ontario sustainably, and capture

benefits from such use for Ontarians

Principles

• All Canadians depend on biodiversity and have a responsibility to contribute to biodiversity conservation and to use

biological resources in a sustainable manner.

• An ecological approach to resource

management is central to conserving biodiversity and using our biological

resources in a sustainable manner.

Hydrological Cycle

7

apr may jun jul aug sep

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1971-2000

2011-2040

2041-2070

2071-2100

Availa

ble

soil

mois

ture

(m

m)

Silt Loam

Stand age (years)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Sta

nd v

olu

me

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Warmer & wetter

Historic

Drier

Changes in Soil Moisture May be Crucial

Nipigon Forest, A2 greenhouse gas scenarioCanadian GCM

Nipigontemperature

2071-2100

Precipitation2071-2100

+4 to 5

+5 to 6

0 to +10%

Theoretical






5. The concept/ideal/target of sustainability will change.

Q: Do existing approaches to data and information management meet our needs?

Soils Wild Life GeologyHuman

UseWater

Collection of Baseline Data and Information

Interpretations of Resource

Status and Use

Decisions

and Actions

Summary Reporting on

Resource Status and Use

Management

Information

Evaluation

Data

Feedback

1. Monitor habitat e.g. water temperatures

2. Monitor species

Great Lakes too cold for Asian grass carp? For how long?

or

Q: Commitment to biological, physical, and socio-economic monitoring?

Present Present

Future Future

or

timetime







6. A robust monitoring and assessment program is critical to adaptive management.

“You live and learn. Or you don’t live long.”

(Source: Robert Heinlein)

“Want to go halves on another toboggan?”

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• Understand

• Mitigate

• Adapt

Responding to Climate Change

assess

evaluate

adjust

design

implementmonitor

P

P

P P

P P P P

Ecoe lement

Ecosi te

Ecosection

Ecodistrict

Ecoregion

Ecoprovince

Local Policy

Provincial PolicyThis p olicy d oe s no t n eutra lize

policies d eveloped fo r smaller

eco system s.

T his p olicy d oe s no t co nt ra vene

p olicies d evelo ped fo r larg er

eco system s.

Integrated Policy/Plan Development








7. New governance tools and techniques – adaptive management using a robust public-government partnership.

It’s about civics…..

the rights and duties of citizenship

(Gordon Nelson, University of Waterloo)








7. New governance tools and techniques – adaptive management using a robust public-government partnership.

8. A commitment to civic duty and participation is critical.

Some Questions confronting all sectors of society…..

Do we need to evaluate our collective interpretation of, use of,and commitment to sustainability in plans, policies, manuals, and guidelines?

Do we need to re-evaluate our current approaches to monitoring and assessment?

Should we explore options for new governance tools and techniques – adaptive management using a robust public-government partnership?

How do we instill a commitment to civic duty and participation?

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MitigateMitigateMitigateMitigate

AdaptAdaptAdaptAdaptMitigateMitigateMitigateMitigate

AdaptAdaptAdaptAdapt

[Source: D. Etkin]

The End

Documents

Global Warming: Implications for Life in Ontario · 2012-09-10 · 1 Global Warming: Implications for Life in Ontario Carolinian Canada, October 2007 Responding to and managing for