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15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 0
GLOBAL VOLUME OUTLOOK FOR PLUG-IN VEHICLES AND BATTERIES
Batteries for Electric Vehicles
About
15 Oct 20191
Data Center & Reports
• Sales and share tracking
• Battery shipments
• Charging infrastructure
• Future model roll-out
• Current model specs
• Subsidies & Incentives
Consulting
• Long term forecasts
• Industry analysis
• Reports
• Special datasets
• Guidance calls
Publications
• Website Articles
• Interviews
• Conference speakers
• Social media
• Papers
Global Market Intelligence for the EV Industry
eMove 360 Muenchen 2019
Good News
15 Oct 20192eMove 360 Muenchen 2019
Picture Credit:Niklas Elmehed
“Since the first lithium-ion
batteries came on the market
in 1991, they have changed
our existence. They have laid
the foundations for a
wireless and fossil-free
society, and are of greatest
benefit to humanity”
Content
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 3
GLOBAL VOLUME
OUTLOOK FOR PLUG-IN
VEHICLES AND BATTERIES
➢ Recent developments
➢ Global sales tracking
➢ Battery volume tracking
➢ Demand & Supply Drivers
➢ Vehicle volume outlook to 2030
➢ Battery volume demand
Developments – last 12 months
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 4
❖ 2021, 2025 and 2030 CO2 targets ratified, WLTP introduction❖ Taxes and grants for more ZEV sales in SE, UK, CH, BE, DK❖ Tesla Model-3 Europe intro, 65k sales in Europe Jan-Sep❖ First model-year of: Audi e-tron Quattro (12k), Mercedes EQC (<1k),
Hyundai Kona (20k), Kia Niro (9k), all are BEVs❖ Most German PHEV now available again, after 12 month hiatus
❖ Consolidations towards fewer, more viable OEMs❖ Subsidy cuts for NEVs in China in April & June (Cars and Buses)❖ NEV y-o-y sales decline for the 3rd consecutive month❖ High portfolio turnover; 35 new models, 25 discontinued❖ Exports to Europe on small scale
❖ Big-3 and Japanese still passive❖ First MY of: Audi e-tron Quattro, Jaguar i-Pace, Hyundai Kona, Kia Niro, all
below 5k annual volume; Chevy Volt EREV dropped❖ Sector in decline now, comparing to Tesla boom in 2018 H2
❖ Additional global battery capacity of 480 GWh announced until 2023❖ Industry ready to spend €270 bn on vehicle electrification in next 3-5 years❖ Battery cost fell another 10-15 %❖ But also: Several EV start-ups in crisis, Dyson cancelled EV project❖ European Battery Alliance
Monthly PEV Sales Tracking
15 Oct 20195eMove 360 Muenchen 2019
98%
36%
57%
29%
14%
66%
4%-8%
-8%
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MONTHLYPLUG-IN
VEHICLE SALES&
Y-O-Y GROWTH
LightVehicles
GLOBAL2017 2018 2019
Worldwide in 85 MarketsAll 200 Plug-in ModelsPassenger Cars, LCVs, Light Trucks
Vehicle SegmentationBEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, MHEVBatteries: Type, Size, Supplier
Estimate based on available data
Slowing growth expected for this year
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 6
Plug-in Vehicles - Light Vehicle Markets
1 350
45
550
345
126
1 161
53
408
358
98
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400
China
Japan
Europe
USA
Other
'000s
EV SALES AND % GROWTH 2019
2018
+16%
-15%
+35
-4%
+28
1 161
53
409
358
98
648
56
306
200
52
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200
China
Japan
Europe
USA
Other
'000s
EV SALES AND % GROWTH2018
2017VOLUMES.COM
+79%
-6%
+34
+79
+89
… compared to previous years
2019 are our full year estimates
Rapid Growth – Still a Niche ?
15 Oct 20197eMove 360 Muenchen 2019
Plug-in Vehicles
Light Vehicle Markets
0,75 % OF LIGHT VEHICLES ON THE ROAD
2,6 % OF LIGHT VEHICLES SALES
125 208321
543
792
1 263
2 081
2 420
0,1%0,2%
0,2%0,4%
0,6%
0,9%
1,3%
2,2%
2,6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GLOBAL PLUG-IN VEHICLE SALES
Annual ('000s)
PEV Share
+16%+65%+59%+46%+69%+55%+66%+146%
180 390710
1 250
2 030
3 300
5 300
7 700
792
1263
20812420
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GLOBAL PLUG-IN VEHICLE FLEET
EV Population ('000s)
Annual Sales ('000s)
More than a small niche in some places …
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 8
The Global average was 2,5 % from January-June 2019
Norway
Iceland
California, Sweden, Netherlands
China, Switzerland, Finland, Portugal
Denmark, Ireland, Austria, Canada, Belgium, Germany
France, S-Korea, New Zealand, UK, USA
Malaysia, Spain, Japan
Italy, Australia, Poland
Turkey, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, India
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%PEV Shares 2019 H1
Plug-in Vehicles
Light Vehicle Markets
Consistent growth – China dominates
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 9
56 %
14 %
China 1350k
USA 345k
Norway 86kGermany 113kUK 66kJapan 46kFrance 70kCanada 58kNetherlands 66kSouth Korea 48kSweden 42k
Other 124k
Trendline
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019est
2019World Share
2,6 %GLOBAL PLUG-IN DELIVERIESBEV & PHEV - Light Vehicles
+66%+55%
+69%
+46%
+59%
+65%
Y-O-Y Growth
+16%
Rapid shift to more BEV sales in all Regions
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 10
Plug-in Vehicles
Light Vehicle Markets
➢ Taxation / Subsidies (Europe, China)
➢ WLTP (Europe)
➢ More long-range BEVs
➢ PHEV transitions (Europe, USA)
BEV China
BEV Non-China
PHEV China
PHEV Non-China
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
ANNUAL SALES BY PROPULSION TYPE
2018 2019
China 76 % 84 %
Europe 56 % 69 %
USA 66 % 73 %
RoW 57 % 65 %
Global 69 % 78 %
BEV Share in Mix
Current Best-Sellers
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 11
128
49
35
29
27
26
26
24
24
22
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Tesla Model 3
BJEV EU-Series EV
Nissan Leaf EV
BYD Yuan EV535
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
BYD e5 450 EV
Renault Zoe EV
BYD Tang PHEV
Geely Emgrand EV
SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV
Picture Credits: WattEV2Buy
Thousands
TOP-10 EV MODELS - GLOBAL DELIVERIESJANUARY TO JUNE
2019 H1
2018 H1
Tesla Model-3 Sales Vs ICE Competition
➢ Only 2 PHEVs among the top-10
➢ 6 of top-10 models from China
➢ Top-10 stand for 46 % of sales
➢ 15 % of BEV sales are Tesla Model-3
Europe +84%
USA +98%
China +61%
Global Avg +66%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1
kWh SALES WEIGHTED
0,2 1,1 2,4 4,9 7,713,6
23,0
37,0
74,1
100,4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
until2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019est
Battery Installations
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 12
Annual Shipments - GWh Chemistry Groups – GWh based
Plug-in Vehicles
Light Vehicle Markets
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
until2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191-6
Oth./Unspec.
LMO
LFP
NCA
NMC
Avg. BEV Battery Size – 5 year increase
Traction Battery Supply
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 13
0 5 000 10 000 15 000
Panasonic
CATL
BYD
LG Chem
Samsung SDI
AESC
Oth. China based
Oth. Japan based
Oth. S-Korea based
Europe/US based
MWh
LEADING BATTERY SUPPLIERS
Shipments for Light Vehicles
2019 H1
2018 H1
Drivers of EV Demand and Supply
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 14
• ICE bans in 10+ countries, starting 2025, 2030, 2040
• 200+ cities have or plan restrictions on ICE or Diesel use (LEZs)
• Progressive vehicle taxation depending on fuel consumption
• CAFE targets and penalties for underperforming OEM, more rigid WLTP
• EV grants, tax and fee exemptions for buyers
• Battery cost /kWh drop 15-20 % every year, enable affordable, long range BEVs
• Approaching cost parity: Increasing ICE cost vs decreasing BEV cost
• Diminishing returns on further ICE developments
• Autonomous vehicle and mobility services amplify BEV demand
• Charging infrastructure improvements
• Concerns about climate change and air quality
• Interest in traditional car ownership is on the decline
• Fear that ICE cars can become a liability, poor investment
• From machines to devices: mobile, multifunctional and connected
• Increasing awareness and knowledge about EVs
Rapid EV Portfolio Expansion
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 15
This total count reflects the strategic announcements of the individual OEMs where available.It is for model-series, not variants like battery sizes, 2WD/AWD versions, body-styles, trim levels or wheelbases. Please note that the sum of regional counts does not match the global count as one model can be sold in more than one region.
Predicting EV adoption
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 16
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long run."
Amara’s law – Roy Charles Amara (1925-2007)
S-Curves for EV adoption
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 17
7,19%
Sweden
40,2%
Norway
4,21%
China
2,08%
USA
2,30%
Europe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%% of Light Vehicle
Sales
0,7%2,8%
9,7%
30,3%
1,2%4,8%
22,5%
55,0%
0,8%
7,5%
24,0%
55,0%
0,1% 0,7%3,7%
17,5%
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
USA Europe China Rest of World
'000s
PLUG-IN VEHICLE SALES DEMAND - LIGHT VEHICLES
BEV PHEV % of Light Vehicle Sales
Regional Demand Outlook
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 18
Global 2015 2020 2025 2030
BEV+PHEV ('000s) 543 3 425 12 672 34 860
% BEV 60% 78% 83% 88%
% of Market 0,6% 3,7% 13,7% 36,6%
Commercial EVs
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 19
E-LCVs 2018
❑ 3,6 % of world EV sales
❑ Lower sector share than
for Pass. Cars
❑ Few entries with low
appeal, today
E-HCVs 2018
❑ 5,5 % of world EV sales
❑ Higher sector share than for
Pass. Cars
❑ 75 % of volume from large
City-Buses in China
❑ China E-Bus demand is
saturated; subsidies lower for
2019
E-CVs: 200k global volume in 2018
Demand Outlook
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 20
43226
1 001
3 113
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2015 2020 2025 2030
Global Traction Battery Demand - Annual GWh
Into Heavy Vehicles
Into Light Vehicles - PHEV
Into Light Vehicles - BEV
25%35%39%CAGR
0,6%3,7%
14%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ion
s
Global EV Demand - Annual Units
Heavy Vehicles
Light Vehicles - PHEV
Light Vehicles - BEV
22%30%40%CAGR
Supply Destination
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 21
Battery Demand by Vehicle Production OriginPassenger Cars & Light Trucks
Source: EV-volumes Forecast by OEMs/Models
China 49%
USA 18%
Germany 10%
Other Western Europe 11%
Japan 1%
To be announced 5%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
GWh
Actuals Forecast
Summary
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 22
2018 2025 2030
Models available
220 x 3 650 x 2 > 1200
BEV vs ICE Prod. cost
+40 % +10 % -10 %
EV share 2,2 % x 6,3 14 % x 2,6 37 %
Volume & CAGR
2,2M 29 % 13M 22 % 36M
Battery Demand
110 GWh x 9 1000 GWh x 3 3100 GWh
EV Fleet 5,9M x 9 55M x 3 170M
Light and Heavy Plug-in Vehicles
15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 23
Thank you!
Contact Info
15 Oct 201924
Terry ZhaoCountry Representative
China
+86 (0) 138 11 06 86 48
Viktor IrleFounder &
Customer Developer
+46 (0) 76 627 81 34
Nicolas MeilhanSenior Advisor
+33 (0) 6 74 09 56 09
Roland IrleFounder &
Forecasting Expert
+46 (0) 70 844 11 23
José PontesFounder &
Database Developer
+351 (0) 91 41 60 424
eMove 360 Muenchen 2019
Tashfin OsmaniCountry Representative
UK and Ireland
+44 (0) 790 88 74 787
EV-volumes - In Summary
15 Oct 201925
EV-volumes is a global data and information service for the electric vehicle sector. Weprovide a range of unique, high quality tracking data sets for EV sales, marketpenetration, battery shipments, charging infrastructure, current and future productofferings around the world.Our consultancy services combine the facts and figures of EV-volumes.com with ourexpertise in other areas of the automotive sector. We support planning activities withmarket studies, policy monitoring, detailed forecasts, reports and insights.EV-volumes has become an acknowledged source in public media and is a frequentspeaker on international conferences for future market trends in vehicle electrification.
EV-volumes has three founders, Roland Irle, Jose Pontes and Viktor Irle, who are allworking in the company. Following years of research and data collection, the servicewent online in December 2015.Our clients are metal/mineral miners and traders, investors, EV-charging providers,utilities, auto OEM, auto suppliers, incl. batteries, consulting houses and universities
The footprint is global: Europe 50 %, Americas 30 %, Asia-Pacific and others 20 %, interms of turnover. We are based in Sweden and have dedicated associates in China,South Africa, France, UK and Portugal, plus a network of 50 contributors around theworld. The company is independent and self-funded.
EV-volumes.com is a product of Riio Marknad & Strategi AB, registered in Vänersborg,Sweden. VAT-Nr: SE 556927 8657 01
eMove 360 Muenchen 2019