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Global Unconstrained Bond FundFebruary 2016
Contents
2
Note: This pack includes a disclaimer as well as important information about the preparation of these materials. The disclaimer must be read in conjunction with
the entire pack.
Pages
1. Company Introduction 3 - 5
2. Market Outlook 6 - 18
3. Global Unconstrained Bond 19 - 27
4. Comparison with Dynamic Bond Fund 28 - 33
5. Appendix, People and Process 34 - 43
Introduction To TwentyFour Asset Management
• Fixed income specialist, founded in 2008
• Owned by 13 Partners, including Zurich based Vontobel Group
• All our key personnel are highly skilled fixed income professionals
– Partners have an average experience of 23 years
– 19 talented portfolio managers and traders
– High quantitative literacy
• Well capitalised and profitable, with AUM of £5.5bn (as at 31st Dec 2015)
• Split across 3 business sectors:-
– Asset backed lending
– Unconstrained fixed income
– Outcome Driven fixed income
• 9 pooled funds (6 open ended and 3 closed) and 13 segregated mandates
3
TwentyFour Fund Range
4
Unconstrained(European and Global Names)
LiquidSecurities
LessLiquid
Securities
Enhanced Cash
OEIC
InvestmentCo.
Direct Lending (Inv. Co.)
OverlappingSecurities
UK Mortgages Ltd
Global Unconstrained
& Dynamic
TwentyFour IncomeTwentyFour Select Monthly Income
Corporate
Absolute Return Credit
Monument
(RMBS only)
Senior Secured (Senior Tier ABS)
Outcome Driven(European and Global Names)
Pure ABS(European)
TwentyFour Asset Management – AUM Progression
5The period 2010-2013 included an approx. £800m realization mandate for a UK Government owned entity.
Source: TwentyFour
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec-15
Bill
ion
s
AUM Growth (GBP Bn Equiv.)
ABS Segregated ABS Mandated Fund ABS Fund Unconstrained Fund Unconstrained Mandated Fund Corporate Fund
Market Outlook
6
7
Unusual Drivers
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”
2015 Revisited
• GDP: US 2.1%, UK 2.3%, Euro 1.6%
• Core Inflation: US 2%, UK 1.2%, Euro 0.9%...headline much lower
• Central Banks: Highly accommodative, ECB aggressively expanding its balance sheet, no change in UK, but US abandoned ZIRP in December
• Geo Political: risks were elevated, Syria, Fragile 5, Elections in Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Brazil
• Commodities: prices collapsed, CRB index down 14%, Oil down 35%
• China: Slowdown in growth, but how much?
8
2015 Fixed Income Index Level Returns
Rates
£Gilts -0.54%
€Sov +1.78%
$UST’s +0.91%
9
Credit
£IGHY
+1.06%+5.26%
€IGHY
-0.38%+1.2%
$IGHY
-0.51%-5.46%
Source: BAML23rd December 2015
2016 Macro Backdrop
• Inflation: UK, US, Euro all short of 2% targets…but edging higher, with headline converging on the core? Or do commodities collapse?
• Growth: Slow anaemic growth to continue but compression between US and Europe…but what about China?
• Central Banks: Remain highly accommodative
– ECB continues at €60bn a month, possibly one further rate cut to -0.4%
– BoE balance sheet remains committed, one 25bp hike possible later in year
– Fed hikes at a slower pace than expected, 2 x 25bp hikes more realistic
10
2016 Macro Backdrop
Normally a healthy combination for fixed income typified by outperformance of credit, but…
• Rates and credit cycles have become detached, already priced in
• Credit fundamentals continue gradually deteriorating, but not end of cycle
• Nervousness surrounding the unwinding of extraordinary policies
• Very poor technicals and sentiment going into the new year
• Commodity price declines accelerating
• Sharp spike in the default rate for energy companies, rest of market remains low
11
The Multiverse Index
Market Stats
Market Cap $ 45.7 Trillion
Number Issues 20,822
Duration 6.51
Yield 2.14%
Spread to Govts 81bp
12
By Currency
$ 46%
€ 24%
¥ 15%
£ 6%
Other 9%
By Rating
Aaa 38%
Aa 16%
A 24%
Baa 16%
Ba 3%
B 2%
CCC and below 1%
Not a compelling proposition
Source: Barclays Point 23/12/15
2016 Outlook For Rates
Base Rate Starting Base Rate 31st Dec 2016
US 0.25/0.50% 0.75/1.0%
UK 0.50% 0.75%
Eurozone -0.30% -0.40%
13
10 Year YieldStarting
10 Year Yield31st Dec 2016
Total Return
US 2.24% 2.40% 0.95%
UK 1.89% 2.20% -0.49%
Bunds 0.60% 0.65% 0.19%
PGB’s 2.50% 2.15% 5.375%
Source: Bloomberg31/12/15
2016 Outlook For Credit
• Fundamentals showing increasing deterioration
• Not confined to high yield
14
US High Yield Last Year Last 6 Months Last Quarter
Upgrades 197 72 21
Downgrades 394 216 115
US IG Last Year Last 6 Months Last Quarter
Upgrades 212 37 14
Downgrades 174 59 24
Source: Bloomberg/Moody’s31/12/15
2016 Outlook For Credit
• Not confined to US either
• But not as bad
15
€ High Yield Last Year Last 6 Months Last Quarter
Upgrades 99 45 26
Downgrades 174 65 32
€ IG Last Year Last 6 Months Last Quarter
Upgrades 256 35 14
Downgrades 112 50 19
Source: Bloomberg/Moody’s31/12/15
2016 Outlook For IG Credit Indices
16
• Spread widening in 2015 means starting yields for 2016 are more attractive
• Widening in our opinion has outpaced the fundamentals, leaving room foroutperformance in 2016
Source: Bank of America31/12/15
Starting Yield Spread Forecast Yield 31/12/16
ForecastSpread
Projected Total Return01/01/16 01/01/15 01/01/16 01/01/15
$ 3.65% 3.21% 169 138 3.72% 160 3.16%
£ 3.41% 3.18% 156 138 3.61% 145 1.81%
€ 1.38% 1.11% 126 95 1.37% 120 1.43%
2016 Outlook For HY Credit Indices
17
• Spread widening in 2015 means starting yields for 2016 are more attractive,particularly in $, but not in £
• Widening in our opinion has again outpaced the fundamentals, leaving room foroutperformance in 2016
• Note these returns are index level and defaults drop out of the index
• We expect the global default rate to remain in the 1.5% - 2% range, but US energysector defaults could rise to 10%
Source: Bank of America31/12/15
Starting Yield Spread Forecast Yield 31/12/16
ForecastSpread
Projected Total Return01/01/16 01/01/15 01/01/16 01/01/15
$ 8.93% 6.65% 718 513 8.71% 680 9.81%
£ 5.88% 5.75% 449 443 6.45% 475 3.60%
€ 5.31% 4.16% 521 409 5.15% 500 5.83%
Selected Other Themes
• By sector we still like banking, which is one of few sectors where fundamentalscontinue to improve. Therefore we think the growing AT1 sector will bring returnsof 5.5 - 6.0% in 2016
• Similarly we see generally improving fundamentals in ABS which arepredominantly all floating rate. Starting yields are again higher than in 2015, hencewe predict modest spread tightening. IG (excluding AAA) should return 3% and HYc.6% in 2016
• Within the developed nation government bond sectors, we think Greece may wellbe the top performer but do not consider the country investible, but the Eurozoneperiphery will deliver the best returns in 2016 as Eurozone convergence continues
• Inflation upside risk is also worth mentioning, our preferred choice would be USTIPS which in our base case scenario outperform conventionals
18
Global Unconstrained Bond
19
Why Launch a New Strategic Bond Fund?
• Client need:– Increasing client demand for flexible unconstrained bond funds with global approach. The Global
Unconstrained Bond is constructed to provide returns throughout the market cycle with independentmanagement of credit, market and interest rate risks
• Capacity:– With restricted inflows into Dynamic Bond Fund, this new Fund offers a broader and more scalable
approach, but utilises the same team and repeatable investment process as the Dynamic Bond Fund
• Competitive advantage:– Our track record in the sector and recognition from Dynamic Bond compelled us to launch Global
Unconstrained Bond
• Our investment outlook:– We are confident that a flexible and active fixed income approach will yield the biggest opportunity
over the course of the next business cycle. Unconstrained offers all of these
• Building for the future:– Our Fund launches during 2015 are part of our planning for the future. We are building for the long
term; strengthening our product, processes and controls for significant growth
20
Global Unconstrained Bond
• The Fund aims to provide an attractive level of income along with an opportunityfor capital growth, when conditions permit
• A genuinely unconstrained and unlevered long only bond fund, managedindependent of market indices
• Combining the best sources of fixed income risks from around the globe in oneportfolio
• Active management of key risks e.g. interest rate and credit durations
• Highly focused on relative value from sectors around the globe
• Value added through stock selection as well as from the top down
• Risk reduction through a broad armoury of hedging tools
21
Enables fund to be held throughout the economic cycle
22
Portfolio Characteristics
Source: TwentyFour31st December 2015
• Portfolio Size: £157.10m
• Current Yield: 5.09%
• Interest Rate Duration: 4.12 years
• Credit Spread Duration: 4.44 years
• Average Rating: BBB-
• Available in multiple currencies (£, €, $, CHF)
Rating Breakdown Sector Breakdown
Portfolio Positioning – Overview
Source: TwentyFour31st December 2015 23
AAA / Cash7.74% A
0.63%
BBB37.10%
BB36.81%
B14.12%
CCC1.28%
NR2.32%
CASH 2.48%
BANKS 23.87%
INSURANCE 16.12%
EURPOEAN HIGH YIELD 15.82%
GOVERNMENT15.24%
ABS 13.42%
IG CORPORATES10.27%
US HIGH YIELD 2.77%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
24
Themes in Global Unconstrained
• US rate hikes make us aware that risk free rates across both the $ and £ curveshave upward pressure and we need to position defensively
• Tactical use of Gilt and Treasury exposure
• Credit fundamentals have turned but its not end of cycle yet
• Consequently: Low credit duration and low interest rate duration
• Favour € denominated securities over $ and £ (on a hedged basis)
25
Themes in Global Unconstrained
• Still prefer HY to IG in corporate sector, but increasing bias towards BB
• Opportunistic allocation to US HY corporates
• Still like subordinated banks, included selected AT1 securities
• ABS performed poorly in 2015 but we expect that sector to bounce back in 2016
• Peripheral sovereign convergence, possibly revert to this being hedged
Fund Summary
• A genuinely unconstrained bond fund with global reach and active management
• Long only, unleveraged, but with the ability to hedge, a simple concept
• Seeking attractive levels of income, the possibilities of capital gain, with a strong focus on capital preservation
• Managed by same team that manages the highly successful Dynamic Bond Fund
26
Global Unconstrained Bond Facts
27
Full Name Vontobel Fund – TwentyFour Global Unconstrained Bond
Type of Fund Luxembourg SICAV
IA Sector Global Bond
Launch Date 30th November 2015
Benchmark GBP 3 month Libor
Share Classes Distribution & Accumulation£, €, $, CHF, USD
Dealing Daily
Distribution Frequency Quarterly
ISA and SIPP Eligible Yes
AMC 60bps
Estimated Ongoing Charge 74bps
Comparison with the Dynamic Bond Fund
28
Comparison with Dynamic Bond
29
Lower Same Greater
Investment Team ✓
Investment Process ✓
Type of Mandate ✓
Investment Objectives ✓
Attitude to Risk ✓ ✓
Investment Universe ✓
No. of stocks ✓
Portfolio Capacity ✓
Fees ✓
An Enviable Track Record in Unconstrained
30
Gross-paying share classes. Performance data correct as at 31st December 2015. Past performance is not an indication of futureperformance.Performance figures are shown in sterling on a mid-to-mid basis, inclusive of net reinvested income and net of the annual managementcharge and all other fund expenses. The figures do not reflect the entry charge paid by individual investors.
Performance data is based on the Dynamic Bond Fund and there can be no assurance that TwentyFour Global Unconstrained Bond willproduce the same performance.
* Inception Date 26th April 2010
Dynamic Bond Fund Performance
Cumulative Performance 1 year 3 year 5 YearSince
Inception
Class I Acc (Gross) 3.61% 22.45% 49.17% 52.36%
Discrete 12 Month Performance Periods
31/12/2014 -31/12/2015
31/12/2013 -31/12/2014
31/12/2012 -31/12/2013
30/12/2011 -31/12/2012
Class I Acc (Gross) 3.61% 6.81% 10.65% 24.20%
Source: TwentyFour31st December 2015
Dynamic Bond Fund Performance –Competitor Analysis
31
Source: FE 31st December 2015
Dynamic Bond Fund Performance - 2015
32
Source: FE, TwentyFour31st December 2015
2015 Performance Contribution
Contribution Per Sector Sector Return
ABS 0.25% 1.87%
Banking 1.98% 7.83%
Insurance 0.62% 3.52%
Governments 0.78% 2.06%
European High Yield 0.22% 2.34%
Investment Grade Corporates 0.08% 3.70%
CDS -0.04%
Interest Rate Swaps 0.19%
FX 0.01%
Other Hedges -0.45%
Total Return 3.62%
33
Source: TwentyFour31st December 2015
Contact Details
TwentyFour Asset Management
24 Cornhill
London EC3V 3ND
0207 015 8940
www.twentyfouram.com
34
Facilities / IT
Lyn FrenchKirsty Hall
Client ServiceAlistair Wilson, John MagrathSophia Papi, Bryan Bushnell
Elliot BusseyKimberley Cuthbertson
Asset ManagementInvestment Committee
ChairmanGraeme Anderson
Unconstrained Fixed Income
Mark HolmanGary Kirk
Eoin WalshFelipe VillarroelPierre BeniguelGeorge CurtisScott Crichton
Asset Backed Securities
Rob FordBen HaywardAza TeeuwenDawn Kendall
Doug CharlestonSilvia PivaLuca Beldi
Shilpa PathakElena Rinaldi
Operations
Matthew StilingJack Armitage
Michael Owolabi
Executive CommitteeRisk
Nicholas TowellFrancesco Ciriachi
ComplianceNick Knight-EvansSujan Nadarajah
Management Board
OutcomeDriven
Chris BowieGordon Shannon
Jack Daley
Corporate / OperationsNick Knight-Evans
Helen Howell(Legal, Finance)
35
Investment Committee
36
*Fixed Income experience
Investment Committee determines the key risk metrics and sector allocations for each portfolio
Mark Holman28 years *
Gary Kirk29 years *
Dawn Kendall
30 years*
Rob Ford30 years *
Aza Teeuwen9 years *
Pierre Beniguel6 years *
Felipe Villarroel8 years *
Doug Charleston10 years *
Silvia Piva9 years*
Gordon Shannon9 years *
Chris Bowie24 years *
Eoin Walsh19 years *
Ben Hayward19 years *
ChairmanGraeme
Anderson30 years *
37
Our Award Winning Unconstrained Fixed Income Team
Mark Holman CEO
28 years’ experience
Gary Kirk Partner, Portfolio Manager
29 years’ experience
Eoin Walsh Partner, Portfolio Manager
19 years’ experience
Pierre Beniguel Portfolio Manager
6 years’ experience
Felipe Villarroel Portfolio Manager
8 years’ experience
George CurtisPortfolio Optimization
4 years’ experience
Scott CrichtonPortfolio Optimization
36 years’ experience
Investment Process - Overview
38
• Traditional top-down/bottom-upprocess
• Investment Committee sets thekey risk metrics for each portfolio
• Diligent bottom-up analysisprovides the execution andsecurity selection
• Investment Committee
• Macro level view
Monthly Formal Top Down
• Macro strategy validation
• Portfolio review
Weekly Validation & Review
• Market review / outlook
• Short term technical view
• Security selection, review & analysis
• Research & monitoring
• Portfolio optimisation
Daily Detailed Bottom Up
Process in Detail
TwentyFour employs a robust and consistent investment process, incorporating both a top-down and a bottom-up approach. The top-down approach is controlled by the investment committee and detailed bottom-up credit analysis is carried out on every transaction.
Economic & Market
Graphs & Debate
Market performance
graphs
Fund performance
graphs
Daily summaries & conclusions
Unconstrained fund asset allocations
Credit fund asset allocation
ABS fund asset allocation
Distribution of overall
conclusions
Weekly validation meeting
Investment Committee¹
Top Down Asset
Allocation
Bottom Up Stock
Selection
• Monthly meetings challenging current positioning with weekly validation• Outlines current global macro economic picture as well as market technical sentiment and relative value• Key risk exposures determined including interest rate duration, credit duration, sector allocation and hedging overlays
Idea Generation
Analysis
Credit Approval and Monitoring
• The portfolio managers are responsible for idea generation that suit the top down characteristics of the asset allocation. Essentially selecting names that provide the best risk return profile with their chosen sector and within the chosen names, the particular bonds that offer the best relative value.
• A potential investment will be allocated to one of the portfolio managers who will then conduct a detailed analysis of the transaction Typically including meeting with the borrower wherever possible, analysis of relevant documentation, investment banking research, historical information/reporting, other third party research and peer group analysis which results in a recommendation
• The recommendation is presented to the credit committee which comprises the team of portfolio managers responsible for the relevant portfolio. Their job is to critique the analysis as much as possible to find reasons not to invest. Often this requires further work, then after all diligence is completed the team must vote unanimously in favour of the investment before it can be considered as an investment.
(1) The investment committee comprises the chairman, senior portfolio managers, head of risk and senior sales representative39
Principles
• We do not have a CIO but a Chairman of our ‘process’
• The Chairman’s role ensures:
– That there is discipline around our process
– Maximise inclusion while optimising focus
– Ensure the process continually evolves
– Ensure the cycle is flexible during times of extreme market volatility
• No ‘star’ asset allocator, the team makes the difference
40
What’s Special About Our Process?
• Collegiate approach
• No reliance on internal analysts - we prefer a combination of our own analysis plusthe ability to tap into a broad range of external research
• Portfolio managers execute their own trades - direct interaction with sell-sidecounterparts builds invaluable knowledge of the market’s technical picture as wellas maximising efficient execution
• Optimisation team ensures portfolios adhere very accurately to top down assetallocation as well as single stock targets
Our People Make our Process Work
41
Idea Generation
• Idea generation from a variety of sources
– Begins with a highly experienced team of PM’s focusing on markets they know well
– Constantly streaming markets for new ideas
– Technology plays a part, everyone has “Bloomberg Anywhere”
– Access to deep bench of analysts and strategists on the ‘sell-side’ for each sector
– Subscribe to various third parties for additional research
– No reliance on internal junior analysts- not trapped within house view
– Pinpointing security selection through proprietary ‘Observatory’ database
42
Disclaimer
43
This document has been prepared by TwentyFour Asset Management LLP ("TwentyFour"), for information purposes only. This document is an indicative summary of theterms and conditions of the strategies described herein and may be amended, superseded or replaced by subsequent summaries. The final terms and conditions will be setout in full in the applicable offering document(s).
This document shall not constitute a solicitation, or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instruments, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legalact of any kind whatsoever. This document does not disclose all the risks and other significant issues related to an investment in the investment instruments. Accordinglyyou must seek independent advice before investing. TwentyFour accepts no liability whatsoever for any consequential losses arising from the use of this document orreliance on the information contained herein.
TwentyFour does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of information which is contained in this document and which is stated to have been obtained from or isbased upon trade and statistical services or other third party sources. Any data on past performance, modelling or back-testing contained herein is no indication as to futureperformance. No representation is made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions made within or the accuracy or completeness of any modelling or back-testing. Allopinions and estimates are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change. The value of any investment may fluctuate as a result of market changes. The informationin this document is not intended to predict actual results and no assurances are given with respect thereto.
TwentyFour, its affiliates and the individuals associated therewith may have or have had interests or positions in, or traded or acted as market maker in relevant securities.Furthermore, such entities or persons may have or have had a relationship with or may provide or have provided corporate finance or other services to or serve or haveserved as directors of relevant companies.
This document is being made available in the UK to persons who are investment professionals as defined in Article 19 of the FSMA 2000 (Financial Promotion Order) 2005.Outside of the UK, it is directed at persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investments to which this document relates will beentered into only with such persons. This document is not for distribution to retail customers.
NO ACTION HAS BEEN MADE OR WILL BE TAKEN THAT WOULD PERMIT A PUBLIC OFFERING OF ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCTS CONTAINING THE STRATEGIES DESCRIBED HEREINOR THE PROVISION OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SERVICES IN ANY JURISDICTION IN WHICH ACTION FOR THAT PURPOSE IS REQUIRED.
TwentyFour Asset Management LLP is registered in England No. OC335015, and is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority, FRN No. 481888.Registered Office: 24 Cornhill, London EC3V 3ND. Copyright TwentyFour Asset Management LLP, 2015 (all rights reserved). This document is confidential, and no part of itmay be reproduced, distributed or transmitted without the prior written permission of TwentyFour.
Subscriptions of the Vontobel Fund, an investment fund under Luxembourg law (SICAV), should in any event be made solely on the basis of the current offering prospectus,the Key Investor Information Document (“KIID”), the articles of incorporation and the most recent annual or semi-annual report (for Italy also the "Modulo diSottoscrizione") and after seeking the advice of an independent finance, legal, accounting and tax specialist. Interested parties may obtain the above-mentioned documentsfree of charge from the representative in Switzerland: Vontobel Fonds Services AG, Gotthardstrasse 43, 8022 Zurich, the paying agent in Switzerland: Bank Vontobel AG,Gotthardstrasse 43, 8022 Zurich, the paying agent in Austria: Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG, Graben 21, A-1010 Wien, the paying agent in Germany: B.Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. KGaA, Grosse Gallusstrasse 18, 60311 Frankfurt/Main, from the authorised distribution agencies and from the offices of the fund at 11-13 Boulevardde la Foire, L-1528 Luxembourg. They may also download these documents from our website at vontobel.com/am.
The Fund and its subfunds are included in the register of Netherland's Authority for the Financial Markets as mentioned in article 1:107 of the Financial Markets SupervisionAct (“Wet op het financiële toezicht”). In Spain, funds authorised for distribution are recorded in the register of foreign collective investment companies maintained by theSpanish CNMV (under number 280). The funds authorised for distribution in the United Kingdom can be viewed in the FCA register under the Scheme Reference Number466623.