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Global Research
Gold & Silver Marketwatch
Strategist Contact Information Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT Stephen Malyon, CFA [email protected] [email protected] (416) 866-5470 (416) 863-7719 Trading Contacts Reuters MMCN or (212)225-6200 Stephen Abbriano—[email protected] Robert Lockwood—[email protected]
Daily Update: Wednesday, October 3, 2007
www.scotiamocatta.com
10/3/2007 14:24 - Time above charts last updated
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Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Oil WTI fut
Copper fut
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S&P 500
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1-Day Commodity Moves
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Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Oil WTI fut
Copper fut
EUR
S&P 500
CRB%
5-Day Commodity Moves
Gold Silver Platinum PalladiumOpen 730.40/730.90 13.39/13.42 1,349 347.00 High 734.80/735.30 13.47/13.50 1,361 359.00 Low 726.40/726.90 13.25/13.28 1,344 347.00 Close / Last Mid* 729.90/730.40 13.35/13.38 1,360 357.50 London Fix AM 733.15 13.350 1,353 350.00 London Fix PM 730.25 - 1,353 350.00 Handy Harman (Base) 730.25 13.315 1,353 350.00 Gold / Silver Ratio 54.7 NA NA NAOpen Interest Gold OI 1 Day Ch Silver OI 1 Day ChCOMEX 439,865 (26,532) 117,498 (308)CBOT 22,900 (308) 6,016 (69)Total 462,765 (26,840) 123,514 (377)
Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium
Close/last mid refers to the spot closing floor price in gold and silver, and spot’s last mid price as provided by Bloomberg in platinum & palladium spot All other data provided by Bloomberg. Actual market levels may have differed .
Market Commentary Gold - A day for the markets to catch its breath after yesterday's correc-tion and the ultimately directionless movement overnight. Gold opened a little higher at 730.40/730.90. Early bargain hunters took gold up on light volume as the dollar weakened, almost tick for tick with the euro despite the ADP job number at 8.30am matching expectations at 58k new jobs (a possible hint for non-farm payrolls later in the week). Resis-tance was reached at 734.80/735.30 early and gold started to fade a little as the dollar strengthened against most currencies. In a repeat of recent action, selling started to hit the market shortly before the pm gold fix, and this, coupled with the ISM manufacturing number of 54.8, was enough to have the fresh longs bailing. Only when technical support was reached at 726.40/726.90 did gold find a base. A disappointing drop in gasoline inventories at 10.30am weighed on gold in the morning but a technical rebound also helped gold despite the dollar remaining relatively strong. A little short covering and we continued to rally, closing at 729.90/730.40 Silver traded in a more steady fashion than gold, no doubt aided by copper's rally, having opened at 13.39/13.42 and hitting an early high of 13.47/13.50. That didn’t last long as there were plenty of willing sellers. A period of consolidation followed as we traded between 13.40 and 13.45 for several hours, largely ignoring gold until it fell below 730. Good support was found at 13.30 but we touched a low of 13.25/13.28 as dealers tried to force stops in silver, without success. We rebounded to close at 13.35/13.38 Technical Commentary Gold - Today’s price action wasn’t reassuring to the bulls. In addition, the MACD line crossed below the signal line providing a sell signal. However, with the longer term trend still in tact and moving averages still supportive of gold - the 4 and 9 day (738.18 and 734.45 respectively) continue to trade above the 18 day (724.95) - we continue to think the fact that gold has moved off its highs is simply a normal correction and not a reversal. In addition, today’s inability to break to a new low hints that the bulls have not completely capitulated. Consolidation could last well into next week, accordingly we are cautious, however we will con-tinue to look for further upside in the months ahead.
Gold Silver Platinum PalladiumPivot 734.04 13.387 1,364 353.67 Primary Support (Buy) 720.69 13.038 1,338 348.33 Primary Resistance (Sell) 742.97 13.683 1,386 363.08 HBOP 765.24 14.328 1,434 377.83 LBOP 698.41 12.393 1,290 333.58 Bollinger Band Upper 750.49 13.972 1,388 355.31 Bollinger Band Mid 722.29 13.074 1,325 339.10 Bollinger Band Lower 694.10 12.176 1,263 322.89 Relative Strength 14 Day 63 60 64 67
Technical Levels, etc.
Global Research Wednesday, October 03,
This report has been prepared by ScotiaMocatta and is not intended for use by private individuals. The ScotiaMocatta trademark represents the precious metals business of The Bank of Nova Scotia. The Bank of Nova Scotia, a Canadian chartered bank, is incorporated in Canada with limited liability. Opinions, estimates and projections con-tained herein are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the Bank of Nova Scotia, its affiliates, employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this report or its contents. The Bank of Nova Scotia, its affiliates, employees or agents may hold a position in the products contained herein. This report is not a direct offer financial promotion, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any products whatsoever. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized and regulated by The Financial Services Authority.
CAD 0.9979 CRB 328.90 EUR 1.4112 DJAIG 176.65 GBP 2.0325 Crude (fut) 80.17 CHF 1.1791 S&P 500 1,538.56 AUD 0.8843 US 10 Yr 4.54 ZAR 6.9363 US 30 Yr 4.79 JYP 116.65 CDN 10 Yr 4.36 as of: 10/3/2007 14:31 as of: 10/3/2007 14:31
MarketsFX Majors
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Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07
Spot
100-Day
200-Day
400-Day
$/oz
Silver: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
10-Aug 20-Aug 30-Aug 9-Sep 19-Sep 29-Sep
Silver: 2-Month Candlesticks
Gold Silver Platinum Palladium5 Day MA 737.54 13.550 1,368 351.20 10 Day MA 734.35 13.490 1,353 345.30 20 Day MA 722.29 13.070 1,325 339.10 30 Day MA 704.89 12.700 1,304 335.98 60 Day MA 686.43 12.730 1,296 346.77 100 Day MA 674.45 12.840 1,292 355.43 200 Day MA 666.64 13.110 1,257 353.47
Moving Averages
400
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Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07
Spot
100-Day
200-Day
400-Day
$/oz
620
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760
10-Aug 20-Aug 30-Aug 9-Sep 19-Sep 29-Sep
Gold: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages Gold: 2-Month Candlesticks
Silver is teetering on the edge of providing a sell signal; however it has yet to do so. Accordingly, though we are cautious and will continue to watch the MACD, moving averages and trend lines closely we have yet to turn into near-term bears.
