Global Presentation 25/11/20051. Global Presentation 25/11/20052 EPIA and its members Top 10 worldwide – 9 EPIA members

Global Presentation 25/11/2005 1


EPIA and its membersTop 10 worldwide – 9 EPIA members


EPIA and its membersEPIA members 83% of announced world cell and module production in 2005

Source: EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005


EPIA has 3 objectives:1. To become the most credible reference point for the most credible reference point for

the European PV Industry stakeholdersthe European PV Industry stakeholders. EPIA will provide accurate information, statistics and feedback to both its members and the wider audience.

2. To help shape the development of new PV marketsthe development of new PV markets both in Europe and export community. 3. To take the lead in positioning the photovoltaic the lead in positioning the photovoltaic industryindustry within the European political environment and supporting the member state association in their local objectives.

Objectives


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Yea

rly

Inst

alle

d M

Wp

DE EU without DESource: IEA PVPS


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sh

ipm

en

ts in

MW

p

Germany Spain Italy Switzerland

Portugal Greece France Rest of Europe

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sh

ipm

en

ts in

MW

p

Germany Spain Italy Switzerland

Portugal Greece France Rest of Europe

Market growth strategyMarket growth strategy

Europe until 2010Europe until 2010


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Sh

ipm

en

ts in

MW

p

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

ROW

USA

Germany

Japan

Source: (1998-2003) PV News & Strategies Unlimited; (2004) Solarbuzz

1.1. Market development Market development Historical Market Growth by Region (MW)


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Sh

ipm

en

ts in

MW

p

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ROW

USA

Germany

Japan

Source: EPIA World Market Analysis

1.1. Market development Market development and Future and Future Market Growth by Region (MW)


0

200

400

600

800

1000

Ma

rke

t S

ize

in M

Wp

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Off-Grid & Consumer on-Grid

18 % p.a.

63 % p.a.40 % p.a.40 % p.a.

1.1. Market development Market development World PV Market Size andApplication Segmentation


30 % p.a.

25 % p.a.

10 Mrd€(20 Mrd€)

80 Mrd€(160 Mrd€)

250 Mrd€(500 Mrd€)

1. Market development PV market increase and necessary investments in production equipment

300 GW/Year@ 2030

Production equipment investment [€/W]

1,5 ... 2 1 ... 1,5 0,7 ... 1

Investments per year [bio€]

0,5 ... 1

2 ... 6

10 ... 30

Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH


1. Market development



Photovoltaics

Utility peak power

Bulk power 0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

€/kWh

900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh

1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh

2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Electricity Generating Cost for PV and utility prices


24h-Energy Profile

0:00

6:00

12:0

0

18:0

0

24:0

0

Ele

ctr

ica

l En

erg

y [

arb

. un

its

]

Low Tariff Low TariffHigh Tariff

Electricity supplied by Utility

Fed-InEnergy

Solar Energy

Energy consumption of building

Electricity supplied by Utility

2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Correlation between Daily PV Power Production and Energy Consumption of an Office Building in Spain



Spot market price

PV power output

Source:

2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Spot Market Prices in Correlation with PV Electricity Generation in Germany


2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Regional PV-Generation per installed kWp

Source: European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre


Source: European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre

2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Price of solar electricity for individual user of a small PV system (<5 kWp)

• system costs: 6 eur/Wp• capital investment payback time: 20 years• interest rate: 4%• inflation: 2%• yearly maintenance costs 1% of the investment• mounting at an optimum angle


Source:

2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Price Experience Curve for PV Modules

1

10

100

1 10 100 1000 10000

MWp accumulated

€/W

p M

od

ulp

reis

0,1

1

10

1 10 100 1000 10000

GWp accumulated

€/W

p M

od

ule

Pri

ce

500 MWp/a2002

3500 MWp/a2010

33 GWp/a2020

300 GWp/a2030

Experiencefactor

15%

18%


Source: Solarbuzz

2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Solar Module Market Prices

4.50

4.70

4.90

5.10

5.30

5.50

5.70

5.90

6.10

6.30

6.50

USA in US$/Wp

Europe in Euro €/Wp

Silicon Shortage!


3.3. Technology evolutionTechnology evolution National and EU Commission R&D budgets for PV from 1998 to 2004

Source: Trends in Photovoltaic Applications, PVPS, Sept. 1999 to 20051 EU includes AUT, DEU, DNK, FRA, GBR, ITA, NLD, PRT, SWE2 EU plus NOR and CHE

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

EU¹ (R&D)Europe² (R&D)DEU (R&D)JPN/METI (R&D)USA (R&D)USD to EUR Fluctuation (Base 50 MUSD=46.90 MEUR in 1998)EU Commission (R&D)


0 5 10 15 20 25

0

1

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 25

0

1

2

3

2020+

2010+

Module Efficiency [%]

2000+c-Si

TF

a-Si-pin/pin

a-Si/µc-Si

II-VI

dye a-Si-pinII-VI

r

r

mc

mc

Cz

Cz

Mod

ule

Pric

e / W

p [r

el.

units

]

3.3. Technology evolutionTechnology evolution

Source: @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH


4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsGeneral considerations for a future technology

• double digit and stable growth

• high volume → economy of scale

• competitive profit making to the industry sectors

• global industry

PV solar electricity is a high potential candidate !

Need for local industry-political actions


4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsInfluence of Feed-in tariff on an annual PV installation in Germany (MW)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

New Feed-in LawNew Feed-in Law

Source: @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH and EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005

Feed-in Law

Feed-in Law

100,000-Rooftopprogram KfW

100,000-Rooftopprogram KfW

1,000-Rooftopprogram

(2.500x3kW)

1,000-Rooftopprogram

(2.500x3kW)


0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Others

Belgium

Denmark

Portugal

Finland

Sweden

Greece

Great Britain

Austria

France

Switzerland

Luxembourg

Italy

Spain

Holland

Germany

On-grid

Off-grid

4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsTotal installed capacity in Europe in 2004 (MWp)


4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsGermany vs Rest of Europe in 2004 (MWp)


Advantages :• Focus of customers will be on product quality and

performance of the systems for a long period of time • Investors confidence secured (attractive

rate of return for investors)• Does not a burden on public funds • No Bureacratic constraints• Appropriate Tool to stimulate Industrial Investment

4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsThe most effective support programme

Feed-in tariff Feed-in tariff


4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsMarket Potential until 2010 (2015)assuming a quick Introduction of anEU-wide Feed-in Tariff System

Source: @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH and EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005


GPSC – invited PV Industry Associations and next steps

SEIA - The Solar Energy Industries Association

CanSIA -Canadian Solar Industries Association

EPIA – European Photovoltaic Industry Association

TPIA - Taiwan PV Industry Association

BCSE - Australian Business Council for Sustainable Energy

JPEA – The Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association

Creia- Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association

NZPVA - New Zealand Photovoltaic Association

KPDO - Korean Photovoltaics Development Organization

GPSC06 June 200506 June 2005 Barcelona

Documents

Global Presentation 25/11/20051. Global Presentation 25/11/20052 EPIA and its members Top 10 worldwide – 9 EPIA members