Global Outlook for Renewable Energy

Erasmus Energy Day, 29 June 2017

Maria van der Hoeven,

Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), The Hague, Netherlands

The North SeasOffshore Grid

Sustainable Diversifiation of the

EU’s Gas Supply

The Energiewende and Germany’sIndustrial Policy

Changing Energy Markets

• At CIEP we’ve been working on changing energy markets for a while

• These and more publications are available at www.clingendaelenergy.com

Solar PV in a Strategic World

The Transition of the Residential Heating

System

Continuing and rising energy needs?

Source: IEA (2016)

• While energy related greenhouse gas emissions need to decline...

• ... global (non-OECD) energy demand is projected to grow.

Four Trends

Decentralization & Consumer Empowerment

Digitization as a Key Enabler

Greater Integrations & Service-Orientation

Decarbonization

Graphic courtesy of 629PHOTOGRAPHY.COM

The Present Reality

Source: REN21 (2017)

• While renewables show significant progress and opportunities…• … it’s important to understand today’s global energy mix and RES shares.

Global Final Energy Consumption in 2015

Policy Initiatives

1. Support innovation in market integration

2. Stable and sustainable policy frameworks

3. Reduce the cost of financing and improve risk profile

Graphic courtesy of freepik.com

Recent RES cost developments

• Levelised cost of electricity from selected renewable energy sources• Figures showing Q3 2009 to H2 2016, USD per MWh

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2017) Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Biomass incineration

Solar thermal(parabolic trough with storage)

Solar PV

USD

/MW

h

A few examples…

Peru, onshore wind37.30 $/MWh

NL, offshore wind80 $/MWh

Denmark, offshore wind55 $/MWh

Dubai, solar PV29.90 $/MWh

Zambia, solar PV60 $/MWh

Graphic courtesy of www.worldmapsonline.comFigures from Frankfurt School / UNEP (2017)

Public Instruments & Mechanisms

Source: WEF (2017)

Energy infrastructures as enablers

Graphics courtesy of TenneT and Port of Rotterdam

Holistic Approach

Source: Carbon Trust (2015)

Concluding Remarks

• Consistent and stable policy framework

• Involvement of industry and financial sector is key

• Societal impact of energy transition should be addressed

• Innovation is crucial

• A CO2 price should be meaningful

The Future is in Our Hands

Image courtesy of Phil Masters @ flickr.com

Concluding Remarks

Thank youfor your attention

Maria van der Hoeven,

Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), The Hague, Netherlands