Global Oil & Gas Weekly $100/bl: the new norm for Brentpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2012/12/4/aa33... · 12/4/2012 · Global Oil & Gas Weekly $100/bl: the new norm for Brent

Equity Research4 December 2012

Global Oil & Gas Weekly

$100/bl: the new norm for Brent Despite significant volatility, it is now two years, or eight quarters, since the Brent oil price last averaged below $100/bl. With market balances into 2013 still looking tight and limited OPEC spare capacity it appears to us that Brent oil prices above $100/bl are the new normal and that the risk remains to the upside. This has significant implications across the oil industry and suggests that over time planning assumptions for the oil companies will move to reflect this and appetite for new exploration acreage will continue to grow. With refining outside the US likely to remain weak we continue to have a preference for upstream biased companies. In the oil service space we continue to prefer PGS (OW, NOK135) and Subsea 7 (OW, NOK170). In Integrated Oils we like CNOOC (OW, PT HK$21) Rosneft (OW, PT $10) and in the E&P space we continue to like Afren (OW, PT 190p).

Risks remain to the upside: With oil demand still growing, non-OPEC production continuing to disappoint, limited spare capacity and heightened geopolitical tension we continue to see the risk to oil prices as being to the upside with $100/bl representing a likely floor based on key producer requirements.

Geopolitical risks remain: In our Commodities team’s latest report 'Drilling for oil on Sandy Island' the team highlights increased tension in three key areas. First, the Syrian crisis has deepened and is causing ever greater spill-over effects throughout the Middle East. Second, in Iraq, tensions over oil between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government have threatened to escalate and finally in Iran, external relations have become no easier after the US senate passed a new referendum to prevent Iran from evading sanctions by buying gold with local currency earnings.

Quarterly average Brent prices have remained above $100/bl since 1Q 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12*

Quarterly oil price $100/bl

$/bl

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research * Based on 4Q 12 data to-date

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies coveredin its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interestthat could affect the objectivity of this report.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside theUS who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 50.

SECTOR UPDATE

Americas Integrated Oil POSITIVE Unchanged

Asia ex-Japan Oil & Gas POSITIVE Unchanged

CEEMEA Oil & Gas NEUTRAL Unchanged

European Integrated Oil NEUTRAL Unchanged

European Oil & Gas: E&P POSITIVE Unchanged

European Oil Services & Drilling POSITIVE Unchanged

European Refining & Marketing NEGATIVE Unchanged

Russian Oil Services & Drilling POSITIVE Unchanged

U.S. Independent Refiners POSITIVE Unchanged

European Integrated Oil Lydia Rainforth, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 6669 [email protected] Barclays, London

CEEMEA Oil & Gas Matthew Thomas +44 (0)20 7773 3640 [email protected] Barclays, London

European Oil Services & Drilling Mick Pickup +44 (0)20 3134 6695 [email protected] Barclays, London

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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

4 December 2012 2

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4 December 2012 3

CONTENTS

Crude oil and natural gas prices .......................................4

Refining and marketing margins ......................................5

Tanker and exchange rates................................................6

Inventories..............................................................................7

Crack spreads ........................................................................8

Share price performance ....................................................9

Integrateds .......................................................................... 10 Valuations ................................................................................................................. 11 Share price performance ....................................................................................... 13

Refiners ................................................................................ 17 Valuations ................................................................................................................. 18 Share price performance ....................................................................................... 20

Services ................................................................................ 24 Valuations ................................................................................................................. 25 Share price performance ....................................................................................... 27

E&Ps ...................................................................................... 32 Valuations ................................................................................................................. 33 Share price performance ....................................................................................... 35

Global Emerging Market Oils .......................................... 41 Valuations ................................................................................................................. 42 Share price performance ....................................................................................... 44

The data source for all charts and tables is “Company data, Barclays Research”, unless otherwise stated. Share prices are as of 30 November 2012 at market close, unless otherwise stated.

Corporate Calendar

2012

December

04 Husky Energy Inc Investor Day

05 Aker Solutions ASA Capital Markets Day

06 Noble Energy Inc Analyst Day

07 Rockhopper Exploration PLC S1 2013 Earnings Release

12 Tesoro Corp Analysts and Investor Day

13 John Wood Group Q4 2012 Trading UpdateWeatherford Q3 2012 Earnings Release

18 PGS Capital Markets DayPetrofac Q4 Trading UpdateLukoil EGM

January

10 Chevron Corp Q4 2012 Sales and Revenue Release

11 Tullow Oil PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update

17 Premier Oil PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update

18 Schlumberger Ltd Q4 2012 Earnings Release Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research


4 December 2012 4

Crude oil and natural gas prices Japan LNG

Henry Hub Rockies Russia UK-NBP Zee import price

Date Brent WTI ANS Kern River Dubai OPEC WTI-Maya Brent-Urals $/mBtu $/mBtu $/kcf p/therm p/therm $/mBtu

26-Nov-12 111.1 87.7 107.6 109.7 108.4 107.8 (4.3) 2.0 3.66 3.50 67.02 65.10

19-Nov-12 111.7 87.6 106.9 111.1 108.7 108.2 (2.0) 1.7 3.61 3.47 66.16 64.67

12-Nov-12 108.7 85.9 105.0 108.5 106.5 106.5 (6.0) 1.1 3.55 3.60 65.46 63.71

05-Nov-12 108.3 86.0 102.8 106.6 105.2 105.2 (5.1) 0.8 3.40 3.47 64.60 62.99

Nov-12 110.0 86.8 105.6 109.0 107.2 106.9 (4.4) 1.4 3.56 3.51 12.82 65.81 64.12

Oct-12 111.6 89.2 106.7 110.0 108.5 108.2 (7.1) 1.8 3.33 3.36 12.74 64.51 63.14

Sep-12 113.4 94.6 111.8 113.2 111.0 110.5 (6.1) 2.3 2.85 2.78 12.91 60.46 60.14 15.54

Aug-12 114.3 94.9 111.5 112.4 109.4 110.3 (5.2) 0.7 2.81 2.71 12.87 54.93 55.86 16.46

4Q 2012 110.9 88.2 106.2 109.5 107.9 107.6 (5.9) 1.7 3.44 3.43 12.80 65.16 63.63 16.71

3Q 2012 109.9 92.1 108.7 109.4 106.1 106.3 (4.9) 1.2 2.88 2.75 12.89 56.86 57.27 16.75

2Q 2012 109.5 93.9 110.2 109.1 106.9 107.4 (3.7) 2.4 2.29 2.15 13.03 57.17 57.59 16.45

1Q 2012 118.6 103.0 118.2 119.5 116.0 117.3 (5.9) 1.6 2.45 2.41 12.62 58.80 58.46 16.59

4Q 2011 109.3 94.2 110.3 110.7 106.3 108.0 (9.3) 0.5 3.31 3.31 12.95 56.69 57.50 16.74

3Q 2011 112.4 89.5 111.6 112.6 107.0 108.6 (8.9) 0.4 3.99 3.85 12.47 56.18 58.15 16.46

2012 112.3 94.8 111.2 112.1 109.3 109.8 (5.7) 1.7 2.70 2.62 12.83 58.98 58.84 16.54

2011 111.0 95.1 109.6 112.4 106.1 107.6 (3.6) 1.7 3.94 3.79 11.77 56.84 57.56 14.83

2010 79.7 79.5 78.9 82.8 78.1 77.5 9.2 1.4 4.37 3.94 9.74 42.52 43.06 11.50

2009 62.2 62.1 61.1 64.6 62.1 61.1 5.8 0.6 3.94 3.17 8.19 30.81 31.20 8.91

2008 97.2 99.1 97.9 91.5 93.2 93.5 15.5 3.3 8.82 6.30 10.95 58.11 58.99 11.42

2007 72.7 72.3 71.7 62.3 68.4 68.8 12.5 3.2 6.94 4.10 7.90 29.85 30.38 6.96

2006 65.8 66.2 63.6 55.1 61.6 61.0 15.1 4.9 6.75 5.27 7.17 40.20 43.33 6.46

2005 55.0 56.6 53.7 45.0 49.4 50.7 11.4 4.5 8.91 7.15 5.66 38.30 40.94 5.60

2004 38.4 41.2 38.9 33.0 33.8 36.0 14.3 3.7 5.89 5.10 4.39 24.45 23.92 4.86

2003 28.8 30.9 29.7 26.0 26.8 28.2 6.6 1.5 5.45 1.74 3.98 19.91 21.76 4.69

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Natural Gas Week, European Gas Markets Source: Bloomberg

Crude - $/blNatural gas


4 December 2012 5

Refining and marketing margins

Date NW Europe US Gulf US W. Coast Singapore Med Eur 6 France Germany Italy UK PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5

26-Nov-12 (0.6) 17.68 7.57 5.51 0.19 14.67 9.43 20.55 20.44 8.85 17.81 16.55 10.08 39.48 7.38

19-Nov-12 (0.1) 19.94 11.33 5.79 0.55 12.93 7.12 17.79 18.23 9.02 14.08 11.35 6.39 37.60 4.81

12-Nov-12 1.27 18.83 10.91 6.20 1.44 17.92 10.43 19.68 23.69 16.70 17.74 13.62 10.85 42.52 10.34

05-Nov-12 0.59 18.08 14.00 5.83 0.56 14.57 10.48 17.84 22.13 2.53 20.29 14.03 14.37 45.45 14.29

Nov-12 0.29 18.63 10.95 5.83 0.69 15.07 8.81 19.11 20.53 11.69 17.48 13.89 10.42 41.26 9.20

Oct-12 4.28 22.90 20.67 8.68 4.91 14.86 7.92 16.10 22.80 8.87 20.73 16.45 13.12 39.83 11.69

Sep-12 6.90 25.10 16.78 9.74 8.51 12.62 3.94 17.31 20.76 4.92 12.44 14.31 7.38 27.78 5.18

Aug-12 3.83 22.80 14.52 11.11 3.77 10.44 5.04 16.99 14.60 (0.60) 8.38 13.04 4.32 21.58 3.33

4Q 2012 2.51 21.00 16.35 7.42 3.03 14.97 8.36 17.61 21.66 10.28 19.10 15.17 11.77 40.54 10.45

3Q 2012 4.73 21.77 13.32 10.16 5.12 11.79 4.89 16.83 17.04 3.09 10.22 13.08 5.65 28.02 4.55

2Q 2012 3.30 17.51 10.13 8.19 5.12 19.85 14.00 18.98 28.30 15.08 15.98 17.28 13.56 39.46 15.95

1Q 2012 0.85 16.00 9.47 8.22 1.96 14.95 12.03 16.24 21.36 5.21 5.44 2.30 1.30 8.58 (2.18)

4Q 2011 0.81 12.65 5.33 8.35 0.21 17.00 13.49 13.12 26.21 10.57 11.95 9.73 7.22 32.10 6.70

3Q 2011 1.09 22.85 4.63 9.30 1.08 17.42 13.31 10.27 27.88 9.99 13.44 13.73 10.38 21.63 8.68

2012 2.87 18.91 11.98 8.59 3.87 15.34 9.86 17.32 21.99 8.13 12.12 11.60 7.69 28.10 6.82

2011 0.22 15.02 6.91 8.49 1.33 17.74 14.18 14.27 27.47 9.01 11.65 11.46 8.57 17.26 7.08

2010 1.42 1.29 8.37 4.66 2.46 13.81 10.34 11.36 22.55 6.20 9.07 9.42 7.62 14.49 6.14

2009 1.53 1.68 10.34 3.15 2.95 8.03 7.68 9.22 11.91 3.32 8.26 7.55 6.85 9.02 1.41

2008 3.94 1.42 9.51 8.43 6.54 12.54 11.71 9.76 19.83 8.85 13.30 10.86 11.52 13.87 7.58

2007 2.63 5.72 17.56 6.65 6.08 9.32 7.87 8.10 14.90 6.39 10.56 11.35 8.99 13.02 2.39

2006 1.26 3.53 16.94 5.00 6.05 7.60 5.61 5.80 13.61 5.36 12.52 8.64 10.27 11.49 2.60

2005 2.90 4.62 14.16 6.39 6.40 6.55 4.32 3.01 10.87 4.17 9.08 7.16 8.16 8.73 2.64

2004 2.79 1.75 11.59 6.24 6.42 6.14 2.78 1.50 7.95 0.95 10.02 7.94 6.82 9.18 5.04

2003 1.56 1.48 6.89 3.19 2.80 5.52 3.67 4.41 9.91 3.47 11.93 9.70 8.88 11.07 13.08

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: European Energy Commission, Barclays Research Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Refining margins - $/bl US gasoline marketing margins - $/blEuropean marketing margins - $/bl


4 December 2012 6

Tanker and exchange rates

Date Suezmax Aframax Clean Dirty EUR/USD GBP/USD GBP/EUR USD/NOK USD/CAD USD/AUS

26-Nov-12 9,241 12,135 19,635 18,184 1.29 1.61 1.24 5.72 1.00 0.96

19-Nov-12 9,553 13,616 20,917 14,861 1.30 1.60 1.24 5.74 0.99 0.97

12-Nov-12 9,898 14,080 21,369 13,087 1.30 1.61 1.23 5.66 0.98 0.97

05-Nov-12 10,752 14,980 12,108 13,271 1.29 1.60 1.24 5.71 0.98 0.98

Nov-12 10,251 13,966 16,954 14,833 1.29 1.61 1.24 5.71 0.98 0.98

Oct-12 10,285 12,399 15,361 15,559 1.29 1.61 1.25 5.75 0.98 0.96

Sep-12 5,414 13,437 11,825 11,268 1.24 1.57 1.27 5.90 0.99 0.96

Aug-12 7,546 12,011 10,763 8,626 1.23 1.56 1.27 6.07 1.02 0.97

4Q 2012 8,773 13,321 14,886 13,959 1.29 1.60 1.24 5.71 0.99 0.97

3Q 2012 10,176 13,638 11,069 9,467 1.25 1.58 1.26 5.91 1.00 0.96

2Q 2012 20,986 16,017 18,545 10,934 1.28 1.58 1.23 5.89 1.01 0.99

1Q 2012 26,317 15,755 12,689 15,642 1.31 1.57 1.20 5.79 1.00 0.95

4Q 2011 25,066 17,402 9,768 13,395 1.35 1.57 1.17 5.77 1.02 0.99

3Q 2011 9,736 8,929 6,583 7,278 1.41 1.61 1.14 5.50 0.98 0.95

2012 17,492 14,787 14,503 12,603 1.28 1.58 1.23 5.84 1.00 0.97

2011 19,239 13,528 10,535 12,644 1.39 1.60 1.15 5.61 0.99 0.97

2010 31,259 19,745 14,956 11,292 1.33 1.55 1.17 6.05 1.03 1.09

2009 28,205 15,969 12,738 8,869 1.39 1.57 1.12 6.29 1.14 1.28

2008 78,573 50,923 37,239 25,508 1.47 1.85 1.26 5.65 1.07 1.20

2007 44,781 35,865 30,533 26,018 1.37 2.00 1.46 5.86 1.07 1.19

2006 52,931 39,338 30,758 27,227 1.26 1.84 1.47 6.41 1.13 1.33

2005 53,579 41,650 37,639 31,145 1.24 1.82 1.46 6.44 1.21 1.31

2004 74,236 49,227 39,054 29,010 1.24 1.83 1.47 6.74 1.30 1.36

2003 41,636 34,201 26,454 21,847 1.13 1.64 1.45 7.07 1.40 1.54

Source: Clarksons Shipping Weekly Source: Datastream

Tanker rates - $/ship/day Exchange rates


4 December 2012 7

Inventories

US crude oil inventories, m bl US gasoline inventories, m bl US distillate inventories, m bl

240

280

320

360

400

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

7 Year Range 2011 2012Week

170

190

210

230

250

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53


80

100

120

140

160

180

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53


US total inventories, m bl US Refinery Utilisation, % Natural Gas Storage, bcf

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53


65

75

85

95

105

Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12

Refinery utilisation Rolling 12 month average

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53


Non-commercial Paper Positions, m bl Futures Curve - Brent, $/bl Baker Hughes US Rotary Rig Count

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2011 2012Week

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Brent WTI

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

Oct-02 Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-10 Oct-12

Gas Rigs (LHS) Oil Rigs (RHS)

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research


4 December 2012 8

Crack spreads

European Gasoline Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European Diesel Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European Naptha Brent Crack Spread, $/bl

-10

0

10

20

30

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5310 Year Range 2011 2012Week

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53


European Kerosene Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European LSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European HSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53


-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5310 Year Range 2011 2012Week

Brent-Urals Crude Spread, $/bl Brent-WTI Spread, $/bl Brent Spot Price $/bl

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12

-10

0

10

20

30


60

90

120

150


Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research


4 December 2012 9

Share price performance

European Integrateds vs European Market European Services vs European Market European Refiners vs European Market

80

85

90

95

100

105

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-1280

85

90

95

100

105

110

115


75

80

85

90

95

100

105


European E&P vs European Market European Integrateds vs European Services European Integrateds vs European Refiners

80

90

100

110

120

130


75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


90

100

110

120

130

140


European Integrateds vs European E&P European Services vs European Refiners European Services vs European E&P

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160


85

90

95

100

105


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.


4 December 2012 10

Integrateds


4 December 2012 11

Valuations IntegratedsChange in

Price Target Up/(Down) cons in

Company Rating 30-Nov Price side, % 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F EPS EPS last mnth

MajorsBP U/W 432 500 16 5.3 5.3 4.6 6.1 7.0 6.4 2.6 2.8 6.4 4.2 5.0 5.3 17.0 13.1 13.8 61.8 58.6 1

Chevron* O/W 106 133 26 5.3 5.7 6.0 8.0 8.8 9.2 6.9 2.6 (0.0) 2.9 3.3 3.5 23.9 19.0 16.1 12.0 12.5 -3

ExxonMobil* E/W 88.1 93.0 6 7.8 7.9 8.2 10.5 11.2 11.7 5.7 7.0 4.1 2.1 2.5 2.9 25.9 22.6 19.5 7.9 7.8 1

Royal Dutch Shell A E/W 2090 2650 27 5.7 5.1 4.6 8.4 7.7 6.9 4.1 5.8 8.0 4.7 5.3 5.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 4.4 4.2 0

Royal Dutch Shell B E/W 2155 2650 23 5.9 5.3 4.7 8.7 7.9 7.1 4.0 5.6 7.8 4.9 5.1 5.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 4.4 4.2 -2

Total E/W 38.5 45.0 17 5.0 4.7 4.4 7.6 6.9 7.1 5.3 3.7 4.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 15.1 14.8 14.1 5.6 5.4 2

Arithmetic average 19 5.8 5.7 5.4 8.2 8.2 8.1 4.8 4.6 5.2 4.1 4.6 4.7 18.1 16.2 15.4 0

Integrated - EuropeBG Group O/W 1070 1490 39 9.1 8.3 7.9 12.6 11.9 10.2 (5.8) (5.9) (4.5) 1.4 1.6 1.7 12.5 11.2 11.7 89.7 85.0 -2

Eni O/W 18.2 21.0 16 6.1 4.4 4.0 9.4 8.9 7.8 2.6 9.4 10.5 5.7 5.9 6.2 9.4 10.5 12.1 2.0 2.1 -1

Galp O/W 11.8 18.0 53 16.4 14.1 12.4 36.8 24.9 21.1 (6.7) (3.2) 0.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 6.2 6.4 6.9 0.5 0.5 -2

OMV U/W 27.5 28.5 4 4.5 4.0 3.7 8.4 6.0 5.9 (0.1) 8.2 12.0 4.0 4.4 4.5 10.1 11.6 11.9 4.6 4.4 0

Repsol O/W 16.3 20.0 23 5.8 5.6 5.8 10.4 9.4 8.5 (12) 1.7 2.0 7.1 6.1 6.1 7.2 7.1 8.7 1.7 1.6 3

Statoil E/W 139 170 23 4.7 4.2 4.3 8.8 7.9 7.9 (0.4) 1.5 0.3 4.7 4.9 5.1 15.8 15.6 14.2 17.5 17.2 -1

Arithmetic average 26 7.8 6.8 6.4 14.4 11.5 10.2 (3.7) 1.9 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.3 10.2 10.4 10.9 -1

Integrated - US*ConocoPhillips E/W 56.9 62.0 9 5.8 6.3 5.7 9.6 10.4 9.1 8.1 0.5 (0.6) 4.6 4.6 4.6 10.6 9.1 9.8 5.5 5.9 5

Hess E/W 49.6 60.0 21 4.7 4.9 4.8 8.0 8.2 8.1 (12) (23) (5.5) 0.8 1.2 1.2 10.3 8.8 7.9 6.1 6.1 5

Marathon E/W 30.9 33.0 7 5.6 6.0 5.5 9.6 12.3 10.1 14.7 (5.5) (2.1) 2.6 2.2 2.2 9.9 8.8 9.6 2.5 2.6 -2

Murphy E/W 56.7 70.0 23 4.8 5.2 5.3 9.2 10.0 9.4 (4.3) (11) (15) 1.9 6.5 2.2 13.8 11.8 10.5 5.7 5.6 -1

Arithmetic average 15 5.2 5.6 5.3 9.1 10.2 9.2 1.6 (9.7) (5.7) 2.5 3.6 2.6 11.1 9.6 9.5 2

The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on return on market capitalisation under mid-cycle assumptions.

P/E, x Dividend yield, % RoACE, %FCF yield, %EV:EBIDA, xBarclays

2012Cons 2012

Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research. * Chevron, Exxon Mobil and the US Integrateds are covered by Barclays Integrated oil research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York. The forecasts for these companies are based on assumptions which are aligned but may sometimes differ from those used for the European companies.


4 December 2012 12

Valuations Integrateds

EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %

0

5

10

15

BP

CV

XX

OM

RDS

TOT

BG ENI

Gal

pO

MV

REP

STL

CO

PH

ESM

RO

MU

R

EV/EBIDA 2012 Average

05

1015202530

BP

CV

XX

OM

RDS

TOT

BG ENI

Gal

pO

MV

REP

STL

CO

PH

ES

MRO

MU

R

P/E 2012 Average

01234567

BP

CV

XX

OM

RDS

TOT

BG ENI

Gal

pO

MV

REP

STL

CO

PH

ES

MRO

MU

R

Dividend Yield, % 2012 Average

Free cash flow yield, % RoACE, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, %

-15-10

-505

1015

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pO

MV

REP

STL

CO

P

HES

MRO

MU

R

FCF Yield, % 2012 Average

0

5

10

15

20

25

BP

CV

XX

OM

RDS

TOT

BG ENI

Gal

pO

MV

REP

STL

CO

PH

ES

MRO

MU

R

RoACE, % 2012 Average

-200

20406080

100120140

BP

CV

XX

OM

RDS

TOT

BG ENI

Gal

pO

MV

REP

STL

CO

PH

ES

MRO

MU

R

2011 2012

Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV/b, $

-10

-5

0

5

10

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pO

MV

REP

STL

CO

P

HES

MRO

MU

R

Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2012 Average

0

0

0

0

0

1

BP

CV

XX

OM

RDS

TOT

BG ENI

Gal

pO

MV

REP

STL

CO

PH

ES

MRO

MU

R

EPS Growth 2012 Average

05

1015202530

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

S

TOT

BG ENI

Gal

p

OM

VRE

P

STL

CO

P

HES

MRO

MU

R

EV: 2P reserves 2012 Average

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates


4 December 2012 13

Share price performance Integrateds

Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4

GALPXOM

BPSTLREPTOT

RDSABG

CVXCOP

OMVENI

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

BGGALP

CVXBP

RDSAXOMOMV

STLTOTCOPENIREP

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

BGCVX

RDSASTL

BPXOMCOPTOT

GALPOMV

ENIREP

Change in USD share price over last year, % European Integrateds vs Brent European Integrateds vs US Integrateds

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20

REPBG

GALPSTL

BPRDSA

TOTCVXCOP

OMVXOM

ENI

80

90

100

110

120


75

80

85

90

95

100

105


BP vs European Integrateds Chevron vs US Integrateds ConocoPhillips vs US Integrateds

300

400

500

600

80

85

90

95

100

105


BP vs Sector BP, p

50

70

90

110

130

90

95

100

105

110

115


CVX vs Sector CVX, $

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

9092949698

100102104106


COP vs Sector COP, $

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.


4 December 2012 14


Exxon Mobil vs US Integrateds Royal Dutch Shell A vs Royal Dutch Shell B Royal Dutch Shell A vs European Integrateds

60

70

80

90

100

90

94

98

102

106

110

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12XOM vs Sector XOM, $

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104


2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

92

95

98

101

104

107

110

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12RDSA vs Sector RDSA, p

Total vs European Integrateds BG Group vs European Integrateds Eni vs European Integrateds

30

35

40

45

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12TOT vs Sector TOT, E

800

900

1000

11001200

1300

1400

1500

1600

40

50

60

7080

90

100

110

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12BG vs Sector BG, p

10

12

14

16

18

20

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12ENI vs Sector ENI, E

Galp vs European Integrateds Repsol vs European Integrateds Statoil vs European Integrateds

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12GALP vs Sector GALP, E

8

12

16

20

24

28

40

60

80

100

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12REP vs Sector REP, E

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

80

90

100

110

120

130

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12STL vs Sector STL, NOK

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.


4 December 2012 15


BP vs Total BP vs Shell Total vs Eni

80

85

90

95

100

105


85

90

95

100

105


85

90

95

100

105


Total vs Shell BG vs Statoil Eni vs Repsol

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


70

80

90

100

110

120


100

120

140

160

180

200


OMV vs Repsol BG vs Eni Eni vs Statoil

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


70

80

90

100

110


80

90

100

110

120

130


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research


4 December 2012 16

Share price performance Integrateds Local Price

30-Nov -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11 3Q 11 2Q 11

Indices & marketsFTSE All 3065 -0.1 1.0 5.7 -0.4 0.8 1.5 10.6 6.8 -5.5 8.0 7.4 -17.4 32.3StoxxEuro 255 0.1 1.4 8.6 1.0 3.1 5.5 13.1 9.3 -12.7 12.3 1.7 -29.4 34.9S&P 500 1416 0.0 0.5 4.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.7 12.6 5.8 -3.3 12.0 11.2 -15.5 28.6MSCI EMG 1556 0.1 1.2 6.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 10.1 6.1 -8.4 10.0 2.9 -20.0 27.7Hang Seng 22030 0.5 0.5 4.1 2.2 1.8 5.8 19.8 7.3 -5.3 11.5 5.0 -21.5 11.5

Integrated - MajorsBP 432 0.1 -0.8 4.8 -4.2 -3.2 -1.9 -3.4 6.5 -10.5 3.3 18.3 -17.9 48.6Chevron 106 -0.1 0.2 3.2 -6.8 -4.1 -9.3 -0.7 10.5 -1.6 0.8 14.9 -11.0 52.4ExxonMobil 88.1 0.0 -1.1 2.0 -4.4 -3.3 -3.6 4.0 6.9 -1.3 2.3 16.7 -11.4 43.8Royal Dutch Shell A 25.8 0.1 0.4 4.0 -3.0 -2.2 -3.1 -8.3 2.5 -3.4 -4.3 17.5 -12.7 44.3Royal Dutch Shell B 2155 -0.2 0.1 3.9 -2.2 -2.2 -2.7 -9.5 1.7 -0.7 -7.9 21.7 -12.7 52.0Total 38.5 0.0 0.0 6.5 -3.0 -0.5 0.8 -2.4 10.2 -11.5 -0.7 15.0 -22.9 29.4Arithmetic Average 0.0 -0.2 4.1 -3.9 -2.6 -3.3 -3.4 6.4 -4.8 -1.1 17.3 -14.8 45.1

Integrated - EuropeBG Group 1070 -0.8 -0.5 8.2 -20.8 -7.2 -15.0 -19.8 -1.0 -11.9 8.2 10.6 -15.6 49.9Eni 18.2 -0.4 1.3 8.5 2.7 3.0 8.0 13.8 2.8 -9.1 12.7 17.2 -25.7 29.1Galp 11.8 0.6 -4.6 2.7 -10.2 -4.2 -5.6 3.8 27.9 -22.8 11.2 -19.9 -21.7 57.0OMV 27.5 0.6 1.3 6.2 -3.2 -2.2 2.0 17.5 11.5 -11.4 16.6 0.7 -30.9 45.7Repsol 16.3 -1.4 -2.1 6.7 4.4 6.2 9.3 -28.0 21.0 -33.1 -18.7 14.9 -23.4 68.5Statoil 139 -0.2 -1.0 4.3 -5.2 -0.9 -5.3 -4.9 8.6 -12.2 5.4 18.9 -16.0 35.4Arithmetic Average -0.3 -1.0 6.1 -5.4 -0.9 -1.1 -3.0 11.8 -16.7 5.9 7.1 -22.2 47.6

Integrated - USConocoPhillips 56.9 -0.1 0.5 3.5 -0.9 -1.6 -0.4 2.5 2.3 -3.6 4.3 15.1 -16.6 53.9Hess 49.6 -1.8 -3.0 1.4 -8.6 -5.1 -7.7 -12.7 23.6 -26.3 3.8 8.3 -30.4 49.6Husky Energy 27.9 0.5 1.8 7.6 1.8 3.7 4.5 16.4 7.6 -1.7 5.3 10.7 -20.3 14.9Imperial Oil 42.4 -2.1 -2.6 -1.5 -6.6 -3.6 -7.3 -4.4 10.1 -7.9 1.7 23.4 -22.6 27.7Marathon 30.9 0.5 -3.4 0.0 0.8 2.6 4.3 5.4 15.6 -19.3 8.3 35.6 -34.5 70.8Murphy 56.7 -0.6 -2.9 0.9 -8.8 -5.4 5.7 1.8 6.8 -10.6 1.0 26.2 -33.6 34.2Suncor 32.5 -1.3 -3.0 4.0 -4.1 -2.6 -0.6 13.3 13.8 -11.4 13.0 12.4 -34.6 33.0Arithmetic Average -0.7 -1.8 2.3 -3.8 -1.7 -0.2 3.2 11.4 -11.5 5.3 18.8 -27.5 40.6

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for

companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted

average for our coverage.


4 December 2012 17

Refiners


4 December 2012 18

Valuations RefinersChange in



Refiners - EuropeERG E/W 5.38 7.0 30 11.9 10.2 9.4 (17) 49.4 29.1 (25) (2.1) 1.2 7.4 7.4 7.4 (4.3) 6.3 7.0 0.11 0.07 0

Essar Energy O/W 120 180 50 16.5 16.0 10.5 16.2 13.6 6.3 (85) (105) (60) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 7.2 9.3 8.81 9.97 0

Hellenic E/W 6.40 6.00 (6) 9.9 9.2 8.5 14.1 16.1 13.7 6.4 (0.2) 9.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 5.2 4.5 4.8 0.40 0.76 -4

Grupa Lotos E/W 37.8 34.0 (10) 27.8 12.3 9.2 (40) 27.5 11.0 5.0 (0.5) 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.4 1.37 3.65 29

MOL E/W 18370 22500 22 5.5 5.1 4.3 5.4 6.1 5.9 6.8 16.8 19.5 2.3 2.5 5.1 11.2 9.8 11.4 3013 2132 3

Motor Oil O/W 7.61 9.5 25 6.4 8.1 7.8 5.3 6.7 6.3 (34) 17.2 18.2 6.6 6.6 6.6 13.4 10.8 10.7 1.13 1.22 -2

Neste Oil E/W 9.82 12.0 22 11.7 7.3 6.8 33.9 10.2 8.9 (8.8) 7.6 10.2 3.6 4.6 5.1 3.1 6.5 6.8 0.97 0.82 12

ORL E/W 1.95 2.50 28 11.8 9.2 8.9 15.1 8.1 7.8 (0.7) 5.0 6.0 5.0 9.2 9.6 6.2 8.3 8.4 0.24 0.11 0

PKN Orlen U/W 45.7 40.0 (12) 4.7 5.9 5.5 25.6 13.4 15.8 4.2 7.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 5.7 5.5 3.41 4.84 16

Saras U/W 0.94 0.85 (9) 6.1 6.6 4.7 (47) (90) 12.3 (13) 9.0 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.2 5.2 -0.01 -0.02 0

Tupras O/W 47.7 50.5 6 7.0 8.6 8.9 7.5 8.9 8.3 (0) (19) (23) 8.0 8.2 7.8 39.4 39.4 22.2 5.35 4.60 6

Arithmetic average 13 10.8 8.9 7.7 1.8 6.4 11.4 (13) (5.8) 0.9 3.6 4.1 4.4 8.8 9.2 8.7 6

Refiners - US*Alon USA Energy U/W 14.2 14.0 (2) 8.9 5.3 5.4 28.5 6.8 9.5 (6.0) 21.8 18.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 5.0 13.4 10.4 2.10 1.98 22

Delek US Holdings O/W 26.3 30.0 14 6.7 3.5 4.4 10.2 4.8 7.6 3.3 17.0 10.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 19.9 36.0 36.0 5.50 4.56 0

Tesoro O/W 42.3 84.0 99 6.2 3.4 3.7 10.7 5.5 6.6 6.2 11.5 8.9 0.0 0.6 2.4 13.5 25.1 20.1 7.65 6.98 4

Valero O/W 32.3 63.0 95 6.7 5.0 5.5 9.5 6.6 8.6 5.7 16.3 9.3 0.9 2.0 3.1 10.1 12.8 9.8 4.90 4.70 5

Arithmetic average 52 7.1 4.3 4.7 14.7 5.9 8.1 2.3 16.6 11.9 0.8 1.4 2.2 12.1 21.8 19.1 8

The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on an assumed discount to the estimated greenfield replacement value.

RoACE, %Barclays

2012Cons 2012

Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research. *The US Refiners are covered by Barclays Integrated oil research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York.

Dividend yield, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, %


4 December 2012 19

Valuations Refiners


05

1015202530

ERG

ESSR

HEP

LOT

MO

L

MO

H

NES

T

ORL

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


-20

-10

0

10

20

ERG

ESSR

HEP

LOT

MO

L

MO

H

NES

T

ORL

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO

P/E 2012 Average

0

2

4

6

8

10

ERG

ESSR

HEP

LOT

MO

L

MO

H

NES

T

ORL

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO



-20

-10

0

10

20

30

ERG

ESSR

HEP

LOT

MO

L

MO

H

NES

T

ORL

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


-20-10

010203040

ERG

ESSR

HEP

LOT

MO

L

MO

H

NES

T

ORL

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


-500

50100150200250

ERG

ESSR

HEP

LOT

MO

L

MO

H

NES

T

ORL

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO

2011 2012

Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV: Capital employed, x

-20

30

80

130

180

ERG

ESSR

HEP

LOT

MO

L

MO

H

NES

T

OR

L

PKN

SRS

TU

P

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


-100%-50%

0%50%

100%150%200%

ERG

ESSR

HEP

LOT

MO

L

MO

H

NES

T

OR

L

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

ERG

ESSR

HEP

LOT

MO

L

MO

H

NES

T

ORL

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO

EV/Capital Employed 2012 Average

Source: Datastream, Barclays estimates


4 December 2012 20

Share price performance Refiners


-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

ELPEESSRBrent

CEPNES1V

SRSMOLERG

SectorPKNORL

MOHTUPRS

LTS

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

SRSESSRMOLERG

ELPECEP

NES1VBrent

SectorORL

TUPRSPKNLTS

MOH

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

BrentCEPERGSRS

MOLTUPRSNES1V

ELPEESSR

SectorPKNORLLTS

MOH

Change in USD share price over last year, % European Refiners vs Brent European Refiners vs US Refiners

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

ESSRERGSRS

SectorORLCEP

ELPEMOLBrent

NES1VTUPRS

PKNMOH

LTS

6065707580859095

100105


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120


ERG vs European Refiners Essar vs European Refiners Hellenic Petroleum vs European Refiners

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

40

60

80

100

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12ERG vs Sector ERG, E

50

200

350

500

650

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12ESSAR vs Sector ESSR, p

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

70

90

110

130

150

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12ELPE vs Sector ELPE, E



4 December 2012 21


Lotos Group vs European Refiners MOL vs European Refiners Motor Oil vs European Refiners

5

15

25

35

45

55

80

100

120

140

160

180

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12LTS vs Sector LTS, PLN

10000

20000

30000

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12MOL vs Sector MOL, HUF

2

4

6

8

10

50

70

90

110

130

150

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12MOH vs Sector MOH, E

Neste Oil vs European Refiners ORL vs European Refiners PKN Orlen vs European Refiners

4

8

12

16

20

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12NES1V vs Sector NES1V, E

100

150

200

250

300

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12ORL vs Sector ORL, ILS

25

35

45

55

65

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12PKN vs Sector PKN, PLN

Saras vs European Refiners Tupras vs European Refiners

0.5

0.9

1.3

1.7

2.1

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12SRS vs Sector SRS, E

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

80

100

120

140

160

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12Tupras vs Sector TUPRS, TRY



4 December 2012 22


PKN Orlen vs Lotos Group MOL vs PKN Orlen MOL vs OMV

60

70

80

90

100

110


70

80

90

100

110

120


70

80

90

100

110


Saras vs ERG Saras vs Neste Neste vs Tupras

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


70

80

90

100

110

120


70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Tupras vs Saras Hellenic vs Motor Oil Essar vs Neste

60

80

100

120

140

160


70

80

90

100

110

120

130


30

50

70

90

110

130


Source: Datastream, Barclays.


4 December 2012 23

Share price performance RefinersLocal Price


Indices & marketsFTSE All 3065 -0.1 1.0 5.7 -0.4 0.8 1.5 10.6 6.8 -5.5 8.0 7.4 -17.4 32.3StoxxEuro 255 0.1 1.4 8.6 1.0 3.1 5.5 13.1 9.3 -12.7 12.3 1.7 -29.4 34.9S&P 500 1416 0.0 0.5 4.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.7 12.6 5.8 -3.3 12.0 11.2 -15.5 28.6MSCI EMG 1556 0.1 1.2 6.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 10.1 6.1 -8.4 10.0 2.9 -20.0 27.7Refiners - EuropeERG 5.38 0.0 3.3 12.0 -6.8 -3.2 -3.2 -38.6 14.5 -28.6 -22.4 1.7 -17.8 14.4Essar Energy 120 0.6 -1.1 1.7 -9.4 -13.0 3.5 -28.0 -3.1 -22.9 -6.9 -31.9 -41.4 -6.0Hellenic 6.40 -1.3 -4.6 6.0 -5.8 6.4 -0.5 0.7 39.6 -22.5 -6.6 4.8 -17.5 28.4Grupa Lotos 37.8 -0.3 8.6 11.7 25.7 13.4 21.8 76.0 17.2 -4.3 28.7 -11.5 -53.8 94.1MOL 18370 3.5 6.2 7.0 -3.7 -2.2 2.5 18.7 14.5 -12.9 16.1 5.0 -41.6 36.3Motor Oil 7.61 -6.1 -0.4 11.5 9.9 15.6 29.3 30.8 13.4 -15.6 5.7 -2.8 -34.5 32.9Neste Oil 9.82 0.0 0.5 12.8 -4.9 2.2 -2.6 26.1 16.8 -8.6 21.4 15.6 -44.5 8.3ORL 1.95 0.4 6.2 17.2 7.2 6.4 26.4 0.6 -18.1 -14.6 13.7 6.3 -31.4 60.4PKN Orlen 45.7 -4.5 0.3 7.1 8.5 5.4 1.8 46.4 26.7 -6.4 21.3 -11.0 -42.3 77.3Saras 0.94 0.5 2.7 13.5 -7.1 -8.8 -4.0 -2.9 30.1 -27.0 6.5 -8.0 -37.2 2.7Tupras 47.7 2.0 8.7 9.7 12.0 9.4 17.0 26.1 6.7 -16.2 20.5 2.3 -16.0 32.7Arithmetic Average -0.5 2.8 10.0 2.3 2.9 8.4 14.2 14.4 -16.3 8.9 -2.7 -34.4 34.7

Refiners - USAlon 14.2 0.1 0.9 8.7 8.4 8.3 3.8 63.3 61.9 -6.5 3.9 42.1 -44.1 86.9Delek 26.3 0.8 -0.4 2.5 4.7 2.0 3.1 130.2 44.9 13.4 35.9 1.2 -28.5 114.2HollyFrontier 45.3 0.2 -0.3 6.5 18.7 17.3 9.8 93.7 16.5 10.2 37.4 -10.8 -27.0 169.8Marathon Petroleum 59.5 0.2 0.9 9.6 8.4 8.4 9.1 78.9 21.5 3.6 30.2 23.0 -35.9 NASunCoke Energy 16.3 -1.3 -0.6 3.0 -1.9 1.1 0.8 45.1 10.0 3.1 26.9 1.8 NA NATesoro 42.3 1.7 0.9 11.1 10.8 12.1 0.9 81.0 67.9 -7.0 14.9 20.0 -15.6 107.1Valero 32.3 0.1 1.1 9.9 9.2 10.9 1.8 53.3 31.2 -6.3 22.4 18.4 -31.1 48.1Arithmetic Average 0.2 0.4 7.3 8.3 8.6 4.2 77.9 36.3 1.5 24.5 13.7 -30.4 105.2

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies

under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.


4 December 2012 24

Services


4 December 2012 25

Valuations ServicesChange in



Services - EuropeAker Solutions U/W 107 130 22 10.0 9.2 7.6 36.0 13.7 9.4 (1.8) (6.7) 7.8 3.7 3.9 5.3 6.3 12.0 13.8 7.79 8.16 1

Amec U/W 1044 1320 26 13.3 13.1 9.7 14.8 13.3 10.3 4.4 6.5 9.6 2.9 3.4 4.4 16.8 19.8 25.0 78.69 77.47 0

CGG Veritas E/W 23.5 29.5 26 9.5 7.4 4.5 nm 27.4 10.3 1.9 2.6 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 4.5 9.4 0.85 1.24 -7

Dockwise E/W 17.0 17.0 0 5.6 4.9 4.4 304.3 16.5 6.1 (4.6) (18) 24.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.4 9.3 1.33 0.94 2

Hunting O/W 814 1060 30 16.9 11.3 9.4 21.0 14.3 12.4 (1.6) 3.3 7.6 1.8 2.4 2.8 7.1 9.3 10.6 57.00 58.13 1

Petrofac U/W 1628 1900 17 13.9 11.6 10.1 16.4 14.0 11.8 9.1 (6.2) (1.4) 2.1 2.4 3.0 52.3 46.0 41.4 1.83 1.86 0

Polarcus O/W 5.7 10.8 88 14.8 7.1 3.7 (12) 18.3 3.6 (13) (7.4) 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.06 0.06 0

PGS O/W 95.0 135 42 16.2 10.3 6.5 nm 17.4 8.0 (0.1) 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.3 3.6 9.4 16.3 0.96 0.94 9

Saipem O/W 34.2 46.0 34 11.2 10.0 9.4 16.4 15.1 15.1 2.6 5.2 7.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 12.4 12.3 12.1 2.27 2.29 -1

SBM Offshore O/W 8.6 12.3 43 3.4 4.4 5.0 (4.3) 4.8 3.6 (13) (26) (23) 0.0 0.0 13.9 (11) (11) 12.5 1.80 1.78 -2

Subsea 7 O/W 130 170 31 9.6 8.6 8.1 19.1 15.6 15.7 (0.7) 0.9 6.3 2.6 1.8 1.7 7.5 7.5 8.0 1.46 1.58 2

Technip E/W 89.3 102 14 11.6 11.5 8.7 20.3 19.6 15.0 3.0 5.3 6.3 1.8 1.8 2.1 9.1 9.9 12.5 4.55 4.61 -1

Tecnicas Reunidas E/W 35.8 43.5 22 12.7 11.9 10.2 14.7 14.3 13.0 15.4 6.1 9.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 32.9 32.6 31.4 2.51 2.49 0

TGS U/W 180 225 25 7.0 4.4 4.0 19.3 11.7 10.4 5.8 4.6 5.8 3.3 4.8 5.3 18.1 26.3 25.3 2.71 2.62 1

Wood Group O/W 777 1000 29 1.9 11.9 9.2 18.0 14.5 11.2 0.9 3.5 9.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 14.4 14.4 16.9 0.54 0.54 0

Arithmetic average 36 9.8 3.4 7.1 34.6 14.2 9.9 (10) (12) 7.7 1.6 1.7 4.1 8.0 12.1 16.1 17Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.

Barclays 2012

Cons 2012

RoACE, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, % Dividend yield, %


4 December 2012 26

Valuations Services


-10-505

1015

AKS

O

AM

E

CG

G

DO

C

HT

G

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TR

S

TG

S

WG


05

1015202530

AKS

O

AM

E

CG

G

DO

C

HTG PF

C

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG

P/E 2012 Average

0123456

AKS

O

AM

E

CG

G

DO

C

HTG PF

C

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG



-20-15-10

-505

10

AKS

O

AM

E

CG

G

DO

C

HTG PF

C

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG


-20-10

01020304050

AKS

O

AM

E

CG

G

DO

C

HTG PF

C

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG


-500

50100150200250

AKS

O

AM

E

CG

G

DO

C

HTG PF

C

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG

2011 2012

Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV:Capital Employed, x

-20-10

01020304050

AKS

O

AM

E

CG

G

DO

C

HTG PF

C

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG


-400%

-200%

0%

200%

400%

AKS

O

AM

E

CG

G

DO

C

HT

G

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TR

S

TG

S

WG


-4

1

6

11

16

AKS

O

AM

E

CG

G

DO

C

HTG PF

C

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates


4 December 2012 27

Share price performance Services


-20 0 20 40 60 80

PGSWGTREMT

AKSOSUBPFC

BrentSector

AMCCGGSPMTECHTG

SBMODOCK

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40

MTSBMO

WGTRE

CGGAKSOAMCSPMPGS

SectorBrent

TECPFC

HTGSUB

DOCK

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40

MTSBMO

SPMAMC

WGBrent

SUBTRE

SectorHTG

AKSOTECPGSPFC

CGGDOCK

Change in USD share price over last year, % European Services vs US Services Amec vs European Services

-100 -50 0 50 100

MTSBMO

SPMBrent

SectorPFC

HTGSUBTEC

AMCWGTRE

CGGDOCKAKSO

PGS

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


700

900

1100

1300

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12AMEC vs Sector AMEC, p

Aker Solutions vs European Services CGG Veritas vs European Services Dockwise vs European Services

40

60

80

100

120

8090

100110120130140150160

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12AKSO vs Sector AKSO, NOK

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12CGG vs Sector CGG, E

60

90

120

150

180

5060708090

100110120130140

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12DOCK vs Sector DOCK , NOK

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage


4 December 2012 28


Maire Tecnimont vs European Services Petrofac vs European Services PGS vs European Services

0

1

2

3

4

1030507090

110130150170190

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12MT vs Sector MT, E

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

80

100

120

140

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12PFC vs Sector PFC, p

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12PGS vs Sector PGS, NOK

Saipem vs European Services SBM Offshore vs European Services Subsea 7 vs European Services

15

25

35

45

707580859095

100105110

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12SPM vs Sector SPM, E

0

5

10

15

20

25

40

60

80

100

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12SBMO vs Sector SBMO, E

80

100

120

140

160

80

90

100

110

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12SUB vs Sector SUB, NOK

Technip vs European Services Tecnicas Reunidas vs European Services Wood Group vs European Services

40

60

80

100

80

90

100

110

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12TEC vs Sector TEC, E

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

405060708090

100110120130

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12TRE vs Sector TRE, E

400

500

600

700

800

900

90

100

110

120

130

140

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12WG vs Sector WG, p

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage.


4 December 2012 29


Amec vs Wood Group Saipem vs Technip Petrofac vs Wood Group

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


80

90

100

110

120


80

90

100

110

120


Maire Tecnimont vs Tecnicas Reunidas PGS vs CGG Veritas Petrofac vs Maire Tecnimont

10

30

50

70

90

110


80

90

100

110

120

130


120

170

220

270

320

370

420


Petrofac vs Tecnicas Reunidas Subsea 7 vs Saipem Subsea 7 vs Technip

70

80

90

100

110

120


80

90

100

110

120

130


80

90

100

110

120


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research.


4 December 2012 30

Share price performance Services Local Price

30-Nov -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11 3Q 11 2Q 11Indices & marketsFTSE All 3065 -0.1 1.0 5.7 -0.4 0.8 1.5 10.6 6.8 -5.5 8.0 7.4 -17.4 32.3StoxxEuro 255 0.1 1.4 8.6 1.0 3.1 5.5 13.1 9.3 -12.7 12.3 1.7 -29.4 34.9S&P 500 1416 0.0 0.5 4.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.7 12.6 5.8 -3.3 12.0 11.2 -15.5 28.6MSCI EMG 1556 0.1 1.2 6.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 10.1 6.1 -8.4 10.0 2.9 -20.0 27.7

Oil Services - EuropeAker 107 0.9 0.1 8.0 -8.2 -4.1 -0.7 78.5 34.3 -16.4 60.1 8.9 -45.6 87.6AMEC 1044 0.4 0.9 6.2 -6.9 -2.0 -9.6 18.6 17.8 -11.2 25.5 11.0 -28.2 43.5CGG Veritas 23.5 -0.7 -0.2 8.8 -6.7 -6.6 -3.2 35.9 28.7 -13.1 25.6 30.0 -50.2 107.0Dockwise 125.0 0.4 61.1 65.1 32.5 38.5 27.6 40.9 4.4 -17.2 27.7 28.0 -54.5 17.8Hunting 814 2.4 5.7 15.0 0.5 8.2 -2.3 11.9 17.9 -25.3 29.9 25.1 -24.9 84.9Maire Tec 0.36 3.6 2.2 7.5 -43.0 -41.3 -44.8 -63.6 2.2 -1.7 -34.3 53.5 -57.0 -41.7Petrofac 1628 0.7 0.0 10.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 16.5 18.3 -21.7 24.1 20.0 -23.8 40.9PGS 95.0 -0.2 -4.6 4.2 -3.5 -2.6 1.4 52.9 36.2 -16.8 33.1 7.5 -29.8 77.8Polarcus 5.73 -0.9 -4.6 1.3 -8.7 -2.8 -7.2 115.7 58.0 -30.4 111.1 -8.2 -49.1 52.4Saipem 34.2 1.2 2.0 9.8 -4.8 -0.9 -7.4 4.4 8.3 -13.9 20.9 19.7 -30.8 68.3SBM 8.63 1.1 6.3 8.8 -20.1 -14.1 -21.3 -45.7 3.3 -32.3 -1.3 17.0 -34.0 85.9Subsea 7 130 -0.6 -1.4 8.7 1.5 4.4 -1.0 27.7 17.2 -22.6 42.1 -3.7 -24.7 78.0Technip 89.3 0.3 2.1 11.1 -2.8 3.2 4.4 23.2 7.0 -11.6 24.8 16.1 -24.4 89.3Tecnicas 35.8 2.7 -0.4 1.4 -4.8 -5.2 0.0 29.2 11.5 0.3 15.4 11.5 -37.4 11.5TGS 180 -0.2 -2.8 4.7 -8.7 -6.7 -2.9 42.8 21.6 -1.9 23.3 18.2 -34.7 148.7Wood Group 777 -0.5 -4.0 2.1 -11.2 -9.0 -4.0 25.0 20.7 -6.1 14.9 20.7 -23.3 121.2Arithmetic Average 0.7 3.9 10.8 -5.9 -2.5 -4.4 25.9 19.2 -15.1 27.7 17.2 -35.8 67.1

Source: Datastream, Barclays. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.


4 December 2012 31

Share price performance Services Local Price

30-Nov -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11 3Q 11 2Q 11Indices & marketsFTSE All 3065 -0.1 1.0 5.7 -0.4 0.8 1.5 10.6 6.8 -5.5 8.0 7.4 -17.4 32.3StoxxEuro 255 0.1 1.4 8.6 1.0 3.1 5.5 13.1 9.3 -12.7 12.3 1.7 -29.4 34.9S&P 500 1416 0.0 0.5 4.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.7 12.6 5.8 -3.3 12.0 11.2 -15.5 28.6MSCI EMG 1556 0.1 1.2 6.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 10.1 6.1 -8.4 10.0 2.9 -20.0 27.7Oil Services - U.S.Baker Hughes 43.2 0.5 3.2 7.3 -3.6 2.8 -4.6 -11.3 10.0 -2.0 -13.8 5.4 -36.7 73.9Basic Energy Systems 11.02 2.3 8.6 23.0 -8.5 6.1 -1.8 -44.1 8.7 -40.5 -11.9 39.1 -56.4 321.8Bristow Group 52.1 0.4 1.6 4.5 3.6 4.4 3.1 9.9 24.3 -14.8 0.7 11.7 -16.5 73.8Cameron Int 54.0 0.1 -1.0 3.2 -2.3 6.5 -3.8 9.7 31.3 -19.2 7.4 18.4 -17.6 55.2CARBO 76.6 -0.3 3.4 6.5 21.5 3.5 21.7 -37.9 -18.0 -27.2 -14.5 20.3 -37.3 123.0Chart industries 60.5 1.4 -0.9 3.6 -14.6 -14.6 -18.1 11.9 7.4 -6.2 35.6 28.2 -26.7 249.8Core Laboratories 103.2 1.2 0.7 2.6 -2.1 -0.5 -15.1 -9.5 4.8 -11.9 15.5 26.9 -20.9 51.2Diamond Off 69.0 1.3 2.4 6.0 -2.2 -0.3 4.8 24.9 11.3 -11.4 20.8 1.0 -22.2 10.3Dresser-Rand 52.8 -0.4 2.6 5.9 -4.8 2.5 -4.2 5.8 23.7 -4.0 -7.1 23.1 -25.5 71.3Dril-Quip 70.4 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 1.9 1.6 -2.1 6.9 9.6 0.9 -1.2 22.1 -21.8 54.1ENSCO 58.2 2.1 1.7 6.5 -1.3 0.7 6.7 24.1 16.2 -11.3 12.8 16.1 -23.6 32.7Exterran Holdings 20.9 0.1 3.4 6.6 1.0 4.5 2.9 129.3 59.1 -3.3 44.9 -6.4 -51.5 -23.5FMC Tech 40.9 -0.8 -2.1 1.6 -7.9 -0.1 -11.7 -21.8 18.0 -22.2 -3.5 38.9 -15.5 67.7Global Geophysical 4.21 -1.6 5.8 8.8 -15.6 -8.7 -23.6 -37.4 -10.0 -42.3 57.9 -15.7 -54.8 159.5Gulfmark Offshore 31.3 0.5 6.4 13.5 -1.3 -3.0 -5.1 -25.4 -2.9 -25.9 9.4 15.6 -19.2 63.8Halliburton 33.4 1.3 4.0 9.5 -4.7 3.3 -1.0 -3.4 18.7 -14.5 -3.8 13.1 -40.5 104.2Helmerich & Payne 52.2 1.6 1.2 4.6 4.0 9.2 9.6 -10.6 9.5 -19.4 -7.6 43.7 -39.8 81.3Hercules Offshore 5.16 2.5 11.3 14.3 2.5 8.5 5.7 16.1 37.7 -25.2 6.5 52.6 -47.5 124.9Hornbeck Offshore 36.0 -1.0 4.1 11.2 3.4 3.8 -1.9 16.0 -5.5 -7.7 35.5 24.5 -9.3 79.7ION Geophysical 5.96 1.0 1.0 0.3 -14.9 -7.7 -14.1 -2.8 5.3 2.2 5.2 29.6 -52.2 162.8Key Energy Ser 6.69 5.4 7.7 11.3 -7.5 2.3 -4.4 -56.8 -7.9 -50.8 -0.1 63.0 -47.7 96.5Nabors 14.7 2.1 4.9 11.7 -1.3 9.0 4.8 -15.2 -2.6 -17.7 0.9 41.4 -50.7 39.8National Oilwell 68.3 -2.9 -5.9 -3.3 -15.4 -7.3 -14.7 0.5 24.3 -18.9 16.9 32.7 -34.6 135.3Noble Corp. 34.5 0.1 0.1 2.9 -13.4 -8.6 -3.6 14.1 10.0 -13.2 24.0 3.0 -26.0 21.0Oceaneering 52.7 0.2 -2.6 -1.0 -0.1 0.7 -4.7 14.2 15.4 -11.2 16.8 30.5 -14.1 83.5Parker Drilling 4.19 1.5 5.3 12.3 -5.2 -3.2 -0.9 -41.6 -6.2 -24.5 -16.7 63.3 -25.2 61.6Patterson-UTI 17.8 1.3 1.2 7.3 2.7 9.9 12.4 -11.0 8.7 -15.8 -13.5 15.2 -45.8 142.4Rowan Comp 31.7 1.6 -3.6 0.2 -7.4 0.1 -6.0 4.6 4.5 -1.8 8.6 0.5 -22.9 78.9Schlumberger 71.6 1.4 0.6 5.0 -3.2 3.0 -1.0 4.8 11.4 -7.2 2.4 14.4 -31.8 56.4Seacor 90.6 1.9 3.2 7.0 6.4 3.3 8.7 1.8 -6.7 -6.7 7.7 10.9 -21.3 43.2Seadrill 218 0.5 -2.2 2.9 -7.9 -4.8 -1.5 14.9 10.0 -5.1 11.6 19.7 -21.2 98.3Superior Energy 20.3 1.7 6.6 10.6 -2.5 -0.1 -1.0 -28.6 1.4 -23.3 -7.3 8.4 -30.6 98.7Tenaris 15.3 -0.2 0.5 8.6 0.6 6.1 -2.9 7.0 16.7 -8.1 2.7 45.1 -44.1 30.5Tetra 7.00 0.9 2.0 17.6 17.1 30.8 15.7 -25.1 -15.1 -24.3 0.9 21.0 -40.6 46.0Thermon 24.7 2.0 2.4 8.1 1.5 -0.4 -1.0 40.4 20.7 1.3 16.1 27.5 15.0 NATidewater 44.9 0.0 0.9 4.4 -5.3 -5.6 -7.6 -9.0 4.7 -14.2 9.6 17.2 -22.3 40.4Transocean 46.2 0.4 -0.2 4.1 -4.8 1.1 2.9 20.3 0.4 -18.2 42.5 -19.6 -26.0 32.1Weatherford 10.4 3.8 5.9 13.6 -14.7 -7.9 -17.9 -28.9 0.4 -16.3 3.1 19.9 -35.1 41.8Arithmetic Average 0.9 2.2 7.0 -2.8 1.3 -2.0 -1.1 9.2 -15.3 8.3 21.6 -30.5 83.3

Source: Datastream, Barclays. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.


4 December 2012 32

E&Ps


4 December 2012 33

Valuations E&P - EuropeChange in


Company Rating 30-Nov Price side, % 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F NAV NAV last mnth

E&Ps - EuropeAfren O/W 137 190 39 7.5 2.3 2.2 18.9 6.5 6.1 (4) 8.8 6.0 45 15 (7) 190 178 2

Bowleven O/W 71.0 215 203 nm nm nm (3.0) (23) (42) (11) (9.6) (3.0) (20) (24) (18) 215 159 -3

Cairn Energy E/W 269 350 30 81.5 26.1 (33) 10.3 11.4 8.8 25 (10.1) (15) (69) (42) (32) 350 373 -1

Enquest E/W 114 145 27 1.2 2.7 2.7 24.0 6.9 7.1 25 (24) 0.5 (41) 0.3 3.0 145 159 0

JKX Oil & Gas E/W 78.5 175 123 3.0 2.3 3.3 3.7 2.2 3.2 (29) (11.7) (5.3) 1.4 5.1 6.2 175 157 3

Premier Oil O/W 336 610 81 11.4 3.7 3.3 37.5 7.0 6.8 (9) 8.2 2.2 56.2 43.3 33.7 610 495 -3

Rockhopper E/W 147 350 138 (3.5) (10) (43) (5.8) (11) (78) (31) (44) (1.0) (45) (11) (68) 350 347 0

Salamander Energy O/W 182 265 46 5.0 8.0 6.4 (0.1) 0.2 0.1 (11) (19) (4.1) 55 30 31 265 267 0

Soco International U/W 363 355 (2) 21.3 9.5 7.1 22.1 9.6 8.1 (3.2) 6.6 9.3 (10) (19) (29) 355 377 -2

Tullow Oil O/W 1377 1920 39 15.2 15.6 12.5 30.6 28 20 (0.8) (2.8) (1.0) 60.8 16.9 19.2 1920 1560 -1

Arithmetic average 72 15.8 6.7 (4.3) 13.8 3.7 (6.0) (5) (10) (1.1) 3.4 1.3 (6.1) -1Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.

Barclays 2012

Cons 2012

EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, % Net Debt/Equity, %EV/2P

x

2.9

5.3

14.2 13.4

21.7

8.8

8.3

80.8 13.8

4.0

2.8

9.9

5.9

-

-

11.9

-

25.5

0.8

EV/2P+2Cx

24.6

2.8

7.8


4 December 2012 34

Valuations E&P - Europe

EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Free cash flow yield, %

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AFR

CN

E

BLV

N

ENQ

JKX

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AFR

CN

E

BLV

N

ENQ

JKX

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW

P/E 2012 Average

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AFR

CN

E

BLV

N

ENQ

JKX

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, % Dollar EPS Growth, y/y % EV:2P, x

-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%

AFR

CN

E

BLV

N

ENQ

JKX

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW

2011 2012

-200%-100%

0%100%200%300%400%500%

AFR

CN

E

BLV

N

ENQ

JKX

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


0

20

40

60

80

100

AFR

CN

E

BLV

N

ENQ

JKX

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


EV/2P+2C, x Datastream consensus relative to Barclays NAV, % ROACE, %

0

5

10

15

20

25

AFR

CN

E

BLV

N

ENQ

JKX

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


-20

-10

0

10

20

AFR

CN

E

BLV

N

ENQ

JKX

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%

AFR

CN

E

BLV

N

ENQ

JKX

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


Source: Datastream


4 December 2012 35

Share price performance E&P - Europe


-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

JKXCNEAFR

BrentPMOENQTLW

SectorSMDR

DNOSIA

RKHBLVN

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

SIAJKX

BrentAFR

DNOTLW

SectorENQCNE

PMOBLVN

RKHSMDR

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

DNOBLVN

AFRSIA

ENQTLW

SectorBrent

CNEJKX

SMDRPMORKH

Change in USD share price over last year, % European E&P vs Brent European E&P vs European market

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

AFRDNO

SIAENQ

SectorSMDRBLVNTLW

BrentPMOCNERKHJKX

80

100

120

140

160


100

110

120

130


Afren vs European E&P Bowleven vs European E&P Cairn Energy vs European E&P

40

80

120

160

200

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12AFR vs Sector AFR, p

40

120

200

280

360

440

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12BLVN vs Sector BLVN, p

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12CNE vs Sector CNE, p

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage.


4 December 2012 36

Share price performance E&P - Europe

Enquest vs European E&P JKX Oil & Gas vs European E&P Premier Oil vs European E&P

60

80

100

120

140

160

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12ENQ vs Sector ENQ, p

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

25

45

65

85

105

125

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12JKX vs Sector JKX, p

200

300

400

500

600

60

70

80

90

100

110

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12PMO vs Sector PMO, p

Rockhopper Exploration vs European E&P Salamander Energy vs European E&P Soco International vs European E&P

50100150200250300350400450

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12RKH vs Sector RKH, p

100

150

200

250

300

350

40

60

80

100

120

140

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12SMDR vs Sector SMDR, p

200

250

300

350

400

450

60

80

100

120

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12SIA vs Sector SIA, p

Tullow Oil vs European E&P

600

1200

1800

60

80

100

120

140

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12TLW vs Sector TLW, p

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage


4 December 2012 37

Share price performance E&P-Europe

Tullow Oil vs Cairn Energy Bowleven vs Salamander Energy Cairn Energy vs Premier Oil

80

90

100

110

120

130


60

80

100

120

140

160

180


70

80

90

100

110

120


Tullow Oil vs Soco International Soco International vs Premier Oil Premier Oil vs JKX Oil

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


60

110

160

210

260


Afren vs Cairn Energy Afren vs Premier Oil Afren vs Soco International

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


80

100

120

140

160

180


80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Source: Datastream, Barclays.


4 December 2012 38

Share price performance E&P - Europe & Israel Local Price

30-Nov -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11 3Q 11 2Q 11Indices & marketsFTSE All 3065 -0.1 1.0 5.7 -0.4 0.8 1.5 10.6 6.8 -5.5 8.0 7.4 -17.4 32.3StoxxEuro 255 0.1 1.4 8.6 1.0 3.1 5.5 13.1 9.3 -12.7 12.3 1.7 -29.4 34.9S&P 500 1416 0.0 0.5 4.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.7 12.6 5.8 -3.3 12.0 11.2 -15.5 28.6MSCI EMG 1556 0.1 1.2 6.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 10.1 6.1 -8.4 10.0 2.9 -20.0 27.7

E&P - EuropeAfren 137 0.3 0.8 5.9 -5.5 -1.4 -3.3 64.3 39.1 -23.7 60.0 5.2 -50.4 111.9BowLeven 71.0 -0.4 -6.5 -6.1 -11.2 -3.6 -8.5 8.9 36.1 -42.8 52.9 -28.6 -73.2 182.1Cairn Energy 269 0.5 0.9 4.7 -6.6 -4.6 -3.1 -7.7 6.9 -19.5 10.6 -5.7 -34.9 9.8Enquest 114 0.6 -0.3 3.0 -5.6 -2.2 -1.4 27.2 9.7 -16.2 40.2 3.4 -30.0 36.1JKX Oil & Gas 78.50 -1.6 -0.5 3.8 1.3 -0.2 -1.4 -40.5 -18.9 -38.5 21.0 -17.0 -40.1 23.5Premier Oil 336 -0.5 -0.7 3.8 -8.4 -4.6 -7.0 -4.5 9.3 -15.4 11.1 4.3 -23.9 54.8Rockhopper Exploration 147 -0.2 -6.1 1.3 -12.2 -7.0 -16.0 -43.8 -30.5 -23.0 25.1 39.7 -30.5 1.2Salamander Energy 182 1.0 -0.6 2.4 -11.0 -6.0 -9.7 14.5 20.6 -4.0 9.5 1.3 -32.2 31.7Soco International 363 1.8 -1.3 5.0 7.9 6.9 9.2 28.0 17.4 -4.0 4.0 -11.0 -12.1 -1.5Tullow Oil 1377 0.2 -1.1 3.9 -5.3 -2.4 -0.3 1.3 -4.1 -5.5 12.0 6.9 1.5 32.8Arithmetic Average 0.0 -1.2 2.2 -6.0 -3.4 -3.2 8.2 6.6 -20.1 29.9 2.8 -29.4 51.5E&P - IsraelAvner 2.43 0.3 5.6 14.2 9.0 7.9 11.7 -1.3 1.7 -18.2 6.3 38.7 -22.8 34.3Delek Drilling 14.0 0.4 7.3 16.9 10.5 9.8 13.4 -2.3 4.5 -18.8 1.5 45.5 -23.5 31.2Delek Energy Systems 1564 -0.8 2.6 8.7 6.0 3.0 1.4 -1.1 14.7 -19.8 6.0 43.5 -23.3 44.6Isramco Negev 0.58 1.7 5.7 15.4 8.1 10.0 22.5 22.8 1.3 -12.5 13.2 21.0 -16.3 2.4Ratio Oil 0.37 -2.4 0.3 7.7 15.5 4.8 37.9 7.0 -8.1 -22.6 9.1 18.1 -34.1 101.1Arithmetic Average -0.2 4.3 12.6 9.8 7.1 17.4 5.1 2.8 -18.4 7.2 33.4 -24.0 42.7

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European E&P Sector is the corresponding Euro Stoxx indices and the US E&P Sector is the corresponding S&P 500 indices.


4 December 2012 39

Share price performance E&P – US (Large Cap) Local Price


Indices & marketsFTSE All 3065 -0.1 1.0 5.7 -0.4 0.8 1.5 10.6 6.8 -5.5 8.0 7.4 -17.4 32.3StoxxEuro 255 0.1 1.4 8.6 1.0 3.1 5.5 13.1 9.3 -12.7 12.3 1.7 -29.4 34.9S&P 500 1416 0.0 0.5 4.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.7 12.6 5.8 -3.3 12.0 11.2 -15.5 28.6MSCI EMG 1556 0.1 1.2 6.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 10.1 6.1 -8.4 10.0 2.9 -20.0 27.7E&P - US (Large-Cap)Anadarko 73.2 -0.2 -1.8 4.4 4.1 6.4 4.7 -4.1 5.6 -15.5 2.6 21.1 -19.1 106.5Apache 77.1 0.2 -0.1 2.4 -11.3 -6.8 -10.8 -14.9 -1.6 -12.5 10.9 12.9 -35.2 47.4Canadian Natural Res 28.6 0.0 2.3 5.9 -8.1 -4.4 -6.6 -23.2 15.1 -19.0 -11.7 26.9 -29.7 26.1Canadian Oil Sands 20.2 -1.5 -2.3 -0.5 -4.2 -4.3 -5.1 -11.1 10.6 -8.1 -7.8 16.7 -32.3 13.7Cenovus Energy 33.4 0.7 -0.2 4.0 -2.5 -4.7 -3.7 1.1 9.8 -11.6 8.1 7.3 -18.1 46.4Devon 51.7 -1.8 -2.9 -1.4 -16.7 -11.2 -14.6 -16.7 4.3 -18.5 14.7 11.8 -29.6 29.9Encana 21.8 0.5 0.6 3.9 -8.9 -3.4 -0.6 17.6 5.2 6.0 6.0 -3.5 -37.7 1.1EOG Resources 118 0.0 -1.2 0.8 4.0 1.0 5.0 19.4 24.3 -18.9 12.8 38.7 -31.1 5.5Kosmos 11.9 1.3 0.9 4.3 1.1 4.2 4.1 -3.3 3.1 -16.5 8.0 4.7 -30.0 NANewfield Exploration 24.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 -28.7 -10.3 -22.3 -35.5 6.9 -15.5 -8.1 -4.9 -42.7 42.3Nexen 24.4 4.7 -2.8 -4.1 -3.3 2.9 -3.0 54.2 49.6 -7.6 15.0 1.8 -30.8 14.4Noble 97.8 -0.1 1.2 6.4 3.7 2.9 5.4 3.6 9.3 -13.3 3.6 33.3 -21.6 46.5Occidental 75.2 -1.4 -1.3 1.9 -10.8 -4.7 -12.6 -19.7 0.3 -9.9 1.6 31.0 -32.2 35.6QEP Resources 28.1 -0.3 -2.0 5.4 -11.5 -3.0 -11.2 -4.0 5.6 -1.7 4.1 8.2 -36.6 42.7Pioneer Natural 107 0.3 -0.9 4.1 1.6 1.3 2.5 19.6 18.4 -21.0 24.7 36.0 -27.0 52.0Range Resources 64.0 -2.5 -8.2 -4.6 -7.0 -2.1 -8.4 3.4 12.9 6.4 -6.1 6.0 3.7 38.1Southwestern Energy 34.7 -1.8 -5.2 -2.6 -1.5 0.0 -0.2 8.7 8.9 4.3 -4.2 -4.2 -23.9 10.4Talisman 11.2 -3.4 -4.3 2.1 -14.5 -0.6 -15.7 -11.7 16.7 -8.8 -1.6 3.1 -40.0 35.6Ultra Petroleum 20.1 -1.3 -11.6 -7.9 -16.0 -12.1 -8.8 -32.3 -4.7 1.9 -23.6 6.9 -40.0 2.9WPX Energy 15.8 -0.8 -4.5 2.7 -10.7 -6.8 -4.8 -13.1 2.5 -10.2 -0.9 NA NA NAArithmetic Average -0.3 -2.2 1.4 -7.1 -2.8 -5.3 -3.1 10.1 -9.5 2.4 13.4 -29.2 33.2



4 December 2012 40

Share price performance E&P – US (Mid Cap) Local Price


Indices & marketsFTSE All 3065 -0.1 1.0 5.7 -0.4 0.8 1.5 10.6 6.8 -5.5 8.0 7.4 -17.4 32.3StoxxEuro 255 0.1 1.4 8.6 1.0 3.1 5.5 13.1 9.3 -12.7 12.3 1.7 -29.4 34.9S&P 500 1416 0.0 0.5 4.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.7 12.6 5.8 -3.3 12.0 11.2 -15.5 28.6MSCI EMG 1556 0.1 1.2 6.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 10.1 6.1 -8.4 10.0 2.9 -20.0 27.7E&P - US (Mid-Cap)ARC Resources 24.9 0.5 1.2 8.2 -0.4 3.2 3.1 1.6 8.1 -2.0 -7.1 13.9 -16.7 39.7Baytex Energy 44.1 -0.9 -3.5 0.3 -7.6 -2.4 -6.5 -20.7 12.9 -18.8 -7.4 33.1 -23.3 82.8Bonavista Energy 16.5 2.5 1.4 4.9 -10.9 -7.4 -6.4 -35.2 13.5 -22.7 -21.1 13.2 -23.8 38.1Chesapeake 17.0 -2.9 -4.5 2.5 -18.2 -15.9 -9.8 -23.6 1.5 -19.7 3.9 -12.8 -15.1 42.6Cimarex 60.1 -0.8 -4.6 -1.0 -3.7 5.1 2.7 -2.9 6.2 -27.0 21.9 11.1 -38.6 28.2Comstock 16.4 -0.4 -3.3 2.1 -17.8 -4.2 -10.8 7.2 11.9 3.7 3.5 -1.0 -46.8 5.3Concho Resources 80.3 -0.2 -1.2 1.4 -13.1 -6.8 -15.3 -14.4 11.3 -16.6 8.9 31.8 -22.5 70.0Crescent Point 39.0 -0.7 -0.2 2.9 -9.1 -5.4 -11.2 -10.9 18.7 -13.2 -2.6 16.5 -18.3 32.2Crimson Exploration 2.7 -2.1 -8.7 -9.3 -31.8 -24.3 -35.8 -4.2 -7.0 10.6 45.1 33.0 -42.5 37.6Denbury Resources 15.4 0.6 -2.0 4.3 -4.8 0.7 -4.5 2.2 6.9 -17.1 20.7 31.3 -42.6 37.9Enerplus 13.3 1.1 2.5 13.6 -20.4 -16.7 -19.3 -47.3 29.1 -42.6 -12.0 2.3 -21.5 46.6Exco Resources 7.76 0.4 -4.2 -0.5 -11.8 -4.2 -3.1 -25.7 5.5 14.5 -36.6 -2.5 -39.5 18.5Forest Oil 6.37 -2.7 -4.6 0.0 -26.7 -16.0 -24.6 -53.0 15.3 -39.5 -10.6 30.8 -47.0 -0.2Pengrowth Energy 5.17 1.0 -1.6 0.4 -20.1 -13.2 -22.8 -50.7 6.3 -32.3 -11.5 16.3 -28.0 37.7Penn West Petroleum 11.1 -0.2 2.4 5.7 -21.4 -13.9 -21.4 -43.6 6.1 -31.3 -1.7 32.9 -35.5 20.9Penn Virginia 24.1 0.2 2.6 4.4 -7.1 -4.7 -5.1 -5.6 3.6 12.2 -14.5 9.1 -12.8 29.8Petrobakken Energy 10.7 -1.8 -4.4 -3.0 -18.4 -14.4 -23.8 -14.3 17.6 -27.5 31.9 94.5 -52.9 -31.1Peyto Exp 24.9 -0.2 -2.0 4.3 -3.0 2.6 1.8 4.6 30.4 15.2 -31.6 25.2 -14.4 62.7Plains Exp 35.7 -0.1 -0.6 4.7 -6.1 0.1 -4.7 -2.8 6.5 -17.5 16.1 61.7 -40.8 85.2Progress Energy 20.2 3.2 -0.6 -0.2 -7.0 0.9 -8.7 56.3 13.1 96.8 -23.1 5.1 -13.3 22.4Quicksiliver 3.17 1.9 0.3 6.0 -30.9 -18.1 -22.5 -52.8 -24.5 7.5 -24.9 -11.5 -48.5 31.8Resolute 8.54 -1.6 -0.9 6.5 -2.5 -3.8 -3.7 -20.9 -7.3 -15.9 5.4 -4.9 -31.2 29.8Sandridge 5.85 3.2 2.3 9.6 -17.1 -5.9 -16.1 -28.3 4.3 -14.6 -4.0 46.8 -47.4 80.1SM Energy 49.7 1.4 -2.9 1.4 -12.1 -7.8 -8.2 -32.0 10.2 -30.6 -3.2 20.5 -17.8 83.0Stone Energy 20.7 -3.5 -4.1 -0.2 -12.0 -12.1 -17.5 -21.4 -0.9 -11.4 8.4 62.7 -48.6 169.4Swift Energy 15.5 -1.2 -1.7 8.4 -13.5 -7.4 -25.9 -47.9 12.2 -35.9 -2.3 22.1 -37.0 40.3Trilogy Energy 28.6 3.1 10.3 18.4 2.3 5.4 10.7 -21.9 13.0 -12.5 -28.5 42.4 4.6 183.3Vermilion Energy 50.5 1.4 3.3 5.9 5.3 6.5 8.4 14.2 4.1 -2.1 3.3 5.4 -20.3 67.0W&T Offshore 16.6 -0.1 0.1 6.4 -11.2 -2.2 -11.8 -21.9 22.7 -27.4 -0.6 54.1 -48.3 184.2Whiting PTL 41.9 2.4 -6.7 -2.6 -11.3 -0.2 -11.5 -10.2 15.2 -24.3 16.3 33.1 -39.0 47.0Arithmetic Average 0.1 -1.2 3.5 -12.1 -6.1 -10.8 -17.5 8.9 -11.4 -1.9 23.9 -31.0 54.1



4 December 2012 41

Global Emerging Market Oils


4 December 2012 42

Valuations GEMChange in



Integrated - AsiaCNOOC O/W 16.6 21.0 27 5.8 5.6 4.8 8.6 9.1 7.9 4.5 (6.4) (5.2) 3.2 1.9 2.5 31.4 24.9 24.9 1.83 1.83 0

Petrochina O/W 10.4 13.0 25 5.8 5.9 4.8 11.7 12.4 9.3 6.6 4.3 7.3 3.9 3.6 4.8 9.9 10.7 13.3 0.84 0.90 0

PTT E&P E/W 163 220 35 7.3 6.4 4.8 12.1 10.1 7.4 1.1 (1.9) 7.6 3.3 4.0 5.4 20.3 20.3 18.8 16.17 17.20 7

Sinopec E/W 8.2 9.5 16 5.4 6.0 5.2 8.2 9.7 7.0 3.5 (3.8) (1.3) 4.5 3.4 4.3 12.1 9.5 11.3 0.85 0.88 0

Arithmetic average 26 6.1 6.0 4.9 10.1 10.3 7.9 3.9 (2.0) 2.1 3.7 3.2 4.3 18.4 16.3 17.1 2

Integrated - RussiaAlliance Oil E/W 52.6 62.0 18 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.7 5.0 3.2 (36) (28) (16) 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 10.0 13.5 1.58 1.81 4

Bashneft E/W 56.0 71.0 27 4.1 4.6 4.1 6.2 6.9 5.6 16.1 12.2 11.6 5.5 7.3 8.9 21.2 23.2 24.3 8.15 7.16 0

Gazprom U/W 8.9 10.0 12 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.8 4.2 6.3 6.6 6.9 18.3 11.9 11.2 1.63 1.54 -5

Gazprom Neft O/W 22.9 34.0 48 3.6 3.2 2.5 4.1 4.1 3.2 8.5 10.4 14.7 4.9 5.0 6.4 19.8 18.8 22.6 1.12 1.14 0

Lukoil O/W 63.0 74.0 18 3.4 3.6 2.9 4.9 5.0 3.7 14.8 (0.1) 1.8 3.7 3.6 4.8 13.9 14.1 16.3 12.68 13.40 -1

Novatek O/W 110 140 28 7.7 13.6 10.2 8.2 14.9 11.0 3.5 0.6 3.1 1.7 0.8 1.2 49.5 22.2 24.0 0.74 0.76 0

Rosneft O/W 7.8 10.0 28 4.7 5.0 4.0 6.0 7.8 5.9 3.3 3.9 11.9 3.2 3.2 4.2 17.2 11.5 13.9 1.01 1.02 3

Surgutneftegas U/W 8.4 9.6 14 1.5 1.3 0.9 4.6 6.1 5.4 19.2 16.3 13.6 2.2 1.8 2.1 20.9 15.6 17.1 0.14 0.15 -1

Tatneft U/W 39.6 42.0 6 6.0 4.8 4.3 7.2 6.1 5.4 6.8 13.4 6.0 3.3 3.9 4.4 15.7 17.5 17.8 1.07 1.08 -5

Arithmetic average 22 4.3 4.9 4.0 5.3 6.5 5.1 4.4 3.6 5.7 3.4 3.6 4.3 21.0 16.1 17.9 -1

Integrated - OtherPetrobras E/W 18.0 31.0 73 5.9 7.3 6.2 5.8 9.0 6.5 (6.5) (11) (7.5) 5.5 4.5 5.3 9.5 6.3 7.7 2.00 1.87 -16

Sasol E/W 375 400 7 8.5 7.0 6.7 10.7 8.2 8.1 1.9 1.7 5.2 3.2 3.6 4.2 25.3 27.1 24.0 45.80 43.77 -2

Arithmetic average 40 7.2 7.2 6.4 8.3 8.6 7.3 (2.3) (4.4) (1.2) 4.3 4.0 4.7 17.4 16.7 15.8 -9

ServicesC.A.T. Oil E/W 6.5 8.0 24 6.5 4.9 3.6 6.7 4.3 3.7 (0.2) (0.1) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 7.9 8.6 0.62 0.42 -2

COSL U/W 15.5 13.0 (16) 3.8 3.3 2.9 14.8 12.5 11.5 7.2 10.1 10.6 1.4 1.6 1.7 7.9 8.4 8.4 1.23 1.29 0

Eurasia Drilling O/W 32.6 42.0 29 8.7 6.7 4.9 nm nm nm 5.2 6.1 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.4 20.5 20.7 2.83 2.58 0Integra O/W 0.5 4.5 900 1.9 1.5 1.2 11.4 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 12.1 15.5 0.22 -0.06 -31Arithmetic average 234 5.2 4.1 3.1 11.0 6.8 5.8 3.1 4.1 4.9 0.3 0.4 0.4 10.5 12.2 13.3 -8

Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.

Barclays 2012

Cons 2012

RoACE, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %FCF yield, %


4 December 2012 43

Valuations GEM


0

5

10

15

CN

OPT

RPT

TSN

P

AO

ILBA

NG

AZ

GA

ZN LUK

NV

TRO

SSU

RTA

T

PBR

SAS


0

5

10

15

20

CN

OPT

RPT

TSN

P

AO

ILBA

NG

AZ

GA

ZN LUK

NV

TRO

SSU

RTA

T

PBR

SAS

P/E 2012 Average

0

2

4

6

8

CN

OPT

RPT

TSN

P

AO

ILBA

NG

AZ

GA

ZN LUK

NV

TRO

SSU

RTA

T

PBR

SAS


Free cash flow yield, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, % Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS,%

-10-505

101520

CN

OPT

RPT

TSN

P

AO

ILBA

NG

AZ

GA

ZN LUK

NV

TRO

SSU

RTA

T

PBR

SAS


-40-20

020406080

CN

OPT

RPT

TSN

P

AO

ILBA

NG

AZ

GA

ZN LUK

NV

TRO

SSU

RTA

T

PBR

SAS

2011 2012

-15-10

-505

101520

CN

OPT

RPT

TSN

P

AO

ILBA

NG

AZ

GA

ZN LUK

NV

TRO

SSU

RTA

T

PBR

SAS


EV/Capital Employed, x ROACE, % Dollar EPS Growth y/y , %

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

CN

OPT

RPT

TSN

P

AO

ILBA

NG

AZ

GA

ZN LUK

NV

TRO

SSU

RTA

T

PBR

SAS


05

1015202530

CN

OPT

RPT

TSN

P

AO

ILBA

NG

AZ

GA

ZN LUK

NV

TRO

SSU

RTA

T

PBR

SAS


-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

CN

OPT

RPT

TSN

P

AO

ILBA

NG

AZ

GA

ZN LUK

NV

TRO

SSU

RTA

T

PBR

SAS


Source: Datastream


4 December 2012 44

Share price performance GEM


-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1

GAZSNP

PTTEPSURBAN

GAZNAOILPBRTAT

NVTKLKOH

CNOOCPTRSOL

ROSN

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

PBRGAZN

GAZPTR

PTTEPSUR

NVTKTATBANSNPSOL

LKOHAOIL

CNOOCROSN

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

PBRNVTK

GAZSUR

GAZNAOILSOLTAT

LKOHPTTEP

PTRSNP

CNOOCBAN

ROSN

Change in USD share price over last year, % Asian Oils vs Market Russian Oils vs Market

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

AOILPBR

NVTKGAZSURSOL

GAZNPTTEP

SNPPTR

ROSNLKOH

BANCNOOC

TAT

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


80

90

100

110


Asian Oils vs Brent Russian Oils vs Brent Asian Oils vs Russian Oils

80859095

100105110115120125


75

80

85

90

95

100

105


100105110115120125


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The Asian Market is the Hang Seng Index, the Asian sector, is the corresponding OILSGSAJ index.


4 December 2012 45

Share price performance Russia

RTS vs Urals Sector vs RTS Gazprom vs RTS

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


75

80

85

90

95

100

105


0

5

1

1

2

707580859095

100105110


GAZP vs RTS GAZP, $

Lukoil vs RTS Rosneft vs RTS Novatek vs RTS

40

50

60

70

80

80859095

100105110115120125


LKOH vs RTS LKOH, $

4

6

8

10

80

90

100

110

120

130


ROSN vs RTS ROSN, $

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

60

80

100

120

140

160


NVTK vs RTS NVTK, $

Rosneft vs Lukoil Novatek vs Sector Gazprom vs Novatek

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


70

80

90

100

110


90

100

110

120

130

140


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Russia RTS index.


4 December 2012 46

Share price performance Russia

CAT Oil vs Russian Oil Services Eurasia Drilling vs Russian Oil Services Integra vs Russian Oil Services

0

2

4

6

8

60

80

100

120

140


CAT vs Sector CAT, E

10

20

30

40

70

80

90

100

110

120


EDCL vs Sector EDCL, $

0

1

2

3

4

10

30

50

70

90

110


INTE vs Sector INTE, $

CAT Oil vs Brent Eurasia Drilling vs Brent Integra vs Brent

80

100

120

140

160


100110120130140150


30

50

70

90

110


CAT Oil vs Eurasia Eurasia vs Integra Integra vs CAT

60708090

100110120130140150


180

280

380

480

580

680

780


30

50

70

90

110


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research


4 December 2012 47

Share price performance Asia

CNOOC vs Market PetroChina vs Market Sinopec vs Market

5

10

15

20

25

90

100

110

120

130


CNOOC vs Sector CNOOC, $HK

5

10

15

80

100

120

140


PTR vs Sector PTR, $HK

5

10

15

60

80

100

120

140


SNP vs Sector SNP, $HK

Sinopec vs PetroChina CNOOC vs PetroChina CNOOC vs Sinopec

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


80

90

100

110

120


80

90

100

110

120

130

140


CNOOC vs Sector PetroChina vs Sector Sinopec vs Sector

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


80

90

100

110

120


80

90

100

110

120


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The Asian Market is the Hang Seng Index, the Asian sector, is the corresponding OILSGSAJ index.


4 December 2012 48

Share price performance GEM Local Price

30-Nov -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 3Q 12 2Q 12 1Q 12 4Q 11 3Q 11 2Q 11Indices & marketsFTSE All 3065 -0.1 1.0 5.7 -0.4 0.8 1.5 10.6 6.8 -5.5 8.0 7.4 -17.4 32.3StoxxEuro 255 0.1 1.4 8.6 1.0 3.1 5.5 13.1 9.3 -12.7 12.3 1.7 -29.4 34.9S&P 500 1416 0.0 0.5 4.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.7 12.6 5.8 -3.3 12.0 11.2 -15.5 28.6MSCI EMG 1556 0.1 1.2 6.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 10.1 6.1 -8.4 10.0 2.9 -20.0 27.7Hang Seng 22030 0.5 0.5 4.1 2.2 1.8 5.8 19.8 7.3 -5.3 11.5 5.0 -21.5 11.5MSCI Russia 730 1.1 -0.1 4.8 -5.0 -0.2 -3.7 3.9 9.8 -18.1 20.0 6.2 -33.5 49.9Integrated - AsiaCNOOC 16.6 1.2 0.2 3.8 2.1 3.0 4.3 22.4 3.3 -3.4 17.6 4.7 -28.4 36.0Petrochina 10.4 1.8 1.0 2.4 -6.3 -1.9 2.2 7.6 2.2 -9.3 13.6 0.2 -15.1 30.0PTT E&P 163.1 3.4 0.4 -1.6 4.0 -1.9 0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -6.5 5.9 19.0 -19.4 25.6Sinopec 8.2 1.2 -1.9 4.7 -0.7 -0.1 13.6 0.8 5.3 -18.6 3.6 6.6 -2.0 23.5Arithmetic Average 1.9 -0.1 2.3 -0.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6 2.6 -9.4 10.2 7.6 -16.2 28.8Integrated - RussiaAlliance Oil 52.6 0.0 -2.5 7.2 1.2 2.7 -0.3 -36.9 -13.0 -17.3 -12.1 16.5 -38.6 58.8Bashneft 1740 0.4 -2.4 0.2 -4.1 -0.9 -6.6 34.8 26.3 -17.3 38.2 -2.9 -21.6 55.3Gazprom 8.89 1.1 -2.2 1.9 -11.1 -2.7 -11.4 -16.6 6.4 -22.7 14.5 10.0 -34.2 58.3Gazprom Neft 22.9 2.8 0.2 1.0 -10.2 -7.1 -6.7 -2.5 7.1 -14.0 13.6 34.3 -25.8 32.0Lukoil 63.0 2.6 1.5 6.0 -1.6 4.1 2.2 18.9 10.5 -7.4 13.7 4.1 -21.0 27.2Novatek 109.7 3.0 1.6 7.9 -12.0 -3.8 -7.3 -12.4 11.6 -21.8 8.2 7.8 -18.7 92.9Rosneft 7.80 -0.9 -0.4 0.2 12.6 5.4 16.1 18.2 7.4 -11.6 7.3 12.3 -30.5 42.2Surgutneftegas 8.42 2.3 -0.7 5.6 -8.9 -3.2 -6.6 7.6 9.1 -15.4 24.9 -3.3 -20.2 17.4Tatneft 39.6 0.7 -0.7 8.3 -5.5 2.2 -4.6 33.7 23.6 -17.8 37.8 19.2 -41.4 58.5Arithmetic Average 1.3 -0.6 4.2 -4.4 -0.3 -2.8 5.0 9.9 -16.1 16.2 10.9 -28.0 49.2Integrated - OtherPetrobras 18.0 -2.8 -4.3 -5.5 -21.2 -15.3 -21.6 -27.7 22.2 -29.3 6.9 10.7 -34.2 0.7Sasol 375 -2.6 -2.5 1.9 -4.2 -0.8 -6.5 -11.7 7.8 -13.3 1.1 14.7 -21.6 50.4Arithmetic Average -2.7 -3.4 -1.8 -12.7 -8.1 -14.1 -19.7 15.0 -21.3 4.0 12.7 -27.9 25.5ServicesC.A.T. Oil 6.46 4.6 17.9 20.3 15.2 15.8 16.8 37.5 13.4 -23.3 35.4 13.6 -45.3 13.3China Oilfield Systems 15.5 4.7 2.8 6.8 9.6 5.3 9.7 26.5 27.5 -0.4 -9.1 21.9 -28.8 54.0Eurasia Drilling 32.6 -3.4 -4.9 -1.4 -7.3 -5.9 -1.4 38.5 29.4 -7.5 17.3 28.8 -38.1 55.3Integra 0.45 0.0 3.1 3.5 -33.7 -26.2 -65.1 -74.7 2.5 -40.1 18.0 9.2 -48.3 41.2Arithmetic Average 1.5 4.7 7.3 -4.0 -2.8 -10.0 7.0 18.2 -17.8 15.4 18.4 -40.1 41.0

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The Asian Market is the Hang Seng Index, the Asian sector, is the corresponding OILSGSAJ index


4 December 2012 49


4 December 2012 50

ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S)

We, Rahim Karim, CFA, Lydia Rainforth, CFA, Mick Pickup, Alessandro Pozzi, Scott Darling and Matthew Thomas, hereby certify (1) that the viewsexpressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in thisresearch report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

Barclays Research is a part of the Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and eachindividually, "Barclays"). For current important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this research report, please send a writtenrequest to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to http://publicresearch.barcap.com or call 212-526-1072.

The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's totalrevenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.

Research analysts employed outside the US by affiliates of Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.These analysts may not be associated persons of the member firm and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.

Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting payment or reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.

In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer tohttps://live.barcap.com/publiccp/RSR/nyfipubs/disclaimer/disclaimer-research-dissemination.html.

The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamentalanalysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differfrom recommendations contained in other types of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, orotherwise.

Materially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)

Afren Plc (AFRE.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 1.37), Overweight/Positive

Aker Solutions (AKSO.OL, 30-Nov-2012, NOK 106.60), Underweight/Positive

Alliance Oil (AOILsdb.ST, 30-Nov-2012, SEK 52.55), Equal Weight/Neutral

Alon USA Energy (ALJ, 30-Nov-2012, USD 14.22), Underweight/Positive

Bashneft (BANE.RTS, 30-Nov-2012, USD 57.00), Equal Weight/Neutral

BG Group (BG.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 10.70), Overweight/Neutral

Bowleven PLC (BLVN.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 0.71), Overweight/Positive

BP (BP.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 4.32), Underweight/Neutral

C.A.T. Oil AG (O2C.DE, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 6.46), Equal Weight/Positive

Cairn Energy (CNE.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 2.69), Equal Weight/Positive

CGGVeritas (GEPH.PA, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 23.45), Equal Weight/Positive

Chevron Corporation (CVX, 30-Nov-2012, USD 105.69), Overweight/Positive

China Oilfield Services (COSL) (2883.HK, 03-Dec-2012, HKD 15.10), Underweight/Positive

CNOOC (0883.HK, 03-Dec-2012, HKD 16.38), Overweight/Positive

ConocoPhillips (COP, 30-Nov-2012, USD 56.94), Equal Weight/Positive

Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK, 30-Nov-2012, USD 26.27), Overweight/Positive

Dockwise (DOCKW.AS, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 17.26), Equal Weight/Positive

Eni (ENI.MI, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 18.18), Overweight/Neutral

Enquest (ENQ.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 1.14), Equal Weight/Positive

ERG (ERG.MI, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 5.38), Equal Weight/Negative

Essar Energy (ESSR.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBp 120.0), Overweight/Negative

Eurasia Drilling Co., Ltd. (EDCLq.L, 30-Nov-2012, USD 32.55), Overweight/Positive

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, 30-Nov-2012, USD 88.14), Equal Weight/Positive

Galp Energia (GALP.LS, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 11.79), Overweight/Neutral

Gazprom Neft (SIBNq.L, 30-Nov-2012, USD 22.52), Overweight/Neutral

Gazprom OAO (GAZPq.L, 30-Nov-2012, USD 8.89), Underweight/Neutral

Grupa Lotos (LTOS.WA, 30-Nov-2012, PLN 37.75), Equal Weight/Negative


4 December 2012 51


Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 6.40), Equal Weight/Negative

Hess Corp. (HES, 30-Nov-2012, USD 49.61), Equal Weight/Positive

HollyFrontier Corp. (HFC, 30-Nov-2012, USD 45.33), Overweight/Positive

Hunting (HTG.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBp 814.0), Overweight/Positive

Husky Energy, Inc. (HSE.TO, 30-Nov-2012, CAD 27.88), Equal Weight/Positive

Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO.TO, 30-Nov-2012, CAD 42.35), Overweight/Positive

Integra Group (INTEq.L, 28-Nov-2012, USD 0.45), Overweight/Positive

JKX Oil & Gas (JKX.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 0.79), Equal Weight/Positive

LUKOil (LKOHyq.L, 30-Nov-2012, USD 62.95), Overweight/Neutral

Maire Tecnimont (MTCM.MI, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 0.36), Equal Weight/Positive

Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO, 30-Nov-2012, USD 30.85), Equal Weight/Positive

MOL (MOLB.BU, 30-Nov-2012, HUF 18370.00), Equal Weight/Negative

Motor Oil (MORr.AT, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 7.61), Overweight/Negative

Murphy Oil (MUR, 30-Nov-2012, USD 56.74), Equal Weight/Positive

Neste Oil (NES1V.HE, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 9.82), Equal Weight/Negative

Novatek (NVTKq.L, 30-Nov-2012, USD 105.11), Overweight/Neutral

OMV (OMVV.VI, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 27.48), Underweight/Neutral

PetroChina (0857.HK, 03-Dec-2012, HKD 10.24), Overweight/Positive

Petrofac (PFC.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 16.28), Underweight/Positive

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR, 30-Nov-2012, USD 17.97), Equal Weight/Positive

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBRA, 30-Nov-2012, USD 17.55), Equal Weight/Positive

Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS.OL, 30-Nov-2012, NOK 94.95), Overweight/Positive

PKN Orlen (PKNA.WA, 30-Nov-2012, PLN 45.70), Underweight/Negative

Polarcus (PLCS.OL, 30-Nov-2012, NOK 5.73), Overweight/Positive

Premier Oil (PMO.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 3.36), Overweight/Positive

PTT Exploration & Production (PTTE.BK, 03-Dec-2012, THB 159.50), Equal Weight/Positive

Repsol (REP.MC, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 16.31), Overweight/Neutral

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 1.47), Equal Weight/Positive

Rosneft (ROSNq.L, 30-Nov-2012, USD 7.80), Overweight/Neutral

Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 20.90), Equal Weight/Neutral

Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 21.55), Equal Weight/Neutral

Saipem (SPMI.MI, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 34.23), Overweight/Positive

Salamander Energy (SMDR.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 1.82), Overweight/Positive

Saras (SRS.MI, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 0.94), Underweight/Negative

Sasol Limited (SOLJ.J, 30-Nov-2012, ZAR 374.65), Equal Weight/Neutral

SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 8.63), Overweight/Positive

Sinopec (0386.HK, 03-Dec-2012, HKD 8.10), Equal Weight/Positive

Soco International (SIA.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 3.63), Underweight/Positive

Statoil ASA (STL.OL, 30-Nov-2012, NOK 138.50), Equal Weight/Neutral

Subsea 7 SA (SUBC.OL, 30-Nov-2012, NOK 129.50), Overweight/Positive

SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC, 30-Nov-2012, USD 16.25), Rating Suspended/Positive

Suncor Energy (SU, 30-Nov-2012, CAD 32.46), Overweight/Positive

Surgutneftegas (SNGSyq.L, 30-Nov-2012, USD 8.32), Underweight/Neutral

Tatneft (TATNxq.L, 30-Nov-2012, USD 39.58), Underweight/Neutral

Technip (TECF.PA, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 89.32), Equal Weight/Positive

Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE.MC, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 35.80), Equal Weight/Positive

Tesoro Corporation (TSO, 30-Nov-2012, USD 42.28), Overweight/Positive

TGS (TGS.OL, 30-Nov-2012, NOK 179.50), Underweight/Positive


4 December 2012 52


Total (TOTF.PA, 30-Nov-2012, EUR 38.48), Equal Weight/Neutral

Tullow Oil (TLW.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 13.77), Overweight/Positive

Tupras (TUPRS.IS, 30-Nov-2012, TRY 47.70), Overweight/Positive

Valero Energy (VLO, 30-Nov-2012, USD 32.26), Overweight/Positive

Wood Group (WG.L, 30-Nov-2012, GBP 7.77), Overweight/Positive

Other Material Conflicts

BG.L: The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays is providing investment banking services to BG Group PLC in connection withthe sale of certain interests in Queensland Curtis LNG to China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). The effects of this transaction has notbeen incorporated into the analysts views due to Barclays role in this potential transaction.

REP.MC: The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays is acting as financial advisor to Repsol YPF SA in relation to the forming of anexploration and production venture in Russia with Alliance Oil Co.

MTCM.MI: The Corporate and Investment Banking Division of Barclays Bank PLC is acting as equity advisor to Maire Tecnimont SpA.

0883.HK: The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays is providing investment banking services to BG Group PLC in connectionwith the sale of certain interests in Queensland Curtis LNG to China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). The effects of this transactionhas not been incorporated into the analysts views due to Barclays role in this potential transaction.

Guide to the Barclays Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:

Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as Overweight, Equal Weight or Underweight (see definitions below)relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry (the "industry coverage universe").

In addition to the stock rating, we provide industry views which rate the outlook for the industry coverage universe as Positive, Neutral orNegative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investorsshould carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.

Stock Rating

Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage impracticable or tocomply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Corporate and Investment Banking Divisionof Barclays is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

Industry View

Positive - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.

Neutral - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.

Negative - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.

Below is the list of companies that constitute the "industry coverage universe":

Americas Integrated Oil

Chevron Corporation (CVX) ConocoPhillips (COP) Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

Hess Corp. (HES) Husky Energy, Inc. (HSE.TO) Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO.TO)

Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) Murphy Oil (MUR) Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR)

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBRA) Suncor Energy (SU)

Asia ex-Japan Oil & Gas

Anton Oilfield Services (3337.HK) China Bluechemical Ltd. (3983.HK) China Oilfield Services (COSL) (2883.HK)

China Steel Chemical (1723.TW) CNOOC (0883.HK) Dongyue Group (0189.HK)

EZRA Holdings (EZRA.SI) Formosa Chemicals (1326.TW) Formosa Petrochemical (6505.TW)

Formosa Plastics (1301.TW) Hanwha Chem Corp. (009830.KS) Honam Petrochemical (011170.KS)

Keppel Corp. (KPLM.SI) LG Chem (051910.KS) Nan Ya Plastics (1303.TW)

PetroChina (0857.HK) PTT Exploration & Production (PTTE.BK) S-Oil Corporation (010950.KS)

Sembcorp Marine (SCMN.SI) Sinofert Holdings Ltd. (0297.HK) Sinopec (0386.HK)

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (0338.HK) SK Innovation Co., Ltd. (096770.KS) TSRC Corp. (2103.TW)


4 December 2012 53


CEEMEA Oil & Gas

Alliance Oil (AOILsdb.ST) Bashneft (BANE.RTS) Gazprom Neft (SIBNq.L)

Gazprom OAO (GAZPq.L) LUKOil (LKOHyq.L) Novatek (NVTKq.L)

Rosneft (ROSNq.L) Sasol Limited (SOLJ.J) Surgutneftegas (SNGSyq.L)

Tatneft (TATNxq.L)

European Integrated Oil

BG Group (BG.L) BP (BP.L) Eni (ENI.MI)

Galp Energia (GALP.LS) OMV (OMVV.VI) Repsol (REP.MC)

Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L) Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L) Statoil ASA (STL.OL)

Total (TOTF.PA)

European Oil & Gas: E&P

Afren Plc (AFRE.L) Bowleven PLC (BLVN.L) Cairn Energy (CNE.L)

Enquest (ENQ.L) JKX Oil & Gas (JKX.L) Premier Oil (PMO.L)

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L) Salamander Energy (SMDR.L) Soco International (SIA.L)

Tullow Oil (TLW.L)

European Oil Services & Drilling

Aker Solutions (AKSO.OL) AMEC plc (AMEC.L) CGGVeritas (GEPH.PA)

Dockwise (DOCKW.AS) Hunting (HTG.L) Maire Tecnimont (MTCM.MI)

Petrofac (PFC.L) Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS.OL) Polarcus (PLCS.OL)

Saipem (SPMI.MI) SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS) Subsea 7 SA (SUBC.OL)

Technip (TECF.PA) Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE.MC) TGS (TGS.OL)

Wood Group (WG.L)

European Refining & Marketing

ERG (ERG.MI) Essar Energy (ESSR.L) Grupa Lotos (LTOS.WA)

Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT) MOL (MOLB.BU) Motor Oil (MORr.AT)

Neste Oil (NES1V.HE) PKN Orlen (PKNA.WA) Saras (SRS.MI)

Russian Oil Services & Drilling

C.A.T. Oil AG (O2C.DE) Eurasia Drilling Co., Ltd. (EDCLq.L) Integra Group (INTEq.L)

Turkey General Industrials

Arcelik (ARCLK.IS) BIM (BIMAS.IS) Ford Otosan (FROTO.IS)

Koc Holding (KCHOL.IS) Migros (MGROS.IS) Tofas Fabrika (TOASO.IS)

Tupras (TUPRS.IS)

U.S. Independent Refiners

Alon USA Energy (ALJ) Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK) HollyFrontier Corp. (HFC)

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) Phillips 66 (PSX) SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC)

Tesoro Corporation (TSO) Valero Energy (VLO)

Distribution of Ratings:

Barclays Equity Research has 2569 companies under coverage.

42% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 53% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

43% have been assigned an Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 48% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

13% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 42% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

Guide to the Barclays Research Price Target:

Each analyst has a single price target on the stocks that they cover. The price target represents that analyst's expectation of where the stock willtrade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analyst's pricetarget over the same 12-month period.


4 December 2012 54


Barclays offices involved in the production of equity research:

London

Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays, London)

New York

Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, New York)

Tokyo

Barclays Securities Japan Limited (BSJL, Tokyo)

São Paulo

Banco Barclays S.A. (BBSA, São Paulo)

Hong Kong

Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong)

Toronto

Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCCI, Toronto)

Johannesburg

Absa Capital, a division of Absa Bank Limited (Absa Capital, Johannesburg)

Mexico City

Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. (BBMX, Mexico City)

Taiwan

Barclays Capital Securities Taiwan Limited (BCSTW, Taiwan)

Seoul

Barclays Capital Securities Limited (BCSL, Seoul)

Mumbai

Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (BSIPL, Mumbai)

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European Integrated Oil (Cont'd) Rahim Karim, CFA Joshua Stone +44 (0)20 3134 1853 +44 (0)20 3134 6694 [email protected] [email protected] Barclays, London Barclays, London

CEEMEA Oil & Gas (Cont'd) Ekaterina Marshall +44 (0)20 3134 6999 [email protected] Barclays, London

European Oil Services & Drilling (Cont'd) Tom Ackermans +44 (0)20 7773 4457 [email protected] Barclays, London

European Oil & Gas: E&P Alessandro Pozzi +44 (0)20 7773 4745 [email protected] Barclays, London

Asia ex-Japan Oil & Gas Scott Darling +852 2903 3998 [email protected] Barclays Bank, Hong Kong

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