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The 2012 Update of Our Future World
Global Megatrends
Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist
Stefan Hajkowicz
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 2
“Imagination is
more important
than knowledge”
- Albert Einstein
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Different Types of Futures
Source: Voros (2003) adapted this diagram from Hancock and Bezold (1994) in the Healthcare Forum Journal
Now Probable
Plausible
Possible
The Future
More Than Forecasting
Lynch, 2002. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.
Actual oil price (other
lines show predictions)
Megatrends
It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put
up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth.
I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.
- Neil Armstrong
1. More From Less
More From Less World Population Growth
The world population is forecast to
grow from
7.2 billion persons today
to
8.1 billion in 2025
and
9.6 billion by 2050
Source: United Nations
More From Less Food Price Movements
Source: World Bank
-
50
100
150
200
250
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
2007/08
Price Spike Between 75 - 130
million people
became
malnourished
(Headey, 2011).
Feb 2011
Highest
on record
From 2003 to 2007, the number
of undernourished people
increased from some 848 million
to 923 million, largely because of
the food-price crisis during this
period (FAO, 2008).
More From Less
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 9
More From Less Agricultural Land
Estimated that 12 million
hectares of productive
agricultural land, capable of
producing 20 million tonnes of
grain, lost each year to land
degradation (United Nations,
2011).
Image Source: NASA Terra Satellite
More From Less The best remedy for high food prices might be high food prices?
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Glo
bal
Cer
eals
Pri
ce In
dex
Au
stra
lian
Wh
eat
Pro
du
ctio
n (
mill
ion
s o
f to
nn
es)
Australian Wheat Production (Millions of Tonnes)
Global Cereal Price Index
Wheat Production Trendline
Cereal Price Trendline
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
250199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
20
02
20
04
200
6
200
8
201
0
World C
rude O
il P
rice(U
SD
per
Barr
el,
Weig
hte
d b
y e
xport
volu
me)
FA
O F
ood P
rice Index
Food Price
Crude Oil Price
More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices
More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
US
Do
llars
Per
Bar
rel
Average Crude Oil Price(US$/bbl)
More From Less Energy
Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Otherrenewables
Wo
rld
En
ergy
Use
age
(Mto
e)
2009
Current Policies 2035
More From Less Water Scarcity
More From Less Gold Ore Grade
Data Source: United Nations Environment Program 2011, Metal Recycling Report
2010 1990 1970 1950 1930 1910 1890 1870 1850 1835
50
40
30
20
10
Go
ld O
re G
rad
e (
g/t
Au
)
More From Less Extent of Mineral Resources in Emerging Economies
Data Source: United States Geological Survey (2012)
2. Going, Going … Gone?
The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species.
Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.
Going, Going… Gone?
Going, Going … Gone?
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
Going, Going … Gone? Red List
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 20
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
Red List Extinction
Risk Index
1 = No concern
0 = Extinct
Going, Going ... Gone? Staying Put
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
3. The Silk Highway
The Silk Highway The Last 10 Years Have Been Good Down Under
Source: World Bank
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11GD
P G
row
th R
ate
(%)
OECD members
Australia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Un
emp
loym
ent
(%)
OECD members
Australia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Deb
t to
GD
P (
%) OECD members Australia
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Exch
ange
Rat
e
The Silk Highway A Shifting World Economy
Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy
The Silk Highway Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 25 Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn
Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database
The Silk Highway An Economy in Transition?
Source: The Reserve Bank of Australia
More From Less From selling ingots to selling ideas
Source: Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society; Treado (2009)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Chicago Pittsburgh Detroit Cleveland
Shar
e o
f U
S To
tal i
n 2
00
3 (
per
cen
t)
Share of Steel Making Capacity
Share of Steel Technology Firms
4. Forever Young
As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.
- Audrey Hepburn
Forever Young The Ageing Population – Australia
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old
It will be 25% by 2050
Forever Young The Ageing Population in Japan
By 2050
Japan’s
population will
be 40% over
70 years old
Forever Young Retirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement
Source: Rice Warner
Forever Young The Rise of Chronic Illness
In 2002 59% of
deaths
worldwide were
from non-
communicable
illness.
It will be 69% in
2030.
Source: Mathers and Loncar, 2006.
Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Forever Young Diabetes and Overweight Projections
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f to
tal p
op
ula
tio
n
ove
rwei
ght
USA England
Spain
Austria
France
Australia
Canada
Korea
Italy
Data Source: World Masters Association
Forever Young Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Toronto, Canada
Aalborg, Aarhus &
Herning Denmark
Brisbane,
Australia
Portland,
Oregon,
USA
Melbourne,
Australia
Edmonton,
Canada
Sydney,
Australia
Num
ber
of C
om
petito
rs
5. Virtually Here
In 2009 United Airlines denied a damages claim made by a guitarist. He subsequently uploaded a song on youtube “United Breaks Guitars”. It was viewed over 12 million times. As it went viral the airline’s stock dropped 10% costing US$180 million. Data source: World Economic Forum, Global Risk Reports
Image source: Wikimedia
Virtually Here The New Public Relations Challenge
Virtually Here The Growth of Online Retail
Online as a Percentage
of Total Retail Sales
2012 2015
10 % 15%
National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.
Reta
il S
ale
s V
olu
me
Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics
Virtually Here Catch me if you can – New models of retail
Image Source: Flickr.com and The Age
Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls,
South Korea, 2011
Woolworths Virtual Grocery
Walls, Sydney, 2012
The Age
Virtually Here The Work (Live?) Anywhere City
In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement
of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.
Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend
Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM
Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend
In Australia they
cost $10,000 to
$20,000 per month
Virtually Here Automation Outside
the Factory
Image Source:
Wikipedia Commons
6. Great
Expectations Now, I return to this young fellow.
And the communication I have got to
make is, that he has great
expectations.
- Charles Dickens
Great Expectations Maslow’s Hierarchy
Esteem – confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others
Love and belonging – Friendships, family, partnering
Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property
Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking
Self
Actualization -
Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem
solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts
Great Expectations Declining Material Consumption
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
16
17
18
19
20
21
1980 1990 2000 2008
Ave
rage
GD
P P
er C
apit
a fo
r G
8
Co
un
trie
s (e
xclu
din
g R
uss
ia)
in
20
00
USD
Mat
eria
l Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
met
ric
ton
nes
per
cap
ita)
Domestic Material Consumption
Income (GDP Per Capita)
Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Great Expectations Relative Decoupling
Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Ratio of materials to GDP
Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being:
1985 - Journal of Consumer Research
1992 - Journal of Consumer Research
1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior
1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal
2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology
2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology
Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being
2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology
2009 - Journal of Research in Personality
2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Great Expectations The Jury is out - Experiences make us happier
Great Expectations Utility - A non-linear relationship
Beers (schooners)
Happiness
(utility)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
K
Not likely
More likely
Experiencing the Experience Economy Joseph Pine and James Gilmore
Great Expectations Increasing Importance of the “Whole Package”
Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand
Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension
Great Expectations Social Interaction
Basic Expectations
24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)
33% of people in urban slums
15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry
United Nations, 2012
Thank you Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Principal Scientist
t +61 7 3833 5540 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au
CSIRO FUTURES