Global Marketing Update 2021 - visitwilliamsburg.com

December 2021 CRUSA GLOBAL MARKETING UPDATE 1

CRUSA Visitor Forecast by Travel Market Insights Inc. (TMII) December 2021

Global Marketing Update 2021

Travel Market Insights Inc.

➢ Consumer Data

➢ Passenger Data

➢ In-Country Trade Data

➢ Economic Indicators

➢ Forecasting

➢ Verifiable Data Analysis

➢ All 50 States

➢ 50+ Cities

➢ All Countries


Leading in international travel research with actionable analysis.


Presentation Overview

▪ Review 2019 & 2020 visits▪ 2021 Top US Visitor Markets▪ Forecast Model – Monthly Adjustments for todays

Travel Environment▪ Focus on Risk Resilient Markets▪ CRUSA Forecast


Up 30%

Source: Travel Market Insights Inc. Inbound Travel Monitor; NTTO

1,766

1,485

1,281

1,082

1,3011,4091,365

1,457

1,7491,853

2,0302,1752,1132,050

2,362

2,6322,5242,591

2,4332,403

329

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000A

rriv

als

(00

0's

)

Overseas Visits to CRUSA

20 year average = 1,831

2019CRUSAOverseas Visitors

➢ In 2019 2.4 million overseas visitors explored destinations in CRUSA.

➢ The 2.4 million visitors accounted for 6.35 million room nights in CRUSA.

➢ $5.15 billion was spent in CRUSA destinations by the 2.4 million visitors.

Note: Overseas includes all world regions excluding North America (Canada and Mexico).

CRUSA GLOBAL MARKETING UPDATE 5December 2021

2,403,000 Visitors

6.35 Million Room Nights

$5.15 Billion Direct Spending


2,403,404

2,644,000

442,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2019 2020 (F) 2020 (P)

CRUSA Overseas Visits 2019, 2020(F)

Source: TMIIF = Forecast Pre-COVID

❑Positive market mix (countries)

❑Visitor mix – the mix of visitor interests by country

❑Product awareness expanded

❑Air capacity registered a decade of growth

❑Future opportunity was considerable:

◦ 13 (plus) countries with over 1 million visitors traveling to the U.S.

◦ Global demand – UNWTO projects 1.8 billion international travelers by 2030


2,403,4042,644,000

328,841

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2019 2020 (F) 2020 (P)

CRUSA Overseas Visits 2019, 2020(F), 2020

Forecast (p

re-Co

vid)

Source: TMII Inbound Travel Monitor/Destination Recovery Control PaneF = Spring 2020 Forecast Pre-COVID

2020 Visits

14% of 2019

-2.1 million visits from 2019

Actu

al Visits

Overseas Visits to the U.S.YTD Jan-Sept

➢ 2021 visits to the U.S. declined -82% from 2019 (YTD Jan-Sep)

➢ 2021 Visits to the U.S. declined -18% from 2020 (YTD Jan-Sep)


YTD 2021 YTD 2020 YTD 2019

WORLD REGION OF NUMBER OF NUMBER OF NUMBER OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF 2021 2020 2019 % CHANGE % CHANGE

RESIDENCE ARRIVALS ARRIVALS ARRIVALS 2020 2019 SHARE SHARE SHARE FROM 2020 FROM 2019

WESTERN EUROPE 503,457 2,142,855 10,936,996 23% 5% 9% 32% 36% -77% -95%

EASTERN EUROPE 156,289 219,342 851,840 71% 18% 3% 3% 3% -29% -82%

ASIA 822,865 2,039,963 9,473,814 40% 9% 15% 31% 31% -60% -91%

MIDDLE EAST 352,519 222,237 943,021 159% 37% 6% 3% 3% 59% -63%

AFRICA 109,488 88,034 432,284 124% 25% 2% 1% 1% 24% -75%

OCEANIA 28,500 250,398 1,253,962 11% 2% 1% 4% 4% -89% -98%

SOUTH AMERICA 2,018,668 1,079,636 4,283,303 187% 47% 37% 16% 14% 87% -53%

CENTRAL AMERICA 801,142 249,317 933,388 321% 86% 15% 4% 3% 221% -14%

CARIBBEAN 654,438 349,345 1,381,228 187% 47% 12% 5% 5% 87% -53%

TOTAL OVERSEAS 5,447,366 6,641,127 30,489,836 82% 18% 100% 100% 100% -18% -82%

✓ Central America is recovering the fastest

✓ Oceanica is recovering the slowest

✓ Western European visits are down -95% in 2021 from 2019

Source: TMII Destination Recovery Panel; NTTO; DHS/CBP ADIS



TOP TWENTY OVERSEAS TOURIST-GENERATING COUNTRIES YTD THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2021

YEAR-TO-DATE 2021 YEAR-TO-DATE 2020 YEAR-TO-DATE 2019

NUMBER OF NUMBER OF NUMBER OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF 2021 2020 2019 % CHANGE % CHANGE

COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE ARRIVALS ARRIVALS ARRIVALS 2020 2019 SHARE SHARE SHARE FROM 2020 FROM 2019

COLOMBIA 753,975 145,448 677,986 518% 111% 14% 2% 2% 418% 11%

PERU 308,092 66,976 238,603 460% 129% 6% 1% 1% 360% 29%

ECUADOR 291,769 102,589 342,349 284% 85% 5% 2% 1% 184% -15%

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 273,463 101,440 339,463 270% 81% 5% 2% 1% 170% -19%

INDIA 255,486 278,288 1,181,315 92% 22% 5% 4% 4% -8% -78%

GUATEMALA 193,787 45,706 182,128 424% 106% 4% 1% 1% 324% 6%

ARGENTINA 192,865 159,295 671,995 121% 29% 4% 2% 2% 21% -71%

COSTA RICA 176,932 68,118 226,587 260% 78% 3% 1% 1% 160% -22%

HONDURAS 174,832 42,218 153,870 414% 114% 3% 1% 1% 314% 14%

CHINA, PRC 155,179 371,848 2,353,062 42% 7% 3% 6% 8% -58% -93%

VENEZUELA 150,117 56,297 296,126 267% 51% 3% 1% 1% 167% -49%

ISRAEL 137,990 71,655 333,113 193% 41% 3% 1% 1% 93% -59%

EL SALVADOR 132,764 32,509 159,303 408% 83% 2% 0% 1% 308% -17%

SOUTH KOREA 114,039 422,506 1,695,710 27% 7% 2% 6% 6% -73% -93%

JAMAICA 113,316 56,459 221,029 201% 51% 2% 1% 1% 101% -49%

CHILE 108,382 91,816 301,486 118% 36% 2% 1% 1% 18% -64%

BAHAMAS 105,018 50,071 214,938 210% 49% 2% 1% 1% 110% -51%

UNITED KINGDOM 94,490 714,174 3,571,434 13% 3% 2% 11% 12% -87% -97%

BRAZIL 86,685 414,170 1,553,632 21% 6% 2% 6% 5% -79% -94%

PANAMA 84,142 43,252 141,779 195% 59% 2% 1% 0% 95% -41%

TOTAL TOP 20 OVERSEAS COUNTRIES FOR Y-T-D 3,903,323 3,334,835 14,855,908 117% 26% 72% 50% 49% 17% -74%

Todays Travel Environment: Unprecedented Disruption

Recovery

CRUSA Top Overseas Markets


Source: Travel Market Insights Inbound Travel Monitor; NTTO SIAT, DHS ADIS

RANK 2019 YTD 2021 YTD 2021 Volume

1 UNITED KINGDOM MEXICO EXCL LAND 12,864

2 CHINA COLOMBIA 11,714

3 INDIA INDIA 10,397

4 GERMANY CHINA 7,233

5 SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA 4,662

6 FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM 3,579

7 AUSTRALIA GERMANY 2,969

8 ITALY ISRAEL 2,211

9 JAPAN ARGENTINA 1,847

10 SPAIN FRANCE 1,677

11 NETHERLANDS SPAIN 1,535

12 COLOMBIA BRAZIL 1,395

Top countries of residence for visitors to


Travel Market Insights Inc. (TMII)Monthly Forecast Model

Destination RelevantVolume and Market Share

TMII Forecast Model

Made for Today’s Travel Environment

1. Visitor Mix

(purpose of visit)

Business

Leisure

Education

2. Primary Destination Track Market Share (Competitive Position)

3. Primary Airport(s)CRUSA Airports Market Share

4. Secondary feeder

Airport(s) Feeder Airports Market Share

5. Market Engaged

United Kingdom

France

Germany

6. Economic /

Geopolitical

GDP

Consumer Sentiment

Exchange Rate

7. Pandemic-EndemicVaccination Level

Policy

TMII Monthly Forecast Model - Tracking destination-specific shifts monthly to project year-end visits

Forecast Model:

✓ Monthly Year-End Forecast

✓ Monthly Market Share (Competitive Position)

✓ Monthly Visits by Primary Destination

✓ Monthly Mark Share by Primary and Secondary Entry Points (ports)

✓ Monthly Demand by country of residence

✓ Monthly Economic/Policy/Geopolitical

✓ Disrupters - COVID


Changing


YesIt’s Inevitable!

Focus on Risk Resilient Markets

▪ United Kingdom▪ Germany▪ France

International Travel to CRUSA?


Country Forecast Summary1. Visitor Mix

(purpose of visit)

2. Primary Destination

Visitor Share

3. Primary Airport(s)

Visitor Share

4. Secondary feeder

Airport(s)

Visitor Share

5. Market Engaged6. Economic /

Geopolitical7. Pandemic-Endemic

United Kingdom

Competitive Competitive Competitive Competitive Modest Competitive CompetitiveNegative to Modest

(short to longer outlook)

Germany

Modest to Competitive Competitive Competitive Competitive Negative Competitive CompetitiveNegative to Modest


France



Source: TMII Inbound Travel Monitor Forecast Model for CRUSA (District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia & CRUSA Primary and Secondary feeder International Airports)

Definitions Key

Country = Country of residence

Visitor Mix (purpose of visit) = Index by purpose of visit (CRUSA compared to U.S. visitors overall)

Primary Destination Visitor Share = CRUSA share of 'actual' primary destination visits

Primary Airport Visitor Share = Share of visits by country of residence at CRUSA primary airports (IAD/BWI)

Secondary (feeder) Airport Visitor Share = Share of visits by country of residence at CRUSA secondary feeder airports (i.e., JFK/Newark)

CRUSA Target Overseas Visitor Markets

(January - September 2021 Indicators)

Forecast & Competitive Position Analysis Summary


Overseas

to CRUSA

UK

to CRUSA

Germany

to CRUSA

France

to CRUSA

What was the main purpose of your trip? (%)

Business 8.4% 8.2% 8.1% 5.7%

Conv/Conf/Trade Show 9.2% 14.7% 6.3% 9.4%

Education 6.9% 3.1% 4.7% 5.8%

Vacation/Holiday 48.9% 48.6% 51.3% 53.0%

Visit Friends/Relatives 25.2% 25.1% 28.8% 24.3%

1. Visitor Mix(purpose of visit)

Source: TMII; CRUSA custom SIAT report

Visitor mix tracked monthly and indexed by country



2. Primary Destination Visited



2021 Monthly Share of Visits

The region’s YTD market share in 2021 is higher than the region’s market share in 2019.

2. Primary Destination Visited by Markey Share (Competitive Position) Competitive



United Kingdom 2021 YTD Through September Top States Visited

Rank

11th Virginia15th District of Columbia16th Maryland

2. Primary Destination Visited by Markey Share (Competitive Position)




The region’s YTD market share in 2021 is higher than the region’s market share in 2019.





The region’s YTD market share in 2021 is higher overall than 2019 market share but mixed a bit for some months.



Destination Recovery US Entry Point Control Panel©

Potential Visits by Residency▪ Monthly▪ Year to date▪ Change from 2019 & 2020

Market Share▪ Monthly▪ Year to date▪ Change from 2019 & 2020

Competitive Position▪ Comparable competitive analysis▪ Primary airports & feeder airports


Monthly Share through September 2021

CRUSA increased the share of potential visitors using Dulles International Airport from Germany, France, and the UK, helping to increase the region’s overseas share.

Growth based on 2020 Month over 2019 Month of previous year.

Measuring market share is key to understanding CRUSA’s recovery.


0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

2019 2020 2021 Monthly Share by Entry Point

2021 2020 2019

TOTAL OVERSEAS to DULLES INTERNATIONAL


0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%


2021 2020 2019

FRANCE to DULLES INTERNATIONAL


0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%


2021 2020 2019

GERMANY to DULLES INTERNATIONAL


0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%


2021 2020 2019

UNITED KINGDOM to DULLES INTERNATIONAL


3 & 4. Primary and Secondary Entry Point for CRUSA Visitors


Monthly Share

CRUSA increased the share of potential visitors using Dulles International Airport from overseas, UK, Germany, and France.

Growth based on Month over Month of previous years.

Dulles International Visits


0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%


2021 2020 2019

TOTAL OVERSEAS to DULLES INTERNATIONAL


0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%


2021 2020 2019

UNITED KINGDOM to DULLES INTERNATIONAL


0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%


2021 2020 2019

GERMANY to DULLES INTERNATIONAL


0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%


2021 2020 2019

FRANCE to DULLES INTERNATIONAL


3 & 4. Primary and Secondary Entry Point for CRUSA Visitors


5. Market Engaged Competitive


Pop Relative

U.S. to the U.S.

United Kingdom 328,239,523 20.4%

2019 2020

Total International 3 3

Overseas Only 1 1

2019 % of Total International Visitors 6.0%

2019 % of Total Overseas Visitors 32.9%

Current Indicators Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Volume Rank

Population

United Kingdom

66,796,807

United Kingdom

$0.00$0.20$0.40$0.60$0.80$1.00$1.20$1.40$1.60$1.80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2012-2021 Exchange Rate to USD$ Dollar

United KingdomPick a Country

94.095.096.097.098.099.0

100.0101.0102.0

2017

-01

20

17

-04

20

17

-07

20

17

-10

2018

-01

20

18

-04

20

18

-07

20

18

-10

20

19

-01

20

19

-04

20

19

-07

2019

-10

20

20

-01

20

20

-04

20

20

-07

2020

-10

20

21

-01

Consumer Confidence Level

United Kingdom

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

20

17

-01

20

17

-04

2017

-07

20

17

-10

20

18

-01

20

18

-04

2018

-07

20

18

-10

20

19

-01

20

19

-04

20

19

-07

20

19

-10

20

20

-01

2020

-04

20

20

-07

20

20

-10

20

21

-01

Composite Leading Indicator Index

United Kingdom

90.092.094.096.098.0

100.0102.0104.0106.0

20

17

-01

20

17

-04

20

17

-07

2017

-10

20

18

-01

20

18

-04

20

18

-07

2018

-10

20

19

-01

20

19

-04

20

19

-07

20

19

-10

20

20

-01

20

20

-04

2020

-07

20

20

-10

20

21

-01

Business Confidence Index

United Kingdom

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Consumer Price Index (Annual Percent Change)

United Kingdom

0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.0 -2.9

-19.0

16.1

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Quarterly GDP % Change over Previous Quarter(in Percentage Points)

United Kingdom

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Annual GDP % Change over Previous Year(in Percentage Points)

United Kingdom

6. Economic / Geopolitical Indicators Updated Monthly by Country


7. Pandemic-Endemic and Future Disruptors

CRUSA UK Forecast

UK Visitors in 2019

• 259,000 visits

• $330.2 M spending

• 7 nights in CRUSA

• Visited 2.4 states

• 497,000 room nights


Source: Travel Market Insights Inc. Inbound Travel Monitor Adjustable Monthly ForecastDestination Recovery Control Panel November 2021

CRUSA France Forecast

French Visitors in 2019

• 115,000 visits







CRUSA Germany Forecast

German Visitors in 2019

• 176,000 visits








Country Forecast Summary1. Visitor Mix

(purpose of visit)

2. Primary Destination

Visitor Share

3. Primary Airport(s)

Visitor Share

4. Secondary feeder

Airport(s)

Visitor Share

5. Market Engaged6. Economic /

Geopolitical7. Pandemic-Endemic

United Kingdom



Germany

Modest to Competitive Competitive Competitive Competitive Negative Competitive CompetitiveNegative to Modest


France



Source: TMII Inbound Travel Monitor Forecast Model for CRUSA (District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia & CRUSA Primary and Secondary feeder International Airports)

Definitions Key

Country = Country of residence

Visitor Mix (purpose of visit) = Index by purpose of visit (CRUSA compared to U.S. visitors overall)

Primary Destination Visitor Share = CRUSA share of 'actual' primary destination visits

Primary Airport Visitor Share = Share of visits by country of residence at CRUSA primary airports (IAD/BWI)

Secondary (feeder) Airport Visitor Share = Share of visits by country of residence at CRUSA secondary feeder airports (i.e., JFK/Newark)

CRUSA Target Overseas Visitor Markets

(January - September 2021 Indicators)

Forecast & Competitive Position Analysis Summary

Thank you!SCOTT C. JOHNSON

1-518-668-2559

[email protected]

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Global Marketing Update 2021 - visitwilliamsburg.com