Global Land Use Change Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Ecosystem Services (GLUES): A Collaborative Initiative Based on Multiple Place-Based Assessment StudiesRalf Seppelt, Florian EppinkTitel Foto Jocke Berglund

Martin-Luther UniversitätHalle-Wittenberg

Land management: crucial through limitation

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Foley et al (2009, Science)

Driver Population development Consumption pattern Urbanization Climate change Globalization

Land use Agriculture (14%) Pasture, meadows (26%) Infrastructure (0,5%) Forests (35%) Protection sites (11%)

Harvesting our Earth (HANPP)

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Agriculture (1961-1999) 12% increase in cropland 10% rise in permanent pasture Increase of 106% of overall food

crop yield per unit area Green, (2005, Science)

Haberl et al. (2007, PNAS)

Human NPP Appropriation 15.6 Pg C/yr or 23.8% of

potential net primary productivity 53% harvest, 40% land-use-induced

productivity changes, 7% by human-induced fire

97% rise in the area of land under irrigation, 638%, 203%, and 854% increase, in

the use of fertilizers

Harvesting our earth

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Haberl et al. (2009, PNAS)

Biocapacity per country

WWF

IPCC, 2005

Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 18,2 % Land use change 13,8 % Agriculture

WWF

Protecting Biodiversity

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Protection sites 11.5%GAP Analysis for

Mammals, Amphibian, BirdsRecent protection sites are

defined neither byoThreat (a)oValue (b)

Offers priorities (c)

Rodriguez et al. (2004, BioScience)

Some conclusions

Global maps are an important input for international processes

Land management is a regional processo direct feedbacks between

ecosystem services and human well being

o Regional case studies are keyo How to learn lessons?Roundsepp-Haerne et al. (2010, BioScience)

Review: Place-based Studies

Considered uncertaintyData sourceEcosystem services in

isolationModelling approachesValuationNumber of ecosystem

servicesScenario-AnalysisSpecific recommendationsStakeholder involvement

Seppelt et al. (2011, JApplEcol)

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Place-based Ecosystem Service studies

It is unclear to what degree biophysical realism is required in ecosystem service assessments

Methods to analyse trade offs among ecosystem services and economic goals are not well developed

Consideration of off-site effects is extremely rare

Involvement of stakeholders rarely extends to the implementation phase (‚ownership‘)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 16 17 19 20 22

otherno interactioninteraction

#ES considered in each Study

#Stu

dies

05

1015

20Seppelt et al. (2011, JApplEcol)

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GLUES: The Core Idea and Objectives

Global Land Use Change Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Ecosystem Services (GLUES): A Collaborative Initiative Based on Multiple Place-Based Assessment Studies

www.sustainable-landmanagement.net

Development of methods and tools for sustainable land management in different regional, hot sport regionsdevelop methods for synthesis based on the results of regional research projects based on consistent global land useand climate change data.

Place Based Studies

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…in the Programme Sustainable Land Management

Syndroms of Land ManagementIntensively managed Agro-Ecosystems, determined by agro-environmental political schemes

Land use, management

Highly regulated, protection sites, possible conflict to biofuelproduction

Energy Input, GHG

High energy input, fossil fuel based agriculture

Biodiversity Strong pressure, monocultures, alien species

Ecosystem Services

Regulating functions reduced,supporting functions substituted

Syndroms of Land ManagementR Regional land management

driven by global markets

Land use, management

Lang grabbing, loss of wetlands, loss of native forests, conflict of biofuels to regional agriculture

Energy Input, GHG

C loss through deforestation

Biodiversity Reduction of biodiversity in species rich regions.

Ecosystem Services

Regulation and supporting functions threatened, cultural services through loss of established land use practices

Syndroms of Land ManagementClimate Change as predominant driver: increasing temperature, water stress

Land use, management

Loss of soil stability, new land management schemes required, possible

Energy Input, GHG

Loss of permafrost soil, methaneemissions, more frequent fire events

Biodiversity Loss of biodiversity, change of habitat, species shifts

Ecosystem Services

Change in regulation function, loss of supporting function

Place Based Studies

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…in the Programme Sustainable Land Management

Four pillars of the GLUES project

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Szenario, Models & Synthesis Common Geodata Infrastructure

Communication & Outreach Stakeholder & Products

GLUES: Global Assessment of Land Use Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissionsand Ecosystem Services

GLUES’s Methodology and Products

GLUES GDI (Geodata Infrastructure) –provides a common infrastructure to share and maintain distributed global and regional data sets, scenario data and model results.

Szenarioso Mid-Term Projections (2030/50) – incorporate

feedbacks of agricultural markets, land use and climate

o Long-Term Scenarios (2100) land use change scenarios based on global sustainability goals and climate change, used to project land management impacts on global climate.

Synthesis develops methods and tools for trade-off and off-site effect analysis, valuation of ecosystem services and support instruments development

Conclusion Summary

Support for stakeholder and communication into international conventions

Work on global scale and embedded place based studies.o Further partners welcome

Provide consistent global scenarios and models is key for synthesiso Additional users welcome