Global Food (In)Security and

Brazilian Potential

Ladislau Martin-Neto

R&D Executive DirectorEmbrapa

Brazil

The International Economic Forum of The Americas

Palm Beach Strategic Forum

April, 8, 2014

Ag Production World Ranking – 2013/14

Around 79% of the Brazilian food production is consumed domestically and 21% is shipped to over 180 foreign markets

1

1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5

1

1 1 1 1 2 1 2 4 5

37,2

52,6

22,116,4

31,0

7,315,1 15,9

3,1 6,3

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

EXPORT

26,8

79,9

48,6

20,2

40,8

18,1

34,4

15,88,5 7,2

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

PRODUCTION

AGRIBUSINESSSURPLUS OF TRADE BALANCE IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

AGRIBUSINESSSURPLUS OF TRADE BALANCE IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Brazil – Agriculture Production Perspective 2010-30, (% INCREASE IN MILLIONS - TONNES )

Brazil – Agriculture Production Perspective 2010-30, (% INCREASE IN MILLIONS - TONNES )

29%

41%

54%

26%

48%

16%

38%

49%

61%

19%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Cotton

Rice

Coffee

Beans

(Phase

olus)

Sugar cane

Cassav

a

Maize

Soybea

n

Sorghum

Wheat

Meat

(eq. c

arca

ss)

Product 2010 2030

Cotton 3.8 4.9

Rice 12.6 17.7

Coffee 2.8 4.5

Sugar cane 712 1.050

Beans (Phaseolus) 3.4 4.3

Product 2010 2030

Cassava 27.1 31.5

Maize 55.6 76.7

Soybean 67.8 100.9

Sorghum 2.1 3.4

Wheat 6.0 7.2

Meat (eq. carcass) 9.3 13.9

Brazil- Growth of Agricultural Productivity Grains - (1976/2011)

154,20

48,86

3.156

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

0,00

20,00

40,00

60,00

80,00

100,00

120,00

140,00

160,00

1976

/77

1977

/78

1978

/79

1979

/80

1980

/81

1981

/82

1982

/83

1983

/84

1984

/85

1985

/86

1986

/87

1987

/88

1988

/89

1989

/90

1990

/91

1991

/92

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2009

/11

Yie

ld (

kg/h

a)

Pro

du

ctio

n (m

illio

n t

on

s) a

nd

area

(m

illio

n h

a)

Production (million tons) Area (million ha) Yield (kg/ha)

+ 228%Variation, 1976/77 to 2010/11 + 31% + 151%

Source: Ministry of Agrarian Development

Pho

to: C

láud

io M

orõe

s

» Cassava.......87%

» Milk...............58%

» Beans.............70%

» Beef..........30%

» Poultry..... 50%

» Corn........ 46%

» Pork...... 59%

» Rice......... 34%

Contribution of Small-holder Farmers

Brazilian Agriculture

» Farming area: 106.8 million hectares

» 12 million producers (1/3 of them are women)

» 24% of agricultural area

» 84% of land owners in Brazil

Brazilian Support to Small-holder Farmers

• Creation of additional Ministry of Agrarian Development, in 2000 (maintained original Ministry of Agriculture)

• Specific Annual Program to finance small farms production

• However data of 2006 (IBGE):•4.4 million of farmers declared income

•0.5 million farmers (11%) – 87 % of production value

•3.9 million farmers (89%)- 13% of production value (many of them in poverty conditions)

• So an important challenge remains to improve conditions to small-holder farmers (creation of new Rural Extension Agency this year by Brazilian Governor)

Renewable Energy in Brazil

14

45

86

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

World Brazil RENEWABLE

NON-RENEWABLE

Total area 850 M ha

Amazonian and other preservation areas

500 M ha

Potential of Agricultural Land

350 M ha

Today- Grains and perennial

60 M ha (sugarcane- 8 M

ha; reforestation- 6 M ha

Pasture- 190 M ha

Areas to be cultivated

100 M ha

87% of sugarcane Production(4 million ha – ethanol production)

CERRADOCERRADO(SAVANNAH -(SAVANNAH -

200 Mi ha)200 Mi ha)

AMAZONAMAZONAMAZONAMAZON

SEMI-ARIDSEMI-ARID

SUBTROPICALSUBTROPICAL

Land-Use in Brazil

PROTECTED

In the future, increasing fraction of agricultural

production will have to be mobilized via trade since

the distribution of the world population by

region does not follow the distribution of arable land

In the future, increasing fraction of agricultural

production will have to be mobilized via trade since

the distribution of the world population by

region does not follow the distribution of arable land

Global Arable Areas and Population - 2009

Water stress indicator (WSI) in major basinsIrrigation- consumption of 70% of world water

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture by 2080

Source: based on Cline, W. R. 2007. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Washington D.C.: Peterson Institute

Available at: http://www.unep.org/geo/pdfs/geo5/GEO5_report_full_en.pdf

- The poorest areas of the globe are the most challenging to agriculture -Intense biotic (pests) and abiotic (drought, flood, soil acidity, low nutrients, etc) stresses.

All these challenges will be intensified with the global climatic changes.

- The poorest areas of the globe are the most challenging to agriculture -Intense biotic (pests) and abiotic (drought, flood, soil acidity, low nutrients, etc) stresses.

All these challenges will be intensified with the global climatic changes.

Fonte: FAO - 2004

Milh

ões d

e h

aCropped areas in the world

Pastùreland and no utilized areas

Agriculture

Mill

ion

ha

SOURCE: FAO 2004

Bra

zil

US

A

Ru

ssia

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

Au

stra

lia

Can

ada

Arg

enti

na

Ind

on

esia

Co

lom

bia

Ven

ezu

ela

Fra

nce

Preventive Plant Breeding Preventive Plant Breeding

Development of plant varieties Development of plant varieties resistant to high risk quarantine resistant to high risk quarantine pests and pathogenspests and pathogens

Preventive Plant Breeding

Program designed to develop, in advance, genetic stocks of different crops which are resistant to quarantine organisms, prior to their

entrance in the country.

ANGOLASoybean

Red Leaf BlotchPhoma glycinicola

PANAMARice

Bacterial BlightXanthomonas oryzae

pv. oryzae

RicePanicle Blight

Burkholderia glumae

CHILECommon Bean

Halo Blight Pseudomonas savastanoi

pv. phaseolicola

Preventive BreedingInternational Partners

PORTUGALMaize

Late Wilt of CornHarpophora maydis

BRAZIL

SoybeanRed Leaf Blotch

Phoma glycinicola

UNITED STATES

soybean rust2013 – poliphagous larvaecaused by Helicoverpa armigeraHelicoverpa armigera

Subtotal 2013:>US$4.6 billions

88Field Experiment 2013/2014 Season Soybean

Field Experiment 2013/2014 Season Soybean

Areb- transgenic

40°C (104 °F) - 49 days – rainfall 44 mmTypical rainfall season 300 mm

conventional

Soybean Experimental Field

Fonte: MAPA, 2010 – Fotos de Votorantin Metais

Land use intensification

Low Carbon Emission Agriculture Program

Integrated system- crop-livestock-forest

Structuring Projects in Africa

Nacala corridorNacala corridor

BrazilBrazil13º S

17º S

Lichinga

Nampula

Similar biomes Similar challenges New learning opportunities A common vision for the future

Pro-Savannah Project - Mozambique

Sharing Knowledge of Tropical Agriculture

ladislau.martin@embrapa.br

www.embrapa.br

Thank you

“…But the availability of farmland is in fact only a secondary reason for the extraordinary growth in Brazilian agriculture. If you want the primary reason in three words, they are Embrapa, Embrapa, Embrapa.” The Economist,

August 28th 2010The Economist, August 28th 2010