59
Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School of Interdisciplinary Information Studies Yoshiaki Hashimoto 2010.6.17/6.24 (Notice: This material is a translation of the original material in Japanese by agency–translation errors may still exist)

Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

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Page 1: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series

2010 The University of Tokyo

Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School of Interdisciplinary Information Studies

Yoshiaki Hashimoto 2010.6.17/6.24

(Notice: This material is a translation of the original material in Japanese by agency–translation errors may still exist)

Page 2: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Professor Yoshiaki Hashimoto’s Profile

(Socio-information and Communicaiton Studies Course at the Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies)

Academic Specialties: • Communications Theory • Information Behavior Theory • Social Psychology • Sociolinguistics

Page 3: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Content of Principal Research • (1) Communications Understanding Process/Content Analysis Theoretical research which, while incorporating research results from the fields of

pragmatics, sociolinguistics, cognitive psychology, etc., considers the methodologies for analyzing the mechanisms for the transmission/understanding of verbal and non-verbal signs and messages.

[Publications](Unofficial English titles)

“Faulty Communication: Irony, Metaphor and Implicature”, Keiso Shobo “Introduction to Communications Theory”(editor), Taishukan Shoten “Techniques of Message Analysis” (joint translation, Keiso Shobo

• (2) Analysis of the Relationship between Changes in the Information

Environment and Cognitive Capacities Conducted analysis from both theoretical and empirical standpoints on how

changes in an information environment influence communications-related cognition capabilities, such as language development, as well as language behavior, etc. For example, consideration of what impact the new visual media have on the development of nursing children, and how changes in the information environment are affecting the character formation of the younger generation.

“Visual Media and the Brain—A Physiological Approach to Television Images and the Cerebrum” in Mass Communications Research, No. 46

Page 4: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Content of Principal Research (2) • (3) Social Psychology Analysis of Information Behavior Empirical analysis of how “information behavior” in the form of media use

behavior, interview communications behavior, etc. actually changes in line with changes to the information environment and what are the social psychological factors related to those changes.

“Media Communications Theory”(joint editor), Hokuju Shuppan “Information Behavior and Social Psychology”(editor), Hokuju Shuppan “Media Communications Studies”(editor), Taishukan Shoten “Birth of the Neo Digital Native”(Yoshiaki Hashimoto + Dentsu), Diamond Inc.

• (4) Comparisons of Intercultural Communications concerning Differences

in Strategies for Pragmatics, etc. Cites knowledge from communications research concerning conditions of

intercultural interchange in attempts to apply empirical studies to practical issues. Video “A Near but Far Country –Current Communications between Japanese and South Korean Youth”

(project commissioned by the Foreign Ministry) Video “Widening Connecting The World of Children – A New Age for Japan-South Korea Interchange”

(project commissioned by the Foreign Ministry)

Page 5: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Society/Lifestyles

Media Psychology

“Information Social Psychology” in a Nutshell Communication Dynamics

Information

Page 6: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

“Net Users’ Psychology and Behavior” Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series

Instructor: Yoshiaki Hashimoto

(1)6/17 The Internet and the Cannibalism of the Media (2)6/24 Changing Media Environment and Mentality of Japanese Youth

Page 7: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(6/17)Internet and the Cannibalism of the Media ―Verifying with data changes in the information

behavior of the Japanese -Is the Internet encroaching on TV?

Page 8: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Overview of Base Survey

○“Japanese Information Behavior 2009” Joint research by Yoshiaki Hashimoto and Dentsu • Diary-type survey + Questionnaire survey Survey Locations Nation ide (157 locations) Survey Target Population Males/Females ages 13~69 N=1, 490 Two-stage stratified random sampling based on the Basic Resident Registration Card Home visits by research staff to collect questionnaires Survey Period June 2009 Diary-type ~ at home (7 items), lifestyle behavior (8 items), Information behavior (29 items) entered into 15 minute cells (in any case where there is less

that10 minutes, a check mark is placed next to it and it is counted as 5 minutes)

Page 9: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

29 Information Behavior Categories

平均値(分)187.8

9.83.3

3.118.27.21.48.42.10.51.20.4

15.815.41.11.9

42.7

1.90.62.70.2

3.322.31.93.48.9

ラジオを聴く 30.0 携帯型ゲーム機でゲームをする 2.4 固定電話で通話する 7.9

印刷物

新聞を読む マンガを読む 雑誌(マンガを除く)を読む

パソコン

メールを読む・書く サイトを見る サイトに書き込む チャット機能やメッセンジャーを使う

その

他の

機器

テレビ放送を見る 録画したテレビ番組を見る インターネット経由の動画を見る

DVDソフト・レンタルDVDなどを見る

サイトに書き込む

書籍(マンガ・雑誌を除く)を読む

テレビ放送を見る 録画したテレビ番組を見る ゲームをする

テレビ

テレビ放送を見る 録画したテレビ番組を見る

DVDソフト・レンタルDVDなどを見る テレビゲームをする

携帯電話(PHS

メールを読む・書く サイトを見る

インターネット経由の動画を見る

ゲームをする

通話をする

作業をする(Wordなどでの文書作成、Excelなどでの計算)

Watching TV broadcasts

Watching DVD software, rental DVDs, etc. Watching prerecorded TV programs

Playing TV games Reading/writing e-mail Looking at websites Inputting into websites Telephoning Watching TV broadcasts Watching prerecorded TV programs Playing games Watching videos sent over the Internet Reading/writing e-mails Looking at websites Inputting into websites Using chart functions and messenger Working (creating documents with Word, etc., making calculations with Excel, etc.)

Watching TV broadcasts Watching prerecorded TV broadcasts Watching videos sent over the Internet Watching DVD software, rental DVDs, etc. Playing games Reading newspapers Reading manga Reading magazines (excluding manga) Reading books, etc. (excluding manga & magazines)

Listening to the radio Playing games on cell phone-type game devices Talking on fixed-line telephone

Television C

ell phones [including PH

S] PC

s Printed M

aterial

Other Devices

Average Value [min.]

Page 10: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Diary-type Questionnaire Form

Page 11: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(Example of Results) Trends for TV Viewing Behavior by Time Period

Daily peak at 9:00 p.m. (21:00)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

6:00

7:30

9:00

10:3

0

12:0

0

13:3

0

15:0

0

16:3

0

18:0

0

19:3

0

21:0

0

22:3

0

0:00

1:30

3:00

4:30

固定テレビリアルタイム視聴(左軸)

視聴者中の携帯電話とのながら(右軸)

視聴者中のパソコンとのながら(右軸)

Fixed TV real-time viewing (left axis)

Viewing while using a cell phone (right axis)

Viewing while using a PC (right axis)

Page 12: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Other Surveys ○ 2005 Japanese Information Behavior Survey (Hashimoto Research Office) N=2,029 nationwide survey conducted in March 2005

Target Population = individuals ages 13-69 Concepts, methodology same as for 2009 Survey

○ 2008 BPO Survey of Conditions Surrounding TV Viewing by Youth

Carried out by Hashimoto and others as part of the activities of the Youth Committee

of the Broadcasting Ethics & Program Improvement Organization (BPO). Carried out in November 2008, N=311 Individuals ages 16-24 living in Tokyo ※ The “BPO Survey” mentioned in the latter half of this report refers to this report.

Page 13: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Problem Consciousness

○ Are viewers really moving away from TV? ○ If the hours or viewing TV are decreasing is

the main factor “cannibalism” with the Internet.

Page 14: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

When broken down by age group, the viewing time for the young age group is shorter. ~ So can we conclude, “There is a continuing drift away from TV by the younger generation”?

→No!

Methods for Verifying whether “Abandonment of TV?” is a real phenomenon (1) ~ Comparisons of TV viewing time by age group

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

10代 20代 30代 40代 50代 60代

TV Viewing Time by Age Group (min.) 2009

Teens 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s

Page 15: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

In Japan almost uniformly the younger generation watches the least TV →Age group effect

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

10代 20代 30代 40代 50代 60代

TV Viewing Time by Age Group (min.) 2005

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

10代 20代 30代 40代 50代 60代

TV Viewing Time by Age Group (min.) 2009

Teens 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s Teens 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s

Page 16: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

“Age Strata Effect” [Generational Effect] - Reflects special characteristics of different age groups For example, even if we say “Young people today . . .” if

nothing more is involved than our having changed as we have grown older, and we judge young people of every period to evidence the same tendencies, then this amounts to nothing more than the “age strata effect.”

Cf. “Era Effect” - Changes due to fashions of the day Even if we say “Today’s young people have changed,” if all age

groups have been changing in the same direction/inclination, then this merely represents the trends of the times, and does not mean that today’s young people have specially changed.

eg. Even if we say, “Today’s younger people do not eat rice,” since rice consumption has been declining in every age group, this can be considered an “era effect.”

※After every age group had passed through N years, if the TV viewing time declines, then that would mean that TV viewing time is continuing to decline because of the “era effect.”

Page 17: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

For example, take the statement: “The behavior and consciousness of young people has changed.” If we have made adjustments for the effects of getting older and era factors in cohort generation analysis for a specific generation, then we need to verify the uniqueness of this cohort. For this reason a minimum of two surveys (T1, T2) need to be carried

out during a fixed time period (n years), to see whether groups other than younger generation group x have undergone change due to the age stratum effect (or era effect), in order to clarify whether x alone is experiencing a special effect.

0

10

20

30

40

10代 20代 30代

2000年 2010年

0 10 20 30 40 50

10代 20代 30代

2000年 2010年

0

10

20

30

40

50

10代 20代 30代

2000年 2010年

年層効果 時代効果 新10代だけ変異

2000 2010 2010

2000

Teens 20s 30s Teens 20s 30s Teens 20s 30s

Age Strata Effect Era Effect Variation only for new teens

Page 18: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Methods for verifying whether actually “Abandoning TV?” (2) ~ Observing changes in serial TV viewing time

The “Survey of Information Behavior among the Japanese” shows an increase of 7.5 minutes over four years →Is the actual situation that TV viewing time is on the increase? →No!

180.3

187.8

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

2005年 2009年

Page 19: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

No Reason to Conclude TV Viewing Is Increasing

①Measurement Error +-5 minutes is within the margin of error ②Fluctuating Factors during the Survey Period There were possible factors (e.g. big news, events, weather)

that led to increases/decreases in television viewing times during the days surveyed in 2005 and 2009 (2 days in each case).

※Actually during those days in both years there were not any major events, news, etc.

Page 20: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

③Shifts in Average Age Due to the “stratified random sampling” employed in the

survey, concerning the actual population proportions, samples reflecting the actual age distribution could be obtained.

2005→2009, increasing aging of population The survey also showed that amidst the framework of “age

13-age 69,” the average age of those being surveyed has increased (from age 42.8 to age 45.2)

Page 21: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

On the other hand, it is a fact that the older the person, the more time he or she is likely to spend watching TV. →The average time television is watched by individuals of the same age in the age 13-age 69 target group tends on the average to get longer (with age)

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

10代 20代 30代 40代 50代 60代

Time (min.) spent watching TV by age group 2009(reinserted)

Teens 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s

Page 22: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Well, again let’s look at the question “Is the amount of time people are watching TV decreasing?”

For individuals in their 30s and above, despite the trend in a four-year period, the amount of viewing is about the same number of hours within the same age group. For the youth group, there is a particularly pronounced decline for the teens (-41.8 min.) → There is a possibility that this decline in the amount of viewing time among younger age groups is not due to the year stratum effect or era effect, but rather to actual conditions.

10代 20代 30代 40代 50代 60代 全体 2005 149.6 162.8 147.4 169.4 185.2 253.8 180.3 2009 107.8 148.2 157.5 165.5 207.2 254.9 187.8

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

2005 2009

Teens 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s Totals

Page 23: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Problem Consciousness 2 Is the Internet encroaching on TV? ○ Correlation can be seen between the number of hours of TV

viewing and number of hours of Net use. Correlation between TV and number of hours of Net use with home PCs

=―0.04 (Although a significant level has not been reached there is a negative correlation)

※ The overall average value for home PC Net use time of less than 16.6 minutes is classified (broken down) above.

~ The more time a person spends using the Net, the shorter time he spends viewing television. → Can we then say that the Net is encroaching on TV viewing?

→No!

194.1 160.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

自宅PCネット利用小 自宅PCネット利用大 Little Net use on home PC

Much Net use on home PC

Page 24: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

“The more time a person spends using the Net, the shorter time he spends viewing television.” For example, even if this statement is true. . . →This does not necessarily mean that Internet use is having a direct impact on television viewing. That is because the demographic characteristics for Internet

users and non-users are quite different (with in general the more closely a person is identified with the class of Internet, the more he or she tends to be young and have advanced education, etc.) and these attributes have an impact on the amount of time spent viewing TV.

Page 25: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

PC Net Use Time and TV Viewing Time by Age Group

→ Negative spurious correlation between the “age” factor and media.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

10代 20代 30代 40代 50代 60代

テレビ(左軸←) 自宅PCネット(右軸→) TV (left axis) Home PC Net (right axis)

Teens 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s

Page 26: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Cf. What are spurious correlations?

Take this fictitious situation. Say that we conduct a survey measuring the “degree of baldness” among men, and on the other hand annual income for individuals till they are in their 50s.

Probably we will find a “high correlation between the amount of baldness and annual incomes”

- So can we conclude, “The higher the degree of baldness, the higher the annual

income.” ? →No! ・ There is a strong correlation between the degree of baldness and age

・ On the other hand, there is also a true correlation between age and annual income for age strata through the 50s.

→ So to use “age” as an intermediate to create a spurious correlation that directly links the amount of baldness with annual income is not based on any real correlative relationship or cause-and-effect relationship.

Page 27: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

For example, various kinds of public opinion polls, polls

measuring support rates for political parties, etc. often show results reading “the higher the education level, the more A.”

However, in Japan up until now, the closer we get to the present time, there has been a linear rise in the percentage of students going on to higher education.

In other words, the younger the age group, on the average the higher the level of educational attainment.

Consequently, there are many instances in which “academic attainment and A” represents a spurious correlation because of the “age” factor.

Page 28: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Likewise concerning the question of “TV viewing and aggressive behavior by youths and crime rates,” in the United States and elsewhere we can often see survey data which purports to show that “the more TV a youngster watches, the more likely he or she is to be aggressive or have a high rate of crime.” (Therefore TV is evil?)

However, in the United States the tendency is for youngsters from homes with low annual family income and non-White homes, for he or she to spend more time watching television. On the other hand, the trend also is for children from such homes to have a worse family environment and for their rates of aggressiveness and crime to be higher. Consequently, there is a considerable doubt here concerning the intermediary role played by the factor of “home environment” in a spurious (pseudo)- -correlation, and a possibility that watching TV itself is not the reason for such behavior.

Page 29: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Verification of Cannibalism between Internet Use and TV Viewing Time

Verification of Cannibalism between Internet Use and TV Viewing Time

• The survey is conducted over two weekdays, focusing on individuals who use their home PCs during only one of those days, and identifying for those individuals:

a. The day on which the PC/Net was used, and b. The day on which the PC/Net was not used as compared to the amount of TV viewing time.

→ Since here the analytical parameters are exactly the same, we can exclude attribute influences.

Page 30: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Patterns of At-home Two-Day PC Use

タイプ N %

1 自宅PCネット平日両日とも利用 246 16.5

2 自宅PCネット平日初日だけ利用 97 6.5

3 自宅PCネット平日2日目だけ利用 87 5.8

4 自宅PCネット平日両日とも非利用 1060 71.1

1490 100.0

テレビ視聴時間 N

PC利用日 145.1 184

PC非利用日 135.8 184

For the 184 individuals who fall into classifications (2) or (3), we compared TV viewing time for the day of use versus the day of non-use

Type

Used home PC/Net on both weekdays

Did not use home PC/Net either weekday

Used home PC/Net only on the first weekday

Used home PC/Net only on the second weekday

TV Viewing Time

Day PC Used

Day PC Not Used

Page 31: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

If PC/Net use were eating into TV viewing time . . .

On days when the PCs were used, the TV viewing time should be shorter, while on days when PCs were not used, TV viewing times should be shorter, but . . .

Page 32: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

[Actual Results] On days when the PC/Net was used at home, TV viewing time was actually longer.

145.1

135.8

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

PC利用日 PC非利用日

Values are for hours of TV viewing

Days PC Used DaysPC Not Used

Page 33: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

• People tend to allot their time at home to uses of various customary media.

• If we look at the use of media in terms of time for TV viewing or newspaper reading, PC use, etc. at present we do not see the limited personal free time at home being one-sidedly skewed in any particular direction, but rather the amounts of time allotted for each within the at-home free time being variously lengthened or shortened.

• We cannot conclude that there is no “cannibalism” relationship.

Page 34: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

34

If the time at home is long, then periods devoted to both “TV” and “Home PC” lengthen.

275.5

204.7

145.8

82.7

23.4

16

15.5

11.3

16.4

15.6

17.3

10.1

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

在宅1160分以上

850分-1160分未満

700分-850分未満

700分以下

自宅でテレビ 自宅でPCネット 自宅で携帯ネット

Hours at home

TV at home PC/Net at home

Cell phone/Net at home

Hours at home

700 min. or less

700 min.-less than 850 min

At home 1160 min. or more

Page 35: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

35

The ratio of TV viewing time to total at home time is roughly fixed (For individuals at home 700 minutes or more, it is approximately 20%)

Incidentally, according to reanalysis Hashimoto conducted based on data from the “NHK National Lifestyle Time Survey,” TV viewing consistently accounts for roughly 40% of “time at home and awake.”

20.7

20.7

18.8

16.1

1.8

1.7

2

2.2

1.2

1.6

2.2

1.9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

在宅1160分以上

850分-1160分未満

700分-850分未満

700分以下

自宅でテレビ 自宅でPCネット 自宅で携帯ネット At home TV At home PC/Net

700 min. or less

700 min.-less than 850 min

850 min.-less than1160 min

At home 1160 min. or more

Page 36: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Actually, if we look at the details, we find that the ratio of at-home time differs according to age group, with the proportion

decreasing the younger the age group. ←Young people have lots of other things to do.

19.1

13.2

16.2

17.1

18.0

21.3

23.1

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

全体

10代

20代

30代

40代

50代

60代

Teens

20s

30s

40s

50s

60s

Overall

Page 37: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Correlation analysis shows that there is no cannibalism for individuals ages 15-29 regarding TV and “PC/Net” use. (no correlation)

There is almost no correlation between “TV” and “PC/Net videos.” There is however a valid correlation between “inputting onto a website” and TV viewing time.

テレビ視聴時間との相関(15-29才)

相関係数 有意水準 有意水準表  Nパソコン ネット動画 -0.05887 0.1827 n.s. 514

メールの読み書き -0.04652 0.2925 n.s. 514サイトを見る -0.08369 0.058 n.s. 514サイトに書き込む 0.08873 0.0444 * 514チャット・メッセンジャー -0.09439 0.0324 * 514(ネット動画利用者限定)ネット動画 -0.00311 0.984 n.s. 44

The significance levels show the “critical ratio” – with the lower the value the less likely it is that even if there is a declaration of “significant relation” this will be an overstatement. For example, if the value is 0.9, that indicates that we almost certainly cannot say that a significant relationship exists. Actually, the correlation coefficient is close to zero (0).

Correlations with TV viewing time correlation coefficient significance level significance level

PC Net videos Reading/writing e-mails Looking at websites inputting onto website Chat/Messenger

(Limited only to users of Net videos) Net videos

Page 38: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

In addition, there is no evidence that viewing videos on a cell phone eats into TV time

~The use of services that might seem to encroach on TV time is extremely short in duration

携帯画面での画像情報接触時間の年層別比較 (単位:分)

Teens 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s

Watching 1seg broadcasts

Playing games

Watching videos via the Internet

Watching 1seg broadcasts

Playing games

Watching videos via the Internet

Comparisons of contact time for image information on cell phone screens by age group (Unit: minutes)

Page 39: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

The younger generation spends quite a bit of time looking at cell phone e-mail and websites (see graph below), so that the time devoted to these pursuits in relation to the viewing of television by individuals in their teens and 20s is significant. ~But the more time a youngster passes with a cell phone, the more TV he or she is likely to watch.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

10代 20代 30代 40代 50代 60代

【携帯】メールを読む・書く サイトを見る

テレビ視聴時間との相関(15-29才)

メールの読み書き 0.097*

サイトを見る 0.099*

Teens 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s

Min. Reading/writing “cell phone” e-mail Looking at websites

Correlations with TV Viewing Time (age15 – age 29)

E-mail reading/writing

Looking at websites

Page 40: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

The amount of time that young people spend watching TV continues to decline, but if the PC/Net and cell phones are

not major causes of the decline, what is?

(1) Diversity of A/V equipment ~ Decrease in live viewing of TV monitors? (2) Time shift (recording) for later viewing? (3) Increasingly tired of TV?

Page 41: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(1) Diversification of A/V equipment? (BPO Survey)

96.21%

1.42% 0.50%

0.05% 0.00% 0.82% 0.73% 0.27%

0.00% 1. テレビモニター 2. チューナー付きパソコン

3. ワンセグ

4. 動画投稿サイト

5. カーナビ

6. HDDでの録画再生

7. ビデオ・DVDでの録画再生

8. パソコン録画再生

9. 携帯電話・携帯機器での録画再生

TV monitors still account for 96% of use. Delivery by 1seg servers, PCs, etc. is miniscule.

TV monitors 2. PCs equipped with tuners

3. 1seg

4. Video posting sites

5. Car navigation systems

6. Recorded videotape replay with HDD

7. Recorded videotape replay on VHS/DVD

8. Recorded videotape replay on PCs

Recorded videotape replay on cell phones/mobile devices

Page 42: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(2)Nor is there a great deal of time-shift viewing ←Rather the period of recorded videotape

viewing by the younger generation is short

Viewing time for recorded TV programs viewed by age group (Unit: min.)

Teens 20s 30s 50s 60s 40s

Page 43: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(3) Are younger people increasingly bored by television? → We might say so.

Relative importance among information media declining (BPO Survey)

“What media are important to you?”

69.5

16.1

11.6

2.9

22.8

25.7

43.1

8.4

4.5

37.9

35.7

21.9

3.2

20.3

9.7

66.9

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

携帯電話

パソコン

テレビ

ゲーム機

1位 2位 3位 4位 First Second Third Fourth

Game Consoles

TV

PCs

Cell phones

Page 44: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

In the past TV was overwhelmingly considered an “Essential Media.”

In reply to the question “What media are important to you? (choose three)” in the survey “The Information Society and Young People” (Management and Coordination Agency[now

defunct] -- Prime Minister’s Office) the ratios for TV were as shown below:

71.4 76.8 79.1

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

第2回(1991) 第3回(1996) 第4回(2001)

In the Cf.2006 survey, this question was eliminated.

2nd Survey 3rd Survey 4th Survey

Page 45: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Already a majority answer, “It wouldn’t bother me even if I didn’t have it.”(BPO Survey)

49.5

18.0

61.7

42.4

42.2

50.5

82.0

38.3

57.6

57.8

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

全体

パソコン1位

高校生

大学生

社会人

ないと困る なくても困らない等 Bothered if I didn’t have Not bothered if I didn’t have

Overall

PC First

High School Students

College Students

Adults

Page 46: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

○ More people are saying that it wouldn’t matter to them if there were no TV. On the other hand, simultaneous use with other media, especially cell phones, is increasing.

Page 47: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

While Doing Something Else… (Survey of BPO Program Schedule)

18.8

5.6

4.8

26.9

10.6

15.1

8.7

5.3

29.3

7.5

22.0

2.9

4.4

24.8

13.2

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

携帯電話

パソコン

紙媒体

食事

身支度

全体 男性 女性

Numerical values are for the proportion of programs which were viewed while being involved with some other usage activity.

Overall Men Women

Cell phones

PCs

Print Media

Eating

While Getting Ready

Page 48: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

TV Viewing and Other Activities by Time (BPO Survey)

On weekdays during the 6:00 p.m. time slot, 35% of TV viewers are fiddling with cell phones (red line).

Percentage of TV Viewing Activity (right axis) Cell phones, etc. PCs, etc. Eating/Getting Ready.

Page 49: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Activities Using the Net while Viewing TV Are Also Becoming More Common

(BPO Survey)

23.5

19.6

18.3

17

12.9

11.6

10.3

5.1

4.8

2.9

0 5 10 15 20 25

番組内に出てきたことがらについて、インターネットで検索する

番組を見ながら、番組の内容について、友人・知人とメール交換する

番組の内容について、友人・知人とメール交換する

放送局の番組公式サイトを見る

番組の放送予定について、友人・知人とメール交換する

番組の内容について、ネット上で他の人の感想や意見を見る

番組を見ながら、出演者のプロフィールをネットで検索する

番組を見ながら、2ちゃんねるなどの関連スレッドを見る書く

番組の内容について、ネット上で感想や意見などを書く

番組内に出てきた商品を、インターネットを通じて購入する

Searching the Internet for information on something mentioned in a program

Exchanging e-mails with friends/acquaintances about program content while viewing that program on TV

Exchanging e-mails with friends/acquaintances about program content

Looking at the official website of a broadcaster

Exchanging e-mails with friends/acquaintances about broadcast schedule for a program

Looking at the impressions/opinions of others on the Net concerning program content

While viewing a program, searching on the Net for the profiles of those appearing

Writing your own impressions/opinions on the Net concerning program content

Writing your own impressions/opinions on the Net concerning program content

Purchasing through the Internet products which appeared on a program

Page 50: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Degree of Concentration and Degree of Application Degree of Concentration-Did you concentrate, or did your mind wander?

Degree of Application -Did you apply your attention to the program, or did you do something else simultaneously?

About 60% of TV programs are watched while doing something else

42.5%

47.2%

20.4%

62.8%

21.2%

52.2%

47.6%

51.1%

55.6%

40.6%

35.7%

42.3%

46.1%

21.5%

56.8% 29.0%

48.4%

56.2%

54.3%

42.2%

37.5% 42.9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

全体(N=2117)

バラエティー(N=850)

ニュース系(N=353)

ドラマ(N=250)

ワイドショー・情報・討論(N=217)

アニメ(N=157)

スポーツ(N=105)

音楽(N=94)

ドキュメンタリー(N=45)

教育・教養(N=32)

映画(N=14)

集中度 専念度 Degree of Concentration Degree of Application

Total

Variety

News-related

Drama

“Wide Shows”/Information/Discussion

Cartoons

Sports

Music

Documentaries

Education/Training

Movies

Page 51: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(According to NHK surveys) previously too television has been a form of media to which people pay only about half-attention while doing something else. However, in the past this “something else” has usually consisted of eating or getting ready. Nowadays, the cell phone holds first place for the other “something elses,” and it by its very nature requires concentration (to write e-mails, etc.) → Actually, the degree of watching TV while “doing something

else, letting the mind wander” is growing. -- So that TV is increasingly becoming a medium to which total concentration is not given. People are not all that particular about what they are watching.

Page 52: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

However, there are still important aspects.

(1)TV remains an important media which allows viewers to kill time. (2) It is important as the number one source of news (3) Felt to be highly effective (4) High reliability

Page 53: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(1) Holds important position as leisure activity

“What important means do you have for passing free time?” (multiple answers, 40 choices)(BPO Survey)

Although cell phones are now superior, TV is still an important source of free time amusement.

74.2% 71.3%

66.1% 57.1%

50.3% 44.8%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%

携帯電話のメール テレビ(生/録画)

買い物 音楽鑑賞

マンガ 映画

Cell phone texting

TV (live/recorded)

Shopping

Comics (manga)

Music

Movies

Page 54: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(2) Importance as No. 1 Source of Information (“What was the media source through which you first learned that Barack

Obama had been elected president? -BPO Survey)

73.9

8.8

7.2

3.3

4.3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

テレビ

家族・友人

携帯電話ネット

PCネット

新聞

TV

Family/Friends

Cell phone Net

PC Net

Newspaper

Page 55: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(3) Feeling of Effectiveness (“Which media do you think are most effective in terms of the following

needs?” -BPO Survey)

81.0

69.9

54.0

78.3

69.9

66.8

7.5

11.1

20.8

9.3

23.0

5.8

15.0

14.2

36.7

20.8

36.7

12.8

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0

世の中の動きに おくれないでついていく

関心がなかったことでも 知識が得られる

自分の好きなことや 趣味を深めることができる

他人との共通の話題が得られる

時間をつぶす

思い切り泣いたり感動する

地上波テレビ 動画配信サイト 動画投稿サイト

「役に立っている」の回答比率

Land-based TV Video Transmission Sites Video Posting Sites

Keeping up with things

Acquiring knowledge even concerning things one had not been aware of

Allows me to get more into a personal hobby or interest

Allows me to acquire topics for conversation with others

Can kill time

Can be moved to tears, etc. as much as one wants

Percentage of answers declaring “Useful”

Page 56: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

(4) Reliability-A Great Deal of Trust in TV (“How much trust do you have in the following media?” -BPO Survey)

0.7

1.0

3.2

2.3

28.4

4.5

23.6

8.4

12.3

37.9

42.4

50.3

47.1

61.3

33.6

50.3

40.8

35.6

16.8

33.9

10.7

37.4

25.8

16.5

16.5

3.9

11.9

4.2

20.0

10.7

1.6

3.2

0.7

2.6

0.3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

ネットの掲示板の書き込み

ネットのブログ

ネットの記事

雑誌記事

新聞記事

テレビの情報番組・ワイドショー

テレビのニュース

非常に信頼 ある程度信頼 どちらとも あまり信頼せず 全く信頼せず Trust Greatly Trust to a Certain Extent Can’t Say Which

Don’t Trust Very Much Don’t Trust at All

TV news

TV information programs/”wide shows”

Newspaper articles

Magazine articles

Articles on the Internet

Net blogs

Postings on Net bulletin boards

Page 57: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Summary (1) The drift away from TV among the younger age groups continues. (2) Nevertheless, use of the Internet has not directly encroached on the

TV viewing time. Nor has the use of cell phones encroached on it. (3) Regarding at-home time, there is a suitable allocation of time among

various media. (4) Nor is time-shift viewing (recorded for later viewing) increasing. (5) However, recognition of TV’s degree of importance among media is

decreasing. (6) We are also seeing an increase in TV viewing while involved in other

media. → A taste for or interest in TV programs is decreasing, and “have to see”

demands are fading. (We’re forced to admit that this kind of feeling is reducing viewing time.)

Page 58: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

However, television still is important as:

(1) A method for killing free time, (2) As the No.1 source for information, and in the public mind it also enjoys high marks for (3) Sense of effectiveness, (4) Reliability

Page 59: Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010...Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series 2010 The University of Tokyo Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies Graduate School

Besides, ・ TV is an important supply source for other

amusement/entertainment software. (More than 40% of the content at accessed Net video provision sites was related to TV programming).

・ Original PC/cell phone Net content remains immature (particularly in that they have almost no news coverage capability).

→ Does the importance of TV as an information provider and contents creator still continue?