Global Climate Change Activities at the International

Rice Research InstituteRice Research Institute

Reiner WassmannReiner WassmannReiner WassmannInternational Rice Research Institute

Coordinator of the Rice and ClimateRice and Climate

Reiner WassmannInternational Rice Research Institute

Coordinator of the Rice and ClimateRice and ClimateCoordinator of the Rice and Climate Rice and Climate Change Consortium Change Consortium

(as CIM Integrated Expert)(as CIM Integrated Expert)

Coordinator of the Rice and Climate Rice and Climate Change Consortium Change Consortium

(as CIM Integrated Expert)(as CIM Integrated Expert)

INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTELos Baños, Philippines

Mission:Mission:

Reduce poverty and p yhunger;

Improve the health ofImprove the health of rice farmers and consumers;

Ensure environmental sustainability; Established 1960sustainability;

Capacity Building through research partnerships

IRRI’s Previous Projects Cli t / Cli t Chon Climate/ Climate Change

In 1961-62, studies on the effect of temperatureon rice in the growth chamberg

In 1971-72, studies on the effect of CO2 enrichment i i t h b

1991-1999, studies on CH4 emissions,

on rice in open-top chambers

Si 2006 Ri d Cli t Ch C ti

Temp/CO2 + UV-B effects and modeling

Since 2006, Rice and Climate Change Consortiumas a platform for assessing mitigation, adaptationand regional impactsand regional impacts

US-EPA project (1991-1995)

Open-top chambers (Temp / CO2 effects)(Temp./ CO2 effects)

Closed chambers (Methane emissions)

Interregional Program on Methane Emissions from Rice Fieldsfrom Rice Fields

(funded by UNDP/GEF, 1993-1999)

IrrigatedIrrigatedRainfedRainfedRainfedRainfedDeepwaterDeepwater

The Rice and Climate Change Consortium (RCCC)The Rice and Climate Change Consortium (RCCC)Since 2007Since 2007Since 2007Since 2007

Improving the Improving Impact on C Impact onImproving therice plant

Improving rice canopy management

Impact on C, N, and

water under different

pathways

Impact on ecosystem resilience and pests

Basic reserach on impacts and

optionspathways of land use

I t l b l d i l

options

Impact on global and regional rice production

Strategies for adaptation and

mitigation

Strategies for agroecological intensification

Strategies for response and mitigation intensification p

integration

Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice ProductionProduction

Emission scenarios

concentrationsemissions concentrationsemissions

Regional Resolution of Global Climate Models

PRECISPRECISModeling

ToolTool

P idiProviding Regional ClimatesClimates

for Impacts pStudies

Climate Scenarios/ Global and Regional

Best casescenario

Worst casescenario

Source: WWF

Modeled potential Rice Crop Yield DS 2000 [kg/ha] IR72Simulated increase in night time temperature

DS 2000 no change + 2 degree C + 4 degree C 11000

9000

10000

8000

6000

7000

5000

Annual means of daily max./ min. temperature, Annual means of daily max./ min. temperature, IRRIIRRIIRRIIRRI

25 0(º

C) 31.5

32.0

y = 2.3 + 0.014x (r2 = 0.14)

ºC) 24.5

25.0

y = -65.1 + 0.044x (r2 = 0.68)P > 0.05 P < 0.01

pera

ture

(

31.0

pera

ture

(

24.0

imum

tem

30.0

30.5

mum

tem

p

23.0

23.5

Max

i

29.5 Min

i

22.5

insignificant trend 1.19ºC increase in 27 years

Year1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

29.0

Year1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

22.0

(IRRI Climate Unit)(IRRI Climate Unit)Data from IRRI Climate Unit(IRRI Climate Unit)(IRRI Climate Unit)Data from IRRI Climate Unit

LongLong--term field experiment at IRRI (1975term field experiment at IRRI (1975--2005)2005)s

ha-1

)

9.0

9.5

10.0y = -393.8 + 36.6x - 0.83x2 (r2 = 0.77) y = -9.0 + 1.6x - 0.04x2 (r2 = 0.26)

2005)2005)n

yiel

d (to

ns

7 5

8.0

8.5

• ••

• ••

22.0 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 16 17 18 19 20 21 2229.0 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0

Gra

in

6.5

7.0

7.5

Minimum temperature (ºC) Radiation (MJ m-2 day-1)Maximum temperature (ºC)

• 2004 dry season• 2005 dry seasons

(g m

-2)

1800

1850y = 5450 - 165.0x (r2 = 0.87) y = -9011 + 1076.1x - 26.9x2 (r2 = 0.71)

P < 0.0118

(tons

ha-

1 )un

d bi

omas

s

1650

1700

1750

17

22 0 22 5 23 0 23 5 24 0 16 17 18 19 20 21 2229 0 29 5 30 0 30 5 31 0 31 5 32 0Abo

vegr

ou

1500

1550

160016

1522.0 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 16 17 18 19 20 21 2229.0 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0A

Minimum temperature (ºC) Radiation (MJ m-2 day-1)Maximum temperature (ºC)Peng et al. 2004

Sensitivity to Heat StressLOW HIGH MEDIUM

y

PanicleGrain fillingPollination

Leaf tiller and root

Panicle development

g

Leaf, tiller and root development

Spikelet sterility induced b hi h t tby high temperature

at flowering

Temp. thresholdd ddepends on

humidity (ca. 34-35ºC in humid35 C in humid

tropics).

Sterility increases by 16%

ith 1ºCwith a 1ºC increase above Temp thresholdTemp. threshold

Frequency of Tropical CyclonesFrequency of Tropical Cyclones

TyphoonsC l

HurricanesCyclones

Cyclones

UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005, <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/tropical-cyclone-frequency>

Tropical Cyclones and Climate ChangeTropical Cyclones and Climate Change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007):

• As of now, ‘there is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones’.

• Under ongoing global warming, however, ‘it is likely that f t t i l l ill b i t ithfuture tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation…’.

New Sub1 lines after 17 days ysubmergence in field at IRRI

Samba-Sub1IR64-Sub1

IR49830 (Sub1)Samba IR64

IR42

IR64

IR64 S b1IR64

IR49830 (Sub1)

IR49830 (Sub1)

IR42

Samba

IR64-Sub1

Samba-Sub1

IR49830 (Sub1) IR64 Sub1

IR42

IR64-Sub1Samba

IR42

Samba-Sub1

IR49830 (Sub1)

Samba

IR64-Sub1IR49830 (Sub1)

IR64

Impact of Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar (May 2008)

Satellite photography of the I dd D ltIrrawaddy Delta

Before Nargis

After Nargis

Sea Level Trends/ Future

80sea level rise (cm) Scenarios

in study on

different scenarios60

∆45

Mekong Delta

40

∆20

2000 2050 2100

20

0

∆20

2000 2050 2100year

IPCC 2001IPCC 2001

IPCC 2007CC 00

Mega-Deltas of Asia

Extreme Climate Variability in the Philippines:Twelve-month (April-March) rainfall during El Niño years

1951-52 1953-54 1957-58 1968-69 1972-73 1976-77 1997-98

Twelve month (April March) rainfall during El Niño years

1982 83 1986 87 1991 92 1992 93 1993 94 1994 951982-83 1986-87 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95

Percentile*:Severe drought impact< 10Drought impact11 - 20

Near normal to above normal41 - 60*Percentile is a way of presenting

i bilit ith t t tiWay above normal condition61 - 80

Severe flood damage> 90

Moderate drought impact21 - 40 variability with respect to time.Potential flood damage81 - 90

Source: PAGASA (2000)

Adaptation to Climate Change

Funded by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

GenesGenes

MaizeMaize RiceRiceMaizeMaizeCC4 4

RiceRice(C(C33 CC44))

Alternate wetting and drying (AWD) Alternate wetting and drying (AWD)

16 Jan 2009 28Unit plot size: 5 x 5 m

‘Site-Specific Nutrient Management’ (SSNM)(SSNM)

Applying nutrients as d h d dand when needed

Adjusting nutrient j gapplication to crop needs in given location and season

Leaf Color Chart

AlternateAlternate WettingWettingAlternateAlternate--WettingWetting--andand--Drying (AWD)Drying (AWD)

affects the temperature affects the temperature regimes of soil water regimes of soil water regimes of soil, water, regimes of soil, water, and airand air

affects the transport of affects the transport of heat and greenhouse heat and greenhouse gases to the atmospheregases to the atmosphere

Eddy CovarianceEddy Covariance

CameraCamera

COCO22 / H/ H22O analyzerO analyzerSonic anemometerSonic anemometer

Radiation sensorsRadiation sensors

Sonic anemometerSonic anemometer

Data loggerData logger

Solar panelSolar panel

T / h idit bT / h idit bTemp / humidity probesTemp / humidity probes

BatteriesBatteries

Eddy CovarianceEddy Covariance

Air flow can be imagined as a horizontal flow of numerous rotating eddies

Th Edd C i S t th t f The Eddy Covariance System can measure the components of the eddies including the vertical wind component

CO2 Flux

1.0Non Flooded Flooded

-0.5

0.0

0.5(m

g/m

2 s)Non-Flooded Flooded

-1.5

-1.0

0.5

3/3 3/4 3/5 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16 3/17 3/18

Fc

3/3 3/4 3/5 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16 3/17 3/18

Time

COCO22 flux describes the exchange of COflux describes the exchange of CO22 between the between the COCO22 flux describes the exchange of COflux describes the exchange of CO22 between the between the surface and the atmospheresurface and the atmosphere

downward flux – atmospheric CO2 taken up by downward flux atmospheric CO2 taken up by the rice plant for photosynthesis

upward flux – CO2 being released from p 2 gecosystem respiration

Outlook…Outlook…

#8) Full GHG Accounting

#5) CO2/Heat Fl

#7) Landscape Model

Accounting

#6) CH4/ N2OFluxes #6) CH4/ N2Oemissions

#3) Soil-plant Interaction

#4) Trophic

#1)

Microbial Cycles#4) Trophic

Interaction

#2) )Carbon Nitrogen

Iron

Modelling emissions using DNDC model(DeNitrification-DeComposition)(DeNitrification DeComposition)

Inputs SOIL Texture, pH, C and N content

=> for 28 cropsC and N content

CLIMATETemp., rainfall

MANAGEMENTN inputs, tillage,irrigation etc.

Outputs

f i

irrigation etc.EMISSIONS (CO2, CH4 , N2O, NO, NO2, NH3 )

WATER BALANCE (Evaporation, transpiration)from Li et al.

2000

( p , p )

SOIL PROFILES (C and N contents, moisture etc.)

CROP PHENOLOGY (biomass etc)CROP PHENOLOGY (biomass etc)

Preventing Straw Burning

Technological options for using rice straw as renewable energy:energy:• combustion,• biogas technology (in combination with animalb ogas tec o ogy ( co b at o t a a

husbandry),• conversion of rice straw to ethanol,

d bi h t h l• … and bio-char technology.

Charred rice husks can be produced easily andbe produced easily and are used already

loamy Fluvisol sandy FluvisolCO2 CH4

CH4 CO2

Haefele, pers. Comm.Nohusk

Charr.husk

Plainhusk

Nohusk

Charr.husk

Plainhusk

‘Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)’:G ti b ditGenerating carbon credits

Carbon credits (CERs) represent the 

diff b h

mission

s difference between the baseline and actual 

emissions

ouse gas em

Green

ho

Project start

Historical Trend Time

SSM – Small Scale Methodology Proposal under Review

http://cdm.unfccc.int/UserManagement/FileStorage/4BTFS58C2AXGMPIVDOJEL3K1Y0UWRNSubmitted on 18 Dec. 2009

CDM rules in Marrakech Accord (2002)CDM rules in Marrakech Accord (2002)

• For 1st commitment period (2008-2010):The eligibility of land use, land-use change and g y gforestry project activities is limited to afforestation and reforestation.

• For future commitment periods (post 2012):• For future commitment periods (post 2012):Eligibility shall be decided as part of the negotiations on the 2nd commitment periodnegotiations on the 2nd commitment period.

Different types of fundingDifferent types of funding

• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)(CDM)

• An international Fund for mitigation projects

• Voluntary commitments y

Conclusion I

Climate Change Miti tiMitigation:

Rice systems have to become more efficient in terms ofin terms of…

• Water use• Fertilizer uptake • Harvest index

Challenges of Mitigation = g gChallenges of advanced resource management

Conclusion IIClimate Change Adaptation:Adaptation:

Ri t h tRice systems have tobecome more resilientto…

• Drought• Submergence• Submergence • Salinity• Heat waves

Challenges of Adaptation = gChallenges in unfavorable environments

Thank youThank you