Global Climate Change

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson

Global Climate Change

Wicked Problems


Central Case: Rising seas may flood the Maldives






Our dynamic climate• Climate: an area’s long-term atmospheric conditions

- Temperature, moisture content, wind, precipitation, etc.

- Influences everything around us

• Weather: conditions at localized sites over hours or days

• Global climate change: describes trends and variations in Earth’s climate

- Temperature, precipitation, storm frequency

• Global warming: an increase in Earth’s average temperature

- Earth’s climate has varied naturally through time.

- The rapid climatic changes taking place now are due to human activity: fossil fuels, combustion, and deforestation.


What changes climate?

• Changes in:

- Sun’s output

- Earth’s orbit

- Drifting continents

- Volcanic eruptions

- Greenhouse gases

Global Warming

The E-M Spectrum

The Sun’s Energy Warms the Earth

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=l8xEfF9VLiyjyM&tbnid=V-d_S8QSEKv9FM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmato48.com%2Ftag%2Fmeditation%2F&ei=gAH_UavUAeKWiAK8tYC4AQ&bvm=bv.50165853,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNFzTgBNAORf84AG-ClHW5K-QaA4aQ&ust=1375710775231977

Fate of Solar Radiation Fate of Solar Radiation Reaching the EarthReaching the Earth

reflectionClouds (20%)

snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)

atmospheric dust (6%)

reflectionClouds (20%)

snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)

atmospheric dust (6%)


absorptionOceans + Land (51%)

Atmosphere (16%)

Clouds (3%)

Plant photosynthesis (<1%)

absorptionOceans + Land (51%)

Atmosphere (16%)

Clouds (3%)

Plant photosynthesis (<1%)


Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)

Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)

Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)

Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)

Radiation

Earth’s Atmosphere

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=33DnZNL-HHj3kM&tbnid=_tZlhsfzdNApcM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.grc.nasa.gov%2FWWW%2Fk-12%2Fairplane%2Fatmosphere.html&ei=xVr-Ud-9OOahiQKI8YDYBg&bvm=bv.50165853,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNH_krnHjsabDVhfV_fktAYjqPNJtA&ust=1375710251423840

The Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse GasesCarbon Dioxide

MethaneNitrous OxideWater Vapor

Ozone


Thousands of Years Before Present

Tem

per

atu

re C

han

ge

(oF

)

Atm

osp

her

ic C

O2

(pp

m)

Year

Temperature

Carbon Dioxide

Tem

per

atu

re C

han

ge

(oF

)

Atm

osp

her

ic C

O2

(pp

m)

Atmospheric CO2 & Surface Temperature TrendsAtmospheric CO2 & Surface Temperature Trends




Sea level rise

Increased plant primary productivity

Shifts in the distribution of plants and animals

Water contamination and outbreaks of water-borne diseases

Increased storm severity

Potential melting or enlargement of polar ice caps

Changes to patterns of rainfall

More severe droughts or increased precipitation

changes to ocean circulation patterns

Predicted changes with increased greenhouse warming

Ice Age 18,000 years ago


Sea Level Changes due to Ice Ages and Ice Cap Melting


Year

Ch

ang

es in

Mea

n S

ea L

evel

Mean Sea Level RiseMean Sea Level Rise


Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Comparison between 1979 & 2012Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Comparison between 1979 & 2012

Sep 21, 1979

Sep 21, 1979

50% loss in sea ice


Early Fall Arctic Sea Ice ExtentEarly Fall Arctic Sea Ice ExtentS

ea Ic

e E

xten

t (m

illio

n k

m2 )

Year

Average Monthly Arctic Sea Ice ExtentSep 1979-2011


Greenland Seasonal Surface Melting

Surface melting


Permafrost


Permafrost


Permafrost melting


Permafrost melting


Permafrost melting

Drunken forest

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Year

North Atlantic Tropical Storms10-year running average

North Atlantic Tropical Storms10-year running average

Nam

ed T

rop

ical

Sto

rms


Larsen B Ice Shelf

• 220 m thick

• Lost 5700 km2 (2x Rhode Island)

• Reduction of 40%

1 Meter Sea Level Rise Waikiki1 Meter Sea Level Rise Waikiki

http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/HMRG/FloodingOahu/index.phphttp://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/sealevel/waikiki.html


Sea Level Rise• Destroys coastal habitat (e.g. salt marshes,

mangroves)• Destroys human property• Increases pollution• Decreases freshwater supply

Venice, 2008


Effect on Marine Life• Phytoplankton bloom due to light and

temperature cues• Changes will impact food web• Hypoxia may result


Effect on Fisheries

• Migrations are in response to temperature• May impact fisheries


Effect on Corals• Coral bleaching • Leads to loss of habitat and food for reef-

dependent species


CurrentsOceanic conveyor belt may change ocean currents • Currents carry plankton• Bring food and oxygen• Distribute eggs and larvae• Remove wastes and pollutants


Salinity• Animals have a narrow range of tolerance• Glacial melting inputs lots of freshwater


Projected changes in precipitation

• High latitudes = increased precipitation• Low and middle latitudes = decreased

precipitation will worsen water shortages in developing countries


Acidity• CO2 makes water acidic• Corals and other calcium

carbonate species can’t make skeleton

• Impact on plankton development impacts food web

• Coral calcification rate reduced 15-20%

• Skeletal density decreased, branches thinner


Temperature• Higher temperature results in less O2

- Results in hypoxia• Ice melting leaves no resting/hunting areas for

polar bears• Antarctic Krill impacts food web


Invasive Species• Algae smothers coral• Invasive species out-compete natives


Weather Events

More severe weather patterns• El Niño• Hurricanes • Mudslides• Forest Fires• Drought


Sea Surface Temperature

Sep. 23, 2015 http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/


Origin and paths of tropical cyclones


El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• El Niño = warm surface current in equatorial eastern Pacific that occurs periodically around Christmastime

• Southern Oscillation = change in atmospheric pressure over Pacific Ocean accompanying El Niño

• ENSO describes a combined oceanic-atmospheric disturbance


El Niño

• Oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean

• Occurs during December• 2 to 7 year cycle

Sea Surface Temperature

Atmospheric Winds

Upwelling


Normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean


El Niño conditions (ENSO warm phase)


La Niña conditions (ENSO cool phase; opposite of El Niño)


El NiñoNon El Niño

1997


Non El Niño

El Niño

thermocline

upwelling


El Niño events over the last 62 years

82-83

65-6672-73

57-5886-87 91-92

94-95

97-98

02-0309-10

Red - Strong El NinoBlue- Strong La NinaBlack – moderate (either)

50-5155-56

64-65

70-71

73-74

75-7688-89

98-9999-00

07-08 10-11

11-12


Effects of severe El Niños


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The IPCC 2013 report concluded that it is more than 95% likely that most global warming is due to humans.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/09/27/8-damning-facts-from-the-u-n-s-climate-change-report.html


Shall we pursue mitigation or adaptation?• Mitigation: pursue actions that reduce

greenhouse gas emissions to lessen severity of future climate change

- Renewable energy, efficiency, farm practices to protect soil integrity, preventing deforestation

• Adaptation: accept climate change is happening and pursue strategies to minimize its impacts

- Uses technology and engineering, adjusting farming to cope with droughts, etc.

- Criticized as sidestepping

• Both are necessary


Transportation

• Ways to help:

- Make vehicles more fuel-efficient, hybrid cars

- Drive less

- Public transportation is the most effective way to conserve energy, reduce pollution.

- Live closer to your workplace, so you can bike or walk.

- Design cities and workplaces to be more friendly to pedestrian and bicycle traffic.


Conventional cars are inefficient

The typical automobile is highly inefficient.

Electric Hydrogen


The Kyoto Protocol seeks to limit emissions

• The United States will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol. - It requires industrialized nations to reduce emissions, but

not rapidly industrializing nations (China and India).

China

India


Carbon offsets are in vogue• Emissions trading programs allow participants to buy

carbon offsets.• Carbon offset: a voluntary payment to enable

another entity to reduce emissions that one is unable to reduce oneself

Hawaii California 1 flight = 2,268 CO2

6 trees/passenger = 1 round trip flight


You can reduce your own footprint

• The most influential factor may be the collective decisions of millions of people.

• Our carbon footprint expresses the amount of carbon we are responsible for emitting.


1.3bt980m

4m28t

890m

How much CO2 is created by _____/year

1.4bt

1.5m

15t

2000t

7t

30t

1.9bt610m

373t

4.3bt

100t682m

8.3bt

810m

Iceland

Germany Brazil

Ave. world citizen

Ave. UK citizen

Ave. N.A. citizen

Malawi

Rearing a child (carbon high) Russia

Ave. Australian

U.S.U.K.

China.

Rearing a child.

France

IndiaCanada

Australia

Rearing a child (carbon consciously)

http://calculator.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx


1.Invest in clean energy 2.Energy efficient cars 3.Create green jobs 4.Become carbon neutral 5.Become more energy efficient 6.Protect forests 7.Tax global warming pollution8.Coal plants use new technology 9.Cap CO2 emissions10. make low polluting biofuels more available

Top 10 solutions to climate change


Activity: What is your Super Power?


Amazing CO2 Absorber


QUESTION: Review“Global warming” is defined as:

a) Atmospheric conditions at localized sites

b) Atmospheric conditions over hours or days

c) An area’s long-term atmospheric conditions

d) An increase in Earth’s average temperature

e) Trends and variations in Earth’s precipitation


QUESTION: Review

“Global warming potential,” when referring to greenhouse gases, means:

a) The ability of a molecule to contribute to global warming

b) The ability of a molecule to prevent global warming

c) Carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse gas

d) Energy travels back to the Earth, after being emitted

e) That all other molecules are measured against CFCs


QUESTION: Review

Which of the following are major contributors of global warming?

a) Burning fossil fuels and recyclingb) Deforestation and nuclear

energyc) Burning fossil fuels and

deforestationd) Fossil fuels and nuclear energye) Fossil fuels and planting forests


QUESTION: Review

Which of the following greenhouse gases is not the most potent, but is extremely abundant?

a) Methaneb) Water vaporc) Carbon dioxided) Nitrous oxidee) Aerosols


QUESTION: Review

What would happen if the NADW (North American Deep Water) conveyor belt were disrupted?

a) Europe would get warmer.b) Greenland would get warmer.c) The U.S. would get warmer.d) Europe would get cooler.e) Greenland would get cooler.


QUESTION: Review

The 2013 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made it clear that:

a) Climate is changingb) Humans are the causec) This change is already exerting impactsd) Observed trends in temperature are well

documentede) All of the above are included in this report.


QUESTION: ReviewOne result of climate change is that sea surfaces will rise, which means that:

a) More ice will be formed in the Arcticb) Coral reefs will expand their range

throughout the worldc) Storms will be stronger and last

longerd) The number of storms will increase,

but not their strengthe) Nothing will happen; climate change

is still debatable


QUESTION: Review

What happens as ice melts in polar regions?

a) More heat is reflected into spaceb) Glaciers re-freeze at nightc) Exposed soils absorb heat and

make melting worsed) Polar bears learn to like the sune) Eskimos can now sell their

property at a profit


QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data

Which statement is supported by this figure?

a) CO2 emissions have increased drastically.

b) CO2 emissions have stabilized recently.

c) CO2 emissions fluctuate only in Hawaii.

d) CO2 emissions average 320 ppm.

e) CO2 emissions don’t generally fluctuate.

Documents

Global Climate Change