Global Black Friday Forecast 2021 - simon-kucher.com

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Global Black Friday Forecast 2021

November 2021

1) Awareness of Black Friday was not asked in China in 2021; 2) Global Black Friday Forecast study was not conducted in 2020 for this country, hence, no comparison possibleSource: Simon-Kucher & Partners online survey conducted in: Belgium, Brazil, China, Columbia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UAE, UK, USA (N=11,674)

"Have you heard of Black Friday?"

Awareness of Black Friday

Share of respondents High awareness of

Black Friday across all countries

Awareness increased across all countries

Europe Asia/ Middle East

1

Simon-Kucher & Partners I Global Black Friday Forecast 2021 I Global results

Americas

100%

98% 100%

99%

100%

100%

100%

87%

98%

97% 10

0%

94%10

0%

100%

100%

99%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99%

100%

98%

97% 10

0%

98%

98%

BE DE DK ES IT NL NO SE UK CN SA TR UAE US BR COL MX

2020 2021

2 2 22 2

2

1) Awareness of Cyber Monday was not asked in China; 2) Global Black Friday Forecast study was not conducted in 2020 for this country, hence, no comparison possibleSource: Simon-Kucher & Partners online survey conducted in: Belgium, Brazil, China, Columbia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UAE, UK, USA (N=11,674)

"Have you heard of Cyber Monday?"

Awareness of Cyber Monday

Share of respondents Cyber Monday still not

as famous as Black Friday across most countries

However, respondents’ awareness increased for most countries


1


Americas

86%

52%

85%

80%

70%

69%

89%

40%

34%

60%

90%

64%

80%

69%

83%

75%

73% 76

%

76%

87%

27%

49%

40%

92%

47%

78%

67%


2020 2021

2 2 22 2

3

1) Including only participants up to 64 years old; 2) Awareness of Single’s Day was not asked in the United States; 3) Global Black Friday Forecast study was not conducted in 2020 for this country, hence, no comparison possibleSource: Simon-Kucher & Partners online survey conducted in: Belgium, Brazil, China, Columbia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UAE, UK, USA (N=11,674)

"Have you heard of Singles’ Day?"

Awareness of Singles‘ Day

Singles‘ Day is the Chinese shopping event

Outside of China, mainly well-known in the European Nordics countries

However, in some countries respondents’ awareness is increasing

Majority of different countries’ respondents is unaware of the Singles‘ Day

Share of respondents1


2


Americas

32%

47%

57%

36%

48%

44%

30%

100%

87%

43% 49

%

29%

26%

48%

44%

31%

47% 52

%

52%

21%

100%

32%

42%

31%

26%

25% 31

%


2020 2021

3 3 33 3

4

50%

29%

72%79%

49%

38%

56%

95%

77%

69%

85%

54%50%

61%

47%

74% 72%

55%50% 52% 51%

95%

71%

88%

72% 70%

83%

70%

79%


2020 2021

1) Global Black Friday Forecast study was not conducted in 2020 for this country, hence, no comparison possibleSource: Simon-Kucher & Partners online survey conducted in: Belgium, Brazil, China, Columbia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UAE, UK, USA (N=11,674)

"Do you plan to buy something on Black Friday and/or Cyber Monday this year (for China: Single’s Day)?"

Willingness to buy on Black Friday and Cyber Monday

Majority of respondents intend to buy something on Black Friday/ Cyber Monday

Almost across all countries willingness to buy is over 50%

Share of respondents



Americas

1 1 11 1

5

Source: Simon-Kucher & Partners online survey conducted in: Belgium, Brazil, China, Columbia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UAE, UK, USA (N=11,674)

"What do you expect the average discount to be on Black Friday and/ or Cyber Monday (for China: Single’s Day)?"

Expected discount level on Black Friday and Cyber Monday

On average, respondents across all countries surveyed anticipate discount levels between 26-40%.Most respondents from European countries expect discount levels between 10-40%, whereas in the Middle East discount

expectations seem to be higherSimon-Kucher & Partners I Global Black Friday Forecast 2021 I Global results

Share of respondentsShare of respondents: EuropeShare of respondents: Asia/ Middle East Share of respondents: Americas

4%

42%

37%

14%

3%4%

49%

36%

8%

1%3%

38% 40%

15%

4%3%

41% 43%

11%

2%1%

23%

57%

16%

3%4%

41%

38%

12%

4%

1%

19%

48%

27%

5%3%

36% 42

%

15%

4%5%

43%

37%

11%

4%

Less than 10%discount

Between 10%and 25%discount



More than 60%discount

BE DE DK ES IT NL NO SE UK

11%

55%

30%

3% 1%

4%

23%

29%

28%

16%

3%

24%

36%

25%

12%

3%

24%

32%

25%

16%

Lessthan 10%discount

Between10% and

25%discount

Between26% and

40%discount

Between41% and

60%discount

Morethan 60%discount

CN SA TR UAE

4%

34% 39

%

18%

5%

2%

23%

39%

25%

10%

2%

27%

37%

26%

8%

2%

30%

43%

19%

7%

Lessthan 10%discount

Between10% and

25%discount

Between26% and

40%discount

Between41% and

60%discount

Morethan 60%discount

US BR COL MX

= average

6

14%

35%

20%

20%

19% 23%

11%

14% 25

%

25% 31

%

26%

28%

17%

34%

25%

23% 30

% 38%

25%

23%

11% 24

%

24% 39

%

33%

24%

38%

32%



"Where do you plan to buy on Black Friday and/or Cyber Monday (for China: Single’s Day)?"

Online vs. offline shopping preferences

Majority of respondents plans to shop online

Very high preference towards online in China

In only a few countries respondents prefer to shop offline, such as Norway, United Arab States and Columbia

However, survey respondents are increasingly preferring offline shopping in certain countries



57%

37% 48

%

48%

51%

42%

24%

70%

24% 29

%

22%

39%

42% 51

%

35% 46

%

45%

37%

34% 44

% 52%

70%

41% 55

%

27% 34

% 44%

28% 36

%


2020 2021Share of respondents preferring offline shopping

Americas

1 1 11 1

Share of respondents preferring online shopping

1 1 11 1

7

1) Exchange rates as of November 1, 2021; 2) Global Black Friday Forecast study was not conducted in 2020 for this country, hence, no comparison possibleSource: Simon-Kucher & Partners online survey conducted in: Belgium, Brazil, China, Columbia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UAE, UK, USA (N=11,674)

"How much do you plan to spend on Black Friday and/or Cyber Monday in total (for China: Single’s Day)?"

Planned budget for Black Friday and Cyber Monday

Average budget 236€ Highest budgets in

China, Saudi Arabia and United Arab States

In most of the countries, the budgets increased compared to last year


205

278

195

188 20

4

238

223

298

340

207

340

202

191

239

239

215

214 222

214

198

254

399

280

266

330

233

161

152

207


2020 2021


Average budget in EUR1

Americas

2 2 22 2

8


"Was your general shopping behaviour different during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/early 2021)?"

Impact of COVID-19 on general shopping behavior

COVID-19 has largely impacted the shopping behavior

Across all countries over 60% of respondents agreed that the pandemic impacted their shopping behavior

Strongest impact on shopping behavior is observed in Asia / Middle East and European countries that have been severely hit by COVID-19 (Spain, United Kingdom)

Share of respondents



57% 62

%

59%

74%

66% 69

%

60%

59%

72% 75

%

85%

84% 88

%

72%

92%

91%

89%

43%

38% 41

%

26%

34%

31%

40%

41%

28%

25%

15%

16%

12%

28%

8% 9% 11%


Yes No

Americas

1 1 11 1

9


"What did you do differently during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/early 2021)?"

Behavioral changes during the COVID-19 pandemic 81

%

73%

73%

60%

90%

50%

77%

65%

82%

72%

68%

61%

80%

59% 69

%

51%

67%

67%

81%

53%

80%

49%

70%

66%

88%

72%

67%

57%63

% 72% 77

%

57%65

% 71% 74

%

57%

Shifted groceryshopping to online

Shifted shopping toonline (excl. grocery)

Increased localshopping

Reduced spending


50%

47%

81%

64%69

%

64%

83%

53%

40% 46

%

79%

80%

60%

72%

81%

51%

Shiftedgrocery

shopping toonline

Shiftedshopping toonline (excl.

grocery)

Increasedlocal

shopping

Reducedspending

CN SA TR UAE

66%

65%

77%

53%

70%

61% 69

%

41%

66%

57% 60

%

51%

63%

55%

68%

53%

Shiftedgrocery

shopping toonline


grocery)

Increasedlocal

shopping

Reducedspending

US BR COL MX


Share of respondents: EuropeShare of respondents: Asia/ Middle East Share of respondents: Americas

The COVID-19 pandemic changed the shopping behaviour of respondent across countries,they shop more online, locally, and partially have reduced their spending

10


"Now that things are returning to normal, which of your behavioral changes has remained?"

Lasting behavioral changes after the COVID-19 pandemic 63

%

73% 83

%

56%60

%

70%

88%

75%

45%

63%

77%

65%

77% 84

% 87%

66%73

%

84%

78%

72%

63%

63% 71

%

60%

49%

70%

84%

76%79

%

78% 81

%

68%

65% 70

% 73%

70%

Shiftedgrocery

shopping toonline

Shiftedshopping

to online (excl.grocery)

Increasedlocal

shopping

Reducedspending


75%

73%

56%

50%56

%

70%

52% 61

%

81%

81%

65%

52%

66%

68%

58%

72%

Shiftedgrocery

shopping toonline


grocery)

Increasedlocal

shopping

Reducedspending

CN SA TR UAE

70%

70% 74

% 83%

76% 85

%

78% 86

%

77% 85

%

82%

77%82

% 89%

92%

82%

Shiftedgrocery

shopping toonline


grocery)

Increasedlocal

shopping

Reducedspending

US BR COL MX


Share of respondents: EuropeShare of respondents: Asia/ Middle East Share of respondents: Americas

Most respondents answered that they will maintain the behavioral changes learned from the pandemic.Globally, 75% of respondents say they intend to continue to increase the amount of local shopping they do

and 69% of respondents say they will maintain their lower spending budgets11

12Simon-Kucher & Partners I Global Black Friday Forecast 2021 I Global results

Your contacts for the study: Please do not hesitate to contact us!

Nina Scharwenka

PartnerCompetence Center Consumer Goods & Retail

Munich officeLuise-Ullrich-Straße 14 80636 Munich, GermanyPhone: +49 89 544793 [email protected]

Hamburg officeAm Sandtorkai 7420457 Hamburg, GermanyPhone: +49 40 309978 [email protected]

Frederike von Wissel

Senior DirectorCompetence CenterConsumer Goods & Retail

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Global Black Friday Forecast 2021 - simon-kucher.com