Global and EU context of Biofuels and Biomassceeweb.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/GlobalEU_Context...May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels Climate Change is No 1 global issue

May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels

Global and EU context of Biofuels and Biomass

Biofuelwatchwww.biofuelwatch.org.uk

introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council, UK


Summary of presentation• Climate Change• Key issues for campaigners• Policy and Legislation problems• Sustainability criteria• Demand reduction and policy

strategies (transport sector)• Biomass, forestry• Gaian System issues


Climate Change is No 1 global issue

• Global food crisis, energy costs, peak oil, economic/credit crucial too

Current trends

90% reductions- industrialised

countries

• Have less than 10 years to start (UK Stern review etc)

• Solutions will need to be social, political and technical

GHGs


‘Positive’ climate feedbacks –not on political radar

• IPCC Assessment Reports are scientifically conservative.– Are constrained by what is politically and

economically acceptable.– Are also some two years out of date when

published.

• Dynamic positive feedbacks – emerging science during last 2 years

• UK All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group (APPCCG) trying to highlight


US / EU Biofuel Policy –going off the graph

EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now)

2010 2020

US – 20% by 2020 (4% now)


Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers• Government and corporate subsidy and

promotion• Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms

– Year-on-year economic growth– Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics

• Short term “energy security” fix– Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq– Stabilising Oil price?– EU / US “Oil independence”

• New global mega-industry and infrastructure– agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors– car manufacturers avoid more efficient vehicles – refining, tankage and shipping sectors – commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn)


Technology for or against climate, ecology and people?

• Humanity cannot afford false solutions • Climate Change is Complex

– Life and Earth are part of a whole system– must consider systemic view

• Sound science essential• Evidence based approach essential• New technologies must be subject to

thorough scrutiny/review on social, human and ecological impacts


Agrofuels –no public policy debate

• Even current 1% EU penetration has taken us into ‘downstream’ phase of implementation

• Yet, there has been no consistent or complete scientific and policy scrutiny

• Bypassed by Governments and industry

• Public policy debate is urgently needed – moratorium is needed to facilitate this


Emission reduction• "it would obviously be insane if we had a

policy to try and reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the use of biofuels that's actually leading to an increase in the greenhouse gases from biofuels."

Prof Bob Watson, UK DEFRA chief scientist, March 2008

• Descending the emissions curve is crucial, BUT it is not everything –we must understand the other impacts in the whole system


What are key issues for NGOs?

• Greenhouse gas (GHG) balancesIndirect, Land Use Change (LUC), N2O, CO2

• Environmental impacts:Deforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity,

water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals

• Social impacts:Poverty, land grabbing, land conflicts, human

rights, labour, food security and sovereignty

• The concerns and calls from many organisations in the Global South


Hundreds of NGOs in Latin America, Asia

and Africa have spoken out against large-scale biofuel

monocultures.


From African BN document• “In Uganda, there is an apparent failure to

recognise that by encouraging a favourable climate for agrofuels, foreign companies focussed on export are likely to take over the direction of biofuel production” Timothy Byakola, Uganda

• “The most fertile lands, with best access to water are being targeted, even though these lands are already being used for food production by small-scale farmers”Abdallah Mkindee, Tanzania


From African BN document• “There seems to be a lack of clarity over

whether investment and targets are aimed at production of biofuels for the Zambian market or for export. It seems that companies such as D1 Oils may be promoting biofuels as a domestic energy strategy, in order to open the door to amenable legislation, while really intending to focus biofuel production on the export market”. Matonga Mundia, Zambia


Sawit Watch, Indonesian NGO• “Palm oil for biofuels increases social

conflicts and undermines land reform in Indonesia…It is unavoidable that, as a consequence of Europe's biofuels policy, the land rights of indigenous peoples and local communities will be relinquished further, and that food security will be undermined and lands for agricultural purposes and subsistence livelihoods will diminish.”


Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the

Earth Nigeria• “It is a push by industry to make

another scramble for Africa, grab the land and continue with business as usual. The industrial bio-energy push to do increased bio-energy demand will be nothing other than an effort at extending the frontiers of neo-colonialism in its continued march on the back of the fabled market forces”


Landless Movement of Brazil (MST)

• “We can't call this a ‘bio-fuels program’. We certainly can't call it a ‘bio-diesel program’. Such phrases use the prefix ‘bio-‘ to subtly imply that the energy in question comes from ‘life’ in general. This is illegitimate and manipulative. We need to find a term in every language that describes the situation more accurately, a term like agro-fuel. This term refers specifically to energy created from plant products grown through agriculture.”


from a declaration by Latin American NGOs

• “We want food sovereignty, not biofuels…While Europeans maintain their lifestyle based on automobile culture, the population of Southern countries will have less and less land for food crops and will loose its food sovereignty…We are therefore appealing to the governments and people of the European Union countries to seek solutions that do not worsen the already dramatic social and environmental situation of the peoples of Latin America, Asia and Africa. “



Do Agrofuels save emissions?• Agrofuel infrastructure is built on

Fossil Fuel infrastructure– Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based

– fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions

–Feedstock transport, shipping, ports–Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ;

process chemicals


Agriculture/Land Use already 30-40% of global GHGs

• Deforestation, agriculture and peat

From Stern Report

The Land Use risk

Exporting emissions from

Northern transport to Southern

agriculture and land use

Also applies to Northern

agriculture(set aside etc)

Agriculture

Land Use & Conversion


Agrofuel LUC will create further massive emissions

• A one-off GHG hit that takes many years to repay

‘Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas, or grasslands to produce food-based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States

creates a ‘biofuel carbon debt’ by releasing 17 to 840 times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions these biofuels provide by displacing fossil fuels.’

• Fargione and Searchinger papers, Science, February 2008

• Peatland rainforest -> Palm Oil: 840 years to repay

• But Palm Oil plantations only 25 years lifetime

Massive destruction beyond N2O - Agrofuels are

accelerating climate change

Deforestation for oil palms, Colombia

Fires to clear land for palm oil, KalimantanPhoto by Nordin, Save our Borneo


Some US examplesDirect land use change• Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to

corn – 48 years C debt (Searchinger et al, Science, February 2008) – EU/UK set aside / wheat, OSR

• corn/soy rotation to continuous cornIndirect land use change• deforestation for grazing / pasture / feed

lands displaced by sugar cane / soya(Brazil)

• deforestation for new soy to “replace” soy no longer exported by the United States


N20 needs further study• microbes convert N fertiliser to N2O • Underestimated (IPCC) - Crutzen• oilseed rape biodiesel, for example,

is up to 70% worse for the climate than fossil fuel diesel (also corn ethanol)

• UK and EU Biofuels GHG calculations in scientific doubt

• Nitrogen pollution – Baltic, Gulf of Mexico


EU/UK Government figures NOW in complete scientific doubt

• From LowCVPpresentation to UK Bioenergy conference Sept 2007

Corn Ethanol -50%Oil Seed rape

biodiesel -70%

LUC


Climate Impacts of Agrofuels –not on political radar until recently

• N2O and LUC GHG science only just emerging (although predicted for years)

• ‘Green fuel’ greenwash campaign by technologists, Government and Industry

• California - Low Carbon Fuel Standard Program – LUC data being presented

• UK – Gallagher/RFA review yet to report


Food vs Fuel• Lester Brown has warned since 2006• UN FAO, September 2007

– “Developing countries face serious social unrest as they struggle to cope with soaring food prices”

• UN FAO, February 2008– “We will have a significant gap … in food aid… ,

and we will need an extra half billion dollars just to meet existing assessed needs.“

• UK UN/Brown summit, April 2008– Biofuels highlighted as a key issue


Food crisis is not just biofuels …

• IFPRI estimate that a biofuel moratorium NOW would reduce food prices by 20% in 1 year (UN FAO)– ‘shock’ to food prices (Beddington)

• Commodity Speculation• Climate change, poor harvests and

droughts• Increasing meat consumption –

India, China


Urgent IssuesEU/UK Wheat Ethanol Surge

EU Focus has been on biodiesel


East Europe Production Capacity (million litres ethanol)

18AmochimRomania

Starch36Cargill Polska (Wroclaw)

Cereals: 50% wheat, 40% maize, barley, rye; 10% molasses

100Akwawit (Leszno)Poland

Rye, wheat, triticale31BiofutureLithuania

12Jaunpagastas (Riga)Latvia

Cereals, maize40Györ Distillery (Györ)

Cereals, maize75Hungrana (Szabadegyhaza)Hungary

Sugar beet20Agroetanol TTD (Dobrovice)Czech Republic

Maize10Euro Ethyl GmbH (Silistra)Bulgaria

FeedstockPCCompanyMS

From www.ebio.org


East Europe Production Capacity under construction

Wheat75Slovnafta (Bratislava)Slovenia

Corn138 EnviralSlovakia

Cereals100BioetanLithuania

Maize 30 kt90First Hungarian Bioethanol Kft(Elsö Magyar BioethanolTermelökst)

Maize175Hungrana Kft. Hungary

Cereals, maize 70Ethanol Energy (Vrdy)

Cereals100Korfil a.s. (Vrdy)

Sugar beet720 Ktonnes

60 Agroetanol TTD (Dobrovice)

Cereals (possibly sugar as well)

100 PLP (Trmice)Czech Republic

13Crystal Chemicals

Maize30Euro Ethyl GmbH (Silistra)Bulgaria

FeedstockPCCompanyMS



UK Legislation RTFO• Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (RTFO)• Parliament disquiet, Oct 2007

– No sustainability criteria until 2011 – For : 10 (LAB – de facto whip)– Against/Abstain : 5 (CON) and 2 (LibDem)

• MPs called for moratorium (January + May)• UK Biofuel law came in on April 15th 2008

– 2.5% biofuel at he pump (5% by 2010)– In midst of global food crisis– Against warnings of senior scientists / policy makers– With UK Gallagher review outstanding– UK ministers - Darling/Wicks/Brown/Alexander all urging

caution– LOW PUBLIC CONFIDENCE


• Confusion–Renewables Directive

•10% by volume biofuels by 2020

–Fuel Quality Directive (FQD)•could force up to 26-28% BFs

–UK / France / Germany •all talking of capping targets (ie not above 5% or 7%)

EU Legislation


Immature discipline• Driven by interests of industry and

government– Where are NGO stakeholders?

• Enforcement – How can agricultural system and supply chains

across planet be audited?

Many omissions• Direct and indirect GHGs (leakage)

– Existing agriculture displaced by agrofuelsmoves into new areas

• Direct and indirect environmental impactsDeforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity,

water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals

Sustainability criteria (1)


Sustainability criteria (2)• Direct and indirect social impacts

Poverty, land conflicts, human rights, labour, food security and sovereignty

• Macro impacts through commodity price shifts not handled– Amazon deforestation ←→ soy price

• US Corn for ethanol displaces US soy => soy price– EU oilseed rape use causes palm oil prices

causes palm oil expansion• Start times (holes in a leaky buckets)

– UK RTFO writes off peat land converted before 2005

– EU : No GHG target until 2013 for plantations before 2008


GHG Calculators• Largely look at processing side not

agriculture side• Weighted to favour industry

–Default values often weighted in favour of poor GHG biofuels

• Direct and In-direct land use change (LUC) not understood or covered

• Ditto N2O


US Legislation• Energy Bill 20% biofuel by 2020• 25%-33% corn crop diverted (for less

than 4% ethanol)• Bush-Lula agreement• 2nd generation fuels over-hyped

• This week: McCain (and 22 Republican senators) calling for US ethanol targets to be cut back

• Obama has voiced concern


Why did we take the wrong path with biofuels?

• The ‘Green Fuel’ line over spun by scientists, government and industry

• Environmentalists, Voices from the Global South not listened to

• Government policies driven by:–Being seen ‘to do something’–Energy security NOT climate security

• All the above are lessons for future


Second generation BFs etc• Technology will not deliver

– in time (very complex technology)– in quantity (scalability issues)– EU targets

April 2008: In the view of the European Environmental Agency Scientific Committee the land required to meet the 10 % target exceeds this available [EU arable] land area even if a considerable contribution of second generation fuels is assumed.

• Cellulosic technology – negative energy return (Patzek, Pimental etc)– GHG balances – wishful thinking?


Second generation BFs etc• Must be evaluated at complete system

level– Water / soil depletion?– What is most efficient way to harvest solar

energy?– Biodiversity impacts– GM fuel crops next to food crops – difficult to

sell to EU citizens


National/EU legislation/policy for demand reduction

• Strict/robust vehicle efficiency• Public transport investment

– Modal shift

• Sustainable planning– Reduce journeys

• Big investment into True renewables– Marine / big wind / cheap PV / Desert solar? – Electric vehicles and electric storage

technologies / HVDC grid

• Needs political will/courage


Desert Solar or CSP –Concentrated Solar Power


Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

1990 2000 2010 2020

Reduce vehicle emissions by 50% - smaller, more efficient vehicles

Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport from economy

Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids

Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power ?


Agrofuel Moratorium calls• George Monbiot, April 2007, UK Guardian• Southern and Northern NGOs (over 150),

July 2007 – No EU Imports, Large scale mono cultures

• Jean Ziegler, UN, October 2007– Food crisis : ‘crime against humanity’

• African NGOs (30), November 2007 – No global targets, no more African dev.

• UK MPs – Environmental Audit Committee– Suspend EU/UK targets



Forest Biomass• Sustainability issues

–Production ecological/sustainable forestry

–Localised (reduce feedstock transport emissions)

–Scale – avoid monoculture and biodiversity loss

–Scale – too much localised production competes for agricultural land


Biomass CHP – bad examples• UK – South Wales

–350 mW power plant–Timber imports from Russia, Canada,

Brazil?

• Liquid biofuel for CHP–Same problems as transport biofuels–Germany –OSR (high N2O) replaced by Palm Oil

(deforestation)


Biodigestion• AD of waste and manure beneficial

–Eg Sweden

• Growing energy crops specially –Diverting food crops–Displacing food growing land–Scale



Agroenergy/fuels and land useAgrofuels play into ….• climate tipping point•

• food security tipping point

• land rights critical threshold•

• ecological vs industrial agriculture critical thresholds


How should land be used?• Food > Feed > Energy (warmth) > Fuel • To store and sink carbon vs. land use

change (LUC)

Food > C-Sink > Feed > Energy > Fuel

• Control/ownership by indigenous people or by corporates

• Ecological and community agriculture vs. Industrial agriculture model, monocultures, corporate supply chains, pricing, GMOs etc


Ecological restoration and re-forestation (ER/F)

Carbon storage for future

• Good for biodiversity

• ‘ER/F’ sequesters 2-9 more carbon than annual biofuel crops

• Renton Righelato and Dominick V. Spracklen, Science, August 2007


Recent Publicationshttp://www.grain.org/seedling_files/seed-07-07-en.pdfhttp://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/docs/ABN_Agro.pdfhttp://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/docs/agrofuels_reality_check.pdf


Recent Publications 2http://www.oxfam.org/en/files/bn_biofuelling_poverty_0711.pdfhttp://tinyurl.com/3c7esp (Greenpeace)http://tinyurl.com/3archk (FoEE)


Conclusions• Moratorium on targets, imports and

large scale agrofuels is needed NOW–Stop rainforest/ecological catastrophe–Stabilise food supply, prevent starvation–Enhance the evidence base–Real public policy debate – with NGO

and Southern stakeholders–Looks at BFs in context of whole climate

issue–Look at the better ways forward


Conclusions• Agrofuels/agroenergy must be

considered in context of other tipping points re: food security, land use, agricultural models

• Small scale essential–Supporting local communities

• Ecological, biodiverse agriculture essential

• Land use for carbon sinking

Documents

Global and EU context of Biofuels and Biomassceeweb.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/GlobalEU_Context...May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels Climate Change is No 1 global issue