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Giving all children a chance
George Washington UniversityApril 2011
Jaime Saavedra Poverty Reduction and Equity
THE WORLD BANK
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5
Colombia (2006-1996)
Chile (2006-1996)
Peru (2007-1996)
Dominican Republic (2007-1997)
Guatemala (2006-1998)
Paraguay (2007-1995)
Brazil (2007-1997)
Honduras (2006-1994)
Ecuador (2007-1998)
Average annual percentage point change
Latin America and the Caribbean - $1.25 a day poverty
Source: Povcalnet and WDI
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0
India Urban (2004.5-1993.5)
India Rural (2004.5-1993.5)
Bangladesh (2005-1992)
Pakistan (2005-1997)
Average annual percentage point change
South Asia - $1.25 a day poverty
Source: Povcalnet and WDI
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Georgia (2005-1996)Albania (2005-1997)Turkey (2006-1994)Latvia (2007-1997)
Ukraine (2008-1996)Belarus (2007-1997)
Russian Federation (2007-1996)Poland (2005-1993)
Romania (2007-1994)Kazakhstan (2007-1996)
Armenia (2007-1996)Moldova (2007-1997)
Azerbaijan (2005-1995)
Average annual percentage point change
Europe and Central Asia - $1.25 a day poverty
Source: Povcalnet and WDI
Poverty has fallen in almost all countries
-2-1
01
2
Gin
i An
nual
Cha
nge
(p.p
)Change in the Gini Index (1990’s – 2000’s)
…and inequality?
What inequality?
Income, consumption?
Opportunities, assets?
1 = “Incomes should be made more equal" 10 = “We need more income differences as incentive to individual effort"
Source: World Values Survey; conducted by Inter-univerisity Consortium of Political and Social Research, University of Michigan, 1999-2000; cited in Inglehart et al, 2004.
Inequality of what? Incomes? Outcomes? This polarizes the policy debate
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Freq
uenc
y (%
)
Inequality of opportunities…..
facilitates consensus?
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rate
per
1,0
00 li
ve b
irth
s
Under Five Mortality Rate
India Indonesia Nigeria Peru
Improvement in poverty indicators
India, Indonesia and Peru reduced child mortality ………
Source: DHS,
0
50
100
150
200
250
30019
92
1998
2006
1997
2002
2007
1990
2003
2008
1991
1996
2000
Rate
per
1,0
00 li
ve b
irth
s
Under Five Mortality Rate by Wealth Quintile
India Lowest Indonesia Lowest Nigeria Lowest Peru Lowest
India Highest Indonesia Highest Nigeria Highest Peru Highest
But inequalities within countries are large …and not always falling
Large differences across quintiles (convergence in India, Indonesia, Peru)
Source: DHS
0
50
100
150
200
250
30019
92
1998
2006
1991
1997
2007
1990
2003
2008
1986
1996
2000
Rate
per
1,0
00 liv
e bi
rths
Under Five Mortality Rate by Area
India Urban Indonesia Urban Nigeria Urban Peru Urban
India Rural Indonesia Rural Nigeria Rural Peru Rural
… inequities also across areas
Source: DHS, STATcompiler
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
%
Underweight (0-3 years)
India Nigeria Peru
Another poverty indicator: malnutrition
Reduction in % of children underweight in India, Nigeria and Peru
Source: DHS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1992
1998
2006
1990
2003
2008
1991
1996
2000
%
Underweight (0-3 years) by Wealth Quintile
India Lowest Nigeria Lowest Peru Lowest
India Highest Nigeria Highest Peru Highest
But little or no convergence between the richest and poorest – in fact widening of rich-poor gap for India and Nigeria
And again large, persistent and in some cases increasing gaps
Source: DHS, STATcompiler
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
BrasilNicaragua
GuatemalaPerú
ColombiaR. Dominicana
Costa Rica Ecuador
HondurasUruguay
ParaguayBolivia
PanamáVenezuela
El SalvadorChile
MéxicoArgentinaJamaica
Two Latin American children: Probability of completing 6th grade on time
Child with 4 siblings in single-parent rural household, household head without formal education and per capita income of 1 US$ (PPP)
Child with 1 sibling, in urban two-parent household, household head with secondary education and per capita income of 25 US$ (PPP)
Rwanda
Liberia
Tanzania
Mozambique
Uganda
Ethiopia
Niger
Congo Dem Rep.
Sierra Leone
Zambia
Mali
Malawi
Madagascar
Cameroon
Kenya
Ghana
Namibia
Zimbabwe
Nigeria
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Poor child Rich child
Note: Rich child is a boy, living in a urban household where the head is a male with 12 years of education, with one additional child in the household and belong to the fifth quintile of wealth. Poor child is a boy, living in a rural household where the head is a male with 5 years of education, with four additional children in the household and belong to the first quintile of wealth.
Two African children: Probability of completing 6th grade on time
“ 4 out of 10 children less than 5 years do not have access to clean water”
Problem 1: access/coverage
But there there is a second problem here
“Those 4 children are indigenous
Problem 2 : circumstances affect children's chances. distribution
The equality of opportunity principle
Circumstances exogenous to the individual, like birth place, gender,
ethnicity, income and education of parents should not determine the persons
wellbeing
Human Opportunity Index
Inequality -sensitive coverage rate that incorporates:
a) The average coverage of a good or service, which society accepts should be universal
b) If it is allocated according to an equality of opportunity principle
Coverage/access rate of a discounted by a penalty for inequality of opportunities
Where, Average access (C) Inequality of Opportunity Index (D)
)1( DCHOI
Circumstances
Characteristics outside the controls of individuals Society wants these to not influence a child’s access to
basic opportunities.
Gender Parents’ education Household’s location Number of Siblings Ethnicity
Altitude in Andean Region in LAC. Child’s orphan status in many conflict-
affected countries.
Indicators
Good or service that society agrees is critical for individual development
Essential for poverty eradication
Universality is a valid social objective.
Examples School attendance Completing primary on time Access to water Access to sanitation Access to electricity
In terms of school attendance, African countries are comparable with many countries in LAC region – in coverage and HOI
Africa and Latin America (late 2000s)
Note: HOIs use the same definition of opportunities and comparable list of circumstances
020
4060
8010
0%
.
Nig
er
Mal
i
Eth
iopi
a
Sen
egal
Libe
ria
Sie
rra_
Leon
e
Nig
eria
Moz
ambi
que
Mad
agas
car
Con
go_R
D
Cam
eroo
n
Tan
zani
a
Rw
anda
Gha
na
Mal
awi
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Uga
nda
Nam
ibia
Ken
ya
Gua
tem
ala
Hon
dura
s
Nic
arag
ua
Ecu
ador
El S
alva
dor
Cos
ta R
ica
Par
agua
y
Col
ombi
a
Pan
ama
Bol
ivia
Jam
aica
Mex
ico
Arg
entin
a
Ven
ezue
la, R
.B. d
e
Per
u
Bra
zil
Dom
inic
an R
epub
lic
Uru
guay
Chi
le
HOI - LAC HOI - Africa Coverage
Attending School (10-14 years)
Africa and Latin America (late 2000s)
African countries compare poorly with most LAC countries on completion of primary on time - Late entry is a major problem in Africa
020
4060
8010
0%
.
Rw
anda
Moz
ambi
que
Eth
iopi
a
Libe
ria
Nig
er
Sen
egal
Tan
zani
a
Mal
i
Uga
nda
Mad
agas
car
Mal
awi
Con
go_R
D
Sie
rra_
Leon
e
Zam
bia
Cam
eroo
n
Ken
ya
Gha
na
Nig
eria
Nam
ibia
Zim
babw
e
Gua
tem
ala
Nic
arag
ua
Bra
zil
El S
alva
dor
Hon
dura
s
Dom
inic
an R
epub
lic
Par
agua
y
Col
ombi
a
Cos
ta R
ica
Pan
ama
Bol
ivia
Ven
ezue
la, R
.B. d
e
Per
u
Uru
guay
Ecu
ador
Chi
le
Arg
entin
a
Jam
aica
Mex
ico
HOI - LAC HOI - Africa Coverage
Finished 6th Grade On Time (13 - 15 years)Finished Primary education on Time
Encouraging trends for Africa on school attendance (late 1990s – late 2000s)
• Large improvements in school attendance for most African countries
• In almost all African countries change in HOI > change in coverage reduction in inequality in attendance
01
23
45
Per
cent
age
poin
ts
Zim
babw
e
Nig
eria
Ken
ya
Na
mib
ia
Mal
aw
i
Gh
ana
Ca
mer
oon
Nig
er
Za
mbi
a
Ug
anda
Ta
nza
nia
Mad
agas
car
Moz
am
biq
ue
Rw
anda
Eth
iopi
a
Mal
i
Par
agu
ay
Jam
aic
a
Do
m. R
ep.
Ch
ile
Ven
ezu
ela
Per
u
Pan
ama
Gu
atem
ala
Co
sta
Ric
a
Ecu
ado
r
Co
lom
bia
Mex
ico
Bra
zil
El S
alv
ado
r
Ho
ndur
as
Nic
ara
gua
Change HOI Change Coverage
Annual changeAttending School (10-14 years)
But mixed picture on trends for primary school completion in Africa
• Little or no improvement in HOI for 7 out of 16 African countries
• Increase in HOI much smaller than increase in coverage for the 9 African countries showing an improvement rise in inequality in primary school completion
-10
12
3P
erce
ntag
e po
ints
Gh
ana
Rw
anda
Nig
eria
Moz
am
biq
ue
Nig
er
Ug
anda
Ta
nza
nia
Ken
ya
Eth
iopi
a
Ca
mer
oon
Mad
agas
car
Za
mbi
a
Zim
babw
e
Mal
aw
i
Mal
i
Na
mib
ia
Jam
aic
a
Pan
ama
Ch
ile
Co
lom
bia
Ven
ezu
ela
Ecu
ado
r
Do
m. R
ep.
Mex
ico
Gu
atem
ala
Ho
ndur
as
Nic
ara
gua
El S
alv
ado
r
Par
agu
ay
Co
sta
Ric
a
Per
u
Bra
zil
Change HOI Change Coverage
Annual changeFinished 6th Grade On Time (13 - 15 years)Finished Primary education on Time
Annual Change
Source: World Bank
Africa and Latin America – Electricity 0
2040
6080
100
%
.
Libe
ria
Rw
anda
Uga
nda
Mal
awi
Eth
iopi
a
Tanz
ania
Nig
er
Sie
rra_
Leon
e
Moz
ambi
que
Mad
agas
car
Ken
ya
Con
go_R
D Mal
i
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Nam
ibia
Sen
egal
Cam
eroo
n
Nig
eria
Gha
na
Hon
dura
s
Nic
arag
ua
Bol
ivia
Per
u
Pan
ama
Gua
tem
ala
El S
alva
dor
Jam
aica
Dom
inic
an R
epub
lic
Cos
ta R
ica
Ecu
ador
Par
agua
y
Bra
zil
Uru
guay
Mex
ico
Ven
ezue
la, R
.B. d
e
Arg
entin
a
Col
ombi
a
Chi
le
HOI - LAC HOI - Africa Coverage
Access to electricity (0-16 years)
Source: World Bank using DHS data; work under progress (do not cite)
Changes in the HOI - Electricity(late 1990’s vs. late 2000’s)-1
01
23
Per
cent
age
poin
ts
Rw
anda
Zam
bia
Eth
iopi
a
Uga
nda
Nig
eria
Moz
ambi
que
Tan
zani
a
Nig
er
Cam
eroo
n
Mal
awi
Mad
agas
car
Ken
ya
Zim
babw
e
Nam
ibia
Sen
egal
Gha
na
Mal
i
Ven
ezue
la
Cos
ta R
ica
Hon
dura
s
Col
ombi
a
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Bra
zil
Ecu
ador
Pan
ama
Nic
arag
ua
Per
u
Par
agua
y
El S
alva
dor
Gua
tem
ala
Jam
aica
Change HOI Change Coverage
Annual changeAccess to electricity (0-16 years)
Source: World Bank. Sanitation – Flush toilet
Africa and Latin America – Sanitation0
2040
6080
100
%
.
Eth
iopi
a
Uga
nda
Rw
anda
Nig
er
Mad
agas
car
Mal
i
Tanz
ania
Moz
ambi
que
Sie
rra_
Leon
e
Mal
awi
Con
go_R
D
Cam
eroo
n
Ken
ya
Gha
na
Nig
eria
Libe
ria
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Nam
ibia
Sen
egal
Nic
arag
ua
El S
alva
dor
Bol
ivia
Gua
tem
ala
Hon
dura
s
Pan
ama
Jam
aica
Mex
ico
Par
agua
y
Dom
inic
an R
epub
lic Bra
zil
Per
u
Ecu
ador
Cos
ta R
ica
Uru
guay
Arg
entin
a
Ven
ezue
la, R
.B. d
e
Chi
le
Col
ombi
a
HOI - LAC HOI - Africa Coverage
Access to sanitation (0-16 years)
Source: World Bank. Access to water – piped water in the dwelling or property
Africa and Latin America – Access to clean water0
2040
6080
100
%
.
Uga
nda
Rw
anda
Libe
ria
Mad
agas
car
Nig
eria
Eth
iopi
a
Mal
awi
Moz
ambi
que
Sie
rra_
Leon
e
Nig
er
Tanz
ania
Con
go_R
D Mal
i
Cam
eroo
n
Gha
na
Zam
bia
Ken
ya
Zim
babw
e
Sen
egal
Nam
ibia
El S
alva
dor
Per
u
Nic
arag
ua
Par
agua
y
Jam
aica
Bol
ivia
Dom
inic
an R
epub
lic
Gua
tem
ala
Hon
dura
s
Ecu
ador
Cos
ta R
ica
Pan
ama
Mex
ico
Uru
guay
Ven
ezue
la, R
.B. d
e
Arg
entin
a
Bra
zil
Chi
le
Col
ombi
a
HOI - LAC HOI - Africa Coverage
Access to water (0-16 years)
Source: World Bank using DHS data; work under progress (do not cite)
Changes in the HOI - Sanitation(late 1990’s vs. late 2000’s)
-10
12
3P
erce
ntag
e po
ints
Zam
bia
Rw
anda
Moz
ambi
que
Uga
nda
Eth
iopi
a
Mad
agas
car
Nig
er
Mal
awi
Cam
eroo
n
Tan
zani
a
Ken
ya
Nig
eria
Mal
i
Gha
na
Zim
babw
e
Nam
ibia
Sen
egal
Jam
aica
El S
alva
dor
Pan
ama
Ven
ezue
la
Cos
ta R
ica
Ecu
ador
Nic
arag
ua
Bra
zil
Par
agua
y
Col
ombi
a
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Gua
tem
ala
Per
u
Change HOI Change Coverage
Annual changeAccess to sanitation (0-16 years)
Source: World Bank using DHS data; work under progress (do not cite)
Changes in the HOI - Water(late 1990’s vs. late 2000’s)-1
01
23
Per
cent
age
poin
ts
Nig
eria
Rw
anda
Zam
bia
Mal
awi
Ken
ya
Mad
agas
car
Gha
na
Tan
zani
a
Moz
ambi
que
Cam
eroo
n
Uga
nda
Nig
er
Eth
iopi
a
Zim
babw
e
Mal
i
Sen
egal
Nam
ibia
Jam
aica
Ven
ezue
la
Cos
ta R
ica
Pan
ama
Per
u
Bra
zil
Nic
arag
ua
Chi
le
Mex
ico
El S
alva
dor
Ecu
ador
Gua
tem
ala
Col
ombi
a
Par
agua
y
Change HOI Change Coverage
Annual changeAccess to water (0-16 years)
Source: World Bank
HOI related to Access to key Household Services
Indonesia (2009)
Coverage rate (%)
Dissimilarity Index (%) HOI (%)
Access to improved water 66.7 3.0 64.6
Access to improved sanitation 96.6 1.4 95.3
Source: World Bank
HOI related to Access to key Household Services
Indonesia (2009)
Coverage rate (%)
Dissimilarity Index (%) HOI (%)
Access to piped water 20.0 22.3 15.6
Access to improved water 66.7 3.0 64.6
Access to sanitation (Flush toilet) 75.9 9.4 68.8
Access to improved sanitation 96.6 1.4 95.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Piauí
Alagoas
Sergipe
Maranhão
Bahia
Pernambuco
Paraíba
Ceará
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Goiás
Mato Grosso
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Rio Grande do Sul
Paraná
São Paulo
Santa Catarina
Human Opportunity Index (percent)
ChileBrazilGuatemala
IndiceIndice de de OportunidadesOportunidades de de completarcompletar 6to 6to gradogrado a a tiempotiempo (c. 2005)(c. 2005)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Piauí
Alagoas
Sergipe
Maranhão
Bahia
Pernambuco
Paraíba
Ceará
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Goiás
Mato Grosso
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Rio Grande do Sul
Paraná
São Paulo
Santa Catarina
Human Opportunity Index (percent)
ChileBrazilGuatemala
IndiceIndice de de OportunidadesOportunidades de de completarcompletar 6to 6to gradogrado a a tiempotiempo (c. 2005)(c. 2005)
HOI – Completing primary education on time Brazilian states
Uruguay
No state in Brazil has an Opportunity Index similar to Chile. Several states have an index inferior to Guatemala
Moving the goalpostsRelevant basic opportunities change with economic development
Basic Opportunities in Chile
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Coverage (p)
equ
alit
y o
f o
pp
ort
un
ity
(1-D
)
access to internet (14 years old)
access to computer (14 years)
sanitation
school assistance on time
6th grade on time
School assistance, age 10-14
electricity
O=40%
O=20%
0=80%
O= 5%
water
Comparison with other indices
Human Opportunity Index
Doing BusinessHuman Development
Index
1 Chile Chile Argentina2 Argentina México Chile3 Costa Rica Perú Uruguay4 Venezuela Jamaica Costa Rica5 Uruguay Panamá México6 México Colombia Panamá7 Ecuador El Salvador Brasil8 Colombia Nicaragua Venezuela9 Brasil Uruguay Colombia
10 R. Dominicana R. Dominicana R. Dominicana11 Panamá Paraguay Perú12 Jamaica Argentina Ecuador13 Paraguay Guatemala Paraguay14 Bolivia Costa Rica Jamaica15 Perú Honduras El Salvador16 El Salvador Brasil Nicaragua17 Guatemala Ecuador Honduras18 Honduras Bolivia Bolivia 19 Nicaragua Venezuela Guatemala
Questions that arise in applying HOISome examples
Opportunities may need to be defined differently; but that may affect comparability across regions
Social objectives of universality need not necessarily be the same across regions.
Even the same “basic” key goods and service may have to be defined differently for some countries, for HOI to be useful, (Example: basic access to water in LAC, Africa and East Asia
Circumstances are exogenous to the child today, even if they can be influenced by policy (e.g. Child’s orphan status, parents’ education)
Human Opportunity Index
Is a Inequality -sensitive coverage rate that incorporates:
a) The average coverage of a good or service, which society accepts should be universal
b) If it is allocated according to an equality of opportunity principle
It is a coverage/access rate of a discounted by a penalty for inequality of opportunities
It is an inequality adjusted standard. With a standard established by society, with circumstances that define the dimensions of inequality of opportunity established by society.
Political imperative of social inclusion leads to the need of measuring progress towards less inequality and poverty
These indicators allow to assess the current performance of the country in the objective of giving every children a chance.
Thank you
http://www.worldbank.org/poverty
Africa – Other definitions of sanitation0
2040
6080
100
%
Uga
nda
Rw
and
a
Nig
er
Eth
iop
ia
Ma
li
Tan
zani
a
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Ma
daga
scar
Ma
law
i
Sie
rra
_Leo
ne
Con
go_R
D
Cam
ero
on
Ken
ya
Gh
ana
Zam
bia
Lib
eria
Nig
eria
Zim
babw
e
Nam
ibia
Sen
egal
HOI Coverage
Access to flush toilet (0-16 years)
Flush toilet (owned or shared)
Africa – Other definitions of sanitation0
2040
6080
100
%
Nig
er
Eth
iop
ia
Lib
eria
Nam
ibia
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Ma
daga
scar
Zim
babw
e
Nig
eria
Gh
ana
Sen
egal
Zam
bia
Sie
rra
_Leo
ne
Ma
li
Ken
ya
Tan
zani
a
Ma
law
i
Uga
nda
Con
go_R
D
Cam
ero
on
Rw
and
a
HOI Coverage
Access to flush toilet or pit latrine (0-16 years)
Flush toilet (owned or shared) and pit toilet latrine
Africa – Other definitions of water
Piped water (in the household or outside)
020
4060
8010
0%
Lib
eria
Nig
eria
Uga
nda
Ma
law
i
Sie
rra
_Leo
ne
Eth
iop
ia
Nig
er
Ma
daga
scar
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Ma
li
Ken
ya
Con
go_R
D
Zam
bia
Rw
and
a
Tan
zani
a
Zim
babw
e
Cam
ero
on
Gh
ana
Sen
egal
Nam
ibia
HOI Coverage
Access to piped water (0-16 years)
Africa – Other definitions of water
Piped water (in the household or outside), well water or rainwater
020
4060
8010
0%
Con
go_R
D
Rw
and
a
Ma
daga
scar
Ken
ya
Sie
rra
_Leo
ne
Cam
ero
on
Eth
iop
ia
Nig
eria
Tan
zani
a
Zam
bia
Lib
eria
Gh
ana
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Uga
nda
Zim
babw
e
Ma
law
i
Nam
ibia
Ma
li
Sen
egal
Nig
er
HOI Coverage
Access to piped, well or rainwater (0-16 years)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
pe
rce
nta
ge
of
16
ye
ars
old
s
Percentile (circumstance group)
Percentage of 16 years olds who had already completed 8th grade: Brazil, 2007
Source: Estimates produced based on Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) 1992 and 2007.
Opportunities available = Average coverage rate
Average coverage rate 59%
Brazil: Completion of 8th Grade by 16 years olds)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
pe
rce
nta
ge
of
16
ye
ars
old
s
Percentile (circumstance group)
Percentage of 16 years olds who had already completed 8th grade: Brazil
Source: Estimates produced based on Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) 1992 and 2007.
Average coverage rate
Opportunities available = Average coverage rate
59%
Brazil: Completion of 8th Grade by 16 years olds)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
pe
rce
nta
ge
of
16
ye
ars
old
s
Percentile (circumstance group)
Percentage of 16 years olds who had already completed 8th grade: Brazil
Source: Estimates produced based on Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) 1992 and 2007.
Inequality of opportunity sensitive coverage rate
Average coverage rate
Opportunities that were improperly allocated
49%
10%
Brazil: Completion of 8th Grade by 16 years olds)
CpwCHOI i
n
ii
12
1
CpwP i
n
ii
12
1
CpwP i
n
ii
12
1
