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GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Fishery Assessment of Sardine Stock GSA06 (Northern Spain)
Bellido, J.M.1, Quintanilla, L.2, Giráldez, A.2, Torres, P2., Ceruso, C.1, Alemany, F.3, Iglesias, M.3
1 Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Centro Oceanográfico de Murcia. C/ Varadero 1. San Pedro del Pinatar. 30740. Murcia. Spain.
2 Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga. Puerto Pesquero s/n. Apdo 285. Fuengirola. 29640. Málaga. Spain.
3 Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares. Muelle del Poniente s/n. Apdo 291. Palma de Mallorca 07015. Spain.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Introduction
Fishery assessment by VPA methods of the Spanish sardine stock GSA06 is reported.
VPA Lowestoft software suite was used and XSA was the assessment method. A separable VPA was also run as exploratory analysis for both stocks.
Stochastic short term projections were also produced.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
GFCM GSA- 06 Northern Spain
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Burriana
Sagunto
ValenciaCullera
Gandia
AlteaXavea
TorreviejaSan Pedro
Denia
Santa Pola
Roses
LlançaCambrils
Sant Feliu de GuixolsBlanes
Arenys De MarMataro
BarcelonaVillanova i La Geltrú
Tarragona
L´Ametlla De Mar
San Carlos de la RapitaVinaros
Castellón
GSA06 NORTHERN SPAIN
100 0 100 Kilometers
N
Landings and sampling ports (in blue)
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Assessment Data GSA06
Landings time series 1994-2007.
ALK 2004-2006, combined ALK for 1994-2003. Length Distributions 1994-2007.
Biological sampling 2004-2007 for Maturity at age and Weight-Length relationships.
Tuning data from acoustic survey ECOMED and Commercial Fleet off Barcelona, Tarragona, Castellón and Torrevieja.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
XSA Input Data GSA06
Landings (caton)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Years
To
nn
es
Maturity (matprop) and Natural Mortality (natmor)
0.38
0.85
0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00
0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ages
Proportion mature atyear start
Natural Mortality
Catch in number (canum)
0200000
400000600000
80000010000001200000
14000001600000
18000002000000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Years
Num
ber
in th
ousa
nds
5+
4
3
2
1
0
Mean Weight in catch (weca) and stock (west)
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
0.090
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ages
Ind
ivid
ual
wei
gh
t (k
g)
19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
XSA Input Data GSA06
Tuning Fleet ECOMED
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Years
Ag
e G
rou
p P
erce
nta
ge
5+
4
3
2
1
0
Tunig Fleet Castellón
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Years
Ag
e G
rou
p P
erce
nta
ge
5+
4
3
2
1
0
Tuning Fleet Barcelona
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Years
Ag
e G
rou
p P
erce
nta
ge
5+
4
3
2
1
0
Tuning Fleet Tarragona
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Years
Ag
e G
rou
p P
erce
nta
ge
5+
4
3
2
1
0
Tuning Fleet Torrevieja
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Years
Ag
e G
rou
p P
erce
nta
ge
5+
4
3
2
1
0
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Assessment Model
Separable VPA – as Exploratory tool.
VPA - XSA (Extended Survivors Analysis) as
assessment tool.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Diagnostics Separable GSA06
Log catchability residual plots. No unusual pattern of residuals and conflicts between ages.
SEPARABLE
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0/ 1 1/ 2 2/ 3 3/ 4
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
XSA Assessment
Main Settings XSA: Fbar 1-3. Age 2 for q stock-size independent and age 3 for q
independent of age. Fshrinkage = 0.500 and S.E. for fleet terminal estimates ≥
0.300
XSA Diagnostics. Residuals by Fleet. Estimations of Survivors by age and fleet.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Fleet Diagnostics GSA06
ECOMED
0.47 -0.14 0.29 0.54 -1.15
-1.22 -1.07 1.77 -1.31 1.79
1.80 -0.55 -1.34 0.52 -0.40
2.23 -0.31 -2.08 0.97 -0.77
3.02 0.56 -0.58 1.52 -0.43
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
BARCELONA
-0.25 -0.22 0.17 0.14 0.06 0.09 -0.12
-0.20 0.05 0.11 0.29 0.02 0.18 -0.42
-0.13 0.12 0.34 0.43 0.13 -0.67
-0.13 -0.04 0.49 0.28 0.21 -0.12 -0.53
-0.65 -0.41 0.17 -0.09 -0.22 0.11 -0.36
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CASTELLÓN
-0.32 0.04 0.18 0.09 -0.08 -0.61 0.49 0.91 -0.26 -0.20 -0.08 0.49 -1.07 0.33
-0.51 0.03 0.02 0.06 -0.46 -0.48 0.27 1.10 -0.33 -0.05 0.60 0.05 -0.33 -0.34
-0.42 -0.19 0.20 0.16 -0.30 -0.19 0.12 0.97 -0.01 0.12 -0.09 0.10 -0.22 -0.50
-0.26 -0.19 0.55 0.19 -0.32 0.10 1.54 0.13 -0.27 0.14 0.26 -0.36 -1.44
-1.02 -0.71 0.42 -0.59 -1.78 -0.54 -0.42 1.17 -0.59 -0.80 -0.66 -0.71 -1.00 -2.23
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
TORREVIEJA
-1.28 0.59 2.19 -0.16 -1.36
-0.40 -0.36 0.28 0.15 0.31
-0.46 -0.62 0.09 0.26 0.71
-0.19 -0.19 0.03 0.01 0.33
0.94 1.17 0.48 0.33 0.51
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
TARRAGONA
0.33 0.35 -0.06 0.07 0.19 -0.47 -0.37
0.45 0.25 -0.28 0.11 0.01 -0.32 -0.18
0.69 -0.03 -0.75 -0.69 0.31 0.16 0.33
0.72 0.05 -1.10 -0.64 0.39 0.29 0.31
-0.21 0.35 -0.71 -1.03 0.02 0.26 0.20
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Estimated Survivors by Fleet GSA06
Age 0 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
500000
1000000
1500000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho
FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
P shrinkage mean
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 0 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
P shrinkage mean
F shrinkage mean
Age 1 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
200000
400000
600000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho
FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
P shrinkage mean
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 1 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
P shrinkage mean
F shrinkage mean
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Estimated Survivors by Fleet GSA06
Age 2 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
50000
100000
150000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 3 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
20000
40000
60000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 2 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho
FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
F shrinkage mean
Age 3 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho
FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
F shrinkage mean
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Estimated Survivors by Fleet GSA06
Age 4 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
10000
20000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 4 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-CASTELLON (tho
FLT03-BARCELONA (tho
FLT04-TARRAGONA (tho
FLT05-TORREVIEJA (th
F shrinkage mean
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Stock Summary GSA06
FISHING MORTALITY
0.00.30.50.81.01.31.51.82.0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
RECRUITMENT
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
TOTAL BIOMASS AND SSB
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
TOTAL BIOMASS
SSB
TOTAL LANDINGS
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
SSB - RECRUITMENT
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
SSB at 1st of J anuary
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Short term projections
Deterministic Projections for three years (2008 to 2010).
MFDP software (Multi-Fleet Deterministic Projections). Settings: Recruitment Geometric mean:
GSA06 - RGM1997-2006 = 1603 millions. F statu quo is Fishing Mortality Average last three years
and Reference ages 1-3, i.e. average Fbar last 3 years. GSA06 - Fstatu quo = 0.80.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Results GSA06 Short term projection
2008Biomass SSB FMult FBar Landings
73952 50791 1 0.7964 23258
2009 2010Biomass SSB FMult FBar Landings Biomass SSB
78297 54706 0 0 0 107720 83278. 54706 0.1 0.0796 3308 104076 79727. 54706 0.2 0.1593 6410 100668 76410. 54706 0.3 0.2389 9319 97480 73311. 54706 0.4 0.3185 12051 94497 70414. 54706 0.5 0.3982 14616 91702 67704. 54706 0.6 0.4778 17027 89084 65168. 54706 0.7 0.5575 19295 86628 62793. 54706 0.8 0.6371 21429 84324 60568. 54706 0.9 0.7167 23438 82161 58482. 54706 1 0.7964 25332 80129 56526. 54706 1.1 0.876 27118 78218 54689. 54706 1.2 0.9556 28803 76421 52964. 54706 1.3 1.0353 30394 74729 51342. 54706 1.4 1.1149 31898 73134 49817. 54706 1.5 1.1946 33320 71631 48382. 54706 1.6 1.2742 34666 70213 47030. 54706 1.7 1.3538 35941 68874 45756. 54706 1.8 1.4335 37149 67608 44554. 54706 1.9 1.5131 38295 66411 43420. 54706 2 1.5927 39384 65278 42348
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Conclusions - Assessment
Landings in 2007 were 23,980 t, showing a decrease from that of 2006 (29,350 t). The time series shows an stable pattern, although it is at low level. The lowest landings of the assessed time series is 2002.
Fishing mortality is at a moderate-high level (F07=0.83), showing a rather plane pattern from 2002 onwards.
Recruitment in 2007 (R07=1478 millions) increases slightly from that of 2006 (1172 millions). The trend of the recruitments is so important as they can affect seriously to the stock health.
Both Total Biomass in 2007 (TB=72,860 t) and Spawning Stock Biomass in 2006 (SSB=51,220 t) show an stable pattern with a slight recovery from the lowest observed SSB (Bloss=36,830 t, in 2002), although both TB and SSB are still at a rather low level.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Conclusions - Catch forecasting
statu quo F (Fbar05-07=0.80, RGM1997-2006 = 1603 millions)
landings are predicted to be close to 23,200 t in 2008 and 25,300 t in 2009.
Total biomass will be 74,000 t in 2008, 78,300 t in 2009 and 80,100 t in 2010, what account for an increase on stock numbers.
SSB will also increase from 50,800 t to 56,500 t from 2008 to 2010.
This exploitation pattern to maintain F statu quo 2007-09 will produce a slightly gain and continuing the increasing trend, helping the recovery of the stock from its lowest value in 2002.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Conclusions - Management considerations
No reference points for sardine can be suggested at this point. Further research is aimed to produce Reference Points and Harvest Control Rules for the sardine GSA06 fishery.
This fishery is considered as fully exploited.
We consider fishing effort should not increase beyond the current levels. This should allow to maintain the current levels of Fishing mortality.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Further work
Reference points
Harvest Control Rules.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA06 Bellido et al
Thanks for your attention.
Comments are welcomed.
Dr. Jose Mª Bellido ([email protected])