Getting the North Up to Speed: On Liverpool, High Speed 2… and High Speed 1.5

Professor Ian WrayUniversity of Liverpool

18 June 2013

HS2 is great for Manchester…

• Airport - Euston 59 minutes• Potential airport catchment growth• City centre - Euston 68 minutes• Three trains per hour - each with 1100 seats

We should all support this…

Disappointing for Liverpool … in terms of journey times

…total hourly seats

…and catchment population per available seat

Causes

• No high speed link• Scheduling of services (Liverpool services

make multiple stops en route)• 2 trains per hour with only 500 seats

Consequences

• HSR could support regional economies – though evidence can be ambivalent

• But regional polarisation can occur if one larger place is better served

• French planners at pains to avoid in Pas de Calais

Options

1. Liverpool high speed spur2. Closer connection to London Manchester

route3. Upgrade to Crewe Liverpool route for ‘nearly

high speed’ running4. Improve Liverpool’s wider connections

especially east- west to Manchester (the UK’s second London?)

Evaluation

• Wholly new spur or closer links to HS2 route impractical on cost and capacity ground

• Upgrading Crewe-Liverpool achievable • And complementary HS1.5 seems low cost

and achievable

Towards HS 1.5…

• Electrification committed to Liverpool/ Manchester/Leeds/ York and thus Newcastle

• Some capacity enhancements committed via ‘Northern Hub’

• Why not an integrated transport and regeneration corridor?

What’s missing?

• Electric tilting trains • Branding and refurbished stations• More park and ride• Four tracking over Pennines and elsewhere• Re-signalling, better junctions, passing loops

A French style corridor contract

• ‘Low speed high speed rail’• Faster journey times• Faster access to Manchester Airport • Reimaging• Agglomeration economies• Rail related development• A new residential corridor, ideal for dual

income families

NOMA and HS1.5

Costs and funding

• Low capital outlay (especially re HS2)• Tilting trains • Minor infrastructure (no major structures and

no disturbance)• Potential for planning gains via Community

Infrastructure Levy • Potential for European funding

Can we tick the boxes?

‘Electric Spine’ More capacity and faster journey times

between key citiesImproved commuter travel into urban areasBetter links to ports and airports

Connecting the North

‘The North is not an easy place to get around…the most efficient way of bringing representatives together could be to travel to London… Connectivity in the North is defined by interdependence between northern cities and London, and by barriers between northern cities themselves. Removing these barriers could make a key contribution to economic performance.’Manchester University for the Northern Way, 2008

Can we afford it?

Can we afford it?

Who might lead?

Strategic planning and institutional platforms

Some institutional options:• Metro mayors?• The private sector?• A Northern Infrastructure Corporation?• A wider role for Network Rail or for HS2?