[George Nee]Putin’s Kingdom Unchallenged-contentious Politics During the Two Federal Elections, 2011-2012-In Mandarin

Putin 2011~2012

Putins Kingdom UnchallengedContentious Politics during the Two

Federal Elections, 2011~2012

Nee, GeorgePh. D Candidate, Department of Political Science, National Chen-Chi

University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC

82

Putins Kingdom UnchallengedContentious Politics during the Two

Federal Elections, 2011~2012Nee, George

Ph. D Candidate, Department of Political Science, National Chen-Chi University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC

Abstract

At the end of the year 2011, citizens who live in Russia large cities found fraud

which was manipulated by government in the State Duma election. They held protest,

rallies and any kind of activities to show the anger and distrust of that regime for months.

Surprisingly or not, Putins got his life time No. 3 landslide winning in the presidential

election in March, 2012.

Here are some inquiry needs to be claried. As we knew that democratic backlash

happened in Russia for a decade, not only Putin but also the general public seems quite

calm before the protest. What are the main characteristics of Putin-Medvedev regime

that stabilize the state and society nearly so fine, and why the color revolutions

stopped at waters edge? Did the protest movement from below shake the foundation of

Russia political landscape, if not, why? I propose that the weakness of civil society and

its NGO sectors that make them impotent to check and balance the state and political

elites. And even more, Putin eliminated small political parties by law and make elections

incompetent and uncompetitive. Opposition parties which cross the threshold of Duma

election and get seats became so corrupt and sharing administrative resources as

much as they can. Thats the reason why the street ghters for democracy and freedom

going alone without the help from established oppositions. There is still an enigma

why people still support Putin. I unpack the black box in a social constructivist way that

emphasize Putin, and those before and after him, gave Russian a strong and prosperous

national identity, which make people going back to the glorious days of Big Russia in

comparison those who claim democracy are easily associated with the image of small

Russia that full of miserable memories of shock therapy. I borrowed electoral model

to investigate the prerequisites and processes in the street protest in the nal paragraph.

Its interesting to compare the dynamic, process and consequences of Orange Revolution

in Ukraine with the New Decemberists in Moscow and St, Petersburg. Lack of protest

experiences and the skills of organizing the public, the Just Protest style make rallies

carnival-like events and failed to link other social movements in the Russia territory and

the missed windows of opportunity of social and political change.

Keywords: Electoral Authoritarianism, Contentious Politics, Democratization, Civic Society, National Identity

83

Putin 2011~2012

2011Putin Dmitry Medvedev

Vladimir Putin Putin-MedvedevPutinPutin-Medvedev

84East Asian Studies 20137

201112

199112

2012

Vladimir Putin

1Putin201235

2008

2011~2012

Putin

Dmitry Medvedev

1. Putin2011924500PutinAlisa Ivanitskya and Alexander Chornik, First Signs of Dissent in Moscow after Putin-Medvedev Announce Top Jobs Swap, Kommersant/Worldcrunch, September 26, 2011.http://www.worldcrunch.com/rst-signs-dissent-moscow-after-putin-medvedev-announce-top-jobs-swap/world-affairs/first-signs-of-dissent-in-moscow-after-putin-medvedev-announce-top-jobs-swap-/c1s3824/PutinTimeLeader for Life? How Vladimir Putin Set Up His Kremlin ComebackSimon Shuster, Leader for Life? How Vladimir Putin Set Up His Kremlin Comeback, Time, September 26, 2011. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2094817,00.htmlder Spiegel2011926PutinGood for Putin, Bad for Russia2011101The EconomistPutinThe Return of Vladimir Putin-The Once and Future President

Putin2011~201285

Putin

2Putin-Medvedev

Putin

problem-driven

electicism

2. Steven Fish2005Democracy Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open PoliticsPutin19998Steven Fish, Democracy Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open Politics (Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press, 2005).Anders slund2005PutinAnders slund2005http://carnegieendowment.org/files/RussiaRetreat.pdfFreedom House2007200520071991Freedom House, Russia (Washington D.C.: Freedom House, 2007). http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/countries-crossroads-2007/russia?page=140&edition=8&ccrpage=37&ccrcountry=166The Economist201020084.4820104.2620113.92Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2010: Democracy in Retreat (London: The Economist, 2011), p. 12. http://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy_Index_2010_web.pdf; Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2011: Democracy under Stress (London: Economist, 2012). http://www.sida.se/Global/About%20Sida/S%C3%A5%20arbetar%20vi/EIU_Democracy_Index_Dec2011.pdfPutin2000~20081999~2000, 2008~20122012~


3

201112

20123

contentious politics

non-

systemic party

systemic party

Putin-Medvedev

Max Weber

Putin

2011~2012

Putin

Putin

PutinPutin

3. Rudra Sil and Peter Katzenstein 2012185

Putin2011~201287

2004

2011

Putin

Putin

Russian Election Studies, RES2008

Putin

72%85%

98%intelligent4

8Putin

Max WeberPutin

1993

4. Henry E. Hale, The Myth of Mass Russian Support for Autocracy: The Public Opinion. Foundations of a Hybrid Regime,Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 63, No. 8 (October 2011), p. 1359.


Shugart and Carry5

presidential-

parliamentary system

Putin

6Putin

7

5. Matthew S. Shugart and John M. Carey2002

6. Thomas S. Remington,Presidents and Parties: Leadership and Institution-Building in Post-Communist Russia, in Julia Newton and William Thompson eds., Institutions, Ideas and Leadership in Russian Politics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), p. 36.

7. A9220021165~8420043120094151~18435201012147~1942011=60.1%2007=63.71%2003=55.7%53.3%1999=61.7%61.3%2012=65.25%2008=69.7%2004=64.3%2000=68.6%200059.2%66.96%20139

Putin2011~201289

2001 1~2 3.90 3.53 2.81 2.80 2.69 3.522002 1~2 4.12 3.48 2.90 2.73 2.68 3.572003 1~2 3.96 3.38 2.86 2.91 2.60 3.532004 1 4.11 3.48 3.01 X 2.82 3.482004 7 3.85 3.25 2.90 X 2.56 3.402005 1 3.92 3.22 2.85 3.01 2.61 3.392005 8 3.91 3.22 2.80 3.08 2.50 3.432006 2 3.99 3.41 2.95 3.06 2.75 3.492006 7 4.08 3.30 2.81 3.13 2.55 3.522007 1 4.25 3.56 3.07 3.25 2.73 3.482007 7 4.22 3.45 2.89 3.11 2.64 3.532008 2 4.51 3.84 3.29 3.27 3.04 3.432009 1 4.11 3.87 3.18 3.29 2.84 3.482010 1 4.03 3.70 3.16 3.16 2.81 3.322011 1 4.17 3.78 3.09 3.18 2.81 3.45 4.08 3.50 2.97 3.07 2.71 3.47X=5=1=Levada Center, Russian Political Opinion 2010-2011, p. 110.http://en.d7154. agava.net/sites/en.d7154.agava.net/les/Levada2011Eng.pdf

8

33.32%Wikipediaelections in Russia

8. Vladimir Shlapentokh, Trust in Public Institutions in Russia: The Lowest in the


59.2%

9

Yeltsin

YeltsinPutin

Gorbachev

1011

Putin

2000

World,Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 39, No. 2 (September 2006), pp. 153~174.

9. Thomas S. Remington,Presidents and Parties: Leadership and Institution-Building in Post-Communist Russia, p. 27, 37; Jevgeni Ossinovski,Legitimacy of Political Power in Putins Russia,MSc Thesis (London: London School of Economics, 2010).

10.

11. Kenneth Wilson, Political Parties under Putin: Party-System Development and Democracy, in Julia Newton and William Thompson eds., Institutions, Ideas and Leadership in Russian Politics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), pp. 137~158.

Putin2011~201291

12

state council

Putin

2005PutinPresidential

Council for the Implementation of Priority National Projects

PutinThe Public Chamber13

NGO126

executive office

14commissions16councils32

14

Putin

12. PutunBBC200418http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_4020000/newsid_4024000/4024021.stm

13. ShevtsovaPutinLilia Shevtsova, Russias Ersatz Democracy, Current History, Vol. 105, Iss. 693 (October 2006), pp. 307~314Council for Civil Society and Human Rights

14. http://eng.state.kremlin.ru/2013929


macho man15Putin

Yeltsin16

Putin

Putin21

199917

20058602003

YUKOS

17Putin

18

2000~2011252%

2000~2008172%19

15. Putin2008PutinRussian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin Showing His Adventurous Nature, Funny Pictures, Jokes and SMS. http://www.funnypicturesandjokes.com/2012/05/russian-prime-minister-vladimir-putin.html

16. Kethryn Stoner-Weiss, It Is Still Putins Russia, Current History, Vol. 107, Iss. 711 (October 2008), p. 316.

17. Peter Lavelle, What Does Putin Want? Current History, Vol. 103, Iss. 675 (October 2004), pp. 315~317.

18. Gini coefficientPutin37.4341.40http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx

19. CPI2005=1002000=502008=1362011=1762012=185200050201117612

Putin2011~201293

Purchasing Power Parity, PPP

Per Capita GDP2000~2008198.04%20

2000~2008

Levada2009

37%

Medvedev

Putin

25%12%Medvedev26%

11%Putin42%52%

Putin2009

Medvedev

PutinPutin

252%2005=1002000=92.72011=110.42012=112.62000~20111219.1%

20. PPP20006,660200819,850198.04%200025,480200837,55047.37%20003696.42008673482.18%Putin


%

2008 2009 2008 2009

Medvedev 20 23 26 11Putin 19 17 42 52 38 36 25 12 X X 4 2 10 18 11 16X=Levada Analytical Center, Russian Public Opinion 2009 (Moscow: Levada Center, 2010), p. 76.

Putin

21

Weber

22

Putin

power

21. 6120093199~205

22. Max WeberII2004363

Putin2011~201295

vertical23

Putin2013924

Weber

200810

Putin

Putin

2011~2012

23. William E. Pomeranz, Putins First 100 Days, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Washington D.C.: Kennan Institute of Wilson Center, 2012).

24. Levada20139PutinPutin47%20012008Putin77%201260%Medvedev2013950%Russians Less Positive About Putin Than 5 Years Ago Poll, RIA Novosti, September 28, 2013.http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130928/183796879.html; Mark Adonis, Dmitry Medvedevs Approval Rate, Now at An All-Time Low, Has Sharply Diverged from Vladimir Putins, Forbes, October 1, 2013http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/10/01/dmitry-medvedevs-approval-rate-now-at-an-all-time-low-has-sharply-diverged-from-vladimir-putins/


Sinikukka Saari201125

Saari

26Saari

stagnation1970

Leonid Brezhnev27

2011124

United Russia

50%

121080

12

24

28

20111224

25. Sinikukka Saari, The Persistence of Putins Russia-Why Dont Russians Demand More? FIIA Brieng Paper 92 (November 2011), p. 6.

26. Levada201122%20087%The Mood of Russia-Time to Shove Off, The Economist, September 10, 2011.http://www.economist.com/node/21528596

27. Sinikukka Saari, The Persistence of Putins Russia-Why Dont Russians Demand More? pp. 2~5.

28. Russian Opposition Parties Unite in Protest, Telegraph, December 4, 2011.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8977112/Russian-opposition-parties-unite-in-protest.html

Putin2011~201297

201224

Bolotnaya Square

16291991

Putin

Putin34

56

PutinPutin

Saari

30

2011.09~2013.09YY/MM/DD

2011/09/24 PutinPutin

2011/12/04 2011/12/05

29. 33,000100,000 Protesters at Anti-Putin Rally Say Organizers, Police Say 33,000, RIA Novosti, February 4, 2012.http://en.rian.ru/society/20120204/171134854.html

30. Steven Fish, Democracy Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open Politics; Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook and Dimitri Shakin, The Forensics of Election Fraud: Russia and Ukraine (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), Ch. 1 and Ch. 3.


2011/12/06 Putin2011/12/10 25,000~50,000

St. PetersburgNovosibirsk3,000Yekaterinburg4,000

2011/12/17 Bolotnaya Square1,500~5,000

2011/12/18 Manezhnaya Square

2011/12/22 Medvedev2011/12/24

Academician Sakharov AvenueNizhny NovgorodChelyabinskOrenburgVladivostok

2012/01/17 Michael McFaul

2012/02/04 38,00016

2012/03/04 2012/03/04~2012/04/14

201234AstrakhanOleg V. Shein40

2012/04/03 Medvedev2012/04/08 2013/04/25 Medvedev2011

2012/05/06~07 PutinPutin

2012/05/08 PutinMedvedev2012/06/08 Putin68

301002012/06/12 612

Putin2012/10/14 Putin

GOLOS

2012/12/15 Lubyanka Square

Putin2011~201299

2012/12/28 PutinAnti-Magnitsky Law

2013/01/13 Putin

2013/02/09 The Left FrontSergei Udaltsov2012529864~10

2013/05/06 20,000Alexei NavalnyBoris Nemtsov

2013/06/13 70529

2013/06/14 Alexei NavalnyRPR-PARNASMikhail Prokhorov

2013/09/08 gubernational33.32%PutinSergey Sobyanin51.34%Alexei Navalny27.24%10.69%

2013/09/19 Putin2018


31Sharon Wolchik322011~2012

Putin

Natalia Sorkaya33

Andrew Jarrell

34Dmitry Oreshkin

35

31. The EconomistProtest in Russia- A Russian Awakening1990EuronewsRussian Election: Middle Class Call for ChangeNPRAt the Core Of Russias Protests: The Middle ClassProtest in Russia- A Russian Awakening, The Economist, December 1, 2012.http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2011/12/protest-russia-0; Special Report Russian Election: Middle Class Call for Change, Euronews, February 16, 2012.http://www.euronews.com/2012/02/16/russian-election-middle-class-call-for-change/; At the Core of Russias Protests: The Middle Class, NPR, December 12, 2011.http://www.npr.org/2011/12/12/143595472/the-core-of-the-russian-protests-the-middle-class

32. Sharon L. Wolchik,Can There Be a Color Revolution?Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 3 (July 2012), p. 67.

33. Has Russias Protest Movement Lost Its Steam? Deutsche Welle, March 12, 2012.http://www.dw.de/has-russias-protest-movement-lost-its-steam/a-16425009

34. Andrew Jarrell, Local Democracy in Russia: An Antidote for an Aimless Protest Movement, Russian Analytical Digest, No. 118 (October 2012), p. 8

35. Dmitry Oreshkin, Russian Riot: Senseless and Ruthless or Legal Protest? Russian Analytical

Putin2011~2012101

Anna Nemtsova6,600

36Mark AdomanisNemtsova

315~845

47.8%

37

Olga KamentchukAdomanis

38

Denis

Volkov2012218~24

55

39

Digest, No. 118 (October 2012), pp. 4~7.36. Anna Nemtsova, In Putins Russia, the Walls Still Have Ears, The Daily Beast, July 8, 2012. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/08/in-putin-s-russia-the-walls-still-have-ears.html

37. Mark Adomanis,What is the Russian Middle Class? Probably Not What You Think, Forbes, September 10, 2012. http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/09/10/what-is-the-russian-middle-class-probably-not-what-you-think/

38. Has Russias Protest Movement Lost Its Steam? Deutsche Welle, March 12, 2012.39. Denis Volkov, The Protesters and the Public, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 3 (July

2012), pp. 55~62.


categorization

Barrington Moore Jr.

Samuel P. Huntington

40Krastev and Holmes

41

Huntington

42

43

VolkovLevada44

40. Lilia Shevtsova, Implosion, Atrophy, or Revolution? Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 3 (July 2012), pp.19~32.

41. Ivan Krastev and Stephen Holmes, An Autopsy of Managed Democracy, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 3 (July 2012), pp. 33~45.

42. Samuel P. Huntington1985

43.

44. Denis Volkov, The Protesters and the Public, p. 57.

Putin2011~2012103

60%~70%

73%

52%Medvedev

42%

15%13%

Putin

Putin

45

% 73 73 52Medvedev 42 15 13 10 6 Levada20121224 7914.8% http://www.levada.ru/26-12-2011/opros-na-prospekte-sakharova-24-dekabrya The Opinion of the Protesters, Russian Analytical Digest, No. 108 (February 2012), p. 14.

45. Levada201146%Alexey Navalny93%Levada Center, -: 6%,6%Alexey Navalny June 5, 2011.http://www.levada.ru/06-05-2011/alekseya-navalnogo-znayut-6-rossiyan


80%

30%

2/3

0.86

70%

45%30%17~18%15~18%

13%81%

70%well-

off1/41/2

97%

Vladimir Churov

39%85%

35%95%

29%89%

Putin

24%

Putin2011~2012105

80% 30% 2/3 0.86 *

70%1/2 1/4

70% 13% 17~18% 81%

Vladimir Churov

97% 39%

85% 35%

95% 29%

Putin 89% 24%*2009Denis Volkov, The Protesters and the Public, p. 57.

VCIOM201224

80046

82%12417%

60.1%47

37%

18%8%5%

3%

46. VCIOM YablokoGrigory Yavlinsky

47. VCIOM (Russian Public opinion Research Center), Rally on Bilotnaya Square on February, 4: Results of Opinion Poll, VCIOM Press Release, No. 1415 (February 2012). http://wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=639


50%

17.27%

201234

Right Cause

Mikhail Prokhorov27%Gennady

Zyuganov15%

Vladimir Zhirinovsky13%

Sergey Mironov11%Vladimir Putin

3%

Mikhail Prokhorov

48

Maria Lipman

Volkov

ofce plankton

48.

Putin2011~2012107

49

John McCain

50Slavic Spring

Occupy the KremlinWhite

RevolutionPutin-Medvedev

Boris Nemtsov51

52

Ilya Ponomarev

49. Lipman VilkovJulia Pettengill, The Russian Opposition: A Survey of Groups, Individuals, Strategies and Prospects (London: Henry Jackson Society, 2012), p. 2.

50. McCain2011125TwitterVladPutinVladimirDear Vlad, the Arab Spring is Coming to a Neighborhood Near YouMcCainhttps://twitter.com/SenJohnMcCain/status/143689929975799809; McCain Warns Putin of Approaching Arab Spring, RIA Novosti, December 6, 2011.http://en.rian.ru/russia/20111206/169389247.html

51. Boris Nemtsov1997~19981999Rightist Forces UnionPutinPutinPutinAnatony Chubais20034%5%2011126 Nemtsov15

52. Olivia Ward, Russias Boris Nemtsov: From Boy Governorto Opposition Grandfather, The Star, February 12, 2012.http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1129334russia-s-boris-nemtsov-from-boygovernor-to-opposition-grandfather?bn=1Levada20111217%45%Russians Expect Protests, Political Upheavals but no Coup in 2012, RIA Novosti, January 3, 2012.http://en.ria.ru/russia/20120103/170606581.html


Lipman

Tahrir Square

Levada201112

17%

2011124 % /

VCIOM

Yabloko 37 3.43LDPR

18 11.67

CPRF

18 19.19

A Just Russia 8 13.24Right Cause 5 0.60United Russia

3 49.32

Patriots of Russia

3 0.97

5 -- 3 1.57Hard to tell 1 -- 101 99.991.VCIOM201224

800VCIOM (Russian Publicopinion Research Center), Rally on Bilotnaya Square on February, 4: Results of Opinion Poll,.

2.20111260.1%59.2%0.9%The Duma Election- 2011, Russia Votes.http://www.russiavotes.org/duma/duma_today.php

Putin2011~2012109

201234 %

VCIOM

Mikhail Prokhorov

27 7.98

Gennady Zyuganov

15 17.18

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

13 6.22

Sergey Mironov

11 3.85

Vladimir Putin

3 63.60

12 -- 13 1.17 7 -- 101 100.001.VCIOMVCIOM (Russian Public opinion Research Center),

Rally on Bilotnaya Square on February, 4: Results of Opinion Poll,. 2. Presidential Election Result, Russia

Votes.http://www.russiavotes.org/president/presidency_result.php

Putin

Krastev and Holmes53Lilia

Shevtsovaimitation democracyAndrew

Wilsonvirtual democracyGraeme

Robertsonpseudo democracyVitali Silitski

2000Putin

53. Ivan Krastev and Stephen Holmes, An Autopsy of Managed Democracy, p. 35.


liberal

democracymanaged

democracy54sovereign democracy55

regular elections

Putin2000

54. Nikolai PetrovPutin1.2.3.legitimizingNikolai Petrov, From Managed Democracy to Sovereign Democracy- Putins Regime Evolution in 2005, PONARS Policy Memo, No. 396 (December 2005), pp. 181~185.

55. Vladislav SurkovPutin200627The Nationalization of the FutureSurkovAndrei Okara, Sovereign Democracy: A New Russian Idea or a PR Project? Russia in Global Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 3 (July-September 2007), pp. 8~20Ivan KrestavIvan Krastev, Paradoxes of the New Authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 22, No. 2 (April 2011), pp. 5~16Yeltsin199~205

Putin2011~2012111

electoral

authoritarianism

Putin

Putin21

56

Putin2000

Putin

2001

10,00050

100

3%

2005

56. Andreas Schedler, The Logic of Electoral Authoritarianism, in Andreas Schedler ed., Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers. 2006), pp. 2~6.


50,000

45500

2004~2008467

572003

12 20072011

4Putin2001

58

59

2011Putin

Putin

A Just RussiaCommunist Party of the

Russian Federation

57. Gregorii Golosov, Join the Party! Open Democracy Russia, May 22, 2013. http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/grigorii-golosov/join-party

58. Kenneth Wilson, Party-System Development under Putin, Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol. 22, No. 4 (October-December 2006), pp. 314~348.

59. Vladimir Gelman, The Regime, the Opposition, and Challenges to Electoral Authoritarianism in Russia, Russian Analytical Digest, No. 118 (October 2012), pp. 2~4.

Putin2011~2012113

2011~2012

2011201112

22

Medvedev

41

2012

Medvedev

Putin-

Medvedev

Putin-Medvedev

Libera l

Democratic PartyYabloko2011

20135

Gennadii

Zyuganov


PARNAS60201112

61

62201112

Sverdlovsk128

12

10Yekaterinburg63

Putin64

Zyuganov

Putin-Medvedev

2011

60. Laura Petrone, The Russian Opposition and the 2011 Duma Elections- Potential and Problems of a Multifaceted Movement, ISPI Policy Brief, No. 215 (March 2012), pp. 4~5.

61. European Parliament Approves Resolution against Russian Duma Elections, Gazeta. Ru (english), December 14, 2011.http://en.gazeta.ru/news/2011/12/14/a_3927870.shtml

62. McCain2011125TwitterVladPutinVladimirDear Vlad, the Arab Spring is Coming to a Neighborhood Near YouMCainhttps://twitter.com/SenJohnMcCain/status/143689929975799809; McCain Warns Putin of Approaching Arab Spring, RIA Novosti, December 6, 2011.http://en.rian.ru/russia/20111206/169389247.html

63. 64. 20123Sverdlovsk51.5%Putin201264%Zyuganov 12.2% Prokhorov11.7%Putin

Putin2011~2012115

Sergei Mironov

20133Dmitry Gudkov

65

Putin

2011

Igor Lebedev

Vladimir Zhirinovsky66201112

242,000

Pushkinskaya Square

Zhirinovsky

2011121,500

~5,000

6720135Sergey Mitrokhin

65. Dmitry GudkovGennadiy Gudkov2012Oleg SheinIlya PonomaryovA Just Russia Party Expels Oppositionists Hoping to Mend Relations with Authorities, ITAR TASS, March 14, 2013.http://pda.itar-tass.com/en/c39/676091.html; Opposition Party Expels Two Senior Members for Siding with Street Protesters, RT, March 14, 2013.http://rt.com/politics/opposition-party-expels-two-senior-members-for-siding-with-street-protesters-245/

66. Party Leaders Outline Immediate Plans as Polling Stations Close, RT, December 4, 2011.http://rt.com/politics/leaders-russian-speak-plans-019/

67. Police Estimate 1500 Participants in Yabloko Protest, ITAR TASS, December 17, 2011. http://pda.itar-tass.com/en/c/300138.html


Putin68

20129The March

of MillionsSergey Mitrokhin

69

Putin2012

5

250%Medvedev

70Putin

Alexei OstrovskySmolensk Oblast

Konstantin Ilkovsky

Zabaykalsky KraiNikolai Vinogradov

2009MedvedevVladimir

Oblast71

68. Russian Opposition Eyes Anti-Putin Protest Resurgence, RT, May 6, 2013.http://rt.com/news/bolotnaya-opposition-rally-protest-879/

69. Russias Yabloko Cannot Accept Leftist Dominance in Protest Movement Leader, Interfax, September 18, 2012. Interfaxhttp://www.accessmylibrary.com/article-1G1-302882384/russia-yabloko-cannot-accept.html

70. Medvedev2008115Dmitry A. Medvedev, Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, President of Russia, November 5, 2008.http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2008/11/05/2144_type70029type82917type127286_208836.shtml

71. Vladimir Ryzhkov, Putins Vertical Duma, The Moscow Times, Iss. 5091, March 20, 2013. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putins-vertical-

Putin2011~2012117

20133

Igor Lebedev100

Andrei Filatov

Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug

72

Putin20133Orlova Svetlana

YuryevnaNikolai

Vinogradov73

Putin

duma/477147.html72. Russian Press - Behind the Headlines, March 18, RIA Novosti, March 18, 2013. http://en.ria.ru/papers/20130318/180089297/Russian-Press---Behind-the-Headlines-March-18.html

73. Putin Appoints Svetlava Orlova Acting Head of Vladimir Region, ITAR TASS, March 25, 2013.http://pda.itar-tass.com/en/c/686080.html


Robert Dahl

Dahl

74

Dahl

75

Dahlcivil society

John KeaneAlexis de

Tocqueville

74. Robert A. Dahl2006

75. Robert A. Dahl1989

Putin2011~2012119

tautology

76

Danielle Lussier

hybrid regime

77

76. 42200764

77. Danielle N. Lussier, Russias (Un)Civil Society: Authoritarianism by the People, paper presented at 106th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (Washington D.C.: September 2~5, 2010), pp. 5~8.


LussierWorld Value Survey

1990

29.6%33.0%

19992006

8.2%15.4%

%

1990 1995 1999 2006

29.6 10.8 11.7 8.2 33.0 21.1 23.9 15.4 4.4 2.3 2.5 2.4* 0.8 0.5 0.7 --

34.5 12.4 13.6 9.7**

* 2006** Danielle N. Lussier, Russias (Un)Civil Society: Authoritarianism by the People, p. 11.

Lussier and Fishsociability

index78

78. Lussier Fish1999~2004World Value Surveysociability(1)(2)(3)(4)010~1

Putin2011~2012121

sense of political efficacy

79Dahl

institutional trust

Pew

57%

32%

75%

19%80Putin

640.490.790.30Danielle N. Lussier and Steven Fish, Indonesia: The Benets of Civic Engagement, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 1 (January 2012), pp. 70~84.

79. Levada200872010787%84%8%10%Levada Center, , ?Levada Center, September 8, 2011. http://www.levada.ru/archive/gosudarstvo-i-obshchestvo/politicheskoe-uchastie/kak-vy-schitaete-vy-mozhete-povliyat-na-pol

80. Pew Research Center, Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms and Putin, Too (Washington D.C.: Pew Research Center, 2012), p. 2


Medvedev72%67%

Gennady A. Zyuganov39%Mikhail D. Prokhorov

Sergey M. Mironov36%Putin

81

Putin

Putin

managed democracy

sovereign democracy

Lussier

Putinapproval rate

64%82

81. Pew Research Center, Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms and Putin, Too, p. 22.82. Putin70%

80% 20135LevadaPutin64%May Poll Puts Russian Presidents Job Approval Rating at 64 Percent, Interfax, June 1, 2013. http://rbth.ru/news/2013/05/30/may_poll_puts_russian_presidents_job_approval_rating_at_64_percent_26544.html

Putin2011~2012123

Putin63.6%2012

5

foreign agent

nationalidentity

20

1991

1991

Martha Finnemore

national interest

83

84

83. Martha Finnemore2001

84. Martha Finnemore


85

86

realizationexistence

materialism

hegemonic discourse87

88layered

85. Putnamtwo-level game Robert,Putnam, Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games, International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 3 (Summer 1988), pp. 427~460.

86. Rawi Abdelal, Mark Blyth and Craig Parsons, Introduction, in Rawi Abdelal, Mark Blyth and Craig Parsons eds., Constructing the International Economy (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2010), pp. 1~19; Craig Parsons, How to Map Arguments in Political Science (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007).

87. Jutta Weldes, Constructing National Interests, European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, No. 3 (September 1996), pp. 275~318.

88. Ernest Renan

Putin2011~2012125

89

90

2012276Harald WelzerHarald WelzerHarald Welzer2007107~108

89. Mikhail A. Molchanov, Political Culture and National Identity in Russian-Ukrainian Relations (College Station: A&M University Press, 2002), p.14.

90. Nicholas G. Onuf, The World of Our Making: Rule and Rules in Social Theory and International Relations(Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press, 1989)Alexander Wendt2001Ted Hopf, Social Construction of Foreign Policy: Identities and Foreign Policies, Moscow, 1955 and 1999 (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2002), Ch. 1.


Andrei TsygankovAnne L. Clunan91

Peter the Great, 1672~1725Putin

Tsygankov

92

Clunan

93TsygankovClunan

91. Anne L. Clunan, The Social Construction of Russias Resurgence: Aspirations, Identity, and Security Interests (Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press, 2009); Andrei P. Tsygankov, Russias Foreign Policy-Change and Continuity in National Identity (Lanham: Rowman & Littleeld, 2008).

92. Andrei P. Tsygankov, Russias Foreign Policy-Change and Continuity in National Identity, pp. 16~17.

93. ClunanAspirational ConstructivismAnne L. Clunan, The Social Construction of Russias Resurgence: Aspirations, Identity, and Security Interests, Ch. 2.

Putin2011~2012127

Andrei P. Tsygankov, Russias Foreign Policy-Change and Continuity in National Identity, p. 17.

Tsygankov

school of thought

TsygankovClunan

We s t e r n i s m

StatismEuro-asianism

Civilizationism94

94. ClunanTsygankovAnne L. Clunan, The Social Construction of Russias Resurgence: Aspirations, Identity, and Security Interests, Ch. 3; Andrei P. Tsygankov, Russias Foreign Policy-Change and Continuity in National Identity, Ch. 1; Andrei P. Tsygankov and Pavel A. Tsygankov, National Ideology and IR Theory: Three Incarnations of the Russia Idea, European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 16, No. 4 (December 2010), pp. 663~686.

96%

3%

%

87%

0.2%


17

the signicant OtherMikhail Gorbachev1985

YeltsinGorbachev

YeltsinGorbachev

Joseph Stalin

Putin

2001

911Al-Qaeda

Putin

Putin

PutinAngela

Putin2011~2012129

Merkel

20107

The Customs Union of Belarus,

Kazakhstan, and Russia20121

Common Economic Space95

96

Yeltsin

Clunan

95. 2015Eurasian Economic UnionBelarus Joins Russia and Kazakhstan Customs Union, BBC, July 5, 2010.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10507601; Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan are Launching Common Economic Space, RIA Novosti, January 1, 2012.http://en.ria.ru/russia/20120101/170583110.html

96. Andrei P. and Pavel A. Tsygankov, National Ideology and IR Theory: Three Incarnations of the Russia Idea, pp. 668~670.


Yeltsin

Yeltsin

Andrei V. KozyrevYevgeny Primakov

Primakov

PutinPrimakov

YeltsinPrimakov

Putin

Putin

Yeltsin

little Russia

PrimakovPutinbig

Russia

Yeltsin

Putin2011~2012131

2011~2012Putin-Medvedev

97Barbara Geddes98

Putin

Geddes

Geddes

resilience

99

Geddes1999

a prior

Geddes

100

97. Dmitry Oreshkin, Russian Riot: Senseless and Ruthless or Legal Protest? pp. 4~7.98. Barbara Geddes, What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years?

Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 2 (June 1999), pp. 115~14499. Barbara Geddes, What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years? p.

135.100.1998


1012011~2012

Sharon WolchikValerie Bunceelectoral

model

102

103

101.Charles Tilly and Sidney TarrowContentious PoliticsCharles Tilly and Sidney Tarrow20109

102.Valerie J. Bunce and Sharon L. Wolchik, Defeating Dictators: Electoral Change and Stability in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes, World Politics, Vol. 62, No. 1 (January 2010), pp. 43~86.

103. Sharon L. Wolchik, Can There Be a Color Revolution? p. 64.

Putin2011~2012133

p a r a l l e l v o t e

counts

Putin-Medvedev

2011

20122007~2009

104Tomila Lankina Alexey Savraso

2007~2009

Volga-Urals

Primorskiy Kray105

104.Kadri Liik,Regime Change in Russia,European Council on Foreign Relations Policy Memo, May 31, 2013, p. 3.

105.Tomila Lankina and Alexey Savrasov, Growing Social Protest in Russia, Russian Analytical Digest, No. 60 (May 2009), pp. 6~12.


2011~2012

2009

2011~2012

106

Wolchik2011~2012

1071980~1990

Putin

106.Kadri Liik, Regime Change in Russia, p. 3; Sharon L. Wolchik, Can There Be a Color Revolution? p. 64; Tomila Lankina and Alexey Savrasov, Growing Social Protest in Russia, pp. 6~12.

107.Sharon L. Wolchik, Can There Be a Color Revolution? p. 67.

Putin2011~2012135

orange

plagueorange infections

108

Putin20127

PutinForeign Agents

LawLevada

3%

foreign agent

NGO

Putin20132

NGO

109Putin

110

108.Vladimir Kara-Murza, Putins Soviet Response to Renewed Protests in Russia, World Affairs Journal, February 9, 2012.http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/vladimir-kara-murza/putins-soviet-response-renewed-protests-russia; Lilia Shevtsova, Implosion, Atrophy, or Revolution? p. 25.

109.Will Russia Play Tough with Its Foreign Agent Law? The Economists, May 28, 2013.http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/03/russian-politics

110.USAID5,000Russia Slams U.S. Agency for Political Aid Agenda, The Wall Street Journal, September 19 2012. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443890304578006332101049520.html


20112004

111

Leonid Kuchma

1994~2005

2004

KuchmaParty of Regions

Viktor Yanukovych

Our Ukraine-Peoples-Self-Defense BlocViktor

Yushchenko

20041122Yushchenko

123

1121

1226Yushchenko

YushchenkoYanukovych

39.90%39.26%

Yanukovych

111.Andrei Yakovlev, Russias Protest Movement and the Lessons of History, Russian Analytical Digest, No. 108 (February 2012), pp. 6~9; Adrian Karatnycky, Ukraines Orange Revolution, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2005, pp. 35~52.

Putin2011~2012137

Yushchenko

2001112

Duma

2007

64.30%11.57%

8.14%450

3152011

30%

PutinMedvedev

45%

Putinhegemony

International Foundation for Electoral Systems, IFES

66%

26%77%

11320022010

112. Fatherland-All RussiaUnity Party of Russia20014

113. Rakesh Sharma, Public Opinion in Ukraine 2002, IFES Publication, February 1, 2003, p. 27.


2 0 0 0B u l l d o z e r

RevolutionSlobodan Miloevi

18

Democratic Opposition of Serbia

2003

United National Movement

Eduard Shevardnadze2005

Askar Akayev

PutinMilov

Lipman

114

114.Julia Pettengill, The Russian Opposition: A Survey of Groups, Individuals, Strategies and Prospects, p. 55.

Putin2011~2012139

%31/10/2004

21/11/2004

26/12/2004

V. Yushchenko 39.90 46.61 51.99V. Yanukovych 39.26 49.46 44.20 Ukraine Presidential Election, 2014, Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/

wiki/Ukrainian_presidential_election,_2004

Duma2007~20112007 2011

% % 64.30 315 49.32 238 11.57 57 19.19 92 8.14 40 11.67 56 7.74 38 13.24 64 1.59 0 3.43 0 6.66 0 3.15 0 100.00 450 100.00 450Russian Legislative Election, 2007, 2011, Wikipedia.http://en.wikipedia.

org/wiki/Russian_legislative_election,_2011http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Russian_legislative_election,_2007

2000~2012

2000 Vladimir Putin53.4%

Gennady Zyuganov29.5%


Nikolay Kharitonov13.8%

2008 Dmitry Medvedev71.2%




2000


Russian Presidential Election, 2000~2012, Wikipedia.http://en.wikipedia. o r g / w i k i / R u s s i a n _ p r e s i d e n t i a l _ e l e c t i o n , _ 2 0 0 0 h t t p : / / e n . w i k i p e d i a . o r g / w i k i / R u s s i a n _ p r e s i d e n t i a l _e l e c t i o n , _ 2 0 0 4 h t t p : / / e n . w i k i p e d i a . o r g / w i k i / R u s s i a n _ presidential_election,_2008http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_presidential_election,_2012

2011

2011~2012

Huntington

snowball effect

Putin2000115

2004~2005

201012

Putin-Medvedev

Karrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce116Putin

115.Yeltsin19991231Putin20001157

116.Karrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce, Diffusion-Proong: Russian and Chinese Responses to Waves of Popular Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, Perspective on

Putin2011~2012141

Putin

regional hegemon117Yeltsin

1990

Putinframing

Putin

2005118

3%6%

16~2972%

119

Levada201112040%

2011~2012

Politics, Vol. 11, No. 3 (September 2013), pp. 753~768.117.national identity118.2005Public Opinion

Foundation, Cvetnye revoljucii v stranah SNG, (Color Revolutions in the CIS) July,2005.http://bd.fom.ru/report/cat/polit/col_revKarrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce, Diffusion-Proofing: Russian and Chinese Responses to Waves of Popular Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, 27

119.Sarah Mendelson and T. Gerber, Local Activist Culture and Transnational Diffusion: An Experimentin Social Marketing among Human Rights Groups in Russia, Unpublished manuscript, 2005. Karrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce, Diffusion-Proofing: Russian and Chinese Responses to Waves of Popular Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, 28

120.Karrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce, Diffusion-Proong: Russian and Chinese Responses to Waves of Popular Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, 73


2005~2011

2011

social media

Putin-Medvedev

121122

Medvedev

123Federal Security Service,

FSB

124201112

125Medvedev

125. PutinPutin-MedvedevBirgitte Hopstad, The Russian Media under Putin and Medvedev: Controlled Media in an Authoritarian System, (Master dissertation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2011).

122.Anna Politkovskaya2006Anastasia BaburovaStanislav Markelov2009Natalya Estemirova2009Aleksei Sokolov2009520117

123.Medvedev Vows not to Restrict Internet, RIA Novosti, April 29, 2011.http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110429/163776636.html

124.Russian Security Council Chief Wants Web Regulation, Reuters, December 14, 2011. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/14/us-russia-internet-idUSTRE7BD0LZ20111214

125.Markku Lonkila, Russian Protest On-and Offline- the Role of Social Media in

Putin2011~2012143

Nadia Diuk

342003

18.4%201060.5%

126

127

Facebook200692613

128

Moscow Opposition Demonstration in December 2011, FIIA Brieng Paper, No. 98 (February 2012), p. 5; Karrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce, Diffusion-Proong: Russian and Chinese to Waves of Popular Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, p. 759. Hopstad 2010Birgitte Hopstad, The Russian Media under Putin and Medvedev: Controlled Media in an Authoritarian System, pp. 74~75.

126.Vladimir Kara-Murza, What Are They Thinking? A Study of Youth in Three Post-Soviet States, World Affairs Journal, November/December, 2012. http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/what-are-they-thinking-study-youth-three-post-soviet-states

127. gatekeeperWerner J. Severin and James W. Tankard Jr.1992

128.Dave Morin2008825Twitter


LiveJournal

2001

129

online

offline

2010

201112

Sergey Dolya

100

20020106

http://

russianres.ru/

130

Alexei Navalny201212

RosPil.net

Dave Morin, We Just Hit 100,000,000 Facebook Users!!! Twitter, August 25, 2008. https://twitter.com/davemorin/statuses/89877944920066Twitter20125

129.Oleg KashinLiveJournalLiveJournal: Russias Unlikely Internet Giant, BBC, January 3, 2012.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-171770532006ClassmateOdonklassnikiVkontakte20102011Youtube2005Karina Alexanyan, The Map and The Territory: Russian Social Media Networks and Society, (Ph.D. dissertation, Columbia University, 2013), pp. 40~41.

130.Karina Alexanyan, The Map and The Territory: Russian Social Media Networks and Society, pp. 202, 204~205.

Putin2011~2012145

131Navalny

Evgeny Fedorov20112

Youtube60Navalny

10

Putin-Medvdev

132

2011~2012

20119PutinMedvedev

12

201255,00012

24

2011~2012

133

131.Karina Alexanyan, The Map and The Territory: Russian Social Media Networks and Society, pp. 203~204.

132.Markku Lonkila, Russian Protest On-and Offline- the Role of Social Media in Moscow Opposition Demonstration in December 2011, p. 5.

133.GOLOS


liberal democracy

2011~2012

Putin

VS.

Pew

2011~2012

3%

75%2012

Levada

35%

19%134

61%25%135

134.10%17%2012201013%201219%Levada Analytical Center, Russian Public Opinion 2010~2011 (Moscow: Levada Center, 2012), p. 28.

135.Levada201110200912

Putin2011~2012147

23%

44%

%2009 2011 2012

29 32 32 60 57 57 11 11 11

2009 2011 2012 14 21 19 78 74 75 7 6 7Pew Research Center, Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms and Putin, Too, p. 2.

%2009.12 2010.07 2011.06

23 23 23 14 16 17

43 45 44

7 7 7 13 10 10Pew Research Center, Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms and Putin, Too, p. 28.

57%23%Levada Analytical Center, Russian Public Opinion 2010~2011, p. 28.


managed democracy

sovereign democracyelectoral

democracydelegative democracy

2011~2012

McAllister and White20081~2136

200762.3%

18.5%

WilsonMcAllister and White137

(1)

136.Ian McAllister and Stephen White, Its the Economy, Comrade! Parties and Voters in the 2007 Russian Duma Election, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 60, No. 6 (August 2008), pp. 931~957.

137.Kenneth Wilson, How Russians View Electoral Fairness: A Qualitative Analysis, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 64, No. 1 (January 2012), pp. 145~168.

Putin2011~2012149

(2)

(3)

138

2011124

Levada

45%25%

45%139

Putin

2008140

37.4%

12.9%9.7%7.7%

138.Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, OSCEThe Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, PACEPACE2011YoutubeOSCE2011OSCE/ODIHR, Election Observation Mission-Final Report, OSCE/ODIHR, January 12, 2012.http://www.osce.org/odihr/86959PACEPACE, Observation of the Parliamentary Elections in the Russian Federation, Parliamentary Assembly Assemble parlementaire, January 23, 2012. http://assembly.coe.int/ASP/Doc/XrefViewHTML.asp?FileID=12924&Language=en

139.Russians Split on Feelings about Election Corruption, Gazeta. Ru (english), December 29, 2011.http://en.gazeta.ru/news/2011/12/29/a_3952653.shtml

140.RES 2008Henry E. Hale, The Myth of Mass Russian Support for Autocracy: The Public Opinion Foundations of a Hybrid Regime, pp. 1359~1360.


5.2%

5.2%

HaleRES 200889%

74.3%141

142

143ODonnell

144

201112420124

HaleRES 2012145

2008

141.HaleRES 2008 74.33%89%X96%X87%=74.33%

142.Yury LevadaHomo Praevaricatus: Russian Doublethinkin Archie Brown ed., Contemporary Russian Politics: A Reader (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001).

143.Henry E. Hale, The Myth of Mass Russian Support for Autocracy: The Public Opinion Foundations of a Hybrid Regime, p. 1371.

144.Guillermo A. ODonnell, Delegative Democracy, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 5, No. 1 (January 1994), pp. 55~69.

145.RES 20122011122012320124~5Henry E. Hale, Trends in Russian Views on Democracy 2008-12: Has There Been a Russian Democratic Awakening? Russian Analytical Digest, No. 117 (September 2012), pp. 9~11.

Putin2011~2012151

Henry E. Hale, The Myth of Mass Russian Support for Autocracy: The Public Opinion Foundations of a Hybrid Regime, p. 1369.

Hale

35%

2011

Putin

Putin

23%

25%2011

21%

2011

20%~25%Pippa Norris

96%

3%

%

87%

0.2%


critical citizens146

Putin

Putin

2011~2012

Putin

Putin

Putin

Putin

Putin

146.Norrisdissatisfied democrats18~19Pippa Norris, Introduction: The Growth of Critical Citizens? in Pippa Norris ed., Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Governance (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999), p. 3.

Putin2011~2012153

Putin

Putin

Putin

Putin

PutinPutin

2008

Putin-MedvedevPutin

60%

2000

Putin


2011~2012

2011

Sharon

WolchikValerie Bunce

Putin

Putin

2011~2012

20~25%

Putin2011~2012155

Putin

Alexei

Navalny2013147

Navalny

147.201210Coordination Council81,00045Alexei Navalny20136NavalnyRPR-PARNASLevada201340%Navalny 2011493%NavalnyLevada Center Survey Suggests Only 40% of Russians Know the Name Alexei Navalny, The Moscow Times, June 4, 2013.http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/levada-center-survey-suggests-only-40-of-russians-know-the-name-alexei-navalny/481084.html#ixzz2WzpQWS81.; Alexei Navalny: Russias New Rebel Who Has Vladimir Putin in His Sights, The Guardian, January 15, 2012.http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2012/jan/15/alexei-navalny-prole-vladimir-putin


Alexander Wendt2001

Anders slund2005http://carnegieendowment.org/les/RussiaRetreat.pdf

Charles Tilly and Sidney Tarrow2010

Harald Welzer Harald Welzer2007105~121

John Keane J. C. 1998101~120

Martha Finnemore2001

Matthew S. Shugart and John M. Carey2002

Max WeberII2004

Robert A. Dahl1989

Robert A. Dahl2006

Rudra Sil and Peter Katzenstein2012

Samuel P. Huntington1985

Samuel P. Huntington1994

Putin2011~2012157

Werner J. Severin and James W. Tankard Jr.1992

42200761~31

6120093199~205

9220021165~84

35201012147~194

20043120094151~184

2012

Abdelal, Rawi, Mark Blyth and Craig Parsons, Introduction, in Rawi Abdelal, Mark Blyth and Craig Parsons eds., Constructing the International Economy (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2010), pp. 1~19.

Adomanis, Mark, What Is the Russian Middle Class? Probably Not What You Think, Forbes, September 10, 2012. http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/09/10/what-is-the-russian-middle-class-probably-not-what-you-think/

------, Dmitry Medvedevs Approval Rate, Now at An All-Time Low, Has Sharply Diverged from Vladimir Putins, Forbes, October 1, 2013.http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/10/01/dmitry-medvedevs-approval-rate-now-at-an-all-time-low-has-sharply-diverged-from-vladimir-putins/

Alexanyan, Karina, The Map and The Territory: Russian Social Media Networks and Society, (Ph.D. dissertation, Columbia University, 2013).

Bunce, Valerie J. and Sharon L. Wolchik, Defeating Dictators: Electoral Change


and Stability in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes, World Politics, Vol. 62, No. 1 (January 2010), pp. 43~86.

Clunan, Anne L., The Social Construction of Russias Resurgence: Aspirations, Identity, and Security Interests (Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press, 2009).

Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2010: Democracy in Retreat (London: The Economist, 2011).http://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy_Index_2010_w eb.pdf

------, Democracy Index 2011: Democracy under Stress (London: the Economist, 2012).http://www.sida.se/Global/About%20Sida/S%C3%A5%20arbetar%20vi/EIU_Democracy_Index_Dec2011.pdf

Fish, Steven, Democracy Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open Politics (Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press, 2005).

Freedom House, Russia, (Washington D.C.: Freedom House, 2007). http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/countries-crossroads-2007/russia?page=140&edition=8&ccrpage=37&ccrcountry=166

Geddes, Barbara, What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years? Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 2 (June 1999), pp. 115~144.

Gelman, Vladimir, The Regime, the Opposition, and Challenges to Electoral Authoritarianism in Russia, Russian Analytical Digest, No. 118 (October 2012), pp. 2~4.

Golosov, Gregorii, Join the Party! Open Democracy Russia, May 22, 2013.http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/grigorii-golosov/join-party

Hale, Henry E.,The Myth of Mass Russian Support for Autocracy: The Public Opinion Foundations of a Hybrid Regimem, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 63, No. 8 (October 2011), pp. 1357~1375.

------, Trends in Russian Views on Democracy 2008-12: Has There Been a Russian Democratic Awakening? Russian Analytical Digest, No. 117 (September 2012), pp. 9~11.

Holbig, Heike and Bruce Gilley, Reclaiming Legitimacy in China, Politics & Policy. Vol. 38, No. 3 (June 2010), pp. 395~422.

Hopf, Ted, Social Construction of Foreign Policy: Identities and Foreign Policies, Moscow, 1955 and 1999 (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2002).

Putin2011~2012159

Hopstad, Birgitte, The Russian Mmedia under Putin and Medvedev: Controlled Media in an Authoritarian System, (Master dissertation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2011).

Ivanitskya, Alisa and Alexander Chornik, First Signs of Dissent in Moscow after Putin-Medvedev Announce Top Jobs Swap, Kommersant/Worldcrunch, September 26, 2011.http://www.worldcrunch.com/rst-signs-dissent-moscow-after-putin-medvedev-announce-top-jobs-swap/world-affairs/first-signs-of-dissent-in-moscow-after-putin-medvedev-announce-top-jobs-swap-/c1s3824/

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