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GEORGE MICHELIS,Ph.DGEORGE MICHELIS,Ph.DVice Chairman & General ManagerVice Chairman & General Manager
COMMERCIAL BANK OF GREECECOMMERCIAL BANK OF GREECE
Greek Banking:Greek Banking:
Recent developments, Recent developments, future prospectsfuture prospects
1994 21995 2,11996 2,41997 3,51998 3,11999 3,42000 4,1 Source : Ministry of National Economy
REAL GDP GROWTH
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ye
ar-
on
-ye
ar
% g
row
th
INFLATION
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Yea
r-on
-yea
r %
cha
nge
1994 10,91995 8,91996 8,21997 5,51998 4,81999 2,6 Source : NSSG
AVERAGE ATHIBOR AVERAGE RATE 5 YEARBONDS
1996 13,78 14,81997 12,89 101998 13,92 8,761999 10,31 6,432000 8,46 5,99
13,7812,89
13,92
10,31
8,46
14,8
108,76
6,43 5,99
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
AVERAGE ATHIBOR AVERAGE RATE 5 YEAR BONDS
ATHENS SE BANK INDEX - ATHENS SE GENERAL INDEX (1/4/1998 - 30/9/2000)
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
4/98 10/98 4/99 10/99 4/00 9/00
BANK INDEX
GENERAL INDEX
In Billion Euro 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
TOTAL ASSETS 63,85 69,13 74,23 81,02 81,44 101,21 112,07 122,30 131,87 163,48
63,85 69,13 74,23 81,02 81,44
101,21112,07
122,30131,87
163,48
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
In billion Euro
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
BANKING SYSTEM 1990-2000 - TOTAL ASSETS
In Billion Euro 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999DEPOSITS+REPOS 49,92 52,78 56,11 61,45 62,13 68,54 75,99 89,89 96,57 108,81
49,92 52,78 56,1161,45 62,13 68,54
75,99
89,8996,57
108,81
0,00
40,00
80,00
120,00
In billion Euro
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
BANKING SYSTEM 1990-2000 DEPOSITS+REPOS
In Billion Euro 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999LOANS 27,63 27,52 27,59 27,17 28,11 32,99 37,02 41,18 44,86 50,29
27,63 27,52 27,59 27,17 28,1132,99
37,0241,18
44,8650,29
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
In billion Euro
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
BANKING SYSTEM 1990 - 2000 LOANS
The consolidation process: commercial banks
1995 2000• National Bank of Greece• Mortgage National Bank of Greece• Housing
• Alpha Credit• Ionian Alpha
• Eurobank• Interbank• Athens Eurobank - Ergasias• Crete• Ergasias
• Piraeus• Macedonia-Thrace Piraeus• Xios
• Egnatia• Central Greece Egnatia
Commercial Bank of Greece
Bank of Attica
General Bank
Market Shares in Greek Commercial Banks (1999)
BANKS LOANS
NBG 31,87%ALPHA (CREDIT BANK+IONIAN BANK) 24,70%CBG 13,39%
EUROBANK-ERGASIAS (EUROBANK+ERGASIAS) 13,26%
PIRAEUS (PIRAEUS+MACEDONIAN-THRACE+XIOSBANK) 7,44%
OTHER 9,36%
TOTAL OF GREEK COMMERCIAL BANKS 100,00%Source : Year-end Bank Financial Statements
L O A N S
CBG13%
PIRAEUS7%
EUROBANK-ERGASIAS
13%
ALPHA25%
OTHER9%
NBG32%
Market Shares in Greek Commercial Banks (1999)
BANKS DEPOSITS +REPOS
NBG 40,54%ALPHA (CREDIT BANK+IONIAN BANK) 21,49%CBG 12,65%
EUROBANK-ERGASIAS (EUROBANK+ERGASIAS) 13,24%
PIRAEUS (PIRAEUS+MACEDONIAN-THRACE+XIOSBANK) 6,87%
OTHER 5,21%
TOTAL OF BANKING SYSTEM 100,00% Source : Year-end Bank Financial Statements
DEPOSITS+REPOS
NBG41%
CBG13%
PIRAEUS 7%
EUROBANK-ERGASIAS
13%
ALPHA 21%
OTHER5%
Market Shares in Greek Commercial Banks (1999)
BANKS TOTALASSETS
NBG 36,86%ALPHA (CREDIT BANK+IONIAN BANK) 22,42%CBG 12,90%
EUROBANK-ERGASIAS (EUROBANK+ERGASIAS) 13,52%
PIRAEUS (PIRAEUS+MACEDONIAN-THRACE+XIOSBANK) 8,61%
OTHER 5,69%
TOTAL OF BANKING SYSTEM 100,00% Source : Year-end Bank Financial Statements
TOTAL ASSETS
CBG13%
PIRAEUS 9%
EUROBANK-ERGASIAS
13%
ALPHA 22%
OTHER6%
NBG37%
Market Shares in the Banking System (1999)
BANKS DEPOSITS +REPOS
NBG 30,65%ALPHA (CREDIT BANK+IONIAN BANK) 16,25%CBG 9,57%
EUROBANK-ERGASIAS (EUROBANK+ERGASIAS) 10,01%
PIRAEUS (PIRAEUS+MACEDONIAN-THRACE+XIOSBANK) 5,19%OTHER 28,33%
TOTAL OF BANKING SYSTEM 100,00%
Source : Bank Financial Statements and Monthly Statistical Bulletin of The Bank of Greece
Note : Total Assets for the Banking System as of 31/12/99 are not yet available
DEPOSITS + REPOS
NBG31%
CBG10%
OTHER28%
PIRAEUS5%
EUROBANK-ERGASIAS
10%
ALPHA16%
Market Shares in the Banking System (1999)
BANKS LOANS
NBG 25,24%ALPHA (CREDIT BANK+IONIAN BANK) 19,56%CBG 10,60%EUROBANK-ERGASIAS (EUROBANK+ERGASIAS) 10,50%PIRAEUS (PIRAEUS+MACEDONIAN-THRACE+XIOSBANK) 5,89%OTHER 28,22%TOTAL OF BANKING SYSTEM 100,00%
Source : Bank Financial Statements and Monthly Statistical Bulletin of The Bank of Greece
Note : Total Assets for the Banking System as of 31/12/99 are not yet available
LOANS
NBG25%
CBG11%
OTHER28%
PIRAEUS6%
EUROBANK-ERGASIAS
10%
ALPHA20%
Branch Network of Greek Commercial Banks (1999)
BANKS BRANCHES
NBG 611ALPHA 438CBG 362EUROBANK-ERGASIAS 327PIRAEUS 155OTHER 200TOTAL OF GREEK COMMERCIAL BANKS 2.093 Source : Bank Annual Reports
BRANCHES
611
438
362327
155200
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
NBG ALPHA CBG EUROBANK-ERGASIAS
PIRAEUS OTHER
Increasinglycompetitiveenvironment
Privatisation and consolidation:
•Competitive awakening of NBG
•Privatisations create new private sectors groups challenging the established players (Latsis Group, Piraeus Bank)
•Middle-size players under increasing pressure to consolidate
Indirect competition:
•Competition from non-financial institutions is
compressing interest margins
•Capital markets disintermediation is eroding bank’s
traditional role
Operating conditions:
•Thinning lending spreads
•Higher consumer expectations
•Increasing dependence on technology investments
•Progressive disappearance of trading gains
EMU:
•Profits from EMU currency trading will disappear
•Pressure on margins to converge to European average
•Preparing for EMU will cost in excess of GRD 150 billion
Conclusions
Competitive environment }• increased quality of service• more & better products• cost reduction efforts
Great challenges }•further consolidation•alliances•euro adoption
Good opportunities }•new activities (bankassurance)•underbanked markets(consumer credit-asset management)•expansion in Balkans