Geopolitics: A Guide to the Issues

Bert ChapmanINDIGO Meeting

Indiana UniversityMay 20, 2011

What is geopolitics?Study of the relationships between

demography, economics, environment, geography, and politics and how they

influence countries foreign and national security policies.

Geopolitical Schools of thought:Classical Geopolitics: Methodologically traditionalist

interpretation of the roles played by geography, natural resources, and transportation in formulating and implementing national and international political,

economic, diplomatic, and military strategies.

Geopolitical Schools of ThoughtCritical geopolitics: Leftist political and methodological approach heavily influenced by deconstructionist and

postmodern political theories. Seeks to expose what it claims are deterministic, exceptionalist, geographic,

ideological, and other flaws it claims exist in traditional politics.

Modern History of Geopolitics and Key Founders

Geopolitics first used by Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellén (1864-1922) in 1899 article in Swedish journal Ymer.

Kjellén Contributions

• Influenced by German idealist philosophy, social Darwinism, and prevailing imperialist views

• Believed nation-states were more important than individuals• Asserted states should be studied as geographical organisms

or spatial phenomena with particular emphasis on a state’s location to other states in its territorial form or size.

• Believed states possessing the greatest power resources would win wars

• Supported many German WWI objectives and believed the U.S. and Russia were the only two countries capable of becoming world powers.

Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914(

• Professor at U.S. Naval War College whose work continues influencing the U.S. and other navies.

• Seminal work is The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660-1783 (1890)

• This work asserted naval and merchant marine assets were the key reasons England, France, Holland, and Spain won wars enabling them to seize overseas colonies, eliminate enemy access to these colonies, and exploit their natural resources.

Mahan-Influence of Seapower

• Its publication came at a time of European and Japanese expansion in Africa and Asia. They soon would be joined by the U.S.

• Influenced pro-expansionist Americans such as Secretary of State John Hay; Senator Henry Cabot Lodge; and Theodore Roosevelt.

• Mahan advocated a larger navy to patrol and defend the Gulf and Caribbean coasts; believed there would be a Central American canal; and favored establishing an eastern Pacific naval perimeter to keep Japan and any other country from getting within 3,000 miles of San Francisco.

Friedrich Ratzel (1844-1904)• German regarded as founder of modern human and political

geography• Political Geography (1897) credited with establishing the

foundations of geopolitics and saw him introduce lebensraum to German political rhetoric.

• Believed state space increases with territorial growth; that states grow by absorbing other smaller units; and that frontiers are peripheral state organs reflecting a states strength and growth and aren’t permanent.

• The Sea as the Source of the Greatness of a People (1900) stressed German commitment to Weltpolitik and maritime expansion .

• Ratzel was also interested in the importance of environmental influences such as climate, resources, terrain, and vegetation.

Halford Mackinder (1861-1947)

• Preeminent British promoter of geopolitics• Stressed the strategic importance of the British

Isles physical location and natural resources endowment.

• “The Geographical Pivot of History” (1904) published by the Royal Geographical Society’s Geographical Journal stressed his concern that one power or alliance of powers could gain control of Eurasia and use that region’s resources for global domination.

Mackinder

• Believed Russia’s geographic position made it possible for it to expand its power and saw China and Japan as future challengers to Russia.

• Democratic Ideals and Reality (1919) contended power was becoming more centralized in all large states and that populations would be susceptible to government manipulation.

• Supported the League of Nations and established the concept of the heartland including all of Eastern Europe saying that Germany and Russia would seek to control this region contending:

Mackinder

• Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland

• Who Rules the Heartland Commands the World Island

• Who Rules the World Island commands the world.

• This work had limited immediate impact in the U.S. and UK, but stronger impact in Germany.

Sergei Gorshkov (1910-1988)

• Admiral and commander-in-chief of the Soviet Navy (1956-1985)

• Transformed the Soviet navy from a coastal force to a blue water maritime power with aircraft carriers and submarines capable of challenging U.S. naval supremacy globally.

• Wrote books such as Red Star Rising at Sea (1974); Seapower of the State (1983); and articles in the journal Military Thought

Golbery do Couto e Silva (1911-1987)

• Brazilian military figure involved with that country’s Superior War College.

• In works such as Brazilian Geopolitics (1981), advocated exclusive Brazilian leadership in South America.

• Favored an anti-Communist partnership with the U.S. to protect South Atlantic maritime waters from a Soviet attack between the Atlantic Narrows and West African bulge.

• Distrusted adjacent Spanish-speaking countries such as Argentina, Colombia, and Peru whom he believed wanted to encircle Brazil.

• Advocating expanding internal Brazilian frontiers by developing the Amazon and Brazil’s northeastern and southern regions.

• Incorporated Mackinder and Mahan into his writings.

Selected Countries & Geopolitical Interests/Practices

• Australia: Maintaining close security ties with the U.S., concerned with access to Persian Gulf; desires unfettered access to Antarctica; has growing trade relationships with China and other East Asian countries; concerned with political and security developments in Indonesian archipelago; has intervened militarily in Iraq, Afghanistan, East Timor, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands.

Canada

• Cooperates with U.S. to prevent ballistic missile attacks against North America; has military forces in Afghanistan; seeks to protect national sovereignty in Arctic region though it hasn’t put significant military forces in that region until the current Stephen Harper Conservative Government; concerned with how climate change may affect Arctic populations and how this may increase international shipping traffic and natural resources competition (oil and natural gas) with nations such as Russia, the U.S. et. al.

China

• Seeks to reclaim Taiwan; increasing the size of its conventional and nuclear military forces; seeks to provide maritime security for its growing demand for natural resources from as far away as Latin America and Africa; interested in South China Sea natural resources and has disputes with countries such as Japan; has close ties with Pakistan and may compete with India for Indian Ocean control; seeks to challenge U.S. Western Pacific naval preeminence.

India

• Developing military capability to enable it to expand beyond the South Asian subcontinent; its population is expected to surpass China’s around 2025; has nuclear weapons and a nuclear agreement with the U.S. giving it access to nuclear fuel and technology; has challenging relationship with Pakistan including their dispute over Kashmir; hydropolitics challenges with neighboring countries over the Ganges and Indus rivers; will increase security cooperation with the U.S. to hedge against China; may adopt an Indian Ocean Monroe Doctrine to ensure no power(s) can restrict its access to the Indian Ocean or natural resources

United States

• Remains world’s preeminent military power though facing acute financial challenges such as $14 trillion national debt; concerned with maintaining freedom of the seas; working collaboratively with other nations but taking preemptive military action if needed; concerned with Chinese challenges in the Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, Africa etc.; competition for natural resources and reducing dependency on foreign imports; Islamist terrorism (Afghanistan, Iraq); Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear weapons aspirations.

Geography of U.S. Combatant Military Commands

• Northern Command (NORTHCOM)-Covers N. America & Arctic• Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)-Covers Central & S. America• Africa Command (AFRICOM)-Covers Africa-established 2007• Central Command(CENTCOM)-Covers Mideast from Egypt to

Kazakhstan)• European Command (EUCOM)-Covers Europe, Turkey, & all of

Russia)• Pacific Command (PACOM)-Covers India, China, SE Asia,

Oceania, & most of the Pacific Ocean

Current and Emerging Geopolitical “Hot Spots”

• Afghanistan/Pakistan• Arctic Natural Resources esp. oil/natural gas-Russia flag planting North

Pole 2007-Denmark expects to claim North Pole seabed by 2014• China in Africa• China’s “String of Pearls Basing Strategy” and Future Military Objectives-

Has support facilities in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan-participates in antipiracy efforts in Indian Ocean

• Climate Change• Cyberwarfare• Energy Policy and Competition (e.g. European dependence on Russia for

oil and natural gas-Dec. 2005 Russia cuts off natural gas supplies to Ukraine-affects EU)

Geopolitical Hot Spots

• Failed States e.g. Somalia• Global Immigration/Migration incl. U.S./Mexico border• Global Pandemics• Iran-nuclear weapons program• Islamic Integration in Europe (Current population estimated 15-

18 million; estimated to reach 10% of Europe’s population by 2020)

• Israel/Palestine• Latin American Geopolitics (Drug wars; Iran’s desire to use

Hezbollah; Hugo Chavez, Charcas Triangle-resource rich region involving surrounding countries Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay)

Geopolitical Hot Spots

• Maritime Piracy• Mexican Drug Wars and Central American Gangs• Nigeria’s Delta Region• Russian Foreign Policy toward “Near Abroad”

Countries (e.g.) 2008 war with Georgia• South China Sea/Strait of Malacca• Sovereign Debt e.g. Greece, Ireland, Portugal,

potentially U.S i.e high borrowing from China et. al.• Terrorism, Turkey, Yemen & Bab el Mandeb Strait

Information Resources

• Militaries; especially war colleges and research centers

• Foreign ministries; finance departments; energy, environmental, natural resources departments

• Congressional and parliamentary committees• International government organizations and non-

government organizations• Scholarly books, journals, dissertations/theses blogs,

Facebook, twitter

Conclusions

• Understanding geography is critical for understanding and analyzing domestic and international economic, environmental, diplomatic, political, and security developments.

• We need to be able to read and understand political, geographic, topographic, and other kinds of maps.

• Need to understand the critical importance of strategic chokepoints such as Panama Canal, Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Strait of Malacca, Bab el Mandeb Strait to national and international economies and security.

Conclusions• Recognize how geography has always affected and will always

affect international economic, political, and security relationships.• Recognize how international political power always has been and

always will be characterized by conflict, including military conflict, and access to resources and economic markets.

• Geopolitics is the ultimate interdisciplinary subject with unlimited research possibilities

• Importance of U.S. restoring fiscal solvency so it can successfully defend its global economic and strategic interests through military strength and prudent collaboration with allied nations.

Yemen and Strait of Bab-el Mandeb

Spratly Islands

Strait of Malacca

China’s Disputed Territories

China Import Transit Routes/Chokepoints

China Maritime Activity

• China is increasing its naval spending and maritime security activities and is increasingly interested in developing its power projection capabilities to cover the two Pacific Island chains as the map in the next slide demonstrates.

China’s 1st & 2nd Island Chains Maritime Perimeter