GEOGRAPHY, CONFLICT AND POVERTY IN NIGERIA.

By

OLANIRAN, Hezekiah Daramola

Department of GeographyFaculty of the Social Sciences

University of Ibadan.

August, 2011.

INTRODUCTION Incidence of ethno-religious conflict is on the rise in Nigeria. Between 1996-2011, 88 cases of ethno-religious conflict had been reported.Incidence of poverty is getting astronomically high in Nigeria. About 54.4% of the population are poor (NBS,2004).

OBJECTIVES

The specific objectives are; To examine trends in ethno-

religious conflict in Nigeria.To examine trends in poverty in

Nigeria.To determine the relationship

between poverty and conflict and;To examines the role plays by

geography in occurrence of poverty and conflict.

THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS

Basic theories that explain the relationship between ethnicity,

conflict, geography and poverty are:

1. Primordialist theory2.Instrumentalist theory3. Constructivist theory.4.Theory of opportunity cost (Collier

and Hoeffler, 1998.5.The Chicago School of thought.

REVIEW OF LITERATUREConflict has been found to be related to: Long legacy of oppression based on

caste and ethnicity (Bray et al, 2003; Sengupita, 2005).

Landlessness or relative deprivation (Deraniyagala, 2005; Murshed and Gate, 2005)

Poverty and Underdevelopment (Gersony,2003; Thapa and Sijapati,2004).

Poverty, weak state capacity and geographical conditions (Fearon and Laitin, 2003).

Poverty and geographical location (Do and Iyer, 2009)

THE GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY OF NIGERIA

Located in the tropics (Lat 10:00 N and Long 8:00E.

Total land area= 923,768 sq kmPopulation = 140 million (NPC,

2006).Population Density= 166.0 per sq

km.

THE GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY OF NIGERIA CONTD.

Ethnic group: Hausa/Fulani=29%, Yoruba=21%, Ibo=18%.

Religion: Muslim=50%, Christian=40%, Traditional=10%

GDP US$= 1152.82 (2009)HDI= 0.436 (2010) Compare to

Norway (0.954),US (0.917), South Africa (0.581).

DATA SOURCES

Data were gathered from various sources for this study;

For measurement of ethno-religious conflict, the author scoop data from newspaper reports, Magazine, internet publications, journal article and other relevant unpublished materials.

Data on socio-economic data were obtained from Central Bank annual reports (2005& 2009), National Bureau of Statistics (2005 & 2009), Federal Ministry of finance, National Population Commission and Nigeria Metrological Authority

VARIABLES USEDModel 1: Y= Ethno-religious conflict, Xi= Total Population.Model 2= Y= Ethno-religious conflict. X1= Area sq km, X2=Total Pop,

X3= Poverty Headcount X4= Total Revenue X5= Distance from the

coast, X6 =Major religion, X7=

Distance to Abuja, X8= GDP, and X9= Total Expenditure.

VARIABLES USED CONTD.

Model 3 & 4: Y= Poverty Headcount Xi= Area sq km, X2= Total Pop, X3= Unemployment rate, X4=

Total Revenue, X5= Dist. From Coast, X6= Major religion, X7= Dist. To Abuja, X8= GDP X9= Total Expenditure, X10=HDI. Model 4 has Poverty Headcount as X9.

METHOD OF ANALYSIS Method of regression analysis was

principally employed in the analysis of the data. Regression model is given as;

Y= a + b1x1 + b2x2………bnxn + e Where; Y= Dependent variable a= Constant b= Coefficients of variable factor x= Explanatory variable e= error term.

DISCUSSION ON DATA 1 Trends in incidence of poverty in Nigeria

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

LEVELS 1980 1985 1992 1996 2004

NATIONAL 27.2 46.3 42.7 65.6 54.4

Urban 17.2 37.6 37.5 58.2 43.2

Rural 28.3 57.4 46.0 69.3 63.3

ZONE

SS 13.2 45.7 40.8 58.2 55.1

SE 12.9 30.4 41.0 53.5 26.7

SW 13.4 38.6 45.1 60.9 43.0

NC 32.2 50.8 46.0 64.7 67.0

NE 35.6 54.9 54.0 70.1 72.2

NW 37.7 52.1 36.5 77.2 71.2

DISCUSSION ON DATA 2

HDI, HPI and Ethno-religious conflict by regions.

Source: HDR and Personal Survey.

GEO-POL ZONE

HDI 2008 HPI 2008 ETHNO-CONFLIT 1996-2011

SS 0.573 34.65 12

SE 0.471 44.15 04

SW 0.523 48.90 21

NC 0.490 21.50 18

NE 0.332 26.07 19

NW 0.420 26.61 14

TOTAL 88

RESULT OF REGRESSION MODELS AND DISCUSSION

Model 1: (Stepwise regression):

Ethno-religious conflict and Total population.

R = 0.478R2 = 0.228P= 0.016

RESULT OF REGRESSION .MODELS CONTD.

Model 2: (Simple linear regression);Y= Ethno-religious conflictR= 0.765R2= 0.585P= 0.004Important coefficientTOPOP= 0.671 P=0.000PHCOUNT=0.445 P=0.020TOREV =2.749, P=0.48DISTCOAST= 0.700 p=0.012

RESULT OF REGRESSION .MODELS CONTD.

Model 3: (Simple linear regression)Y=Poverty HeadcountR=0.712R2+0.506P= 0.022Important BetaAREASQKM =0.466 P=0.031UNEMPLOYRT =0.610 P= 0.007GDP= 0.263 P=0.443TOEXP 3.311 P= 0.008

RESULT OF REGRESSION .MODELS CONTD.

Model 4; (Simple linear regression)Y= HDIR= 0.791R2= 0.625P=0.001Important BetaTOPOP =0.303 P= 0.49GDP = 0.713 P= 0.008

CONCLUSION

The result of our various models shows that ethno-religious conflict is related to some geographical variables, however they are not significant except distance from the coast in model 2.

Models show a relationship between ethno-religious conflict and poverty.

Our Models reinforce the structural perspective on poverty.

Conflict in Nigeria is largely caused by religion as been made to believe. It is both political and economical.

RECOMENDATION Macroeconomic policy that will reduce

poverty is needed. Politicians should stop using religion and

ethnicity for achieving political end. Rule law should entrenched. Religious bigotry need to be de-

emphasized. Utterances that are capable of cause

tension and conflict should be avoided and punished.

Maximum security should be provided in areas that are prone to conflict and security personnel should avoid partisanship.

THANK YOU.