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Highlights of the Day's trading events
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Daily Market Note Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>
www.genghis-capital.com 17
th October 2012
Equities
NSE Closes Flat…
Two days after achieving the feat of breaching the 4,000 level, the NSE 20 share index closed flat at 4,014 on massive
pressure from Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd. A counter that had touched highs of Kes.20 in recent past was subjected to profit
taking especially by institutional investors dropping 8%. The other indices closed north with the NASI up 0.48 points and both
the FTSE 15 and 25 appreciating by approxiametly 1%. Equity turnover was flat at Kes.389Mn with local investors taking
charge of the day’s session at 57% of total turnover. Market capitalisation slowly crept up to Kes.1.17Tn. The momentum of
the bourse seems to be sustainable going forward driven by investor confidence.
"We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the day’s trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance Table 2: NSE Indices
Market Indices Summary
Index Today Today % change
NASI 88.02 88.50 0.55%
NSE 20 Share 4032.41 4014.03 -0.46%
FTSE NSE 15 116.92 118.07 0.98%
FTSE NSE 25 119.63 120.73 0.92%
Source: NSE
The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of today’s trading
session stood at 24/14 with 24 stocks advancing in price and 14
shedding prices.
Foreign investor participation was constant at 43.18% in today’s
trading compared t0 43.46% at the close of yesterday’s session.
Today’s session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.41.1Mn
compared to a net inflow of Kes.111.2Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on Equity
Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY)–Kes.54.9Mn and East African Breweries
Ltd (NSE: EABL)–Kes.42.7Mn. The 2 counters accounted for
25.06% and 57.98% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.
East African Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) recorded the highest
net inflow of Kes.42.9Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on ScanGroup
Ltd (NSE: SCAN) at Kes.10.3Mn.
Top Traders
Equity Volume
Safaricom Ltd 4,693,800
Equity Bank Ltd 2,965,800
Kenya Power & Lighting Ltd 2,776,900
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd 2,079,700
Mumias Sugar Company Ltd 954,100
Gaining Stocks
Equity Price (KES) % Change
Pan Africa Insurance 37.75 7.86
Rea Vipingo Plantations 18.20 6.43
Scangroup Ltd 59.50 6.25
Standard Group Ltd 25.50 6.25
Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd 125.00 4.17
Losing Stocks
Equity Price (KES) % Change
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd 18.25 -8.29
Unga Group Ltd 13.05 -2.61
Trans-century Ltd 20.00 -2.44
Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd 210.00 -2.33
Access Kenya Ltd 4.60 -2.13
Source: NSE *Closing Prices
Daily Market Note
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Table 3: NSE Summary
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates
Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers
The Insurance sector was up 2.48% to the top spot, boosted by the performance of Pan Africa Insurance
Holdings Ltd (NSE: PAFR) +7.86% to VWAP 37.75. The total index performance closed marginally higher
at 0.44% on a greater effect of the seven advancing sectors.
The Telecommunication & Technology sector occupied the bottom spot slightly losing 0.45% dragged
down by Access Kenya Ltd (NSE: ACCS) which shed 2.13% to close at a VWAP of Kes.4.60.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis
Foreign Investor Equity Turnover
16th October 2012 17th October 2012
Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes) Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes)
138,981,212.50 27,757,055.00 104,914,692.50 63,589,375.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position
111,224,157.50 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position
41,325,317.50
Sector Constituents Price Performance (% Change)
Insurance 6 2.48
Agricultural 7 1.12
Commercial & Services 9 0.68 Energy & Petroleum 4 0.64
Banking 10 0.15
Construction & Allied 5 0.12
Manufacturing & Allied 9 0.03
Automobiles & Accessories 4 0.00
Investment 4 -0.40
Telecommunication & Technology 2 -0.45
Total Index 60 0.44
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital
16th Oct 2012 17th Oct 2012 % Change
Market Cap. (Kes.Bn) 1164.47 1170.86 0.55%
Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn) 383.64 389.73 1.59%
Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%) 56.54/43.46 56.82/43.18 N/A
Advance:Decline Ratio 16/17 24/14 N/A
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn) 1929.40 1604.30 -16.85%
Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:
(Mn)0.00 0.00 N/A
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
Total Bond T/O)0.00% 0.00% N/A
Daily Market Note
3
Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)
CompanyPrice at
Recommendation
12 Month
Target PriceCurrent Price
Upside
Potential
Return to
DateRecommendation
Centum Investments Ltd 14.55 19.55 12.10 38.11% -16.84% BUY
Equity Bank Limited 15.80 19.90 23.75 -19.35% 50.32% SELL
KenolKobil Limited 9.80 16.90 14.35 15.09% 46.43% HOLD
NIC Bank Limited 26.50 45.50 36.00 20.88% 35.85% BUY
EA Cables Ltd 11.80 14.55 11.15 23.37% -5.51% BUY
Athi River Mining Ltd 156.00 220.00 228.00 -3.64% 46.15% HOLD
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd 88.50 123.40 119.00 3.57% 34.46% HOLD
KCB Group Ltd 18.50 27.10 28.25 -4.24% 52.70% HOLD
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd 7.20 18.25 18.25 0.00% 153.47% HOLD
Kenya Power & Lighting Co. 15.85 22.00 18.50 15.91% 16.72% BUY
Nation Media Group Ltd 153.00 197.70 215.00 -8.75% 40.52% HOLD
British American Investments 4.00 6.25 6.10 2.40% 52.50% HOLD
Bamburi Cement Ltd 168.00 201.00 169.00 15.92% 0.60% BUY
Cooperative Bank Limited 11.55 18.50 12.25 33.78% 6.06% BUY
Kenya Reinsurance Corp. 10.05 15.35 12.45 18.89% 23.88% BUY
KenGen Ltd 8.30 16.25 8.60 47.08% 3.61% BUY
Jubilee Holdings Ltd 163.00 186.00 165.00 11.29% 1.23% HOLD
Housing Finance Ltd 13.65 27.00 14.95 44.63% 9.52% BUY
Scangroup Ltd 49.25 59.60 59.50 0.17% 20.81% HOLD
Portfolio Return 30.13%
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd
Fixed Income:
182 Up 17.70 Bps…
Money Markets: The CBK was aggressive in the market mopping up Kes.15Bn via REPOs with the interbank rate at compared to yesterday’s value of 9.44%.
Primary Markets: The 182 Day T-Bill was up for sale today in what was an oversubscribed auction. The
regulator received bids worth Kes.6.17Bn against a target of Kes.4Bn. The increased participation
pushed yields 17.70 basis points higher to 10.484%. The 91-Day T-Bill will be auctioned tomorrow.
Secondary Markets: Bond turnover declined 17% to Kes.1.6Bn driven by Infrastructure Bonds that
transacted Kes.890Mn; 55% of the total Bond turnover.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CD’s
Tenor Kenya Uganda Tanzania U.S LIBOR (USD)
91 Day 8.96% 9.67% 12.45% 0.09% 0.35%
182 Day 10.48% 10.66% 13.01% 0.13% 0.63%
1 Year 10.57% 10.69% 13.76% 0.15% 0.97%
2 Year 11.11% 14.84% 13.81% 0.23% --
5 Year 11.86% 13.91% 14.49% 0.61% --
10 Year 12.71% 15.28% 14.99% 1.62% --
Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital
Daily Market Note
4
Currency:
CBK Continued Support of Currency…
Performance: The local currency maintained its stability aided by NGO dollar sales. The
largest gain was in the USD/KES pair up 0.11% with the trend followed in the KES/TZS gaining
0.04%. The largest loss was 1.22% in the ZAR/KES pair followed by 0.87% in the EUR/KES pair.
The KES will face pressure once the end month period approaches with consensus
expecting marginal slip.
Table 8: Currency Rate
Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart exhibits the Psychological Line of the USDKES
pair over the past 3 years. The currency pair has enjoyed support from the regulator to keep
it at below the 85 level on average.
Currency Pair 16th Oct 2012 17th Oct 2012
USD/KES 85.13 85.03
GBP/KES 136.76
137.14
EUR/KES 110.40 111.36
ZAR/KES 9.67 9.78
KES/UGX 30.36 30.35
KES/TZS 18.53 18.53
INR/KES 1.61 1.61
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.
Estimates
27thJan 2012 30thJan 2012
Daily Market Note
5
Genghis Index:
D
Table 9: Genghis Index Performance
Source: Genghis Capital
Large-Cap Index
The index stagnated at 0.14% while Market
Capitalisation surged to Kes.958Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) up 1.22%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Standard Chartered
Bank Ltd (NSE: SCBK) down 1.38%.
Mid-Cap Index
The Index turned its fortunes to gain 1.15% over
yesterday’s close as Market Capitalisation marginally
improved to Kes.144Bn.
This section’s best performer was Pan Africa
Insurance Holdings Ltd (NSE: PAFR) up 7.86%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Uchumi
Supermarkets Ltd (NSE: UCHM) down 8.29%.
Small-Cap Index
Price performance shifted +0.47% with market
capitalization stable at Kes.13Bn.
Gaining by the biggest margin was Rea Vipingo
Plantations Ltd (NSE: REA) up 6.43%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Unga Group Ltd
(NSE: UNGA) shedding 2.61%.
Daily Market Note
6
Daily Market Note
7
Contacts Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected] Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: [email protected] Gachanja Weru, Fixed Income Dealer| Tel:+25420 2774756 | Email: [email protected]
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: [email protected] Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: [email protected] Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.
Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi. Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334
