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Equities: The NSE 20 Share Index reversed the downward trend to gain 7.18 points closing at 4121.13. The NASI was also up 0.50% as the FTSE 15 and FTSE 25 both shed 0.12% and 0.18% respectively. Equity turnover increased to Kes.581Mn as bond turnover improved to Kes.3.1Bn. Foreign investor’s further increased their participation with a contribution of 53% to market activity and a long position of Kes.312Mn. Market capitalization was relatively stable above Kes.1.2Tn.
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Daily Market Note Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>
www.genghis-capital.com 7
th November 2012
2011
Equities
NSE Recoups Losses....
The NSE 20 Share Index reversed the downward trend to gain 7.18 points closing at 4121.13. The NASI was also up 0.50% as
the FTSE 15 and FTSE 25 both shed 0.12% and 0.18% respectively. Equity turnover increased to Kes.581Mn as bond turnover
improved to Kes.3.1Bn. Foreign investor’s further increased their participation with a contribution of 53% to market activity
and a long position of Kes.312Mn. Market capitalisation was relatively stable above Kes.1.2Tn.
“Activity is the enemy of investment returns.” – Warren Buffett
The highlights of the day’s trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance Table 2: NSE Indices
Market Indices Summary
Index Yesterday Today % change
NASI 91.36 91.82 0.50%
NSE 20 Share 4113.96 4121.13 0.17%
FTSE NSE 15 122.41 122.26 -0.12%
FTSE NSE 25 125.02 124.80 -0.18%
Source: NSE
The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of today’s trading
session stood at 21/18 with 21 stocks advancing in price and 18
shedding prices.
Foreign investor participation increased to 52.7% from
yesterday’s 40%.
Today’s session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.312Mn, 5 times
what was recorded yesterday.
Safaricom Limited (NSE: SCOM) was the most actively traded
stock among foreigners. It recorded a turnover of Kes.129Mn.
Equity Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) recorded the second highest
foreign investor turnover. It registered a turnover of Kes.83Mn
vs. Kes.59Mn yesterday. The 2 counters accounted for 36.5%
and 69.2% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.
Equity Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) had the highest net inflow
registering a net inflow of Kes.117Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on KenolKobil limited
(NSE: KENO) at Kes.5.28Mn.
Top Traders
Equity Volume
Safaricom Ltd 39,136,000
Equity Bank Ltd 6,077,500
Co-operative Bank Ltd 2,694,700
Uchumi Supermarket Ltd 1,149,900
Barclays Bank Ltd 1,061,200
Gaining Stocks
Equity Price (KES) % Change
Eveready East Africa Ltd 1.65 4.17
Scangroup Ltd 62.00
2.48
Safaricom Ltd 4.45
2.30
CFC Stanbic Bank Ltd 40.00 1.91
Sasini Ltd 11.30
1.80
Losing Stocks
Equity Price (KES) % Change
Kenya Airways Ltd 11.40
-5.00
Car & General Ltd 24.00 -4.00
Olympia capital Ltd 3.70 -3.90
Express Kenya Ltd 3.80 -2.56
Uchumi Supermarket Ltd 19.50 -2.25
Source: NSE *Closing Prices
Daily Market Note
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Table 3: NSE Summary
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates
Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers
The Telecommunication and Technology Sector was the best performer, registering gains of 1.70%
supported by gains in Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) up 2.3% to a VWAP of Kes.4.45. The total index
performance decreased 0.05% where 5 of the 10 segments closed in negative territory.
The Investment segment was the worst sector performer recording a loss of 1.43%. Losses are
attributed to the 3.90% decline of Olympia Capital Holdings (NSE: OCH) to a VWAP of Kes.3.70.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis
Foreign Investor Equity Turnover
6th November 2012 7th November 2012
Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes) Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes)
94,670,107.50 32,329,862.50 462,461,200.00 150,349,690.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position
62,340,245.00 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position
312,111,510.00
Sector Constituents Price Performance (% Change)
Telecommunications and Technology 2 1.70
Energy and petroleum 4 0.71
Manufacturing and Allied 9 0.34 Banking 10 0.14
Construction and Allied 5 0.07
Agriculturals 7 -0.17
Insurance 6 -0.44
Commercial and services 9 -0.46
Automobiles and accessories 2 -1.00
Investment 4 -1.43
Total Index 60 -0.05
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital
6th Nov 2012 7th Nov 2012 % Change
Market Cap. (Kes.Bn) 1213.00 1219.38 0.01
Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn) 314.87 581.27 0.85
Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%) 59.67/40.33 47.29/52.71 N/A
Advance:Decline Ratio 16:15 21:18 N/A
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn) 2138.80 3086.90 0.44
Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:
(Mn)1285.60 1289.60 N/A
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
Total Bond T/O)60.11% 41.78% N/A
Daily Market Note
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Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)
CompanyPrice at
Recommendation
12 Month
Target Price
Current
Price
Upside
Potential
Return to
DateRecommendation
Centum Investments Ltd 14.55 19.55 12.30 37.08% -15.46% BUY
Equity Bank Limited 15.80 19.90 24.50 -23.12% 55.06% SELL
KenolKobil Limited 9.80 16.90 14.85 12.13% 51.53% HOLD
NIC Bank Limited 26.50 45.50 39.50 13.19% 49.06% BUY
EA Cables Ltd 11.80 14.55 11.10 23.71% -5.93% BUY
Athi River Mining Ltd 156.00 220.00 223.00 -1.36% 42.95% HOLD
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd 88.50 123.40 118.00 4.38% 33.33% HOLD
KCB Group Ltd 18.50 27.10 30.00 -10.70% 62.16% HOLD
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd 7.20 18.25 19.50 -6.85% 170.83% HOLD
Kenya Power & Lighting Co. 15.85 22.00 18.25 17.05% 15.14% BUY
Nation Media Group Ltd 153.00 197.70 225.00 -13.81% 47.06% HOLD
British American Investments 4.00 6.25 6.10 2.40% 52.50% HOLD
Bamburi Cement Ltd 168.00 201.00 178.00 11.44% 5.95% HOLD
Cooperative Bank Limited 11.55 18.50 12.60 31.89% 9.09% BUY
Kenya Reinsurance Corp. 10.05 15.35 12.50 18.57% 24.38% BUY
KenGen Ltd 8.30 16.25 9.35 42.46% 12.65% BUY
Jubilee Holdings Ltd 163.00 186.00 170.00 8.60% 4.29% HOLD
Housing Finance Ltd 13.65 27.00 15.25 43.52% 11.72% BUY
Scangroup Ltd 49.25 59.60 62.00 -4.03% 25.89% HOLD
Portfolio Return 34.33%
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd
Fixed Income:
Yields Maintain Upward Trend…
Money Markets: The CBK was aggressive in the market mopping up Kes.7Bn via REPOs and TADs as the interbank rate remained constant at 8.69%.
Primary Markets: The182-Day and 364-DayT-Bills were auctioned today where the government
accepted bids worth Kes.5.77Bn after receiving Kes.8.75Bn for the Kes.9Bn it had on offer. Yields rose
by 6.9bps to 10.923% on the 182-Day T-Bill and 137.3bps to 11.943% on the 364-Day T-Bill. The regulator
will be seeking Kes.3Bn from the 91-Day T-Bill that will be auctioned today.
Secondary Markets: Bond turnover improved 61% to Kes.3.1Bn driven by the 15-yr and 20-yr FXD’s that
contributed to 46% of the activity with a turnover of Kes.1.4Bn.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CD’s
Tenor Kenya Uganda Tanzania U.S LIBOR (USD)
91 Day 10.24% 9.69% 11.98% 0.09% 0.35%
182 Day 10.92% 14.68% 13.13% 0.14% 0.63%
1 Year 11.94% 13.93% 13.40% 0.17% 0.97%
2 Year 12.50% 13.34% 14.53% 0.28% --
5 Year 11.86% 12.16% 14.49% 0.72% --
10 Year 12.71% 15.28% 14.20% 1.71% --
Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital
Daily Market Note
4
Currency:
KES Maintains Its Stability…
Performance: The local currency was fairly stable with its largest losses being 1.478% in the
ZAR/KES pair followed by 0.48% against the EUR. The largest gains were 0.244% and 0.21% against
the UGX and TZS respectively. Miners return to work in the South Africa has led to the
strengthening of the Rand.
Table 8: Currency Rate
Technical Analysis and Outlook:The chart below shows the Know Sure Thing and Trading
Envelope indicators on the USDKES currency pair over a one year period. They both signify an
improvment in the volatility of the currency pair due to the tightening policy adopted by the
government in 2011 extended in the current year.
Currency Pair 6thNov 2012 7thNov 2012
USD/KES 85.55 85.51
GBP/KES 136.83 136.99
EUR/KES 109.39 109.92
ZAR/KES 9.79 9.93
KES/UGX 30.16 30.23
KES/TZS 18.57 18.61
INR/KES 1.57 1.57
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est. Estimates
Daily Market Note
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Genghis Index:
D
Table 9: Genghis Index Performance
Indicator Previous Current % Change
Price Index Performance (%) -0.13% 0.32% N/A
Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 994.334 1001.000 0.67%
No. of Shares Traded (000) 52,009 9,624 -81.50%
P/E Ratio 10.43x 10.39x N/A
Indicator Previous Current % Change
Price Index Performance (%) -0.01% -0.04% N/A
Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 145.838 145.998 0.11%
No. of Shares Traded (000) 6,185 4,359 -29.52%
P/E Ratio 6.91x 6.93x N/A
Indicator Previous Today % Change
Price Index Performance -0.32% -0.32% N/A
Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 12.747 12.665 -0.64%
No. of Shares Traded (000) 807 114 -85.89%
P/E Ratio 12.77x 12.72x N/A
Genghis Large-Cap Index
Genghis Mid-Cap Index
Genghis Small-Cap Index
Source: Genghis Capital
Large-Cap Index
The index dropped 0.32% further with Market
Capitalisation decreasing to Kes.1.001Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) up 2.30%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Kenya Airways Ltd
(NSE: KQ) down 5.00%.
Mid-Cap Index
The Index lost 0.04% over yesterday’s close as Market
Capitalisation increased to Kes.146Bn.
This section’s best performer was ScanGroup Co. Ltd
(NSE: SCAN) up 2.48%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Uchumi Ltd (NSE:
UCHM) down 2.26%.
Small-Cap Index
Price performance had a 0.09% decline as Market
Capitalization increased to Kes.12.66Bn.
Gaining by the biggest margin was Eveready East
Africa Ltd (NSE: EVRD) up 3.12%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Car and General Ltd
(NSE: C&G) shedding 4.00%.
Daily Market Note
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Daily Market Note
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Contacts Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected] Report By:AnthonyKimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: [email protected] GachanjaWeru, Fixed Income Dealer| Tel:+25420 2774756 | Email: [email protected]
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: [email protected] Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: [email protected] Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.
Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi. Tel: +254 20 2774760 Fax: +254 20 246334
