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Equities: On the backdrop of intense distribution pressure, the NSE 20 share index shone through up 11.48 points to claw closer to the target 4000 level. The NASI buoyed by increased participation gained 0.22 points to breach the 87 level. The same could not be said for the FTSE 15 and 25 indices that slipped 0.06% and 0.10% respectively. This week local investors returned to the market in droves accounting for 73% of total equity turnover. Foreign investors though remained long at Kes.45Mn. Equity turnover doubled to Kes.318Mn while Market Capitalisation remained flat at Kes.1.15Bn.
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5
Daily Market Note Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>
www.genghis-capital.com 9
th October 2012
Equities
NSE Resilience Shines Through…
On the backdrop of intense distribution pressure, the NSE 20 share index shone through up 11.48 points to claw closer to the
target 4000 level. The NASI buoyed by increased participation gained 0.22 points to breach the 87 level. The same could not
be said for the FTSE 15 and 25 indices that slipped 0.06% and 0.10% respectively. This week local investors returned to the
market in droves accounting for 73% of total equity turnover. Foreign investors though remained long at Kes.45Mn. Equity
turnover doubled to Kes.318Mn while Market Capitalisation remained flat at Kes.1.15Bn. On the regional front, trading in the
Uganda Securities Exchange has been put on hold until Friday 12th October due to the office relocation of the regulator.
"We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the day’s trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance Table 2: NSE Indices
Market Indices Summary
Index Previous Today % change
NASI 86.97 87.19 0.25%
NSE 20 Share 3971.68 3983.16 0.29%
FTSE NSE 15 115.50 115.43 -0.06%
FTSE NSE 25 118.22 118.10 -0.10%
Source: NSE
The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of today’s trading
session stood at 18/19 with 18 stocks advancing in price and 19
shedding prices.
Foreign investor participation was stable at 26.47% in today’s
trading compared to 25.51% at the close of yesterday’s session.
Today’s session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.45.8Mn
compared to a net inflow of Kes.0.526Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on British
American Tobacco Ltd (NSE: BAT)–Kes.33Mn and Kenya
Airways Ltd (NSE: KQ)–Kes.24Mn. The 2 counters accounted
for 17.9% and 67.65% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.
British American Tobacco Ltd (NSE: BAT) recorded the highest
net inflow of Kes.33Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on Co-operative Bank
Ltd (NSE: COOP) at Kes.1.7Mn.
Top Traders
Equity Volume
Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd 4,510,400
Kenya Airways Ltd 4,199,000
Safaricom Ltd 2,680,500
Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd 1,725,600
Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd 1,246,200
Gaining Stocks
Equity Price (KES) % Change
Williamson Tea Kenya 219.00 9.50
Unga Group Ltd 13.80 6.15
Standard Group Ltd 25.00 5.26
Uchumi Supermarkets 18.90 3.00
Eveready EA Ltd 1.75 2.94
Losing Stocks
Equity Price (KES) % Change
CfC Insurance Holdings 6.45 -7.86
Longhorn Kenya Ltd 10.85 -4.82
CFC Stanbic (K) Ltd 36.25 -4.61
Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd 120.00 -4.00
Sameer Africa Ltd 3.75 -2.60
Daily Market Note
2
Table 3: NSE Summary
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates
Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers
The Agriculture sector was up 1.05% to the top spot, boosted by the performances of Williamson Tea
Kenya Ltd (NSE: WTK) +9.50% to VWAP 219. The total index performance depreciated 0.15% on the back
of seven segments posting losses.
The Insurance sector occupied the bottom spot losing 1.43% dragged down by CfC Insurance Holdings
Ltd (NSE: CFCI) which shed 7.86% to close at a VWAP of Kes.6.45.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis
Foreign Investor Equity Turnover
8th October 2012 9th October 2012
Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes) Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes)
20,119,055.00 19,592,812.50 65,149,345.00 19,365,127.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position
526,242.50 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position
45,784,217.50
Sector Constituents Price Performance (% Change)
Agriculture 7 1.05
Manufacturing & Allied 9 0.90
Commercial & Services 9 0.71 Construction & Allied 5 -0.07
Banking 10 -0.29
Investment 4 -0.39
Energy & Petroleum 4 -0.41
Telecommunication & Technology 2 -0.43
Automobiles & Accessories 4 -1.15
Insurance 6 -1.43
Total Index 60 -0.15
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital
8th Oct 2012 9th Oct 2012 % Change
Market Cap. (Kes.Bn) 1150.62 1153.51 0.25%
Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn) 150.77 319.34 111.81%
Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%) 74.49/25.51 73.53/26.47 N/A
Advance:Decline Ratio 13:17 18:19 N/A
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn) 3100.20 3580.00 15.48%
Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:
(Mn)0.00 750.00 N/A
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
Total Bond T/O)0.00% 20.95% N/A
Daily Market Note
3
Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)
CompanyPrice at
Recommendation
12 Month
Target PriceCurrent Price
Upside
Potential
Return to
DateRecommendation
Centum Investments Ltd 14.55 19.55 12.05 38.36% -17.18% BUY
Equity Bank Limited 15.80 19.90 23.00 -15.58% 45.57% SELL
KenolKobil Limited 9.80 16.90 14.80 12.43% 51.02% HOLD
NIC Bank Limited 26.50 45.50 35.25 22.53% 33.02% BUY
EA Cables Ltd 11.80 14.55 11.00 24.40% -6.78% BUY
Athi River Mining Ltd 156.00 220.00 227.00 -3.18% 45.51% HOLD
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd 88.50 123.40 118.00 4.38% 33.33% HOLD
KCB Group Ltd 18.50 27.10 28.00 -3.32% 51.35% HOLD
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd 7.20 17.25 18.90 -9.57% 162.50% HOLD
Kenya Power & Lighting Co. 15.85 22.00 17.95 18.41% 13.25% BUY
Nation Media Group Ltd 153.00 197.70 214.00 -8.24% 39.87% HOLD
British American Investments 4.00 6.25 6.20 0.80% 55.00% HOLD
Bamburi Cement Limited 168.00 201.00 168.00 16.42% 0.00% HOLD
Cooperative Bank Limited 11.55 18.50 11.95 35.41% 3.46% BUY
Kenya Reinsurance Corp. 10.05 15.35 12.00 21.82% 19.40% BUY
KenGen Ltd 8.30 16.25 8.60 47.08% 3.61% BUY
Jubilee Holdings Ltd 163.00 186.00 166.00 10.75% 1.84% HOLD
Housing Finance Ltd 13.65 27.00 15.25 43.52% 11.72% BUY
Scangroup Ltd 49.25 59.60 59.00 1.01% 19.80% HOLD
Portfolio Return 29.81%
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd
Fixed Income:
Treasury Bonds Dominate…
Money Markets: The CBK was active in today’s session to mop up Kes.8.5Bn in excess liquidity through repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate slipped to 7.783%.
Primary Markets: The 182-Day T-Bill will be auctioned on Wednesday 10th October with the 91-Day T-
Bill being auctioned the following day. The government will be seeking to raise KES.4Bn from each.
The CBK will offer a 2-Yr bond worth up to Kes.12Bn in the month with the deadline on 23rd October.
Secondary Markets: Bond turnover improved 15% to Kes.3.58Bn driven by 15-Yr Treasury Bonds that
transacted Kes.1.08Bn; 30% of the total Bond turnover.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CD’s
Tenor Kenya Uganda Tanzania U.S LIBOR (USD)
91 Day 8.09% 9.67% 12.45% 0.09% 0.35%
182 Day 9.89% 10.66% 13.01% 0.13% 0.63%
1 Year 10.57% 10.69% 13.76% 0.15% 0.97%
2 Year 11.11% 14.84% 13.81% 0.23% --
5 Year 11.86% 13.91% 14.49% 0.61% --
10 Year 12.71% 15.28% 14.99% 1.62% --
Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital
Daily Market Note
4
Currency:
Tea Export Inflows Back the KES…
Performance: The shilling was stable in the day as tea inflows ensured stability. The largest
gain was in the INR/KES pair up 0.53% with the trend followed in the GBP/KES gaining 0.27%.
The largest loss was 0.101% in the ZAR/KES pair followed by 0.1% in the KES/UGX pair.
Table 8: Currency Rate
Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart exhibits the Psychological Line of the USDKES
pair over the past 3 years. The currency pair has enjoyed support from the regulator to keep
it at below the 85 level on average.
Currency Pair 8th Oct 2012 9th Oct 2012
USD/KES 84.92 84.94
GBP/KES 136.78
136.41
EUR/KES 110.28 110.01
ZAR/KES 9.67 9.68
KES/UGX 30.27 30.24
KES/TZS 18.54 18.48
INR/KES 1.63 1.62
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.
Estimates
27thJan 2012 30thJan 2012
Daily Market Note
5
Genghis Index:
D
Table 9: Genghis Index Performance
Source: Genghis Capital
Large-Cap Index
The index marginally shed 0.01% while Market
Capitalisation was up to Kes.41.5Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd (NSE: DTK) up 2.61%.
Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was CFC
Stanbic (K) Ltd (NSE: CFC) shedding 4.61%.
Mid-Cap Index
The Index lost 0.35% over yesterday’s close as Market
Capitalisation was flat at Kes.144Bn.
This section’s best performer was Standard Group Ltd
(NSE: SGL) up 5.26%.
Losing by the biggest margin was CfC Insurance
Holdings Ltd (NSE: CFCI) down 7.86%.
Small-Cap Index
Price performance gained 0.46% with market
capitalization stable at Kes.13Bn.
Gaining by the biggest margin was Williamson Tea
Kenya Ltd (NSE: WTK) up 9.50%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Longhorn Kenya
Ltd (NSE: LKL) shedding 4.82%.
Daily Market Note
6
Total Mkt Cap. Dividend
Shares Outstanding Kshs Mn. Yield - %
Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 40,000,000,000 162,000,000,000 2,680,500 1.25% 0.32 0.22 12.66 5.43%
East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 790,774,356 184,250,424,948 7,000 0.43% 13.46 8.75 17.31 3.76%
Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 3,702,777,020 85,163,871,460 592,900 -1.08% 2.79 1.00 8.24 4.35%
Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50 5,431,536,000 75,769,927,200 1,246,200 0.00% 1.49 1.50 9.36 10.75%
Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 362,959,275 60,977,158,200 12,500 0.60% 14.44 10.00 11.63 5.95%
Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 287,077,133 61,434,506,462 2,300 0.00% 19.75 11.00 10.84 5.14%
The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 3,492,369,900 41,733,820,305 1,725,600 0.42% 1.53 0.40 7.81 3.35%
Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 2,950,259,818 82,607,274,904 646,400 0.00% 3.72 1.85 7.53 6.61%
KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50 2,198,361,456 18,905,908,522 377,900 -0.58% 1.28 0.60 6.72 6.98%
British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00 100,000,000 44,500,000,000 148,200 0.23% 30.98 30.50 14.36 6.85%
Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50 157,118,572 33,623,374,408 7,800 0.94% 12.70 8.00 16.85 3.74%
CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 273,684,211 9,921,052,649 2,700 -4.61% 5.99 0.00 6.05 0.00%
Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 461,615,483 5,423,981,925 4,199,000 0.00% 3.58 0.25 3.28 2.13%
Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 1,530,000,000 9,409,500,000 4,510,400 0.00% 1.32 0.50 4.66 8.13%
Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 163,037,108 19,238,378,744 57,500 2.61% 13.58 1.70 8.69 1.44%
Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 633,024,000 11,362,780,800 207,800 0.28% 2.16 0.45 8.31 2.51%
Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 99,055,000 22,485,485,000 0 0.00% 11.63 2.00 19.52 0.88%
NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 358,997,784 12,654,671,886 9,500 -0.70% 6.72 0.50 5.25 1.42%
941,462,117,413 16,434,200 -0.01% 8.19 4.40 9.95 4.41%
GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT
Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50 604,947,068 7,289,612,169 36,700 0.84% 1.79 0.00 6.73 0.00%
KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05 1,471,761,200 21,782,065,760 1,048,200 -1.33% 2.21 1.00 6.70 6.76%
Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 284,789,128 16,802,558,552 47,200 2.61% 2.55 0.70 23.14 1.19%
National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 280,000,000 5,012,000,000 646,400 -0.56% 3.19 0.40 5.61 2.23%
E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00 90,000,000 4,320,000,000 600 -0.52% 6.24 0.50 7.69 1.04%
TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00 148,210,640 5,854,320,280 7,100 -0.63% 4.51 1.30 8.76 3.29%
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 54,450,000 9,038,700,000 5,100 0.61% 33.00 4.50 5.03 2.71%
CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 582,709,440 7,866,577,440 0 0.00% -0.31 0.00 -43.55 0.00%
Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 600,000,000 7,200,000,000 88,300 0.00% 3.19 0.35 3.76 2.92%
Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 235,750,000 3,595,187,500 198,200 0.99% 2.70 1.20 5.65 7.87%
Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 175,028,706 2,616,679,155 104,400 0.00% 3.05 0.00 4.90 0.00%
Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 33,980,265 4,111,612,065 100 -1.63% 8.89 5.00 13.61 4.13%
Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 96,000,000 3,480,000,000 100 0.00% 2.31 1.00 15.69 2.76%
E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 253,125,000 2,784,375,000 20,200 -0.45% 1.15 1.00 9.57 9.09%
AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 208,084,296 967,591,976 10,000 -2.11% 0.53 0.00 8.77 0.00%
Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 74,059,026 1,851,475,650 10,700 5.26% 2.96 0.00 8.45 0.00%
British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10 2,150,000,000 13,330,000,000 141,200 0.00% -1.09 0.15 -5.69 2.42%
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00 2,179,615,440 7,955,596,356 673,200 -1.35% 0.27 0.09 17.22 1.94%
Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 265,424,636 5,016,525,620 278,500 3.00% 1.47 0.00 12.86 0.00%
Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS 273,950,284 5,615,980,822 25,500 -2.38% 1.23 0.25 16.67 1.22%
CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00 515,270,364 3,323,493,848 9,400 -7.86% 1.84 0.00 3.51 0.00%
Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 228,055,500 2,577,027,150 6,100 -0.88% 1.72 1.00 6.57 8.85%
B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 19,525,446 1,991,595,492 0 0.00% 7.71 6.80 13.23 6.67%
144,382,974,836 3,357,200 -0.35% 3.96 1.10 6.73 2.83%
GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT
Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 278,342,393 1,043,783,974 2,100 -2.60% 0.35 0.20 10.71 5.33%
Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS 8,756,320 1,917,634,080 166,800 9.50% 93.74 57.50 2.34 26.26%
Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00 19,599,999 1,411,199,928 400 0.00% 28.06 3.75 2.57 5.21%
Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 60,000,000 1,017,000,000 22,500 2.73% 7.79 1.10 2.18 6.49%
Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 22,279,616 545,850,592 400 -2.00% 7.78 0.55 3.15 2.24%
Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 75,708,873 1,044,782,447 63,200 6.15% 2.81 0.75 4.91 5.43%
Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 23,727,000 830,445,000 0 0.00% 5.44 1.25 6.43 3.57%
Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 210,000,000 367,500,000 5,200 2.94% -0.59 - -2.97 0.00%
Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS 16,078,500 884,317,500 0 0.00% 1.36 1.25 40.44 2.27%
City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS 5,728,314 1,976,268,330 36,700 0.00% 6.12 4.00 56.37 1.16%
Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS 58,500,000 666,900,000 26,300 -4.82% 2.33 1.50 4.66 13.82%
Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS 3,912,000 469,440,000 200 -4.00% 19.93 7.50 6.02 6.25%
The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS 1,200,000 540,000,000 2,300 0.00% 33.70 7.50 13.35 1.67%
Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS 35,403,790 148,695,918 100 0.00% -6.47 - -0.65 0.00%
Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 40,000,000 136,000,000 400 0.00% 0.38 0.10 8.95 2.94%
Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14,393,106 187,110,378 200 0.00% -11.80 - -1.10 0.00%
Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS 12,868,124 38,604,372 0 0.00% 0.04 - 75.00 0.00%
13,225,532,519 326,800 0.46% 11.23 5.11 13.67 4.86%
GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT EPS DPS P/EPrice Change Total Shares Traded
Daily Market Note
7
Contacts Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected] Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: [email protected] Gachanja Weru, Fixed Income Dealer| Tel:+25420 2774756 | Email: [email protected]
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: [email protected] Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: [email protected] Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.
Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi. Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334
