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Generalized Model of Lockage Delay Based
on Historic Data
Michael R. Hilliard, Ph.D.Center for Transportation Analysis
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Smart Rivers, 2011
New Orleans
2 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Optimal Investmentin Projects andMaintenance
Random ClosureProbabilities Reliability Estimates Repair Plans
and Costs
ConstructionPlans
Cargo Forecasts
Lock Operations
Towboat/BargeOperations
Lock Risk Module
Optimal Investment
Module WaterwaySupply and
Demand Module
Ohio River Navigation Investment Model (ORNIM)
River Network
• Goal: Maximize net benefits from national investments in infrastructure
• Estimate waterway usage under future scenarios
• 50-70 year time horizon
• Lock Transit time estimates determine delay costs and influence shipment levels.
3 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Transit Curves are a foundation of analysis.
1
(Processing_rate — Arrival_rate)Average_transit =
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Theoretical Transit Estimation
Number of VesselsOr
Total Tonnage
Tra
nsit
Tim
e (h
ours
)
• Systems approach requires curves for ALL locks in the system.
• Some locks are more critical for a given analysis.
M/M/1Queue
4 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Multiple Roads to Transit Curves
Historic Lockage
Data
Lockage Component
Distributions
Time Period Averages
Individual Lockage
Estimates
Simulation Results
Fitted Transit Curves
Simple Simulation
ResultsLock Groups
5 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Multiple Roads to Transit Curves
Historic Lockage
Data
Lockage Component
Distributions
Time Period Averages
Individual Lockage
Estimates
Simulation Results
Fitted Transit Curves
Simple Simulation
ResultsLock Groups
6 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
7 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
8 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
9 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Multiple Roads to Transit Curves
Historic Lockage
Data
Lockage Component
Distributions
Time Period Averages
Individual Lockage
Estimates
Simulation Results
Fitted Transit Curves
Simple Simulation
ResultsLock Groups
10 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
More than 40 thousand cuts over ten years
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Aver
age
Wai
ting
Tim
e
Cuts Per Year
Lagrange 2000-2009
Annual Traffic
M/M/1 Estimate
M/G/1 Estimate
11 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Some Locks have much less traffic
0 50 100 150 200 250 3000
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
Allegheny 6 (2000-2009)
Commercial Lockages
Aver
age
Tran
sit T
ime
12 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Multiple Roads to Transit Curves
Historic Lockage
Data
Lockage Component
Distributions
Time Period Averages
Individual Lockage
Estimates
Simulation Results
Fitted Transit Curves
Simple Simulation
ResultsLock Groups
13 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Individual Estimations
• Each transit record becomes a data item
• Error checking on data
• Rolling average of arrival and processing rates
• Arrival rate = average arrival rate of last 20 tows
• Processing Rate = average of last 20 lockages
Benefits
• Seasonality captured
• Variations in processing over time allowed
• Fitting to 1000s of points—Trade details for large numbers
14 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Transform and generalize the model
1
(Processing_rate — Arrival_rate)Average_transit =
Log(Average_transit) = C+B*Log(Processing_rate — Arrival_rate)
Log(Average_transit) = -Log(Processing_rate — Arrival_rate)
D_Rate
Linear Fit
15 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Checking the Fit Graphically
16 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Many Fit Well
17 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
But sometimes they don’t
• Construction & closures• Changes to lock
structures• Very low traffic levels
18 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Some locks may be too complex for this approach
19 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Multiple Roads to Transit Curves
Historic Lockage
Data
Lockage Component
Distributions
Time Period Averages
Individual Lockage
Estimates
Simulation Results
Fitted Transit Curves
Simple Simulation
ResultsLock Groups
• Size• Up/Down
ratio• etc.
20 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy Hilliard-Lock Delay Based on Historical Data
Currently experimenting with ways to use the parameters.
Direct Formula• Assume “consistent” arrivals
• Assume average processing rate
• Guaranteed to be a “nice” curve– Increasing delay– Accelerating – Limited capacity
Simple Simulation• Spreadsheet based
simulation
• Arrival rate varies to match seasonality (with or without randomness)
• Quick model of changes to processing times or planned closures.