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General AviationGeneral AviationMyths & Realities: Myths & Realities:
Preparing Your Airport for What’s Preparing Your Airport for What’s AheadAhead
April 20,2010April 20,2010
SEC-AAAE Annual ConferenceSEC-AAAE Annual Conference
Next Year Will Arrive in 2011-ishNext Year Will Arrive in 2011-ish"Forecasting future events is often like searching for a
black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be there. "
--Steve Davidson in The Crystal Ball.
"If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me. "
--William Shakespeare
"It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all. "
--Henri Poincare in The Foundations of Science
Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't! “
--Anon.
Economic Cycles Fuel Shocks Transitory Events Product/Manufacturer Liability Tax Incentives
Historical Impact FactorsHistorical Impact Factors
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
E
Ac
tiv
e A
irc
raft
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Ho
urs
Flo
wn
(in
th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Recessions Active Aircraft Hours Flown
Oil SpikeOil
SpikeOil Spike
GeneralAviation
RevitalizationAct
Bonus Depreciation
Source: FAA, L&B
Small piston aircraft dominate the U.S. general aviation fleet. Business jet and turboprop aircraft still have relatively small share of the market
Almost two thirds of U.S. general aviation is for business or commercial purposes
Piston aircraft are deployed in more discretionary uses than turboprop and jet aircraft
GA Fleet & Primary UseGA Fleet & Primary Use
163,013 89%
8,906 5%
11,042 6%
182,961 100%
# of Aircraft % of Total
15% 85%
12% 88%
47% 53%
37% 63%
Personal Business
Piston
Turboprop
Business Jet
Source: FAA, L&B
Prolonged decline in single engine piston use masks growth in business jet and turboprop segments
Business jet aircraft utilization increased threefold between 1994 and 2006. Segment most effected by recent recession
Turboprop utilization has more than doubled
Segmentation tells a story…Segmentation tells a story…
Index of Hours Flown by Aircraft Type:
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
E
Index (
19
90
=1
00
)
Total Hours Flown
J et
Turboprop
Piston
Source: FAA, L&B
Economic Growth Corporate Profits Public Perception Commercial Airline Product
Business GA Market Drivers…Business GA Market Drivers… Fractional Ownership Value of Time Metro Airport Congestion Security (TSA)
Percent Change in Real U.S. GDP
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
An
nu
al P
erc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Historical Forecast
-2.4%
3.2%
4.0%
4.0%
Long Term2.7% AAG
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve.
Cost of Fuel! Cost of Fuel!! Personal Liability Socio-Economic Factors Aviation Career Opportunities
Private GA Market Drivers…Private GA Market Drivers…
Crude Oil Prices Per Barrel (In 2008$)
$100$104
$98
$87
$111
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
Cru
de
Oil (
$ p
er
Barr
el)
Actual Forecast
Source: EIA
Green Shoots or Yellow Weeds…Green Shoots or Yellow Weeds…
FAA Forecast 2009-2030:CAGR
Active Aircraft:Piston 0.1%Turboprop 1.4%J et 4.2%Total 0.5%
Hours Flown:Piston 1.0%Turboprop 1.7%J et 6.1%Total 2.3%
Bombardier Business J et Fleet Forecast :2009-2018
World Wide Delivery Units 11,500Worldwide CAGR 6.0%North America Delivery Units 5,400North America CAGR 4.0%
Rolls Royce Market Outlook:2009-2028
CAGRVLJ 's 14.7%Small Business J ets 1.8%Medium Business J ets 3.3%Large Business J ets 7.9%Busines J et Total 4.4%
Honeywell Business Aviation Outlook2009-2019
Business J et Delivery Units 11,000Long Range 1,500Large 1,000Medium 2,400Light 2,400Very Light 2,800Personal J ets 1,000
Is Airport Closure an Option…Is Airport Closure an Option…
The majority of U.S. airports are federally obligated Grant assurances that obligate the airport sponsor
will require the facility to be operated for a set amount of time (normally 20 years)
There is no limit to the duration of obligations for airport property acquired with federal monies
Private airports for public and private use have and will fail
“The FAA has only rarely granted a sponsor a release from its Federal obligations sufficient to allow for the closure of an airport, and then only in very unusual circumstances. A request for airport closure from a sponsor requires a demonstration that closure results in a net benefit to aviation. Because of the important role that this Airport plays, the FAA does not anticipate granting any request for release to allow closure of the Airport. The Airport is and will continue to be too valuable for that to occur.”
Demand or supply…what’s the Demand or supply…what’s the hurdle?hurdle?
AirportCompetition
CatchmentArea
Profile MonitorActivityTrends
LocalBusinessSurvey
MarketCapture
TenantAircraft
PurchasePlans
FacilityInventory
FacilityBenchmarking
MarketPotential
Local &Itinerant
User Survey
FinancialPosition/Funding
Runway Requirements…Runway Requirements… Define Critical Aircraft Part 91, Part 91K, Part 135 operations Minimum Standards/Insurance
VLJ
Light Jet
Midsize Jet
Large Jet
Long RangeJet
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Citation Mustang
Phenom 100
Hawker 400
Citation Encore
Learjet 35
Hawker 750
Hawker 900
Gulfstream 150
Citation X
Hawker 4000
Falcon 2000EX/ LX
Gulfstream 450
Global Express
Gulfstream 500
Runway LengthNote: Assumes MTOW, ISA, Sea Level
Impact on Airside Planning Standards…Impact on Airside Planning Standards…
StandardA-I
Cessna 172
B-IPhenom
100
B-IICessna
Citation II
B-IICessna
Citation II
C-IIIGulfstream
V
Minimum Runway Length
1,632’ 3,400’ 3,360’ 3,360’ 5,930’
Approach Minimum(statute miles)
>= ¾Small Only
< ¾ >= ¾ < ¾ < ¾
Runway Safety Area (RSA) - Width
120’ 300’ 150’ 300’ 500’
RSA – Length Beyond R/W End
240’ 600’ 300’ 600’ 1,000’
Object Free Area (OFA) – Width
250’ 800’ 500’ 800’ 800’
OFA – Length Beyond R/W End
240’ 600’ 300’ 600’ 1,000’
Runway to Taxiway C/L Separation
150’ Small Only
250’ 240’ 300’ 400’
Re-visit Airport Role in State System Plan & NPIAS Community Implications On-Airport Land Use (Non-precision approaches) Financial & Funding Considerations
Case Study 1 (Dayton Wright Bros)…Case Study 1 (Dayton Wright Bros)… Benefit Cost Analysis Removal of 590 ft. displaced threshold allowing for
full use of 5,000 foot Runway 20 Full ILS for Runway 20 Primary beneficiaries B-II design category jets
DRAFT
Exhibit
F ile: W:\DWB\RSA ST UDY\RSA Sutdy ALT-1 (Future ALP).dwg | Layout: RW 20
RSA STUDY
ALT-1 R/ W 20 2
1" =
0Graphic Scale in Feet
300150
300'
1. Relocate Austin Road2. Relocate utility corr idor along Austin Road modifications3. Relocate ai rport security fence4. New ai rport service roadway5. New runway blast pad6. New PAPI system ( remove VASI-4)7. Eliminate current 590-foot disp laced threshold8. Insta llation of MALSR approach light system ( remove existing MALS)9. Upgrade the existing Runway 20 localizer unit10. Add runway 20 gl ide slope, RVR (2), outer marker11. Runway marking, lighting and signage12. Proper ty Acquisi tion and Land Swap within the Runway 20 approach area13. Future aviation easements within the Runway 20 approach area14. Re-grading of the runway safety area15. Runway obstruction mi tigation16. Relocate Miami Township Maintenance Facility
Displaced Threshold
1,100-foot runway/taxiway extension
Case Study 2 (Gnoss Field)…Case Study 2 (Gnoss Field)…
4,400 feet
The current runway length of 3,300 feet limits the ability of current Airport tenants to operate aircraft at optimum weight for maximum efficiency
The Airport needs to comply with current FAA standards for Runway Safety Areas (RSAs)
Critical Aircraft: Citation 525
Runway Approach Lighting…Runway Approach Lighting…
Business and corporate operators want ability to operate at night under instrument conditions
Land availability considerations
MALSR gives CAT I type capability
MALSF option based on land availability, could affect minimums
Navigational Aids…Navigational Aids…
Precision Approaches• ILS- (Glide Slope, Localiser-DME, Marker
Beacons)• GPS – Global Position System• RNP – Required Navigation Performance
Non-Precision Approaches• VOR – Very High Frequency Omni-range• RNAV - Area Navigation (GPS-LNAV, VNAV,
LPV) LAAS (Local Area Augmentation System) WAAS (Wide Area Augmentation System)
Radar Approaches• PAR – Precision Approach Radar• ASR – Airport Surveillance Radar
The fuel dichotomy…The fuel dichotomy… Jet aircraft account for 17 percent of general
aviation hours flown but almost 75 percent of total fuel consumed
Greater emphasis on JetA and full service fueling Should airport allow non FBO tenants to establish
self fueling capabilities? Price of fuel should reflect level of service
Piston
Turboprop
Business Jet
14 gph
94 gph
365 gph 74%
13%
13%
Total Fuel Consumption(2008, in gallons)
Source: FAA
A more demanding customer base…A more demanding customer base…
Pilot/CrewLounge
JetAircraft
Maintenance
CustomerCheck InCounter/
Lounge Area
CourtesyTransportation/Ground Access
AircraftDe-Icing
Services/Facilities
Fuel Tanks
Weather/Flight
PlanningFacility
Hangars(Long Term/Overnight)
BusinessCenter/
Wifi
Oxygen/NitrogenService
TowingEquipment
ExtendedHours
of Operation
THANK YOU!!!!THANK YOU!!!!
Contact:Dil [email protected] (cell)513-530-1226 (office)
Contact:Monica [email protected] (cell)513-530-1207 (office)
