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GE Energy
Asia Development BankWind Energy Grid Integration Workshop:
Issues and Challengesfor systems with high penetration of Wind PowerNicholas W. Miller
GE Energy ConsultingBeijingSeptember 22-23, 2013Disclaimer: The views expressed in this document are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this document, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.
Large Scale Integration – an introduction
3 Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy
ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
2004 New York3 GW Wind10% Peak
Load4% Energy
2005 Ontario15 GW Wind50% Peak
Load30% Energy
2006 California13 GW Wind3 GW Solar26% Peak
Load15% Energy
2007 Texas15 GW Wind25% Peak
Load17% Energy
2009 Western U.S.
72 GW Wind15 GW Solar50% Peak
Load27% Energy
2010 New England
12 GW Wind39% Peak
Load24% Energy
2008 Maui70 MW Wind39% Peak
Load25% Energy2010 Oahu500 MW Wind100 MW Solar55% Peak
Load25% Energy
GE’s Integration of Renewables Experience
PJM Study (underway)
96GW Wind22GW Solar30% Energy
Studies commissioned by utilities, commissions, ISOs...
• Examine feasibility of 100+ GW of new renewables
• Consider operability, costs, emissions, transmission
Need for fleet flexibility, new operating strategies and markets, transmission reinforcement, grid
friendly renewables
4Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy Consulting
ADB Wind Integration WorkshopSeptember 23-24, 2013
Major Study Results :•Large interconnected power systems can
accommodate variable generation (Wind + Solar) penetration levels exceeding 30% of peak loads
•But not by doing more of the same…..
To reach higher levels of wind generation and other renewables:
•Get the infrastructure right
•And use it betterThe debate has changed: No longer: “Is it possible?”
Now: “How do we get there?”
5Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy Consulting
ADB Wind Integration WorkshopSeptember 23-24, 2013
Renewables (%)
EnablersS
yste
m C
ost
Impediments Enablers• Wind Forecasting• Flexible Thermal fleet
– Faster quick starts– Deeper turn-down– Faster ramps
• More spatial diversity of wind/solar
• Grid-friendly wind and solar• Demand response ancillary
services
Impediments• Lack of transmission• Lack of control area cooperation• Market rules / contracts
constraints• Unobservable DG – “behind the
fence”• Inflexible operation strategies
during light load & high risk periods
System CostUnserved Energy
Missing Wind/Solar Target
Higher Cost of Electricity
All grid can accommodate substantial levels of wind and solar power … There is
never a hard limit
Lessons Learned
6Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy Consulting
ADB Wind Integration WorkshopSeptember 23-24, 2013
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 500
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Farm power (MW per interval)
Fre
quen
cy (%
)
100MW Oahu + 200MW Lanai + 200MW Molokai
0.1% percentile (1min) = -12.27
0.1% percentile (5min) = -31.336
0.1% percentile (10min) = -49.305
Negative most (1min) = -22.479
Negative most (5min) = -54.9215
Negative most (10min) = -90.258
99.9% percentile (1min) = 11.7685
99.9% percentile (5min) = 33.0615
99.9% percentile (10min) = 54.0865
Positive most (1min) = 22.5425
Positive most (5min) = 65.0885
Positive most (10min) = 95.845
Interval = 1min
Interval = 5min
Interval = 10min
1 day1 min 1 hr 1 wk10 min1 sec
GovernorResponse
Governor Response Automatic
Generation Control
AGC Regulation Economic
DispatchEconomicDispatch
ArbitragePlanning
GovernorResponseInertiaInertia
Positive Sequence Load Flow (GE PSLFTM)
Interhour Renewables Variability AnalysisTM
Long-term Dynamic Simulations (AGC)TM
Multi-Area Production Simulation (GE MAPSTM)
GovernorResponseSupportVoltage
Statistical Wind Power Variability Assessments
-0.25 -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.250
10
20
30
40
50
Power ramp (pu per interval)
Fre
quency
(%
)
0% percentile (10min) = -0.140% percentile (60min) = -0.450.1% percentile (10min) = -0.090.1% percentile (60min) = -0.27
99.9% percentile (10min) = 0.1099.9% percentile (60min) = 0.31100% percentile (10min) = 0.18100% percentile (60min) = 0.48
Interval = 10min
Interval = 60min
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 1500
10
20
30
40
50
Power ramp (MW per interval)
Fre
quency
(%
)
0% percentile (10min) = -82.850% percentile (60min) = -269.050.1% percentile (10min) = -54.900.1% percentile (60min) = -163.16
99.9% percentile (10min) = 60.1199.9% percentile (60min) = 183.45100% percentile (10min) = 105.95100% percentile (60min) = 289.31
Interval = 10min
Interval = 60min
2008
-0.25 -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.250
10
20
30
40
50
Power ramp (pu per interval)
Fre
quency
(%
)
0% percentile (10min) = -0.140% percentile (60min) = -0.450.1% percentile (10min) = -0.090.1% percentile (60min) = -0.27
99.9% percentile (10min) = 0.1099.9% percentile (60min) = 0.31100% percentile (10min) = 0.18100% percentile (60min) = 0.48
Interval = 10min
Interval = 60min
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 1500
10
20
30
40
50
Power ramp (MW per interval)
Fre
quency
(%
)
0% percentile (10min) = -82.850% percentile (60min) = -269.050.1% percentile (10min) = -54.900.1% percentile (60min) = -163.16
99.9% percentile (10min) = 60.1199.9% percentile (60min) = 183.45100% percentile (10min) = 105.95100% percentile (60min) = 289.31
Interval = 10min
Interval = 60min
2008
These tools are used together to identify, assess
and propose solutions for
managing the wind integration
challenges
A variety of tools across many timescales…Subhourly
7 Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy
ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Western Wind & Solar StudyCan 35% wind and solar, by energy be integrated into the western United States?
Goal: Assess the operating impacts and economics of wind and solar
•How do local resources compare to remote, higher quality resources delivered by long distance transmission?
•Can balancing area cooperation help manage variability?
•Do we need more reserves?
•Do we need more storage?
•How does geographic diversity help?
•What is the value of forecasting? 30% wind5% solar
In Footprint
20% wind3% solar
Out of Footprint
Source: NREL Western Wind & Solar Integration StudyFinal report http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/47434.pdf
Executive summary http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/47781.pdf
8Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy Consulting
ADB Wind Integration WorkshopSeptember 23-24, 2013
Study Area Dispatch - Week of July 10th - No Wind
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
MON JUL 10 TUE JUL 11 WED JUL 12 THU JUL 13 FRI JUL 14 SAT JUL 15 SUN JUL 16
MW
Nuclear Steam Coal Wind
Solar CSP w/ Storage Solar PV Combined Cycle
Gas Turbine Pumped Storage Hydro Hydro
Study Area Dispatch - Week of July 10th - 10%R
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
MON JUL 10 TUE JUL 11 WED JUL 12 THU JUL 13 FRI JUL 14 SAT JUL 15 SUN JUL 16
MW
Study Area Dispatch - Week of July 10th - 20%R
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
MON JUL 10 TUE JUL 11 WED JUL 12 THU JUL 13 FRI JUL 14 SAT JUL 15 SUN JUL 16
MW
Study Area Dispatch - Week of July 10th - 30%R
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
MON JUL 10 TUE JUL 11 WED JUL 12 THU JUL 13 FRI JUL 14 SAT JUL 15 SUN JUL 16
MW
Week of July 10th (Peak-Load Season)
No Wind
10% Wind Energy
20% Wind Energy
30% Wind Energy
9Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy Consulting
ADB Wind Integration WorkshopSeptember 23-24, 2013
Study Area Dispatch - Week of April 10th - 10%R
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
MON APR 10 TUE APR 11 WED APR 12 THU APR 13 FRI APR 14 SAT APR 15 SUN APR 16
MW
Study Area Dispatch - Week of April 10th - No Wind
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
MON APR 10 TUE APR 11 WED APR 12 THU APR 13 FRI APR 14 SAT APR 15 SUN APR 16
MW
Nuclear Steam Coal Wind
Solar CSP w/ Storage Solar PV Combined Cycle
Gas Turbine Pumped Storage Hydro Hydro
Study Area Dispatch - Week of April 10th - 20%R
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
MON APR 10 TUE APR 11 WED APR 12 THU APR 13 FRI APR 14 SAT APR 15 SUN APR 16
MW
Study Area Dispatch - Week of April 10th - 30%R
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
MON APR 10 TUE APR 11 WED APR 12 THU APR 13 FRI APR 14 SAT APR 15 SUN APR 16
MW
Week of April 10th (Loads are lower, winds are higher)
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Operating Cost
• As the penetration of wind increases, the system operating cost (production cost) decreases.
• The savings is not proportional to the penetration level of wind
– Diminishing returns with increased penetration
• Wind forecast accuracy is important to capture all operating cost savings from increased wind penetration.
– Forecast has substantial and increasing impact as penetration level increases
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Operating Cost Savings ($M)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Pre R L 10 R L 20 R L 30 R
Sa
vin
gs
($
M)
Operating Cost Savings ($M)
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Locational Marginal Price (LMP)
• Wind is assumed to enter the market as a “zero cost” price taker.
– Wind generation revenues are assumed to equal their LMP market value
• As the penetration of wind increases, the LMP decreases.
– The highest priced hours see the largest impact.
– With perfect forecast of wind, LMP decreases for all hours
– With State of Art forecast, LMP may increase at times due to forecast errors
LMP is a good way to look at operational economic, even without full locational power markets
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Generation Revenue ($B) - WECC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
No Wind Pre R L 10 R L 20 R L 30 R
Re
ve
nu
e (
$B
)
Renewable
Non-Renew
Generator Revenues forAll of WECC ($B)
No Wind ExistingWind
10% WindEnergy
30% WindEnergy
20% WindEnergy
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Impact on other resources
Thermal (especially coal) cycling
Hydro operation
Inter-area cooperation
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Total Number of Starts
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
No Wind Pre R L 10 R L 10 R L 20 R L 30 R
CC
ST-COAL
Total Number of Generator Startsfor Combined Cycle and Coal Plants
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
How do hydro constraints affect these results?
Cost if you dispatch hydro to load only, not net load
Cost increase if hydro output kept flat over the
year
Ope
ratin
g co
st in
crea
se (
$M)
Scheduling and dispatch of hydro AFTER wind saves operating costs
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Operating Cost Savings ($B) - WECC - 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
Pre P I 10 P I 20 P I 30 P Pre R I 10 R I 20 R I 2020 R I 30 R
Savin
gs (
$B
illio
ns)
P = perfect wind forecast R = state-of-art wind forecast
$20B in savings$88/MWh of
wind
Operating Cost Savings due to Wind Forecasts
$2B in savingsFor “perfect”
forecasts
At 30% renewable energy penetration, this system CAN NOT operate without
forecasts
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Savings from better inter-area cooperation
Full inter-area cooperation
Partial cooperation
Nicholas W. Miller, GE Energy ConsultingADB Wind Integration Workshop
September 23-24, 2013
Wind Curtailment is reduced by cooperation
Full cooperationPart cooperation
Business-as-usual