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Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke
Sec�on 7: Impacts
Outline
7.1 Mechanisms of impacts to natural systems 7.1.1 phenology 7.1.2 primary produc�vity 7.1.3 range and abundance 7.1.4 indirect effects of climate change 7.1.5 challenges of plant/animal responses
7.2 Case studies 7.2.1 water resources 7.2.2 ocean effects 7.2.3 plant/animal effects 7.2.4 extreme events 7.2.5 human health 7.2.6 human security
Global Climate Change 2 Prof J. Hicke
GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014
Learning outcomes
understand the mechanisms by which climate change affects natural systems
list the wide range of impacts of climate change on human and natural systems
describe in detail case studies that illustrate the impacts of climate change on human and natural systems
Sec�on 7: Impacts
Global Climate Change 3 Prof J. Hicke
Sec�on 7: Impacts
Outline
7.1 Mechanisms of impacts to natural systems 7.1.1 phenology 7.1.2 primary produc�vity 7.1.3 range and abundance 7.1.4 indirect effects of climate change 7.1.5 challenges of plant/animal responses
7.2 Case studies 7.2.1 water resources 7.2.2 ocean effects 7.2.3 plant/animal effects 7.2.4 extreme events 7.2.5 human health 7.2.6 human security
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Global Climate Change 4 Prof J. Hicke
Parmesan, 2007
Phenological changes in response to warming
one week/decade
one month/decade
Global Climate Change 5 Prof J. Hicke Durant et al., Climate Research, 2007
triggered by sun triggered by temperature
climate change historical
Seasonal mis�ming
Global Climate Change 6 Prof J. Hicke Stenseth and Mysterud, PNAS, 2002
climate change historical
Seasonal mis�ming
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Global Climate Change 7 Prof J. Hicke Stenseth and Mysterud, PNAS, 2002
climate change historical
Seasonal mis�ming
Global Climate Change 8 Prof J. Hicke
Trends in net primary produc�vity derived from satellite observa�ons, 1982–1998
Hicke et al., GBC, 2002
Global Climate Change 9 Prof J. Hicke
IPCC, AR5, WG II, 2013
Rates of plant/animal movement rela�ve to rate of climate change
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Global Climate Change 10 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Habitat fragmenta�on limits climate change response
Global Climate Change 11 Prof J. Hicke
Sec�on 7: Impacts
Outline
7.1 Mechanisms of impacts to natural systems 7.1.1 phenology 7.1.2 primary produc�vity 7.1.3 range and abundance 7.1.4 indirect effects of climate change 7.1.5 challenges of plant/animal responses
7.2 Case studies 7.2.1 water resources 7.2.2 ocean effects 7.2.3 plant/animal effects 7.2.4 extreme events 7.2.5 human health 7.2.6 human security
Global Climate Change 12 Prof J. Hicke
Similar trends seen throughout the western United States -‐ 73% of sta�ons show a decline in April 1 snow water equivalent
• Most PNW sta�ons show a decline in snow water equivalent
• Numerous sites in the Cascades with 30% to 60% declines
Decrease Increase
Decrease Increase
Trends in Snow Water Equivalent
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Global Climate Change 13 Prof J. Hicke
Spring snowpack is projected to decline as more winter precipita�on falls as rain rather than snow, especially in warmer mid-‐eleva�on basins Snowpack will melt earlier with warmer spring temperatures
Lower Spring Snowpack
+4°F, +4.5% winter precip
April 1 Snowpack
Global Climate Change 14 Prof J. Hicke
Advances of 10-‐30 days between 1948-‐2000
Greatest trends in PNW, Canada, and AK
>30% of trends are sta�s�cally significant at the 90% level, especially in the PNW
Stewart, I., Cayan, D.R., and De�nger, M.D., 2004, Changes in snowmelt runoff �ming in western North America under a "Business as Usual" climate change scenario: Clima�c Change 62, 217-‐232.
+ 20 days later -‐ 20 days earlier
Peak of spring runoff is moving earlier into the spring throughout western US and Canada
Trends in Spring Runoff
Global Climate Change 15 Prof J. Hicke
More winter rain → higher winter streamflows Warmer temperatures → earlier snowmelt and a shi� in the �ming of peak runoff
Lower winter snowpack → lower spring and summer flows
Shi�s in Streamflow
+3.6 (~2050s) to +5.4°F (~2080s)
Sensi�vity analysis for the Yakima River basin
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Global Climate Change 16 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Globally, many areas will have reduced water availability
Global Climate Change 17 Prof J. Hicke IPCC, Working Group II, 2007
Examples of cascading impacts on freshwater
Global Climate Change 18 Prof J. Hicke
Bull trout habitat to decline with future warming
+0.6ºC
+1.6ºC +5.0ºC
Rieman et al. 2007
Joseph R. Tomelleri
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Global Climate Change 19 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Global Climate Change 20 Prof J. Hicke NOAA, State of Washington Report on Ocean Acidifica�on, 2012
Ocean acidifica�on from increased CO2
30% more acidic since 1800s
Global Climate Change 21 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Bleached coral
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Global Climate Change 22 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Recent high temperatures and coral bleaching
Global Climate Change 23 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Coral bleaching
Global Climate Change 24 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Ocean temperature projec�ons and corals
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Global Climate Change 25 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Defending against sea level rise in the Maldives Islands
Global Climate Change 26 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Global Climate Change 27 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
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Global Climate Change 28 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
New shipping routes through ice-‐free Arc�c
Global Climate Change 29 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Resources in Arc�c
Global Climate Change 30 Prof J. Hicke Allen et al., FEM, 2010
Climate change and tree mortality
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Global Climate Change 31 Prof J. Hicke
Loca�ons of warming-‐induced forest die-‐offs
Allen et al., FEM, 2010; IPCC AR 5 WG 2, 2013
Global Climate Change 32 Prof J. Hicke
evapora�ve demand by atmosphere
temperature
precipita�on
Forest Drought Stress Index
1572-‐1587 megadrought
Williams et al., Nature Climate Change, 2012
Drought: Projec�ons of forest stress given climate change in the Southwest
Global Climate Change 33 Prof J. Hicke
Wildfires accelerate 1970 – 2003 with early snowmelt, longer, drier summers
Westerling et al Science 2006, Running, Science 2006
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Wildfire: Projec�ons based on future climate change
Li�ell et al., Ecological Applica�ons, 2009; Na�onal Academies, Climate Stabiliza�on Targets, 2010
increase in burned area for 1º C increase in temperature
Global Climate Change 35 Prof J. Hicke
Recent beetle range
Historical host
(lodgepole pine) range
Potential host (jack
pine) range
Logan and Powell 2001
Range expansion of mountain pine beetle into novel host
Climate change opens up new habitat
www.realvail.com trib.com
“Every day across the West, an es�mated 100,000 lodgepole pines fall in the forest…” USFS
Lodgepole pines killed by bark beetles Cascading consequences of climate change
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Global Climate Change 37 Prof J. Hicke
Range shi�s: observa�ons
Hannah 2011
Edith’s checkerspot bu�erfly
Global Climate Change 38 Prof J. Hicke Rehfeldt et al., 2006
Predic�ons of major tree species in the West in response to
climate change
expansions and contrac�ons
Current 2030s 2060s 2090s
Ponderosa pine
Western larch
Douglas-‐fir
Engelmann spruce
Global Climate Change 39 Prof J. Hicke
American pika
Range shi�s are some�mes complicated
Hannah 2011
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Global Climate Change 40 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Biome shi�s in response to climate change
Global Climate Change 41 Prof J. Hicke
Es�mated effect of past climate change on crop yields 1960-‐2013
IPCC 2013 WGII report
Global Climate Change 42 Prof J. Hicke
Crop yields will mostly decline Maize
Wheat
Rice IPCC, AR5, WG2, 2013
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Global Climate Change 43 Prof J. Hicke IPCC, Working Group II, 2007
Future impacts on agriculture
Global Climate Change 44 Prof J. Hicke
95th percen�le temperature events (smoothed)
Cumou and Rahmstorf, Nature Climate Change, 2012
European heat waves
2003: 70,000 deaths 2010: 55,000 deaths
Global Climate Change 45 Prof J. Hicke
Projected distribu�on of malaria
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Global Climate Change 46 Prof J. Hicke
Na�onal Climate Assessment, 2014
Global Climate Change 47 Prof J. Hicke
Na�onal Climate Assessment, 2014
Global Climate Change 48 Prof J. Hicke
Na�onal Climate Assessment, 2014
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Global Climate Change 49 Prof J. Hicke
Na�onal Climate Assessment, 2014
Global Climate Change 50 Prof J. Hicke Na�onal Climate Assessment, 2014
Illustra�on of climate change refugees?
Global Climate Change 51 Prof J. Hicke IPCC, Working Group II, 2007
Impacts on human health
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Global Climate Change 52 Prof J. Hicke
CNA Corp., 2007, “Na�onal Security and the Threat of Climate Change”
Global Climate Change 53 Prof J. Hicke
“Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world
Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world
Climate change, national security, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges”
Findings
CNA Corp., 2007, “Na�onal Security and the Threat of Climate Change”
Global Climate Change 54 Prof J. Hicke
CNA Corp., 2007, “Na�onal Security and the Threat of Climate Change”
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Global Climate Change 55 Prof J. Hicke
Na�onal Security and the Accelera�ng Risks of Climate Change, CNA Military Advisory Board, 2014
Climate change stresses water, food, energy
Global Climate Change 56 Prof J. Hicke Na�onal Security and the Accelera�ng Risks of Climate Change, CNA Military Advisory Board, 2014
Climate change and military infrastructure
Global Climate Change 57 Prof J. Hicke
www.dw.de/record-‐numbers-‐of-‐refugees-‐says-‐unhcr/a-‐16038996
Refugees in 2011
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Global Climate Change 58 Prof J. Hicke
Kitchen, 2013
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Expected regional impacts as func�ons of
warming
Global Climate Change 59 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Possible impacts following 4ºC increase in temperature
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