Gavin Newsom for the Future of California

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FOR THE

FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA

Campaign Document

Lieuwe M. Verhage

PolySci 106A: CAMPAIGN STRATEGY, MEDIA ANDMESSAGEDan Schnur

University of California, BerkeleyDecember 11, 2008


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Marius Verhage1Introduction

This campaign document is written for the Gavin Newsom for Governor campaign, which is

created in order to draft a campaign for Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco, which will

convince a majority of the voters (52%) to vote for him in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election.

As a premise, the states Democratic and Republican Primary have already been held, and our

candidates opponent in Steve Poizner, current State Insurance Commissioner.

The current Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, won the 2003 recall election, and was

reelected in 2006. His two term governorship means he is term-limited and has, under current

state law, no right to seek reelection, which makes the 2010 race one without incumbents.

While Schwarzeneggers approval ratings have been as high as 61% in September 2004, they

have declined considerable during the last couple of monthsbetween March to September

2008 he fell 6 points to a 38% approval ratting.i This is largely due to the state, national and

international economic crisis, with jobs and the economy being named the most important

issue by 44% of Californians, a 31 point increase in importance since September 2007. The

bad economic position of the state as well as the nation also reflects constituents opinion in

which direction the state is going. With a majority along all affiliation lines (72% Democrat,

68% Republicans and 60% Independents) Californians think that the state is going in the

wrong direction.ii

This situation shows that California is ready for a Governor with a new approach, one that

can bring back the voters belief and confidence in the state. Gavin Newsom, by emphasizing

his innovative and pragmatic approach to problems as his two terms as Mayor of San

Francisco show, can bring back the voters faith in the future of the state. He can do this by

focusing on three issue: 21st Century Economy, Education and Equality, with which he will

Bring Back the Future to California.


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Marius Verhage3During his first term as Mayor, Newsom focused on bringing businesses to the city by

granting them tax incentives, with a special focus on biotech and high tech companies. The

latter was in line with Newsoms efforts in making San Francisco more environmentally

friendly, with at its crowing glory the joining of the Kyoto Protocol. Major Newsom

proposed even farther-reaching measures that would lead to carbon neutrality of the city

government by 2020.iv

One of the methods to do so, is building in an energy friendly manner, as proposed by

Newsoms Better Neighborhoods and HOME plans, which, in five years, will create more

than 15.000 new houses in the cityof which 33% especially build for low and very low

income households. These programs, combined with the Care not Cash and the Homeward

Bound measures, contribute to the almost 40% decline in homeless people on the streets of

San Francisco, measures that gave Newsom national attention. v

He continued the extension of the city funded health insurance program to young adults

previously only to childrenand in 2007 he proposed a universal health care program for all

citizens. This shares the burden of costs amongst the city, workers and employers, and

provide health care for 82.000 uninsured. Furthermore, he also created pre- and afterschool

programs for all children in San Francisco.vi

In order to combat the recent economic crisis, Major Newsom proposed an increase of the

minimum wage from $9.36 to $9.79, to be effective on January 1, 2009. At the same time, he

asked the supervisors to support cuts for most programsincluding social services and

healthand mentioned that layoffs where inevitable. Furthermore, Newsom proposed a

Economic Stimulus Package, which focused on accelerating capital projects.vii

Strengths/weaknesses

His abundant plans, however, show one of Newsoms biggest policy weaknesses, since most


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Marius Verhage4of his plans considerably pressure the city budget. During financially hard times, it will be

difficult to deliver the voters exactly what he has promised them.

His attitude towards the press, as well as his highly publicized affair, have given Newsom

a public image that could be hurting him during an election. However, he tries to circumvent

this issue by relying more on media outlets that he can controla radio show, YouTubeand

is praised for it.

His steadfast stance on same-sex marriage, while popular amongst certain voter groups,

could play a huge role in the decision making process of voters opposing him on that single

issue. The use of one of his speech in the Yes on Prop 8 advertisement could work as Dean

Scream for Newsom.

Steve Poizner

Biography

Born on January 4, 1957 in Houston, TX, Poizner attended the University of Texas, from

which he graduated in 1978 earning a BA in Electrical Engineering. He decided to pursue a

MBA at Stanford University, which he successfully finished in 1980. In 1983, he founded

Strategic Mapping Inc., a software company specialized in digital maps for the purpose of

information analyses, which he sold in 1995 for $35 million. He then founded SnapTrack Inc.,

which specialized in GPS tracking technology, which he sold in 2000 for $1 billion. In the

same year, he started to volunteer as a teacher at a San Jose high school, teaching American

Government to 12th graders. From his experiences there, he co-founded EdVoiceand

educational nonprofit which promotes conversation between students, teachers, parents and

state officials on important educational issues.viii He co-founded the California Charter

Schools Association, whose number of schools have doubled due to Poizners involvement.ix

Poizner made an unsuccessful bid for California State Assembly representing the 21st district,

which he lost by a 3.2% differenceremarkable since its a Democratic district, but with a


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Marius Verhage6especially during this economic turmoil, people should not be asked to pay more for their

home insurance.xi

Strengths/weaknesses

Although Poizner was elected to a statewide political position, his weakness is that this

position is fairly focused on one item, insurances. Although his policies are far stretching, and

definitely encompass more than insurance rates (for example his environmentalist efforts with

the pay-as-you-drive insurance), he has not yet have to deal with all the aspects which will

come up during a possible term of governor.

That said, his biography is closely linked to his issues, which is especially the case with

all the efforts he made for education and education reform by creating organizations and

nonprofits. His year as a high school teacher gives him first hand, opposed to second hand

experience in K-12 education.

He continues being a key speaker at several Republican fundraisers statewide, causing

criticism that he is also the Insurance Commissioner up until 2010, and should pay more

attention to that job than to run for Governor.

Poizner, however, has shown to be very willing to pay for a large part of his campaign

himself, which makes it easier to not accept money from those parties that would reflect badly

upon the candidate, and makes it easier to run a campaign that differs from the bases of the

Republican party. However, due to his moderate social views, he might not be able to

persuade the Republican saints to vote for him.

Mirror opposites

Newsoms public divorce, alcohol problem and philandering puts him at a disadvantage in

regards to Poizner, who did not have, or suffers from, such public discussions of his personal

life. Poizner, however, lacks the name recognition that Newsom has, and will have to make up

for this.


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Marius Verhage8Voter History

Polling/issues

In the latest Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey, conducted after the

November 4th Presidential Election, shows that not only the race for the presidency, but also

the state ballots received a fair amount of public attention, most prominently Proposition 8. xii

Because of protests following the passing of this proposition, combined with local as well as

national and international attention, this is one of the issues that is still very important for both

sides of the aisle.

It furthermore shows Californians have a pessimistic economic outlook, with 75% stating

that Californias economic outlook is bad. This is mostly connected to the most important

issues voters cite, which is jobs and the economy (with 59%) followed by the state budget,

deficit, and taxes (with 13%). They generally do not trust their elected officials to come up

with measures that will address the issues above, with 63% stating that they have not so

much or no [confidence] at all in them making public policy.

Voting History

With only two statewide elected Republican officialsGovenor Arnold Schwarzenegger and

State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, our opponentand supporting every

democratic presidential nominee after the first George H.W. Bush presidency, California is

regarded as a Democratic stronghold. The two Republican politicians winning statewide

positions, however, shows that there is definitely room in the middle for a (socially) moderate

Republican to win, especially due to the large and growing number of people of declare

themselves DTSs.

Geograpic Support

(A visual representation of the following can be found in Attachment nr 1)

Counties


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Marius Verhage9After analyzing six electionsthree presidential elections (2000, 2004 and 2008) along with

three gubernatorial elections (2002, 2003 and 2006)the general conclusion is that

geographic saints can be found in only 4 countiesMarin County, Alameda County, San

Francisco County and San Mateo Countylocated on the coastal region of the state, while the

Californian inlands comprises twenty-four counties which were sinners in those elections.

While the number of the latter is larger, these counties are also the least populated ones of the

state. Furthermore, the saints do not include those counties who voted for Governor

Schwarzenegger in his 2006 reelection, which for most of these counties (for example

Sonoma County, Napa County and Santa Cruz County) was the only time that they voted for a

Republican rather than for a Democrat. Several factors (name recognition, approval ratings,

and moderate Republican policies) could have attributed to this outcome. Together with those

counties who voted for a Republican twice in the six elections, there are fourteen most

persuadable salvageable counties, which are located along the coast or California, above and

beneath San Francisco. Most notable county in this group is that of Los Angeles County, a

densely populated area with potentially a lot of voters, if the candidate would be able to

persuade them to vote for him. Less persuadable salvageable counties are those who only

voted Democratic in two or three out of the six elections, and are composed of Santa Barbara

County, Sacramento County, Alpine County and Mono County. For twelve counties the last

presidential election was the first time to vote for Democratic candidate in these six elections,

and while this might be contributed to a lot of factors, it at least shows that there is a

reasonable amount of voters who, under the right circumstances, are willing to vote

Democratic. These counties are mostly located on the border area between easily persuadable

salvageable counties, and those which counties are regarded as sinners.

DMA


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Marius Verhage10DMA wise, the saints in California are located in the San Francisco-Oak-San Jose media

market, along with some of the most persuadable salvegeables. Sinners, on the other hand, are

located in the Fresno-Visalia, the Chico-Reding, and Medford-Klamath Falls DMAs. In these

markets almost every county voted Republican in every election, with some minor exceptions

for one or two counties who voted for Barack Obama in the last presidential election. The

Monterey-Salinas, the Yuma-El Centro comprises of 3 counties that voted four or five times

out of the six elections for a Democrat, and is therefore a persuadable DMA. The San Diego

DMAonly covering San Diego Countyis one that only voted Democratic in the last

presidential election, and is therefore not a very persuadable salvageable media market. While

these DMAs are more or less clearly divided amongst party lines, many of Californias DMAs

are a combination of sinners and salvageables (more or less persuadable ones) and are

therefore hard to target. This is especially the case with the Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto

and the Los Angeles media market. While some of the counties covered by these two media

markets are voting for a Democratic candidate in almost all elections, other counties are fierce

sinners and vote Republican. This is also the case for the Eureka, the Santa Barbara-San Mar-

San Luis Obispo and the Reno DMA. Especially the last DMA is interesting, although

technically not a California DMA, since two of the counties covered by this media market

Alpine County and Mono Countyare the only two in the interior who voted two or three

times in the six elections for a Democratic candidate.

Since Gavin Newsom, personally and in the public eye, is closely related to Proposition 8,

it is worthwhile to also look at the geographic support in that race with our recognized saints,

sinners and salvageables map. A map showing the results of this election can be found in

Attachment nr 2, along with a map of the 2006 State Insurance Commissioner election which

was won by our opponent, included as Attachment nr 3.

Demographic Support


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Marius Verhage12elections. On the basis of their votes, the youngest group has grown to undeniable saints, with

also voting for the Democratic nominee in the three other elections. While the 30-44 group

steadily increased their margin in favor of a Democratic candidate, while voting for

Schwarzenegger in 06, this was not the case for the 45-64 age group, which decreased their

margin in the 2004 presidential election from 17% in 2000 to 5% in 2004. They are, however,

still saints since the margin increased again in the 2008 elections. The oldest group (65+),

however, have shown to be regarded as salvageable, by voting for John McCain in the last

elections with a 2% margin, as well as for the Republican incumbent for governor in 2006

with 25 percentage point difference.

Exit polls based on race/ethnicity shows that Whites are a declining part of the total

amount of voters in presidential elections, going from 73% in 2000, to 65% in 2004, and 63%

in 2008. Those who were indentified as Black, however, comprised a growing part of the

voters, starting at 5% in 2000 to 10% in 2008. The Hispanic/Latino vote too, shows an

increase which is even bigger, going from 13% in 2000 to 18% in 2008. The Asian vote

fluctuates from composing 5% of the total amount of votes 2000, to 9% in 2004 and 6% in

2008. This is not the case in the other three elections. On the basis of on whom they cast their

vote, only White and Asian voters can be regarded salvageables, with Whites voting

Republican in the two Bush elections and onlyvoting for Obama in 2008 with a small margin,

and Asians as the only minority group voting for Schwarzenegger in 06. African-Americans

and Latinos are saints, which is also especially the case for Non-White Women.

Amount of education only made a significant difference in the 2004 elections, with voters

who did not graduate from college voting for Kerry with a 1% margin, while those who had a

college degree or more voted for Kerry with almost a 20% margin. The latter can be regarded

as Democratic leaning salvageables, almost always supporting the Democratic nominee with a

large margin. Since annual family income was differently polled in the 2008 elections polls,


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Marius Verhage14An indicator, only polled at three local elections, was in which kind of environment the

voter lived. Voters from big cities are saints for the Democratic cause, voting for their

nominee in all three elections. Smaller cities and suburbs voted for Schwarzenegger, and are

therefore salvageable, while small towns and rural areas (the latter only polled once due to too

little participants) are sinners.

With the special character of Proposition 8, it is worthwhile to also take a look at those

demographics (included as Attachment nr 6). Most remarkable fact from this polling data is

the difference in voting by the younger age group, with only 39% voting Yes on this

proposition. Furthermore, the African-American voters supported the Yes side in larger

proportions than any other ethnicity. Those with a college degree, and those making less than

$30.000 and more than $150.00 supported the No side, while other voted Yes, although all

with very small differences.

Message Targeting

Campaign Message

Gavin Newsom for Governor of California

Campaign Rational: I am running forGovernor to bring the future back to the Golden State

Campaign Theme: Bringing the future back to California

Issues:

21st century Economy: Instead of relying on old institutions that threaten to leave if they do

not get the tax reduction they demand, California needs to become more accommodative to

new high tech businesses and green corporate headquarters. These, and not the old

institutions, hold the future of our economy, and by focusing on areas in which our state has

always been the bestbeing green and focused on progresswe will make our state the main

attraction for businesses that will bring high quality jobs as well as capital to California.


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Marius Verhage15Education: The future of our state lies in the hands of those who are now part of our

educational system, and although California is home to some of the best universities in the

world, our public schools lack behind. As the mayor of San Francisco, I created and expanded

programs as Preschool For All and Afterschool For All, which remarkably increased the level

of education for those students involved. It is those kinds of pragmatic measures, together

with increases in teachers wages, which will change our educational system to one that fits

the future of our state.

Equality: We will not be able to create the future of our state if not every Californian is able to

be fully part of this future. I will continue our fight for an equal opportunity for everybody,

whether this opportunity is marriage equality, or equal access to health care by providing a

universal health care system. We can not take the next step forward together, if we do not

make sure that no one is lacking behind. This is what I have fought for while I was mayor,

and this is the fight we will continue in California.

This message will show the voters the best that our candidate has to offer, without turning

away from issues that are important to our candidate. With the Californian budget crisis and

(inter)national economic crisis, voters have lost faith in the future of the state, as previously

shown by polls. With Newsoms ability to point to those things he has changed while he was

Mayormost importantly bringing new businesses to the cityhe has the ability to bring this

future to the state as well. Newsom, being an entrepreneur himself, knows what businesses

need, and he has the history of always running on a moderate business friendly agenda. While

Steve Poizner proposes a similar issue in his campaign, Newsom has the experience of

actually being able to change regulatory practices and creating a business friendly

environment, and succeeded in doing so for San Francisco. With the economy and jobs

ranking high on the polls, bringing new businesses, jobs, and capital to the state, and therefore

collecting additional tax money could also help the state recover from the budget.


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Marius Verhage16Education has been a big issue in California for a long time, and although Poizner does

have his first hand experience in being a high school teacher (although only for a year), and

having created several organizations to change K-12 education, it was always from the

sideline, not from within the system itself. Newsoms plans for Pre- and Afterschool have

created sound results, and although Newsom should not propose to make preschool obligatory

for every child by law (since such a Proposition was voted upon and failed a couple of years

ago), he could make the case to make it available to every child.

Equality, carefully described to include all kinds of equality, is a major issue for Gavin

Newsom. With Proposition 8 passed, and possible backlash from the use of one of his

speeches in the Yes on 8 campaign, Newsom should be careful to focus on marriage equality

alone. However, the votes on this single issue have been shifting between Proposition 22 and

Proposition 8, and it is also an important issue with a large part of his saints. Especially this

part of the message should be shifted in focus depending where and to whom the total

message is delivered.

Message for key demographic groups

African-Americans: Key demographic group for Gavin Newsoms campaign will be the

African-American vote. While consistently voting Democratic, they were shown to hold

different beliefs on Proposition 8. Since it will be impossible to win without his saints, Gavin

Newsom should adapt his message in a way that would fit the African-American community.

Instead of talking about same-sex marriage in a civil rights sense, he should acknowledge the

differences of opinion on this issue, but include his position in his overall fight for equality for

everybody. Especially his efforts for universal health care for all Californians can be decribed

as preaching to the choir, and by doing so, Newsom should be able to persuade African

American to turn out and vote, rather than staying at home. Since same-sex marriage is one of

the only issues which could resonate wrong with this specific demographic group, it would be


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Marius Verhage17best to deliver this message to that group as early as possible. Once they are persuaded, the

African-Americans would be a valuable supporter of Newsoms campaign. This message

should therefore be a combination of a persuasion as well as a base motivational message.

Moderates: A different emphasis is needed for the moderate voters in the state. Their

objection does not lie in Newsoms support for same-sex marriage, since they, too, objected to

Proposition 8 as can be seen in the exit poll data, but they are more focused on his economic

policies. Special emphasis should be placed on Newsoms business friendly approach, aka the

first issue, which he has held from the beginning of his career as a politician. He will be able

to connect to economically more conservative voters by focusing on his own entrepreneurial

experience, and show what he has done in San Francisco in order to attract a new kind of

business which, when applied to the state, will create a more sound economic position which

will prepare it for the future. During the recent financial crisis Newsom has shown to not be

afraid to take harsh measures in order to cut the budget and make it sound, while also

stimulating the economy by increasing minimum wages, and therefore the peoples ability to

consume from local businesses.

Targeted geographic message

The Los Angeles DMA: As can be seen from the rough numbers in Attachment nr 7, Los

Angeles county, a Democratic leaning county, is a huge factor in getting all the votes needed

to win the 2010 Gubernatorial elections. While the county supported the Democratic

candidate for State Insurance Commissioner in 2006 rather than Steve Poizner, the county has

voted Republican in the past, for example for Governor. With a high percentage of African-

Americansalmost double that of the state average with 11.2%as well as the fact that the

county voted in favor of Proposition 8, shows that a well emphasized message might benefit

Gavin Newsom in several areas.xiv The message itself should specifically focus on LA county,

and not so much on the counties also covered by this media market since they are mostly


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Marius Verhage18sinners or not easily persuaded salvegeables. Although too much emphasis should not be put

on the fact that Newsom has been mayor of San Francisco, his work in an urban environment,

the fact that he knows the problems faced by its inhabitants should be the emphasis of his LA

message. Within Newsoms issue on equality there is some room to include his programs on

the homeless issue, an urban problem in general. Furthermore, Newsoms measures to make

San Francisco carbon neutral, and therefore, reduce some of the unpleasant side effects from

living in a big city, could also be fitted into his message for a 21st century Economy, while at

the same time stressing the job creation made possible by green businesses, which will not

only be high level research jobs, but also low level entry jobs, which could resonate with

recent immigrants who are usually dependent on these jobs in order to make ends meet. Since

urban communities, as the exit polls show, tend to favor Democratic candidates, this message

could be a base motivational message, only adapted to a not 100% saint environment. With

less references to San Francisco, and geared more towards general urban problems and

solutions , Gavin Newsoms message will be able to fit a Los Angeles audience.

Message delivery

Announcement event

While Antonio Villaraigosa was a fierce opponent during the Democratic primary, which was

a tight race, he has decided to endorse his fellow mayor, Gavin Newsom, for his bid in the

Gubernatorial race. While, as was shown during the primary, they have their differences,

Villaraigosa has decided that it would be better to let his supporters know that he thinks that

Gavin Newsom will do a much better job than Republican Steve Poizner. Newsom, on the

other hand, has offered Villaraigoso a chair position in a newly created commission composed

of all mayors of the large cities in the state, which will advise Newsom as Governor on all

issues, but primarily, due to the historic scope of the ongoing state and national economic


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Marius Verhage19crisis, on policies that will help these cities to further attract new businesses and capital in

order to get trough the economic downturn.

This endorsement will be held on the steps of the Los Angeles City Hall in order to

emphasize the fact that it is the mayor of one city who will endorse the mayor of another city.

This, with a backdrop of average Los Angeles citizens to that endorsement, will also make it

appear as if it is rge city that supports Gavin Newsom as well. The flag of California, as well

as the one from Los Angeles and the United states should be visible in the background, and

Villaraigosa endorsement speech should take place behind a lecture with the Los Angeles seal

on it.

In his speech, Villaraigosa will emphasize the need to work together, across differences,

especially in these economic harsh times, in order to get through this and work towards the

future of the state. Newsom will thank Villaraigosa for his willingness to serve as chair on the

new committee, and they will both be available for questions afterwards. In order to get as

much media attention as possible, the event is scheduled at 10.30 on a Wednesday morning.

Paid media/advertising message

Broadcast

A 30 second general add to address the issue of the 21st century economy. This add, narrated

by Newsom himself, will start with black and white images of old factory buildings and

empty industrial sites. While Newsom narrates his message of how California should not

focus on old institutions for its wealth and prosperity, moving images of bioscience and green

businesses will be appear on screen, with young scientists (age 28-45) working in labs.

Newsom be shown himself, walking on the shores of the bay, with the Golden Gate Bridge in

the backdrop. He will explain how he brought new businesses to San Francisco, and how he

will do the same to the State of California.

Mail/e-mail


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Marius Verhage20A regular mail and an e-mail messages will be sent to all college students in California asking

them to join the fight for the future of their California, including a link which will give them a

free iTunes song if they join the Californian Students for the Future group on Facebook.

This will involve young people into the campaign, by grace of a free song, but will also

receive regular updates of new movies on YouTube, which, if they want, can appear their

Facebook account. This way more and more people will be able to hear about Newsoms

campaign, and since these students are the ones with time and motivation, they will be able to

support some parts of his campaign.

Mechanism to reach targeted voter groups

- Online media adds/applications: With the help of several of the new businesses in SanFrancisco, as well as the already established bond between Gavin Newsom and YouTube,

Newsom will be best to accentuate the future part of his campaign message by making

most use out of the internet. Furthermore, this will create a strong emotional connection

with saints that will help him as supporters, namely younger people who, by majority,

support his social policies, and who are the ones affected by the new jobs created by

attracting new green businesses. His already established presence on Facebook, and his

State of the City address on YouTube, show that this kind of campaign is a priority for our

candidate.

- Tv adds: In the beginning these adds will primarily run in the San Francisco DMA, inorder to motivate Gavin Newsoms saints. When the campaign is up and running, and the

Bay Area saints are motivated and some of the Democratic leaning salvegeables

persuaded, the media buy should focus on the Los Angeles DMA where more persuasive

adds and comparative adds should be shown. In this area some special focus could be paid

by buying slots on channels designated for ethnic minorities to get persuade these usual

saints to vote for a candidate who also fights for their equality.


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Marius Verhage22Summary

Benchmark

The 2006 Gubernatorial Elections was won by the Republican candidate for several reasons,

which will play be little to no role during the 2010 elections. First of all, Schwarzenegger was

the incumbent for this office, making him statistically more likely to win the elections due to a

number of factors. Furthermore, Schwarzenegger still held considerable face and name

recognition, which non of the Democratic candidates were able to pull, since they, as polls

showed, had little face recognition. On top of that was the major shift of policy emphasis as

well as direction of Schwarzenegger, who increasingly vocally favored measures he

previously opposed, and which changed him from a Republican moderate into a center of

even center-leftist politician. By doing so, he prevented his opponents from passing him on

the left, and with no major opposition from the right, he was able to hold on to his seat.

Since this race will be one without incumbent, and Republican candidates usually are not

as middle of the road as Schwarzenegger proved, since their constituencies are far more

conservative, the 2010 race will be more accommodative for a moderate Democrat as Gavin

Newsom.

Targeted areas of improvement

First of all, were Angelides was not known or recognized by the voters, this will not likely be

any problem with Gavin Newsom. His involvements have granted him much local as well as

national attention, and this will hopefully work in his favor.

Being the Mayor of San Francisco gives him the advantage of being close to his saints, and

while he is regarded by some as being too much of a Republican, even those voters will likely

vote for a candidate that is closer to them then the Republican opponent. Although there are

currently some debates on his role in the No on Proposition 8 movementsome suggests that

it has only harmed the movement, rather than helpedhis dedication to the issue of equality


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Marius Verhage23will help him create a vast base of supporters, as is shown by the Fight H8 demonstrations,

and persuade them to spent time and effort in someone who would support their issue.

Being the Mayor of a city that is despised by inland conservative counties, might create a

fierce opposition from socially conservative Republicans. Although this might seem like a

blow in the face, it might actually work out in Newsoms benefit. Due to the strong

conservative base, our opponent, Steve Poizner, will either have to give in to some of their

demands, which will make him lose the support of the large an growing group of moderates in

the state, or, alternatively if he decides not to give in, will make him lose the support and

dedication from his Republican base. Either way, this might prevent him from getting the

needed support and votes to win the election. Newsom, however, should not be carried away

by this, and should stay on track of his positions in order not to scare away Democratic saints

as the African-American community, which will be crucial to win the Los Angeles County

elections.

Salvageable voters will be persuaded to vote for Gavin Newsom by his moderate economic

policies, as well as his pragmatic approach he has shown while being Mayor of San Francisco.

His record, as well as his ideas for the future, will provide solid reason for fiscally

conservative, but socially progressive moderates to support Newsom for Governor.

Message/issues necessary to accomplish improvement

Angelides was unknown, and therefore did not ever expanded his window of opportunity to

get his message through. Newsom did already establish a connection with voters, and while

this might not always be a positive one, he has a positive yet realistic message for the future

of the state. This overall positive approach is needed in times when voters are worried about

the direction of the state, as well as disenfranchised with the people they have elected to

govern.


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Attachment nr 1


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Attachment nr 2


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Attachment nr 3


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California Governor and Senatorial Elections 2004, 2006 and 2006

Exit Polls

2004 2006

Total Boxer Jones Feinstein Mountjoy

100% 58 38 100% 59 3

Gender

Men 48% 53 44 49% 55 3

Women 52% 65 34 51% 63 3

Age

18-29 21% 64 33 14% 65 2

30-44 28% 58 40 22% 59 3

45-59 27% 59 38 35% 58 3

60+ 24% 55 43 29% 58 3

Age

18-64 84% 60 38 81% 60 3

65+ 16% 57 40 19% 59 3

Race/Ethnicity

White 66% 51 47 67% 53 4

African-American 6% 86 14 4% 87 1

Latino 21% 73 23 19% 71 2

Asian 4% 76 24 6% 70 2

Race and Gender

White men 32% 43 54 33% 49 4

White women 34% 58 41 34% 57 3

Attachment nr 4


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Non-White men 17% 73 24 16% 66 2

Non-White women 18% 77 21 17% 78 1

Education

Not a college graduate 54% 55 43 49% 59 3

College degree or more 46% 62 35 51% 60 3

Annual family Income

Under $15.000 8% 70 26 6% 75 1

$15.000 to $30.000 13% 69 28 11% 66 2

$30.000 to $50.00 19% 61 35 1% 64 2

$50.000 to $75.000 23% 55 42 20% 51 4

$75.000 to $100.000 15% 56 43 17% 58 3

$100.000 to $150.000 14% 60 40 18% 59 3

$150.000 to $200.000 5% 49 50 6% 57 3$200.000 or more 4% 39 58 8% 60 3

Union member

Yes 17% 62 35 18% 65 3

No 83% 57 41 82% 58 3

Voting Status

First-time voter 12% 70 27 11% 59 4

Voted before 88% 57 41 89% 54 4

Political Ideology

Liberal 26% 93 6 25% 87

Moderate 46% 64 33 45% 69 2

Conservative 28% 21 78 30% 22 7


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Party Affiliation

Democrats 40% 92 6 41% 94

Independents 27% 64 31 25% 63 2

Republicans 33% 15 83 35% 16 7

Religion

Protestant 44% 46 53

Catholic 29% 67 29

Jewish 4% 79 20

None 15% 68 30

Size of Community

Big Cities 25% 75 23 19% 72 2

Smaller Cities 24% 56 42 24% 59 3Suburbs 40% 57 41 49% 56 3

Small Towns 7% 42 55 6% 46 5

Rural 5% 42 56 2% #

Size of Community

Urban 47% 66 32 43% 65 2

Suburban 40% 57 41 49% 56 3

Rural 13% 43 54 8% 52 4


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California Presidential Elections 2000, 2004, and 2008

Exit Polls

2000 2004 20

Total Gore Bush Kerry Bush

100% 54 42 55 44

Gender

Men 47% 49 46 48% 53 45 4

Women 53% 57 39 52% 58 42 5

Age

18-29 15% 55 40 20% 61 38 2

30-44 33% 50 46 29% 54 44 2

45-64 39% 56 39 39% 52 47 3

65+ 13% 53 44 12% 57 42

Race/Ethnicity

White 73% 47 49 65% 47 52 6

Black 5% 85 14 7% 84 14

Hispanic/Latino 13% 75 23 14% 68 31

Asian 5% 63 33 9% 64 35

Education

Not a college graduate 46% 52 44 43% 50 49 5

College degree or more 54% 54 42 57% 59 40 4

Annual family Income

Less than $20.000 9% 63 33 8% 66 32

$20.000 to $39.999 18% 51 45 15% 59 40

Attachment nr 5


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Attachment nr 6

Proposition 8

Exit Polls

2008

Yes NoTotal 100% 52 47

Gender

Men 46% 53 47

Women 54% 54 48

Vote by Age

18-29 20% 39 61

30-44 28% 55 45

45-64 36% 54 46

65+ 15% 61 39

Race/Etnicity

White 63% 49 51

African-American 10% 70 30

Latino 18% 53 47

Asian 6% 49 51

Race andGender

White men 31% 51 49

White women 32% 47 53

Black men 4% # #

Black women 5% 75 46

Latino Men 8% 54 46

Latino women 11% 52 48

Education

Not a college graduate 50% 58 42College degree or more 50% 47 53

Annual familyIncome

Under $15.000 5% 46 54

$15.000 to $30.000 10% 48 52

$30.000 to $50.00 15% 54 46

$50.000 to $75.000 19% 54 46

$75.000 to $100.000 17% 50 50

$100.000 to $150.000 17% 54 46$150.000 to $200.000 7% 47 53

$200.000 or more 9% 45 55


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Voting Status

First-time voter 14% 38 62

Voted before 86% 56 44

PoliticalIdeology

Liberal 26% 22 78

Moderate 44% 47 53

Conservative 30% 85 15

Party Affiliation

Democrats 42% 36 64

Independents 29% 82 18

Republicans 28% 4 54


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Attachment nr 7

Votes from Saints and Democratic leaning Salvageable counties to win 2010 Gubernatorial

Election

Based on 2008 Presidential Election

Voters in California = 13.197.173

52% victory = 6.862.529

Saints: Marin = 109.320

Alameda = 489.106

San Mateo = 222.767

San Francisco = 311.714

Total = 1.132.907

Democratic

leaning

Salvageables: Humboldt = 30.807

Mendocino = 27.843

Lake = 11.986

Sonoma = 144.399

Napa = 38.849

Yolo = 53.488

Solano = 98.775Contra Costa = 297.353

Santa Clara = 460.128

Santa Cruz = 78,495

Monterey = 84.545

San Benito = 11.917

Los Angeles = 2.247.352

Imperial = 17.791

Total = 3.603.728

Total Saints + Democratic leaning Salvegeables

= 4.736.635 (69% of needed votes,

35,9% of total vote)

From the rest of the votes (8.460.538) only 16.1% has to vote for the candidate in order for him to win

with 52% of the votes.

Documents

Gavin Newsom for the Future of California