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GAS PATHWAYS TO 2050 AND THE INTERPLAY WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY
John Williams, Senior Principal, Pöyry Management Consulting
Committee on Sustainable Energy- 26 September 2019
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OUR RECENT DISCUSSION PAPER EXAMINED PATHWAYS TO 2050
2
Key features of the study
• Two pathways to decarbonisation
• ‘Zero Carbon Hydrogen’
• ‘All-electric’
• Major modelling development project
• Examines 3 main sectors of power, heat and transport
• Comparison between the 2 pathways to achieve 100%
decarbonisation of the energy sector
• Concluded that there are key advantages to including
hydrogen in the energy mix …..
• …… And natural gas has a key role to play
https://www.poyry.com/sites/default/files/zukunft_erdgas_key_to_deep_decarbonisation_0.pdf
SEPTEMBER 26 2019COMMITTEE ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
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WHY HYDROGEN CAN BE ONE OF THE KEY LEVERS FOR DECARBONIZATION?
3
Hydrogen can
contribute to
decarbonizing the
energy sector as well as
some industry sectors
- Industrial and residential heat can be decarbonised
- Carbon free storage to improve integration of RES and
provide flexibility
- Transportable by shipping / pipe / truck
- Reliable alternative where direct electrification is not
feasible esp. in some transport sectors
- Feedstock to help decarbonize carbon intensive
industries
- Allows existing gas infrastructure to be utilised
SEPTEMBER 26 2019COMMITTEE ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
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WHAT ROLE DOES HYDROGEN PLAY IN THE ‘ZERO CARBON HYDROGEN’ PATHWAY?
4SEPTEMBER 26 2019
COMMITTEE ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Heat Transport
Power Total hydrogen demand
Mill
ion v
ehic
les
Hydro
gen d
em
and (
TW
h)
Non-process heat Process heat Light transport Heavy transport
2 624
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CAN ELECTROLYSIS PROVIDE THE HYDROGEN THAT WE NEED?
SEPTEMBER 26 2019COMMITTEE ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY 5
No flexible EVs Flexible EVs
▪ Flexible demand side can
match available supply
▪ Low priced electricity
periods/curtailment and
volatility significantly reduced
The Impact of demand side response affects the economics of electrolysis
Relying only on electrolysis could limit the role of hydrogen
Renewables needed for
electricity demand
Additional solar required for
electrolysis
Additional wind required for
electrolysis
Zero Carbon Hydrogen Pathway
▪ Dedicated renewables to meet electrolysis demand
requires more wind and solar deployment than electricity
demand
▪ Scale is the real challenge for electrolysis
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A HYDROGEN ECONOMY IS ACHIEVABLE ….
SEPTEMBER 26 2019COMMITTEE ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY 6
Hydrogen demand Hydrogen production
….. But, moving to a hydrogen economy will require all technologies to play a role
Natural gas can enable the hydrogen economy to reach the scale required
Contact: [email protected] +44 7970 572 450
Consulting. Engineering. Projects. Operations.
www.poyry.com
