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www.lawiq.com
LawIQHarnessing Analytics For Energy Infrastructure
660 Pennsylvania Ave., SEWashington, DC 20003
Gas Infrastructure Trends and Impacts Downstream
American Gas AssociationFRC Committee
October 27, 2017
Our Discussion
1) Pipeline Regulatory Trends
2) Case Study: Marcellus / Utica Takeaway Capacity
3) Shipper and Project Sponsor Trends
Industry Silos Engineering/Environmental
Financial/CorporateRegulatory/Legal
Actionable analyticsfrom regulatory activity for gas pipeline & end user decision makers.
Project modeling
Contract & Rate Analytics
Search, track, analyze !!
Competitive and FERC alerting
• Plan better• Negotiate stronger• Operate confidently
Machine Learning - Data Inputs
We incorporate hundreds of discreet features (inputs) that update our dynamic forecasts.Our modeling automatically adjusts weighting and calculations of data as they’re ingested.
StakeholderEntities
Energy CompaniesProject Developer, MLP, Construction
Contractor
Anchor ShippersE&P, Utilities, Local
Distribution Co’s, Marketers
Federal / State Regulators
FERC, State Agencies, ACE, Historic Pres.
ProtestorsNational Environmental,
Native Tribes, Law Firms
ProjectAttributes
Regulatory FilingsData Requests, Agency cooperation, Developer
supplements
Company FilingsEnvironmental studies, Asset financials, tree
clearingProject
CharacteristicsTotal Costs, Pipe
Diameter, Compression
Protestor ImpactLegal actions,
Regulator appeals, volume and timing
Data Sources
Federal AgencyData requests,
comments
Legal DocketsAppeals, rehearings
State AgenciesApproval times
OtherCommercial terms,
seasonality
Trends in Pipeline Permitting –Lasting Longer with More Uncertainty
FERC Certificate Trends
For Pre-filed projects, the trend in time to obtain a certificate has accelerated since 2012.For non Pre-filed projects that trend didn’t emerge until 2015.
~ 250 days
~ 500 days
FERC Certificate Duration
Obtaining a FERC certificate is taking from about 40% longer.
Includes Greenfield and Facility/Laterals
Company versus Actual Dates
There is a large variation between the date requested and the actual FERC certificate date.Many projects have received FERC certificates before the date requested (early).
Pinpointing the Delays -Environmental, Protesters,
FERC Date Request
Issuing the Certificate
Project slippage occurs after completion of environmental review.Since 2013 there is a greater uncertainty in the time between EA/FEIS and certificate.
Protestor Involvement
Among similar projects, big disparities exist regarding the number of entities and issues.
Volume of Data Requests
FERC has issued a greater number of data requests before issuing the EA/FEIS.Not only for complex, greenfield projects, but also more routine pipeline expansions.
Case Study: Marcellus / Utica Takeaway
M/U Takeaway
Public sentiment stems from owner-company public comments.How often do they reflect practical events in project development?
Project VolumeGarden State Exp Phase 1 20,000
2017 Expansion 61,000Birdsboro Pipeline Project 79,000
New Market 112,000New York Bay Expansion 115,000
CPV Valley Lateral Project 130,000Atlantic Bridge 133,000Orion Pipeline 135,000
Susquehanna West Project 145,000Leidy South 155,000
Garden State Exp Phase 2 160,000Triad Expansion 180,000
Broad Run Expansion 200,000Eastern System Upgrade 200,000
Virginia Southside II 250,000Northeast Supply Enhancement 400,000
PennEast Pipeline 1,075,000Leach XPress 1,500,000
Atlantic Coast Pipeline 1,500,000Atlantic Sunrise 1,700,000
Mountain Valley Pipeline 2,000,000Nexus 2,000,000
Mountaineer Xpress 2,700,000Rover 3,250,000
24projects
8projects(>1B)
Forecasting Capacity and Supply
Delays are hitting all projects. Magnitude of delay are project-specific and regional in nature.
Project VolumeGarden State Exp Phase 1 20,000
2017 Expansion 61,000Birdsboro Pipeline Project 79,000
New Market 112,000New York Bay Expansion 115,000
CPV Valley Lateral Project 130,000Atlantic Bridge 133,000Orion Pipeline 135,000
Susquehanna West Project 145,000Leidy South 155,000
Garden State Exp Phase 2 160,000Triad Expansion 180,000
Broad Run Expansion 200,000Eastern System Upgrade 200,000
Virginia Southside II 250,000Northeast Supply Enhancement 400,000
PennEast Pipeline 1,075,000Leach XPress 1,500,000
Atlantic Coast Pipeline 1,500,000Atlantic Sunrise 1,700,000
Mountain Valley Pipeline 2,000,000Nexus 2,000,000
Mountaineer Xpress 2,700,000Rover 3,250,000
LeachRover
AS
NEXUSACP
PennEastMXPMVP
How long to 10B?
Cumulative delays may mean significant constraints for M/U takeaway capacity.Extent of delay relies on confidence in regulatory progress (federal & state).
6monthdelay
12 monthdelay
18 monthdelay
Shipper Trends
Shifting Markets
Regional trends may be part basin-driven and part market-driven.
76% 50% 40% 41%
83%
24% 50% 60% 59%
17%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Precedent Agreement Shippers% of Total Contracted Firm Capacity
EndUser/Downstream' Producer/Upstream
Supply to Demand
Market developments and pricing have adjusted appetite for those considering commitments to new projects.
