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To: InterestedParties
From: TheParksideGroup,LLC
Date: September30,2013
Re: 2013CasinoGamingReferendum
AttherequestofmembersoftheNYJobsNowcoalition,TheParksideGroupconducteda
polltosurveyattitudesoflikelyvotersinthe2013GeneralElection.Keyfindingsofthissurvey
include:
Voterssupportthegamingreferendum
.Whenexposedtoinformationaboutthereferendumon
thisyearsballot,includingthestatedlegislativepurposesofpromotingjobgrowth,increasing
schoolaid,andpermittinglocalgovernmentstoreducepropertytaxes,amajorityofvoterssupport
passage,bya16-pointmargin(51%Yes/35%No).
ReferendumSupport Total Suburbs NYC Upstate
Yes 51% 58% 52% 45%
No 35% 28% 31% 44%
Undecided 13% 14% 16% 11%
Refused 1% 1% 1% 0%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100%
Theroadtosuccess.Awell-funded,well-executedcampaignshouldprevailandpropelthe
referendumtopassageonNovember5th
.
Thesurveyshowsroomforgrowthinthefiveboroughs,wheresupportfromaverypopular
GovernorandDemocraticnomineeforMayor,alongwiththeactiveparticipationoflaborunions,
cantransformremainingundecidedvotersintosupportersofthereferendum.
ResidentsoftheNewYorkCitysuburbsarethemostconsistentsupportersofthe
referendum,which,asnotedbelow,haveanumberofcompetitiveracesthisyearandwhere
turnoutshouldberelativelyhigh.Holdingsupportforthereferenduminthesuburbsis,therefore,a
keystrategicimperativeforthecampaign.
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Whilesupportforthereferendumisnotasstronginupstatecounties,themessaging
aroundjobcreationandpropertytaxreliefresonatesstronglywithvotersinthisregion.
GovernorAndrewCuomoenjoysstrongsupport
.GovernorAndrewCuomosstatewidefavorability
ispositivebya2-1marginandhehasapositivejobapprovalrating.1
Statewide,hispersonalpopularityis66%favorable/32%unfavorable.Asnotedinthechart
below,heenjoysbroadsupportineveryregionofthestateandisexceptionallypopularinNew
YorkCity.
CuomoFavorability Total Suburbs NYC Upstate
TotalFavorable 66% 67% 78% 53%
TotalUnfavorable 32% 30% 19% 46%
Don'tKnow/Refused 3% 2% 3% 2%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100%
TheGovernorsjobapprovalratingstatewideis55%positive/44%negative.InNewYork
Cityanditssurroundingareas,theGovernorisevenstronger.Hisjobapprovalisratedmost
favorablyinNewYorkCity(68%positive)andonLongIsland(63%positive).Withmajorracesthis
yearforNewYorkCityMayor,NassauCountyExecutive,WestchesterCountyExecutive,Orange
CountyExecutive,andRocklandCountyExecutive,theGovernorspopularitywithinthesehigh-
turnoutcountieswillbeimportanttopassageofthereferendum.
BilldeBlasioiswell-knownandwell-likedinNewYorkCity.Amonglikely2013Generalelection
votersintheCityofNewYork,BilldeBlasioisknownby90%ofrespondents.Hisfavorableratingis
69%,whichdwarfshis21%unfavorablerating.Becauseofhisstrongpersonalpopularity,and
recentpublicpollingshowinghimwithacommandingleadintheraceforMayor,hisendorsement
ofthereferendumspassageshouldbenefitproponentsinNovember.
Anoteaboutmethodology.
ThepollwasconductedSeptember20-23,2013among1,000likely
GeneralElectionvoters.Atthe95%confidencelevel,themarginoferrorinthesurveyis3.1%.The
marginoferrorishigheramongsub-groups.Thissurveywasdrawnfromasampleofvoterswitha
historyofvotinginodd-yearelections.Inaddition,screeningquestionswereemployedtoidentify
thosevotersinthesamplemostlikelytovotethisNovember.
1
Thesefindingsreflecta2013likelyvoterelectorate.Sinceodd-yearelectoratestendtobeolderandless
diverse,theytypicallyaretougherenvironmentsforDemocratsthaneven-yearelectorates.Accordingly,itis
reasonabletoconcludethatapollof2014likelyvoterswouldyieldevenstrongersupportfortheGovernor.
