G4 Workplan Presentation 2 June 2011

8/6/2019 G4 Workplan Presentation 2 June 2011

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Challenge Program on Water and Food

Ganges Basin Development ChallengeGanges Basin Development Challenge

Ganges Basin Development Challenge Increasing the

Resilience of Agricultural and Aquaculture systems inthe Coastal Areas of the Ganges Delta



Study AreaStudy Area



List of key external drivers (e.g., land-use change, change in water useand water management practices, climate change impacts, urbanization,

industrialization, change in trans-boundary flow, demographic

change/change in economic development, change in water governance,

shift in political economy of water, change in water/coastal zone policies

and so on)

Resource availability weekly and seasonal

Inundation depth-duration map for polders 3, 30 and 43/2F

Water storage volume inside polders 3, 30 and 43/2F

Sedimentation in peripheral rivers of polders 3, 30 and 43/2F Storm surge risk map (present and future)

Integrate all outputs to develop a water management plan

Main Outputs:Main Outputs:

Water demand assessment

Future scenarios



Methodology:Methodology:

Wide Range of

External Drivers

List of key

External Drivers to be

considered for

the study

Workshop for

Finalizing

External Drivers

Priority

Ranking

Analysis of drivers and

future projections by

socio-economic &

water engineering

researches of G4

Climate Change

Models

(GCMs & RCMs),

available literature

WEAP & SWAT

Models

Future Scenarios (changed climate conditions,

Change in upstream water inflow,

downstream water level, rainfall, populationgrowth, water use and land-use)

Experts,

G1, G2, G3,

G4, G5,

Stakeholders

GD TWG

Workshop for Finalizing Scenarios



Methodology (Cont..)Methodology (Cont..)

Update, calibration andUpdate, calibration and

validation of Southwest Regionalvalidation of Southwest Regional

Model (MIKE 11), SWAT ModelModel (MIKE 11), SWAT Model

Primary

Survey Data

Secondary

Data

Salin

ity

M

odelWater Flowmodel

Salinity Zoning Map

(present & futurecondition)

Simulation of

Baseline Condition

Simulation of

Future Conditions

Resource availability and

water demand assessment

Inundation depth-

duration map




Update, calibrationUpdate, calibration

and validation of threeand validation of three

dedicated models of polderdedicated models of polder

3, 30 & 43/2F3, 30 & 43/2F

PrimarySurvey Data

Secondary

Data

Morphologic modelWater Flow model

Simulation of Baseline

ConditionSimulation of Future

Condition

Water storage volume

inside polders

Sedimentation Pattern

in peripheral rivers



Plan for improvement

of Water Management

system


Update, calibrationUpdate, calibration

and validation Bay of Bengaland validation Bay of Bengal

Storm Surge ModelStorm Surge Model

(MIKE 21)(MIKE 21)

PrimarySurvey Data

Secondary

Data

Simulation of Baseline

Condition

Simulation of Future

Condition

Storm surge

risk map

Storm-surgemodel

SalinityZoning Map

(present & future

condition)

Inundation depth-

duration map

(present & future

condition)

Water storage

volume inside

polders (present &

future condition)

Resource availability

(present & futurecondition)



Timeline of Major Activities:Timeline of Major Activities:

No. Activity/ Milestone 2011 2012 2013 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

0Project Implementation (reports & reflection

workshops)

1Field visits, interaction meetings, data collection,

literature review, identif ication of external drivers,

G4 workshops and trainings

2Climate change model

sand project

ion

s,

scenar

iodevelopment considering key external drivers

3Assessment of cross-boundary flow, effect of landuse

change and population growth (using SWAT & WEAP

models)

4Simulation of existing condition & scenarios for

assessment of anticipated changes on waterresources in the coastal part of Ganges basin (water

resources availability, salinity and storm surge risk

assessment)

5Simulation of scenarios and assessment of

anticipated changes for the polders 3, 30 & 43/2F

(Assessment of drainage congestion & flooding,

salinity, sedimentation of peripheral rivers, waterstorage volume, devising a water management plan )



No. Activity 2011 2012

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

0 Project Implementation0.1 Sites selected, partners engaged0.2 Project progress reports1 Field visits, interaction meetings, data collection, literature review, driver identif ication,

workshops and trainings

1.1 Review of the existing model studies, literature, available data

1.2Identification of external drivers and their ranking1.3 Workshop for finalizing the external drivers

1.5 Field visits1.6 IInteraction meetings (G1, G2, G3, G5 and other stakeholders1.4 Collection of available data and field survey2 Climate change models and projections

2.1 Selection of suitable climate change models

2.2 Development, calibration and validation of RCMs for baseline condition2.3 Simulating climate change scenarios4 Simulation of existing condition

4.1 Selection of suitable models for assessment of flooding, drainage congestion,

water availability, salinity and storm surge4.2 Analysis of climate and cross-boundary flow data for model setup (present

and future condition)

4.3 Calibration &validation of GBM basin, SWRM and BoB model

Timeline of Activities:Timeline of Activities: YearYear--0101



Users

G1 & G3

G1, G2 & G3

G1, G2 & G3

Key external drivers

Flood inundation depth-

duration map

Water storage volume

inside polders

Sedimentation in

peripheral rivers

Storm surge risk map

Plan for improvement

of khal system, sluices &

embankments

G4 OutputsNeeds

G1, G2, G3, G5:

Feedbacks/Ranking,

stakeholders,TWG

G1: DEM

G2&G3: Water

requirement

G3: Requirement of

local communities &

farmers

G1: Land-use map

G1, G2 &G3

Local farmers, fishermen, WMOs,

BWDB, LGED, DAE, DM

B, DO

E &NGOs,MoWR,MoEF, MoA, C.C. Cell

G5Coordination

G5Coordination

& facilitation

Resource availabilityG2: Crop planning &

water requirementG1, G2 & G3

Salinity zoning mapG1&G2: salinity levels G1, G2 & G3

G3

G5

Main Linkages and Needs



6/9/2011

Salinity IntrusionSalinity Intrusion

U p p

e r M e g h n

a R i

v e r

C h a n d n a R

i v e r N a b a g a n g a R

K u m a r R iv e r

G o r a

i R i v e r

J a m u n a R i v e r

P a d

m a R i v e r

G a n g e s R iv e r

5 ppt.(sixties)

1 ppt.(sixties)

5 ppt.(present)

1 ppt.(present)



High Risk Area for Storm Surge Inundation

Inundation

depth

High risk Area (ha)

Base condition

( 1960-2009)

Climate Change

(2030)

% Increase

>=1 meter 2087607 2376362 14

>3 meter 1016298 1719275 69



Inundation Depth Duration Map

Polder 30



Thank YouThank You

Documents

G4 Workplan Presentation 2 June 2011