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G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
1
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Thinking and Communicating with Diagrams
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
2
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Simple Causal-Loop Diagrams
Citizeninvolvement in
planning
Perception thatcitizens are powerlessand disenfranchised
Willingness of citizensto become involved
-+
-
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
3
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
CLD without Polarities
Visitors peryear
Crowding Naturalarea
Contact areaDamageper visitor
Incidenceof
damageEnvironmental
damage
Damagedensity Regeneration
time
Disappearanceof damage
R
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
4
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
CLD without Polarities
Averagecommuting time
Averagecommutingdistance
Averagecommuting speed
Tolerablecommuting time
Pressure for more andwider high speed roads
Lane-miles of highspeed roads
Attractivenessof outlying areas
Population inoutlying areas
Number ofcommuters
Net migration tooutlying areas
Highwayconstruction
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
5
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Adding Loop Names Helps Greatly
Averagecommuting time
Average commutingdistance
Averagecommuting speed
Tolerablecommuting time
Pressure for moreand wider highspeed roads
Lane-miles of highspeed roads
Attractiveness ofoutlying areas
Population inoutlying areas
Number ofcommuters
Net migrationto outlying
areasHighwayconstruction(B1) Highway
expansion
(B3) Commutingvolume
(B2) Commutingdistance
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
6
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
CLD with Stocks
Workforce
Net hiring
Progress rate
Cumulative realprogress
Tasks perceivedremaining
Effortperceivedremaining
Indicated worforce
Gross productivity
Initial project definition
Time remaining
Time perceived required
Indicated completion date
Scheduledcompletion date
Net additions toschedule
<wcwf>
Undiscoveredrework
Cumulativepreceivedprogress
Fraction satisfactory
Cumulative effort
Perceived productivity
Workforce sought
Willingness tochange
workforceFraction
perceivedcomplete
<Workforce sought>
Detection ofundiscovered
rework
Time to detect rework
<tdrw>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
7
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- ++
+
Tobacco taxes++
+
-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+<Perceived importance
of other healthprograms>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
xxx
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
8
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Standard Vensim Diagram(History: “Hybrid” diagram in Richardson and Pugh)
New personnel Experiencedpersonnel
AssimilationrateHiring rate Experienced
leave rate
Time tobecome
experienced
Frac expleaving p year
Total personnel
Target growthrate
Fraction experienced
Mentoring time neededMentoring time available
Mentoring timeneeded per New Mentoring time
available per Exp
Adequacy ofmentoring
Perceived timeto become Exp
Pressure for mentoring
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
9
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Standard Diagram with Loop Names, Friendly Font, and Color
InventoryProducing Shipping
Demand
Productioncapacity
Inventorycoverage
Fraction of orders
shipped
Planned growth incapacity
Capacity inconstruction
Buildingcapacity
Capacityordering
Capacity
acquisition delay
Deliverydelay
Delivery delay
perceived by themarket
Phantomordering
Availability loop
Price and capacityadjustment loop
Phantomordering loops
+-
Ordering
Price
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
10
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Standard Diagram Showing the Limit of Complexity/Readability in One Diagram
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
11
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Sector Diagram:Note Labels on Links
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
12
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Policy Structure Diagrams(Morecroft)
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
13
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Policy Structure Diagrams
(What’s the famous model?
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
14
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Lessons
• Readability (audience!)• Naming loops• Omitting unnecessary detail• Unfolding complex pictures• Communication!
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
15
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
A Conceptual Map of the Tobacco Control System
Unfolding a Tobacco Map for Health Professionals
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
16
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- ++
+
Tobacco taxes++
+
-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+<Perceived importance
of other healthprograms>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
xxx
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
17
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Tobacco marketingactivities
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
+
+
+
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
18
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Tobacco marketingactivities
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
+
+
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
++
-
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
19
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
+
+
+
-
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
+
+
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
++
-
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
++
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
20
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
+
+
+
-
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
++
+
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
21
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
+
+
+
-
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
22
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
+
+
+
-
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobaccotaxes
+
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
++
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
23
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov.income
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Taxrevenues
fromsmokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobaccotaxes
++
+
-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
24
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov.income
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Taxrevenues
fromsmokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobaccotaxes
++
+
-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
25
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov.income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Taxrevenues
fromsmokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobaccotaxes
++
+
-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+ <Perceived importance ofother health programs>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
26
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
People quittingsmoking
-
People startingsmoking
+
A Stock and its Flows
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
27
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking+
+
-
+
Reinforcing Loops
Four views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
28
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
+
+
-
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
-
+
Reinforcing Loops
Four views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
29
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Tobacco marketingactivities
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
+
+
+
+
-
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
-
+
Reinforcing Loops
Four views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
30
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
People quittingsmoking
-
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
++
+
Balancing orCounteracting Loops
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
31
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Gov. income
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
++
+
+
Balancing orCounteracting Loops
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
32
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
++
+
+
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
+
Balancing orCounteracting Loops
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
33
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++
Anti-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
34
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++
+
+
Anti-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
35
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Smoking as asocial norm
Tobacco revenues+
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
+ +
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
Pro-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
36
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Tobacco marketingactivities
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
+
+
+
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
++ +
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
-
+
Pro-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
37
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Tobacco marketingactivities
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
+
+
+
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
++ +
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
Pro-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
38
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
+
Government Awareness of Health Risks
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
39
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
+
Government Awareness of Health Risks
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
40
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
+
+
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
+
+
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
Government Awareness of Health Risks
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
41
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
Funding for tobaccohealth research
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- ++
Tobacco taxes++
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
Anti-tobaccolegislation
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
Government Willingness to Act Against Tobacco
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
42
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Smoking as asocial norm
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
++
+
Anti-tobaccolegislation
Accumulations in the Tobacco System
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
43
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- ++
+
Tobacco taxes++
+
-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+<Perceived importance
of other healthprograms>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
xxx
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
44
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
+
+
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- ++
+
Tobacco taxes++
+
-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+<Perceived importance
of other healthprograms>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
xxx
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
45
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
A “Shard” of a Tobacco Model
Unfolding an Aging Chain of Smokers
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
46
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
47
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen yearsadult years
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
48
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen yearsadult years
teen birth rateadult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
49
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen yearsadult years
teen birth rateadult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
teens notsmoking
<Teens>fraction of teensinitiated per year
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
50
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen yearsadult years
teen birth rateadult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
teens notsmoking
<Teens>fraction of teensinitiated per year
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
51
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen yearsadult years
teen birth rateadult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
children notsmoking teens not
smoking
adults notsmoking
elderly notsmoking
<Children>
<Teens> <Adults> <Elderly>
fraction of childreninitiated p yr
fraction of teensinitiated per year
fraction of adultsinitiatied per year
fraction of elderlyinitiated per year
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 2006
52
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen yearsadult years
elderly yearsteen birth rate
adult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
children notsmoking teens not
smoking
adults notsmoking
elderly notsmoking
<Children>
<Teens> <Adults> <Elderly>
fraction of childreninitiated p yr
fraction of teensinitiated per year
fraction of adultsinitiatied per year
fraction of elderlyinitiated per year
adult death rate
Adult smokersdying
adult smokingdeath multiplier
elderly smokingdeath multplier
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
<adult deathrate>
<elderly years>