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GEOFÍSICA INTERNACIONAL (2011) 502: 211225
Resumen
Inferimos un posible efecto sismomagnético precursor al terremoto (Mw 7.2) del 4 de abril de 2010, cuyo epicentro fue localizado en las estribaciones de las sierras El Mayor y Cucapah en el NE de Baja California, México, el cual ha sido denominado El MayorCucapah. Los datos utilizados corresponden a mediciones de la magnitud del campo magnético total registrados en una base magnética ubicada temporalmente en !"#"$%&'"#('!#'()*+)%#('#,)'-+)".#('#!"#/)'00"#('!#CICESE, en Ensenada, Baja California, México, 1# '-# !%.# %2.'03"&%0)%.# 4"5-6&)+%.# ('# /7+.%-8#Arizona, y Fresno, California, en los EEUU. Estos datos fueron registrados con una taza de muestreo de un minuto del 26 de marzo al 19 de abril de 2010. La comparación de estos ("&%.# 9'04)&):# 3'0)*+"0# ;7'#(70"-&'# '!# 9'0)%(%#de medición las tres estaciones registraron variaciones similares del campo geomagnético.<7'.&0%# "-=!).).# .'# 2"."# '-# !"# ('*-)+):-# 1#90%97'.&"#('#7-"#4'()("#'.&"(>.&)+"#;7'#?'4%.#denominado índice de variación magnética. Este índice, calculado a partir de los datos de una sola estación, nos ha permitido contrastar las variaciones del campo magnético en días previos y posteriores al terremoto, utilizando de forma independiente los datos de las tres '.&"+)%-'.#4"5-6&)+".8# @"+)!)&"-(%# !"# 2A.;7'("#de posibles precursores. A partir de los datos del campo magnético analizados, podemos sugerir ;7'#'!#>-()+'#('#3"0)"+):-#4"5-6&)+"#-%.#9'04)&'#)('-&)*+"0# 7-# 9%.)2!'# '3'-&%# .).4%4"5-6&)+%#;7'#)-)+)"#BC#4)-7&%.#"-&'.#('!#&'00'4%&%#1#&)'-'#una duración de 3 horas, así como la variación anómala del campo magnético causada por una &%04'-&"#4"5-6&)+"#;7'#)-)+):#'!#(>"#D#('#"20)!E
Palabras clave: índice de variación magnética, efecto sismomagnético, terremoto El MayorCucapah, Baja California, México.
Abstract
We describe a possible seismomagnetic pre+70.%0# &%# &?'# FG# HEI# '"0&?;7"J'# %@# K90)!# B8#2010, with epicenter nearby the sierras El Mayor and Cucapah in NE Baja California, México, (El F"1%0L,7+"9"?#'"0&?;7"J'ME#N'#7.'(#&%&"!L*'!(#magnetic intensity data recorded on a temporal magnetic base station on the roof of the Earth Sciences Division of CICESE, in Ensenada, Baja California, México, and magnetic observatories "&#/7+.%-8#K0)$%-"8#"-(#O0'.-%8#,"!)@%0-)"8#PQKE#/?'.'#("&"#G'0'#0'+%0('(#"&#"#."49!)-5#0"&'#%@#one minute from March 26 and until April 19, 2010. A comparison of these data let us verify that during the measurement period the three stations recorded similar variations of the 5'%4"5-'&)+#*'!(EOur analysis is based upon a statistical measure that we call index of magnetic variation, which "!!%G.# 7.# &%# ('&'+&# "-(# ;7"-&)@1# "-%4"!%7.#3"0)"&)%-.#%@# &?'#4"5-'&)+# *'!(# @0%4#("&"#%@# "#.)-5!'# .&"&)%-E# R".'(# 79%-# &?'# 4"5-'&)+# *'!(#data, we suggest that the proposed index %@# 4"5-'&)+# 3"0)"&)%-# )('-&)*'.# "# 9%..)2!'#seismomagnetic event, which begins 40 minutes 2'@%0'#&?'#'"0&?;7"J'#"-(#?".#(70"&)%-#%@#"2%7 hours, as well as anomalous behavior of the 5'%4"5-'&)+# *'!(# +"7.'(# 21# "# 5'%4"5-'&)+#.&%04#2'5)--)-5#%-#K90)!#DE
Key words: index of magnetic variation, seismo4"5-'&)+#'@@'+&8#S!#F"1%0L,7+"9"?#'"0&?;7"J'8#Baja California, México.
211
A possible seismomagnetic precursor of the El MayorCucapah earthquake (Mw 7.2) of April 4, 2010, Baja California, México
Emilia FregosoBecerra and Juan GarcíaAbdeslem
T'+')3'(U#K757.&#IV8#ICWCX#"++'9&'(U#Y"-7"01#ID8#ICWWX#972!).?'(#%-#!)-'U#F"0+?#IZ8#ICWW#
E. FregosoBecerraUniversidad de GuadalajaraCentro Universitario de Ciencias Exactas e Ingenierías(CUCEI)Departamento de Ingeniería CivilBlvd. Marcelino García Barragán Núm. 1421'.;E#,"!$"("#[!>49)+"Guadalajara, Jalisco, México
ORIGINAL PAPER
J. GarcíaAbdeslem,'-&0%#('#\-3'.&)5"+):-#,)'-&>*+"#1#('#S(7+"+):-#Superior de Ensenada (CICESE)])3).):-#('#,)'-+)".#('#!"#/)'00"Departamento de Geofísica Aplicada,"00'&'0"#S-.'-"("L/)^7"-"#<A4E#VZW_Fraccionamiento Zona PlayitasEnsenada, Baja California, MéxicoCorresponding author: [email protected] [email protected]
E. FregosoBecerra and J. GarcíaAbdeslem
212 VOLUME 50 NUMBER 2
Introduction
As part of a series of procedures followed to ensure the reliability and long term performance %@# &G%# 0'+'-&!1# "+;7)0'(# `SF/F# &%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&%4'&'0.#aCECW#-/#0'.%!7&)%-#"-(#CEI#-/#absolute accuracy), these instruments were set up as basestation magnetometers and deployed at the roof of the Earth Sciences Division building of CICESE at Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico aO)570'# WME# /?).# .)&'# ).# !%+"&'(# "&# 5'%('&)+#+%%0()-"&'.# VWE_bHZº N, 116.6643º W, 47 m above sea level, where a previous survey (Luis Gradilla, personal communication) showed that the site selected to deploy the magnetometers ?".# !%G# ac#CED#4`M# .&"2!'#4"5-'&)+# )-(7+&)%-#effects from 60 Hz electric currents.
/?'.'#4"5-'&%4'&'0.8#.'9"0"&'(#W#4#"9"0&8#G'0'#&70-'(#%-#"&#W_UI_#!%+"!#&)4'#ad/M#%-#F"0+?#26, 2010, just before the eastern vacation period.
,%-&)-7%7.#0'+%0()-5#%@#&?'#5'%4"5-'&)+#*'!(#"&#a rate of 1 minute lasted until April 9, 2010, at WCUBZ#?#ad/ME#K#.'+%-(#9'0)%(#%@#4'".70'4'-&.#G".#.'O#&%#2'5)-#"&#ZUDI#?#ad/M#%-#K90)!#WV8#ICWC8#"-(#!".-&)!#K90)!#WZ8#ICWC#"&#WCUCb#d/E##ad/#e#P-)3'0."!#/)4'#L#H#?ME
K&#WDUBCUBW#d/#%-#K90)!#B8#ICWC8#&?'#S!#F"1%0L,7+"9"?#'"0&?;7"J'#%++700'(# )-# &?'#3)+)-)&1#%@#&?'#Q)'00"#,7+"9"?#"-(#Q)'00"#S!#F"1%0E#/?'#4")-#.?%+J#aFG#HEIM#G".#@%!!%G'(#21#4%0'#&?"-#&'-#&?%7."-(#"@&'0.?%+J.#().&0)27&'(#"!%-5#&?'#-%0&?#western side of Sierra Cucapah and towards the south western side of Mexicali Valley (Figure 1).
A generalized geologic map of the study "0'"# ).# .?%G-# )-# O)570'# WE# /?'# 5'%!%51# %@# &?'#sierras Juárez and Cucapah includes Paleozoic 4'&"4%09?)+# 0%+J.# )-&07('(# 21# ,0'&"+'%7.#granitoids that vary from coarsegrained biotite tonalite to leucocratic granodiorite (Gastil et
Figure 1.#Q+?'4"&)+#4"9#.?%G)-5#.70@"+'#5'%!%51#"-(#4")-#5'%!%5)+# .&07+&70'.# a\<S`\8#WZ_C"X# \<S`\8#WZ_C2X#GarcíaAbdeslem et al.8# ICCWM8# "-(# .').4)+)&1# aY"-7"01#W# &%# Y7!1#WD8#ICWCM# @0%4#,\,SQSLTSQ<[F#aF#f#VM#"-(#PQ`QL<S\,#+"&"!%5.E#/?'#.').4)+)&1#@0%4#,\,SQSLTSQ<[F#+"&"!%5#).#0'90'.'-&'(#7.)-5#+1"-#+)0+!'.E#/?'#.').4)+)&1#@0%4#PQ`QL<S\,#+"&"!%5#).#0'90'.'-&'(#7.)-5#1'!!%G#+)0+!'.#@0%4#Y"-7"01#W#&%#K90)!#B#2'@%0'#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8#0'(#+)0+!'.#"@&'0#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8#"-(#2!7'#+)0+!'.#"@&'0#&?'#&?)0(#!"05'.&#"@&'0.?%+JE#Q%!)(#.&"0.#.?%G#&?'#&?0''#largest seismic events and the numbers aside indicate its magnitude. Mayor faults are: Laguna Salada (LSF), Cañón Rojo (CRF), Cañada David Detachment (CDDF), Central (CF), Cucapah (CCF), Pescadores (PF) Imperial (IF), and Cerro Prieto (CPF). CPV is Cerro Prieto Volcano. Lithology: Cretaceous Granitoid, KGr, Paleozoic Metamorphic, PM, /'0&)"01#3%!+"-)+8#/Lg8#h7"&'0-"01#3%!+"-)+8#hLg8#<'%5'-'#Q'()4'-&.8#<LQ8#h7"&'0-"01#K!73)%-8#hLKE#/?'#)-.'&#.?%G.#
!%+"&)%-.#%@#4"5-'&)+#2".'#.&"&)%-#"&#S-.'-"("#"-(#4"5-'&)+#%2.'03"&%0)'.#"&#/7+.%-#"-(#O0'.-%E
GEOFÍSICA INTERNACIONAL
APRIL JUNE 2011 213
al., WZHDME# \-# &?'# Q)'00"# S!# F"1%08# 9!7&%-)+#0%+J.# 3"01# @0%4# &%-"!)&'# &%# 4%-$%50"-)&'# "-(#)-&07('# 4'&".'()4'-&"01# 0%+J.# ".# )00'57!"0#.?"9'(#.&%+J.#aR"0-"0(8#WZb_X#Q)'4#"-(#`".&)!8#WZZBME#F)%+'-'#3%!+"-)+#0%+J.#!%+"!!1#%3'0!)'#&?'#+01.&"!!)-'#2".'4'-&#"-(# )&.#'i9%.'(# &?)+J-'..#rarely exceeds a few tents of meters.
/?'# \49'0)"!#"-(#,'00%#j0)'&%# @"7!&.# aO)570'#1) are part of the San AndreasGulf of California .&0)J'L.!)9#@"7!&#.1.&'4#"-(#+%-.&)&7&'#&?'#j"+)*+L<%0&?#K4'0)+"#9!"&'#2%7-("01#)-#&?).#0'5)%-E#/?'#Laguna Salada fault, located over the western margin of Sierra Cucapah, is a highangle fault &?"&#.&0)J'.#-%0&?G'.&#"-(#?".#"-#%2!);7'#-%04"!Ldextral sense of shear that is considered part of &?'#Q"-#K-(0'".#.&0)J'L.!)9#@"7!&#.1.&'4#aF7!!'0#"-(#T%+JG'!!8#WZZWX#F7!!'0#"-(#T%+JG'!!8#WZZDME#/?'# ,"k:-# T%^%# @"7!'05'.# G)&?# &?'# d"57-"#Salada fault at almost right angles and becomes a prominent active normal fault (Figure 1) that acts as a releasing step of the Laguna Salada @"7!&#.1.&'4#aF7'!!'0#"-(#T%+JG'!!8#WZZWME#/?'#Cañada David detachment is a westdipping lowangle normal fault with a curvilinear trace that bounds the western margin of Sierra El Mayor (Siem and Gastil, 1994; Axen et al., 1999; Fletcher and Spelz, 2009).
/?'# S!# F"1%0L,7+"9"?# '"0&?;7"J'# %++700'(#"&# .?"!!%G# ('9&?# al# WC# J4M# "99"0'-&!1# "!%-5#the southeastern segment of the Laguna Salada fault that is concealed by sediments of the F'i)+"!)#g"!!'1E#/?).#).#&?'#!"05'.&#.').4)+#'3'-&#)-#&?'#0'5)%-#.)-+'#O'207"01#IV8#W_ZI8#G?'-#"-#'"0&?;7"J'#%@#"-#'.&)4"&'(#4"5-)&7('#FG#HEW#ruptured segments of Laguna Salada and Cañón T%^%#@"7!&.#aF7'!!'0#"-(#T%+JG'!!8#WZZDX#O!'&+?'0#and Spelz, 2009).
Figure 2 shows the temporal variation of seismicity obtained from NEIC catalogue, for the region shown in Figure 1, from January 1 &%#Y7!1#WD8#ICWCE#O%0#&?'#)-&'03"!#2'@%0'#K90)!#B8#the magnitude Mw varies mostly between 1 and 3 (Figure 2a); the maximum number of events 9'0#("1#aO)570'#I2M#).#"2%7&#WD8#"-(#?19%+'-&'0#('9&?#).#4%.&!1#G)&?)-#IC#J4#aO)570'#I+ME#K@&'0#&?'# S!# F"1%0L,7+"9"?# '"0&?;7"J'# &?'0'# ).# "#notable rise in magnitude and number of seismic events per day, yet the predominant hypocenter ('9&?# 0'4")-.# "&# "2%7&# IC# J4E# /?'#4"i)474#-742'0#%@#'3'-&.#9'0#("1#).#%2.'03'(#%-#K90)!#D#"-(#Y7-'#WDE
Considering the seismic moment, M0 e#HEI_iWC19# <L48# 0'9%0&'(# 21# &?'# 5!%2"!# ,F/#"5'-+)'.8#&?).#'"0&?;7"J'#0'90'.'-&.#&?'#!"05'.&#moment released in the region in more than 100 years. /?'# .').4)+# 4%4'-&# ).# &?'# .+"!"0#parameter of the point source of a double
couple and it is related to the rupture area, A, the average displacement, D, and the shear modulus, !,# 21# &?'# @%!!%G)-5# 0'!"&)%-.?)9# aKJ)8#1966).
M0#e#!DA . (1)
K..74)-5#"#.?'"0#4%(7!7.#@%0#50"-)&)+#0%+J.#of !"e# VEViWC10 N/m2 and an average slip of D e#W48#G'# '.&)4"&'# "# 079&70'# "0'"# %@# "2%7&#I8ICC# J42. Considering the spatial distribution %@#"@&'0.?%+J.#"-(#&?'#().&"-+'#2'&G''-#&?'#&G%#major seismic events that followed the large '"0&?;7"J'#aO)570'#WM8#G'#)-@'0#&?"&#&?'#!'-5&?#%@#&?'#079&70'#).#"2%7&#WIC#J4E#/?'0'@%0'8#@0%4#';7"&)%-# W# G'# '.&)4"&'# &?"&# &?'# 079&70'# "0'"#4"1#'i&'-(#(%G-#&%#"2%7&#W_#J4#@%0#"#3'0&)+"!#@"7!&8#%0#"2%7&#Wb#J4#@%0#"#@"7!&#G)&?#"#()9#"-5!'#of 60oE# /?).# 0%75?# '.&)4"&)%-# %@# &?'# &?)+J-'..#of the seismogenic zone is in good agreement G)&?#"#('9&?#'.&)4"&'#%@#Wb#m#I#J4#&%#&?'#2".'#of the crustal magnetic layer from spectral "-"!1.).# %@# 4"5-'&)+# "-%4"!)'.8# "-(# WZ# J4#from maximum hypocenter depths in this region (GarcíaAbdeslem et al., 2001), suggesting that &?).# '"0&?;7"J'# 20%J'# &?'#G?%!'# 20)&&!'# +07.&"!#layer zone.
Changes )-# &?'# +07.&"!# .&0'..# *'!(#"++%49"-1)-5# '"0&?;7"J'# "+&)3)&1# 4"1# induce crustal deformation as well as piezo remanent magnetization of the crustal magnetic layer. /?'0'@%0'8# ".# +?"-5'.# )-# 0'4"-'-+'# +"7.'#+?"-5'.# %@# &?'# S"0&?n.# 4"5-'&)+# *'!(8# 4any efforts have been made since historic times to relate temporal changes in the geomagnetic *'!(#&%#.').4)+#"+&)3)&18#)E'E8#&?'#.').4%4"5-'&)+#'@@'+&#aT)J)&"J'8#WZHbME
/?'# .'"0+?# @%0# 9%..)2!'# .').4%4"5-'&)+#90'+70.%0.# &%# !"05'# '"0&?;7"J'.# ?".# 2''-#conducted in tectonically active regions, such as southern California (Johnston et alE8# WZ_DX#Johnston et al., 1994; Johnston et al., 2006), in Central Italy (Mele et al., 1994; Di Mauro et al., ICCD), and Japan aQ".")# "-(# \.?)J"G"8# WZ_CX#Q".")#"-(#\.?)J"G"8#WZZHX#<).?)("#et al., 2004). In this search, an array of magnetometers is deployed for several years at carefully selected .)&'.# !%+"&'(# )-# 0'5)%-.# %@# !%G# 4"5-'&)+# *'!(#gradient, and across major geologic structures. However, as the main problem detecting seismomagnetic effects is their small amplitude with respect to diurnal variations of the geomagnetic *'!(# a)E'E8# Q&"+'18# WZbBX# Q".")8# WZZBX# Q".")8#ICCWM8# &?'#4"5-'&)+#*'!(#()@@'0'-+'#2'&G''-#"#magnetic station located close to an active fault and a reference station are analyzed (i.e., Sasai "-(#\.?)J"G"8#WZ_CX#F'!'#et al., 1994; Johnston et al., 1994; Nishida et al., 2004; Di Mauro et al., ICCDX#Johnston et al., 2006).
E. FregosoBecerra and J. GarcíaAbdeslem
214 VOLUME 50 NUMBER 2
A considerable research effort on the seismomagnetic phenomena is currently conducted 7.)-5#7!&0"#!%G#@0';7'-+1#aPdOM#'!'+&0%4"5-'&)+#signals (EMS) in tectonically active regions such as California (FraserSmith et al., 1990; Kappler et al., 2010), Japan (Ismaguilov et al., ICCWX# o%&."0'-J%# et alE8# ICCD"X# Q'0)&"# et al., ICCDX# p"1"J"G"# et alE8# ICC_M8# ,?)-"# aIda et al.8# ICC_M8 and Mexico (RamírezRojas et al., ICCBX# o%&."0'-J%# et al.8# ICCBX# o%&."0'-J%# et al.8#ICCD2X#T"4>0'$LT%^".#et al., 2007; RamírezRojas et al.8# ICC_ME# j"0&# %@# &?'# 90%2!'4#G?'-#using ULFEMS is to discriminate the part of &?'#.)5-"!#0'!"&'(#&%#&?'#'"0&?;7"J'#+1+!'8#@0%4#ionosphere signals and cultural noise. A variety of methods have been proposed: polarization analysis, involving measurements of the three magnetic components (Z, H and D) and its 0"&)%.# ap"1"J"G"# et al.8# WZZbX# o%&."0'-J%# et al.8#ICCBX#o%&."0'-J%#et al.8#ICCD"X#Ida et al., ICC_M8#@0"+&"!#"-"!1.).#%@#&?'#9%G'0#.9'+&074#%@#
the geomagnetic signals ap"1"J"G"#et al., 1999; RamírezRojas et al., 2004; RamírezRojas et al., 2007; RamírezRojas et al.8#ICC_X#o%&."0'-J%#et al.8# ICCBX# o%&."0'-J%# et al.8# ICCD"), spectral analysis of geomagnetic resonant structures and micropulsations ap"1"J"G"# et al.8# ICC_X#o%&."0'-J%# et al.8# ICCBX# o%&."0'-J%# et al., ICCD2X# o%&."0'-J%# et al.8# ICC_), and the principal component analysis, which is based in the calculus of eigenvalues from geomagnetic components registered at several stations (o%&."0'-J%#et al.8#ICCD").
\-#%70#+".'8#".#G'#?"3'#%-!1#%-'#&%&"!L*'!(#magnetic station, we analyze our data using a statistical measure that we have called index of magnetic variation (Imv), to search for a possible seismomagnetic effect related to the S!# F"1%0L,7+"9"?# '"0&?;7"J'. /?).# "-"!1.).#).# 90'.'-&'(# )-# &G%# .'+&)%-.E# \-# &?'# *0.&#section we show the consistency between the
Figure 2. Seismicity variables from NEIC catalog: (a) magnitude Mw, (b) number, and (c) depth of seismic events, @0%4#Y"-7"01#W#&%#Y7!1#WD8#ICWCE
GEOFÍSICA INTERNACIONAL
APRIL JUNE 2011 IWD
&%&"!L*'!(# 4"5-'&)+# 4'".70'4'-&.# 0'+%0('(#at magnetometers deployed at Ensenada, hereafter referred as EDAB1 and EDAB2, and their similarity with magnetograms recorded at 5'%4"5-'&)+# %2.'03"&%0)'.# !%+"&'(# "&# /7+.%-#a/P,M8# K0)$%-"8# "-(# O0'.-%# aOT<M8# ,"!)@%0-)"E#\-# &?'# .'+%-(# .'+&)%-#G'# ('*-'# "-(# .&"&'# &?'#assumptions behind the Imv, and use it to search for a possibly seismomagnetic effect related to &?'#S!#F"1%0L,7+"9"?#'"0&?;7"J'E#K&#&?'#+700'-&#state of our analysis, we suggest the possibility of having detected a seismomagnetic effect that .&"0&.#.%4'#BC#4)-7&'.#2'@%0'#&?'#'"0&?;7"J'8#while the large variations in the Imv, observed @0%4# &?'# ("1# "@&'0# &?'# '"0&?;7"J'# G'0'# (7'#&%# "# .&0%-5# .%!"0# G)-(# .?%+J# &?"&# +"7.'(# "#geomagnetic storm.
Reliability of magnetic data recorded at Ensenada
/?'#&%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#("&"#0'+%0('(#"&#S]KLR1 and EDAB2# "0'# .?%G-# )-# *570'.# V"# "-(# V+8#0'.9'+&)3'!1E# /?'0'# ).# "# +%-.&"-&# ()@@'0'-+'# )-#"49!)&7('#%@#"2%7&#VCC#-/#2'&G''-#&?'#0'+%0('(#data sets, which is attributed to local differences )-#27)!()-5#@0"4'G%0JE#Si+'9&#@%0#&?).#()@@'0'-+'8#&?'#*-'#3"0)"&)%-.#)-#&?'#%2.'03'(#5'%4"5-'&)+#*'!(#"0'#'..'-&)"!!1#&?'#."4'8#".#.?%G-#)-#*570'.#3b and 3d.
/%# '-.70'# &?'# 0'!)"2)!)&1# %@# &?'# &%&"!L*'!(#magnetic data recorded at Ensenada, we compare the data recorded at magnetometer EDAB2 with magnetograms recorded at magnetic
Figure 3.#/)4'#.'0)'.#%@#0"G#&%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#("&"#aF) collected in Ensenada at EDAB1 (a) and EDAB2 (c) base stations, from March 26 to April 19, 2010. Figures (b) and (d) show the data for selected days; highlighted in blue
+%!%0#"@&'0#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'E
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%2.'03"&%0)'.# /P,# "-(# OT<E# /?'.'# 4"5-'&)+#observatories (see its location in Figure 1) are 4'42'0.# %@# \</STFK`<S/8# "-# )-&'0-"&)%-"!#-'&G%0J# %@# 4"5-'&)+# %2.'03"&%0)'.# G?%.'# ("&"#are available on line (http://www.intermagnet.org). It is worth to mention that the distances 2'&G''-# S-.'-"("L/7+.%-# "-(# S-.'-"("LO0'.-%#"0'#"2%7&#DDC#"-(#bVD#J48#0'.9'+&)3'!18#G?'0'".#the distances between the epicenter zone and S-.'-"("8#/7+.%-#"-(#O0'.-%#"0'#"2%7&#WVD8#BWD#"-(#bBC#J48#0'.9'+&)3'!1E#K@&'0#0'4%3)-5#&?'#(")!1#"3'0"5'8#&?'.'#("&"#G'0'#.'O#)-#"#d/#2".).E#/?')0#comparison (Figure 4) shows that both the long and the short period variations of the geomagnetic *'!(# 0'+%0('(# "&# S-.'-"("# "0'# .)4)!"0# &%# &?%.'#0'+%0('(#"&#/P,#"-(#OT<#4"5-'&)+#%2.'03"&%0)'.8#and thus validate the long term performance of the GEM/F magnetometers.
The search for a seismomagnetic effect
/?'# 0"G# 4"5-'&)+# ("&"# 0'+%0('(# )-# S-.'-"("#by magnetometers EDAB1 and EDAB2, plotted %-#"#d/#(")!1#2".).#"0'#.?%G-#)-#*570'.#D#"-(#b8#0'.9'+&)3'!1E#/?'#("&"#0'+%0('(#2'@%0'#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8#".#.?%G-#)-#*570'.#D"#"-(#b"8#?"3'#"#0'57!"0#"-(#.&"2!'#(")!1#3"0)"&)%-E#/?'#.4"!!'.&#variations occur during night time, and a diurnal 4)-)474#).#%2.'03'(#0'57!"0!1#2'&G''-#_#&%#Wb#?E
K.#.?%G-#)-#*570'.#D2L+#"-(#b2L+8#&?'#&%&"!L*'!(# 4"5-'&)+# ("&"# 0'+%0('(# .)-+'# &?'# ("1# %@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'#.?%G#"#0'4"0J"2!'#+?"-5'#".# +%49"0'(# &%# 90'3)%7.# ("1.E# /?'# 4"5-'&)+#*'!(#).#9"0&)+7!"0!1#()@@'0'-&#&?'#("1#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8# ('-%&'(# 21# &?'# ("0JL2!7'# !)-'# )-#*570'.#D2#"-(#b2E#<%&'#&?"&#&?'#4"^%0#()@@'0'-+'.#
Figure 4.#])@@'0'-+'.#2'&G''-#&%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#)-&'-.)&1#aF) and its daily average (F), for different time intervals: a"M#@0%4#F"0+?#IH#&%#K90)!#B8#a2M#@0%4#K90)!#B#&%#K90)!#Z#"-(#a+M#@0%4#K90)!#WB#&%#K90)!#WZE#R!"+J#!)-'#+%00'.9%-(.#&%#
EDAB28#2!7'#!)-'#&%#OT<#"-(#0'(#!)-'#&%#/P,E
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%++70#2'&G''-#_#"-(#Wb#?E#\&# ).#"99"0'-&# @0%4#*570'.#D+#"-(#b+#&?"&#&?'#4"5-'&)+#*'!(#&'-(.#to recover the variation shown in days before the 4")-#'"0&?;7"J'E
/?'# 4"5-'&)+# ("&"# 0'+%0('(# "&# S-.'-"("#.?%G.#&?"&#!%+"!!18#&?'#5'%4"5-'&)+#*'!(#+?"-5'(#its normal variation since the day of the main '"0&?;7"J'8# .755'.&)-5# "# +"7."!# 0'!"&)%-.?)9#between the physical changes that lead to the seismic activity and changes in the geomagnetic *'!(E# /?'0'@%0'8# G)&?# &?'# 9709%.'# %@# 2'&&'0#describing the changes in the geomagnetic *'!(#(70)-5#&?'#&)4'#2'@%0'#"-(#"@&'0#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8#G'# 9'0@%04#2".)+# .&"&).&)+.# %-# &?'#&%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#("&"#&?"&#).#('.+0)2'(#-'i&E
We assume that the average of the magnetic *'!(8# F A, recorded during the days before &?'# 4")-# '"0&?;7"J'8# 0'90'.'-&.# &?'# ()70-"!#3"0)"&)%-# %@# &?'# 5'%4"5-'&)+# *'!(# (70)-5# "#4"5-'&)+"!!1# ;7)&'L("1E# \&#G".# +"!+7!"&'(#7.)-5#
the magnetic data recorded from March 27 to April 3 at Ensenada, and it was used as a 0'@'0'-+'#&%#;7"-&)&"&)3'!1#%7&!)-'#&?'#4"5-'&)+#*'!(# 3"0)"&)%-.# )-# "!!# %@# &?'# 0'+%0('(# ("&"8#according with the following statistical measure.
N Imv = 100 ! 1 "(Fi - Fi
A)2
(2) N i=1 (Fi
A)2
\-# ';7"&)%-# I8# Imv stands for index of 4"5-'&)+#3"0)"&)%-8#2')-5#&?'#0%%&L4'"-L.;7"0'#of the difference between the recorded magnetic *'!(8#Fi, and the assumed diurnal variation on a 4"5-'&)+"!!1#;7)&'#("18
F A. N is the number of
data used in the calculation.
/%# +%497&'# Imv# G'# .'!'+&'(# &?'# &%&"!L*'!(#magnetic data recorded at EDAB2 shown in O)570'# H"E# /?'# "..74'(# 4"5-'&)+"!!1# ;7)&'#diurnal variation computed from EDAB2 data, is shown in Figure 7b along with the magnetic
Figure 5.#/%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#)-&'-.)&1#aF) recorded at magnetometer EDAB1#2'@%0'#"-(#"@&'0#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'U#(a) from March 26 to April 3, (b) from April 4 to April 9 and (c) from April 13 to April 19.
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data recorded on April 4 to emphasize their ()@@'0'-+'.E#/?'#3"!7'.#%@#Imv shown in Figure 7c were calculated over 60 minutes segments (N#e#bCM#G)&?%7&#%3'0!"9E#/?).#+"!+7!"&)%-.#.?%G#&?"&#(70)-5#&?'#("1.#2'@%0'#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8#@0%4#March 27 to April 3, the Imv is of about 0.02%. O0%4#&?'#("1#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8#K90)!#B8#&?'#Imv starts to rise, reaching a maximum greater &?"-#CEWq#%-#K90)!#DE#p'0'"@&'0#&?'#Imv shows strong oscillations while decreases in amplitude "-(#)%'.#2"+J#&%# !%G#3"!7'.#%@#"2%7&#CECIq#on April 17.
Following the procedure outlined above, we 7.'#&%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#("&"#@0%4#OT<#"-(#/P,#%-#"#d/#2".).8#&%#+%497&'#&?'#Imv since March IH#7-&)!#K90)!#WZE#K.#.?%G-# )-#*570'.#_#"-(#Z8#G'# @%7-(#"# 0'4"0J"2!'# .)4)!"0)&1#G)&?# &?'# Imv calculated using EDAB2#("&"E#/?'0'@%0'8#"&#&?'#earlier stages of the analysis we suggested the proposed index of magnetic variation (Imv) as a good measurement of seismomagnetic effects
(GarcíaAbdeslem and FregosoBecerra, 2010; FregosoBecerra and GarcíaAbdeslem, 2010). p%G'3'08#&?"-J.#&%#&?'#.755'.&)%-#%@#&?'#0'3)'G'0.#G'# !%%J# "&# 5'%4"5-'&)+# *'!(# ().&702"-+'.#described by the Dst index. We downloaded the Dst index from Kioto geomagnetic center (fttp://G(+EJ75)EJ1%&%L7E"+E^9ME#/?'#].&#%0#().&702"-+'#storm time index, is a measure of geomagnetic activity used to assess the severity of magnetic stormsE#].&#).#'i90'..'(#)-#-/#"-(#)�'90'.'-&.#the average value of the horizontal component %@#&?'#S"0&?n.#4"5-'&)+#*'!(8#(70)-5#%-'#?%708#"&#@%70#-'"0L';7"&%0)"!#5'%4"5-'&)+#%2.'03"&%0)'.E#/%#%70#.7090).'#G'#@%7-(#&?"&#].&#)-()+"&'.#&?'#%-.'&#%@#"#4"5-'&)+#.&%04#2'5)--)-5#%-#K90)!#D8#"-(#G'#)-+!7('#)&#)-#O)570'.#H8#_#"-(#ZE
O70&?'04%0'8#"&#ZUWD#P/,#%-#K90)!#D8#&?'#Q%!"0#and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov) reported that a .&0%-5#.%!"0#G)-(#.?%+J#G".#%2.'03'(#"&#Q[p[#"&# HUDZ# P/,# G)&?# .%!"0# G)-(# .9''(# "2079&!1#
Figure 6.#/%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#)-&'-.)&1#aF) recorded at magnetometer EDAB2#2'@%0'#"-(#"@&'0#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'U#(a) from March 26 to April 3, (b) from April 4 to April 9 and (c) from April 13 to April 19.
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)-+0'".)-5# a@0%4# BDVLDV_# J4r.M# &%# -'"0# HCC#J4r.E# /?'#Q[p[# .9"+'+0"@%3'.# "0%7-(# &?'#Sun in step with the Earth, by slowly orbiting "0%7-(# &?'# *0.&# d"50"-5)"-# j%)-&# adWM8# G?'0'#&?'#+%42)-'(#50"3)&1#%@#&?'#S"0&?#"-(#Q7-#J''9#Q[p[# )-#"-#%02)&# !%+J'(# &%# &?'#S"0&?LQ7-# !)-'E#/?'# dW# 9%)-&# ).# "990%i)4"&'!1# WED# 4)!!)%-# J4#away from Earth (about four times the distance %@#&?'#F%%-ME#<'"0#_UVD#P/,#aCWUVD#d/M#%-#K90)!#D#"#5'%4"5-'&)+#.&%04#G".#)-#90%50'..E
With the aim of discard a global magnetic '3'-Z'3)%7.#&%#&?'#'"0&?;7"J'8#G'#"-"!1$'(#&%&"!L*'!(# 4"5-'&)+# ("&"# @0%4# \-&'04"5-'&#magnetic observatory VIC, located at Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, which is at about W8_HD#J4#"G"1#@0%4#&?'#'"0&?;7"J'#'9)+'-&'0E#
/?'#4"5-'&)+#*'!(#0'+%0('(#"&#g\,#aO)570'#WCM#presents a regular diurnal variation and remains .&"2!'# %-# .'3'0"!# ("1.# 2'@%0'# &?'# '"0&?;7"J'8#but shows a severe change caused by the 4"5-'&)+# .&%04# %@# K90)!# D8#G?'-# &?'#4"5-'&)+#*'!(# ('+0'".'.# (%G-# .%4'# LVCC# -/E# /?'# Imv 0'"+?'.# 79# &%# CEV_q# %-# K90)!# D8# (70)-5# &?'#sudden commence of the magnetic storm and CEW_q#(70)-5# )&.# +!)4"i# %-# K90)!# bE# /?'0'@%0'8#considering both Dst and the Imv calculated from VIC magnetic data, we discard so far the possibility of global magnetic event previous and (70)-5#&?'#S!#F"1%0L,7+"9"?#'"0&?;7"J'E
However, as the geomagnetic storm began "2%7&#WC#?#"@&'0#S!#F"1%0L,7+"9"?#'"0&?;7"J'8#and the Imv indicates a possible seismomagnetic
Figure 7.#a"M#/%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#)-&'-.)&1#aF) on base station EDAB2 from March 26 to April 9; highlighted in red +%!%0#"0'#&?'#*'!(#3"0)"&)%-.#.)-+'#&?'#&)4'#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'E#a2M#/?'#"..74'(#4"5-'&)+"!!1#;7)&'#("18#F A, is .?%G-#G)&?#2!"+J#!)-'#"!%-5#G)&?#&?'#4"5-'&)+#("&"#0'+%0('(#&?'#("1#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8#)-#0'(#+%!%0#!)-'E#/?'#Imv#3"!7'.#+"!+7!"&'(#7.)-5#';7"&)%-#aIM#@%0#"!!#%2.'03'(#("&"#).#.?%G-#)-#a+M8#G?'0'#&?'#0'(#"00%G#)-()+"&'.#&?'#%0)5)-#
&)4'#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'E#/?'#].&#)-('i8#)-#-/8#).#.?%G-#)-#a(ME
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event that begins some 40 minutes before &?'# '"0&?;7"J'8# G'# .'!'+&# &?'# 4"5-'&)+# ("&"#0'+%0('(# @0%4# K90)!# V# &%# K90)!# D# "&# S]KLR2, /P,8# "-(# OT<8# "-(# )-+0'".'# &?'# 0'.%!7&)%-# %@#our estimate computing the Imv at 20 minutes intervals (i.e., N# e# ICM# @%0# '"+?# ("&"# .'&E# /?'#computed Imv and the Dst index are shown in *570'.#WW"L28#0'.9'+&)3'!1E
[-#K90)!#V8#"#4"5-'&)+"!!1#;7)'&#("1#G)&?%7&#.)5-)*+"-&# .').4)+# "+&)3)&18# &?'# Imv varies erratically for the three magnetic data sets, with maximum values of about 0.03%. During this day there is only one simultaneous increase (i.e.,
on the three data sets) of the Imv at around IIUBC#?E#/?'#].&#)-('i#@%0#&?).#("1#).#.&"2!'#G)&?#4)-)474#3"!7'.#"0%7-(#LWC#-/E
R'5)--)-5# K90)!# B# "-(# 7-&)!# _UVC# ?# &?'# Imv 3"0)'.#@0%4#CECW#q#&%#"2%7&#CECIqE#O0%4#_UVC#&%#11:30 h the Imv shows a simultaneous increase that is grater in Ensenada (0.03%) and minimum in Fresno (0.02%), which is followed by an erratic 2'?"3)%0# @0%4# WWUVC# &%# WD# ?E# K&# "0%7-(# WD# ?#the Imv starts to rise and simultaneously reach CECVD#q#"&#&?'#&)4'#%@#&?'#'"0&?;7"J'#aWDUBC#?M8#reaching maximum values at 16:10 h. Hereafter the Imv starts to decline having values less than
Figure 8.#/%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#)-&'-.)&1#aF) on the FRN station is shown in (a) for a continuous period of time from F"0+?#IH#&%#K90)!#WZE#/?'#"3'0"5'#("1#a2!"+J#!)-'M#%2&")-'(#G)&?#&?'#90'3)%7.#("1.#&%#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'#).#.?%G-#)-#a2M#"-(#&?'#("1#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'#).#.79'0)49%.'(#)-#0'(#+%!%0E#/?'#Imv#3"!7'.#+"!+7!"&'(#7.)-5#';7"&)%-#aIM#@%0#"!!#%2.'03'(#("&"#"0'#.?%G-#)-#a+M8#G?'0'#&?'#0'(#"00%G#)-()+"&'.#&?'#%0)5)-#&)4'#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'E#/?'#].&#
)-('i8#)-#-/8#).#.?%G-#)-#a(ME
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CECWq#"&#WHUDC#?E#K-%&?'0#.)47!&"-'%7.#0).'#%@#the Imv is observed around 22:30 h. Notice in Figure 11b that on April 4 the Dst index is stable G)&?#4)-)474#3"!7'.#"0%7-(#LWD#-/#E
[-# K90)!# D# &?'# 3"0)"&)%-# %@# &?'# Imv is simultaneous on the three magnetic data sets but presents appreciably larger values in Ensenada. /?'#].&#)-('i#.755'.&.#"#.7(('-#+%44'-+'4'-&#%@#&?'#4"5-'&)+#.&%04#"0%7-(#CW#&%#CI#?#ad/M#)-#good agreement with SOHO forecast. Hereafter the Dst index continuously decreases down to LbC# -/8# )-()+"&)-5# &?'# 2'5)--)-5# %@# &?'# 4")-#phase of the geomagnetic storm.
Seems worth to emphasize that the proposed Imv is not a tool to forecast or predict an '"0&?;7"J'E#\&#).#"#.&"&).&)+"!#4'".70'#&?"&#?'!9.#to discriminate magnetic variations that may be related either with the seismic cycle or else with geomagnetic perturbations, from an assumed ;7)&'#"-(#!%+"!#()70-"!#3"0)"&)%-#%@#&?'#5'%4"5-'&)+#*'!(E# /?'# .'"0+?# @%0# "# .').4%4"5-'&)+# '@@'+�'!"&'(#&%#S!#F"1%0L,7+"9"?#'"0&?;7"J'8#2".'(#upon the Imv, suggests the possibility of having detected a seismomagnetic effect that lasted about 3 h, and a precursor event 40 minutes 2'@%0'#&?'#'"0&?;7"J'E
Figure 9.#/%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#)-&'-.)&1#aFM#%-#&?'#/P,#.&"&)%-#).#.?%G-#)-#a"M#@%0#"#+%-&)-7%7.#9'0)%(#%@#&)4'#@0%4#F"0+?#IH#&%#K90)!#WZE#/?'#"3'0"5'#("1#a2!"+J#!)-'M#%2&")-'(#G)&?#&?'#90'3)%7.#("1.#&%#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'#).#.?%G-#)-#a2M#"-(#&?'#("1#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'#).#.79'0)49%.'(#)-#0'(#+%!%0E#/?'#Imv#3"!7'.#+"!+7!"&'(#7.)-5#';7"&)%-#aIM#@%0#"!!#%2.'03'(#("&"#"0'#.?%G-#)-#a+M8#G?'0'#&?'#0'(#"00%G#)-()+"&'.#&?'#%0)5)-#&)4'#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'E#/?'#].&#
)-('i8#)-#-/8#).#.?%G-#)-#a(ME
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Figure 10.#/%&"!L*'!(#4"5-'&)+#)-&'-.)&1#aF) on the VIC station is shown in (a) for a continuous period of time from F"0+?#IH#&%#K90)!#WZE#/?'#"3'0"5'#("1#a2!"+J#!)-'M#%2&")-'(#G)&?#&?'#90'3)%7.#("1.#&%#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'#).#.?%G-#)-#a2M#"-(#&?'#("1#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'#).#.79'0)49%.'(#)-#0'(#+%!%0E#/?'#Imv#3"!7'.#+"!+7!"&'(#7.)-5#';7"&)%-#aIM#@%0#"!!#%2.'03'(#("&"#"0'#.?%G-#)-#a+M8#G?'0'#&?'#0'(#"00%G#)-()+"&'.#&?'#%0)5)-#&)4'#%@#&?'#4")-#'"0&?;7"J'E#/?'#].&#
)-('i8#)-#-/8#).#.?%G-#)-#a(ME
Figure 11. (a) Imv#@0%4#K90)!#V#&%#K90)!#DX#&?'#2!"+J#!)-'#+%00'.9%-(.#&%#S]KLR28#2!7'#!)-'#&%#OT<#"-(#0'(#!)-'#&%#/P,X#&?'#"00%G#%-#K90)!#B#)-()+"&'.#&?'#%0)5)-#&)4'#%@#S!#F"1%0L,7+"9"?#'"0&?;7"J'E#a2M#].&#)-('i#@0%4#K90)!#V#&%#K90)!#DE
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Conclusions
N'# "&&'49&# &%# *-(# "# .').4%4"5-'&)+# '@@'+&#+"7.'(#21#S!#F"1%0L,7+"9"?#'"0&?;7"J'8#7.)-5#&%&"!L*'!(# 4"5-'&)+# ("&"# 0'+%0('(# "&# "# .)-5!'#station far away from the epicenter zone. For this endeavor an assumption was made considering that the average of magnetic data on several .').4)+"!!1# ;7)&'# ("1.8# 90'3)%7.# &%# &?'# 4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8#0'90'.'-&.#&?'#()70-"!#3"0)"&)%-#%-#"#4"5-'&)+"!!1#;7)&'#("1E#N'#('*-'#"-(#90%9%.'#the index of magnetic variation (Imv); this statistical measure is robust in the presence of noise, and yields the percent change between &?'# %2.'03'(# 4"5-'&)+# *'!(# "-(# &?'# "..74'(#()70-"!#3"0)"&)%-#%-#4"5-'&)+"!!1#;7)&'#("1E#/?'#Imv calculated on magnetic data recorded at Ensenada, Baja California; Fresno, California, "-(# /7+.%-8# K0)$%-"8# "0'# 0'4"0J"2!'# .)4)!"08#and show a sensible increase the day after the 4")-#'"0&?;7"J'8#G?)+?#+'0&")-!1#).#+"7.'(#21#"#magnetic storm.
/?'#"2.'-+'#%@#.%!"0#G)-(#9'0&702"&)%-.#"-(#;7)'&# (")!1# 3"0)"&)%-# %@# &?'# 5'%4"5-'&)+# *'!(#%2.'03'(# .'3'0"!# ("1.# 2'@%0'# &?'# '"0&?;7"J'8#in contrast with the abrupt and simultaneous change of the Imv observed on April 4, some BC#4)-7&'.#2'@%0'#&?'#'"0&?;7"J'8#.755'.&.#&?'#possibility of having detected a precursor event. /?).#+%-+!7.)%-#).#.799%0&'(#21#&?'#"2.'-+'#%@#"#5!%2"!#4"5-'&)+#'3'-&#&?'#("1#%@#&?'#'"0&?;7"J'8#as inferred from the Imv calculated using VIC magnetic data and by the Dst index.
AcknowledgementS
N'#"+J-%G!'(5'#&?'#0'3)'G#"-(#+%44'-&.#%-#"-#'"0!)'0#3'0.)%-#%@#&?'#4"-7.+0)9#SG"# !%G"+J"#Nita, Mario González Escobar and Luis Munguía Orozco. We are in debt with two anonymous reviewers who suggested the use of the disturbance storm time index and provided a list %@#.)5-)*+"-�'@'0'-+'.E#O)570'#W#G".#4"('#G)&?#the generous help of Victor M. Frías Camacho. We "!.%#&?"-J#,[<K,s/#"-(#,\,SQS#@%0#.799%0&)-5#the operation of RESNOM (Red Sismológica del Noroeste de México), to USGS for supporting the operation of NEIC (The National Earthquake Information Center) and magnetic observatories "&#/7+.%-#"-(#O0'.-%8#&%#\</STFK`<S/#aGGGEintermagnet.org) for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice, to NASAESA for SOHO space weather forecast, and Kyoto geomagnetic center.
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