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-79-
-81-
24 11
3% 6%14%
29%
50%
71%84%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
65 69 70 74 75 79 80 84 85 89 90 94 95
22
65 :
75
65 2025 3,657 2042 3,87875 2055 25
2012 2015 2025 2055
65 3,058 24.0% 3,395 26.8% 3,657 30.3% 3,626 39.4%
75 1,511 11.8% 1,646 13.0% 2,179 18.1% 2,401 26.1%
65
75
1,000
65
65
2809.5
34510.2
41011.3
47012.8
050100150200250300350400450500
2010 2015 2020 2025
2010 58.98.2%
56.39.1%
79.48.8%
84.39.5%
66.08.9%
123.49.4%
25.414.9%
11.916.6%
18.115.5
1419.411.1%
2025 117.716.82.00
108.218.1%1.92
148.516.5%1.87
152.818.2%1.81
116.615.9%1.77
197.715.0%1.60
29.519.4%1.16
13.722.1%1.15
20.720.6%1.15
2178.618.1%1.53
4,980 6,008 6,679 7,007 7,298 7,622
5,4036,209
6,512 6,453 6,328 6,25420.0
23.1 24.9 25.7 26.6 28.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
65
65
65
65
-82-
4,3714,357 4,344 4,250 4,175 4,112
3,941 3,680 3,3243,077 2,896
2,761 2,596
1,3031,4121,529 1,749 1,733
1,4791,407 1,495 1,645
1,6001,383
1,2251,128
678 870 1,0371,135 1,242
1,4421,432 1,231 1,186
1,2721,407
1,3661,187
224294
383511 637 736 846 1,015
1,037985
9771,035
1,149
6,5756,933
7,2937,645
7,787 7,769 7,626 7,4217,192
6,9336,664
6,3876,060
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
678870
1,0371,135
1,2421,442 1,432
1,2311,186
1,2721,407
1,3661,187
224
294
383511
637
736 8461,015
1,037985
977 1,0351,149
901
1,164
1,419
1,646
1,879
2,1792,278 2,245 2,223 2,257
2,385 2,401 2,336
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
75 20002025 10
2030 7585 10
402000 2025
75 84
85
40 64
65 74
75 84
85
24 1
839
690
581
424
233
133
22 44
80 114 107
90
2.6
6.3
13.7
26.9
45.9
68.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
65 69 70 74 75 79 80 84 85 89 90
75 2025
-83-
2,911
3,293
4,090
3.64.65.2
4,160
5.76.2
6.4
6.46.76.9
7.47.88.2
8.99.410.0
4,972
21 8,200
H152.3
H171.9
H180.5
H213.0
H241.2
H26 0.63
-84-
24
-85-
2025
-86-
2726
-87-
24 9
25
25 1426
100
25 25026
300
24 35,131
24 2,680
25 20026
470
26 3 499
-88-
-89-
115 48 1
115 48 3 4
115 48 5 205 2
-90-
46.3 47.249.542.1
56.051.2
23
4,980 6,008 6,679 7,007 7,298 7,622
5,4036,209 6,512 6,453 6,328 6,25420.0
23.1 24.9 25.726.6 28.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 203565
65
65
2013( 25) 1
280 345 410 470
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2015 2020 2025
,
41.7%34.0%
19.7%16.7%
15.0%14.7%14.2%
12.0%10.9%9.9%8.8%8.5%7.5%6.9%5.5%5.2%4.4%3.8%3.8%3.6%3.6%3.0%
23
-91-
-92-
25 26 27 29 30
25
26
27 4
26
26
27 4
26
26
27 4
25
26
27 4
-93-
26
-94-
23 24
-95-
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
ADL (IADL)
23 24 2 15
-96-
-97-
-98-
18
-99-
,,,
18 24.816.7 19.3
24.8%
22.5%22.1%
21.4% 21.1% 21.6% 21.6%20.1%
19.3%18.4% 18.3% 18.5% 18.9%
19.7% 20.1%20.0%
16.7% 16.4% 16.5% 16.5% 16.8%17.4% 17.8% 18.1%
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
-100-
25%
12.5%
12.5%
1
22%
2
28%
39%
19.5%
19.5%
1
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28
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36
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55http://www.mhlw.go.jp/seisakunitsuite/bunya/hukushi_kaigo/kaigo_koureisha/chiiki houkatsu/dl/jirei.pdf
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60http://www.hit north.or.jp/houkokusyo/2013tiikihokatsu shiryo.pdf HP
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26 3
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-101-
2.7
3.1
12.5
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8.7
14.9
26.1
20.3
19.0
36.7
32.0
28.7
25.6
35.8
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
-102-
280
15
160 190
200100 300 400
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37,200
24,600
80 15,000
44,400
37,200
80,100 144,400
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2015 1,300
3
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27
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1.5 1.5 2.5 2.80.9 1.22.0
4.22.5 2.5
4.0
6.0
1 2 3 4
1
2 80
3
4
-104-
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-114-
-115-
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