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13/05/2015
FY14-15 WORK PLAN TECHNICAL TASK UPDATE
Sue Kemball-Cook, Jeremiah Johnson, John Grant and Greg Yarwood
13/05/2015
• In January, 2015, Environ
merged with Ramboll, a
European engineering firm
• Started using new name May 1
• No changes to work or contracts
for NETAC or ETCOG, but new
colleagues across more areas of
expertise
• Combined firm has 12,500 employees in 300 offices across 35 countries
• Novato, CA office is in the Environment & Health practice at Ramboll
RAMBOLL ENVIRON MERGER
13/05/2015
• SOF team slides
TASK 5: HRVOC MEASUREMENTS IN THE SABINE INDUSTRIAL DISTRICT
13/05/2015
TASK 2.3: EMISSION INVENTORY REVIEW
Review of TCEQ 2012 Emission Inventory for 5-County Area
• Reviewed off-road, area (non-point), and point sources to identify:
• Sources that are missing from the inventory or are not well-characterized
• Sources that are overestimated or underestimated, are highly uncertain, or for which more accurate or detailed emissions are available
• Source categories for which further emission inventory development efforts are warranted
• Evaluated emissions trends
13/05/2015
• Total anthropogenic NOx emissions reduced from 208 tpd in 2006
to 132 tpd in 2012 (37% decrease)
• On-road mobile decrease due to fleet turnover despite increase in
miles driven
NOx EMISSIONS TRENDS: 2006 TO 2012
13/05/2015
• Anthropogenic + biogenic
(natural sources) emissions
• VOC inventory dominated by
biogenics (1,095 tpd in
2012)
• Abundant biogenics mean there
is typically sufficient VOC to form
ozone
• Ozone formation limited by
the amount of available NOx
TOTAL VOC EMISSION INVENTORY 2012
13/05/2015
• Reductions in oil and gas, area, on-road and point source emissions
VOC EMISSIONS TRENDS: 2006 TO 2012
13/05/2015
• Drilling emissions decreased by 9 tpd from 2008 to 2012
• Locomotive emissions increased
• Underestimation error in emissions calculation identified in previous emission inventory reviews was corrected
2012 OFF-ROAD MOBILE NOx EMISSIONS
13/05/2015
2012 POINT SOURCE NOx EMISSIONS
13/05/2015
• Overall decrease from 2006 to 2012, with some increases from 2010 to 2012
• Decreases in NOx driven by reductions at Martin Lake Power Plant in Rusk County
and Pirkey Power Plant in Harrison County
• Harrison County VOC inventory dominated by Sabine Industrial Complex
• HRVOC emissions can influence ozone at CAMS 19 during northerly winds
POINT SOURCE EMISSION TRENDS
13/05/2015
• Oil and gas is the largest contributor to area source emissions
• Fuel combustion is the second largest source of NOx emissions
• Gasoline distribution is the second largest source of VOC emissions
2012 AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS
13/05/2015
• Compressor engines dominate NOx emission inventory
• VOC emissions divided among many categories
2012 OIL AND GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY
13/05/2015
• Update activity and equipment data for compressor engines used in natural gas
production (high priority)
• Survey owner/operators of gas compressor engines in the 5-county area to
determine engine count and operating characteristics
• Based on NETAC’s limited success in prior efforts to obtain information from
operators on a voluntary basis, we believe that it is unlikely that NETAC could
provide more detailed emission inventory data absent a requirement that
operations data be provided
• Continue efforts to better quantify HRVOC emissions from the Sabine Industrial
District (high priority)
• NETAC performed a SOF study in the Sabine Industrial District in April, 2015
• Update oil and gas activity/equipment area source emissions data (low
priority)
• Verify data underlying gasoline distribution emission inventory (low priority)
RECOMMENDATIONS
13/05/2015
TASK 4: PHOTOCHEMICAL MODELING
• TCEQ has developed a June 2012 ozone model for the Texas Near Nonattainment Areas
• Recent episode with emissions closer to current levels than previous June 2006 episode
• TCEQ plans to expand episode to include entire 2012 ozone season
• NETAC will use the 2012 model to understand ozone in Northeast Texas and model
emission control strategies
• In 1st half of 2015, we ran model using TCEQ weather data, emissions, and other inputs
• Evaluated CAMx model at Northeast Texas monitors and began efforts to improve model
performance
• In 2nd half of 2015, continue efforts to improve performance and carry out CAMx source
apportionment modeling to determine:
• Relative importance of local emissions sources and transport at Northeast Texas monitors
• Contributions from local emissions source categories (on-road mobile, oil and gas, etc.)
13/05/2015
• Model captures many features of the observations, but tends to
overestimate ozone
• Underestimates ozone on June 26 high ozone day
• Excellent simulation of June 27 high ozone day
MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: TYLER
13/05/2015
• Model captures general trends in observations, but tends to overestimate ozone
• Approximate magnitude of June 26 peak is well-simulated, although timing of
peak is earlier in the model than in observations
• ~20 ppb overestimate on June 27 high ozone day
MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: LONGVIEW
13/05/2015
• High bias is more pronounced at Karnack and Longview than at Tyler
• Low observed nocturnal minima suggest that Karnack is influenced by local
NOx source
• June 26-27 peaks overestimated by the model, June 28 very well-simulated
MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: KARNACK
13/05/2015
• WRF meteorological model provides weather data to CAMx ozone
model
• Ramboll Environ is working with TCEQ to improve WRF
performance in Northeast Texas
• Initial WRF model evaluation showed wind speed biases relative to
CAMS monitor winds and too much sunlight reaching the ground
• Re-ran evaluation with airport weather observations to determine if monitor siting issues are affecting results
• Wind speed biases reduced/changed sign with ds472 airport data
• Tested effect of using different surface roughness data in WRF (small)
• Will re-run WRF with cloud algorithms developed by EPA recently
released in new version of WRF
WRF METEOROLOGICAL MODELING
13/05/2015
• Task 1: Conceptual Model Update
• 2015 high ozone day evaluation
• Task 2.1: Oil and Gas Emission Inventory Update
• Task 3: Control Strategy Evaluation
• Tyler Pipe engine evaluation
• TERP participation
• Energy Efficiency
• Task 6: Air Quality Planning
• FY16-17 Work Plan
• Ozone Advance Action Plan
OTHER TASKS
13/05/2015
END
13/05/2015
• Power generation (9.9 MW) from 5 diesel engines and 1 natural
gas-fired engine during ozone season
LOCATION OF TYLER PIPE
13/05/2015
• Update existing 2012 emission inventory for Haynesville Shale
natural gas exploration and production sources and conventional
oil and gas sources
• Project emissions for years 2013-2020
• Evaluate current trends
• Estimate future year activity
• Project emissions, incorporating future controls
TASK 2.1: OIL AND GAS EMISSION INVENTORY UPDATE
13/05/2015
• Haynesville wells are a small fraction of total active gas well count
• Rate of increase in well count declined after 2011 as drilling slowed
OIL AND NATURAL GAS WELL COUNT TRENDS
13/05/2015
• Haynesville production fraction increasing over time
• Gas production increased from 2012-2014 despite low gas prices
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION TRENDS
13/05/2015
• Oil production increased 2011-2014 with higher oil prices
OIL PRODUCTION TRENDS
13/05/2015
• Episode average bias is positive (1.7) at CAMS 19, negative at
KGGG (-1.1)
COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA
S SSNE
S SSNE
13/05/2015
COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA
13/05/2015
LONGVIEW CAMS 19 MONITOR SITING
28
60 yards
160 yards
Buildings to SE and NWLine of trees S thru EScattered trees to NE
13/05/2015
• Episode average bias: KASL (0.63 m/s), CAMS 85 (2.4 m/s)
COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA
S
S
13/05/2015
COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA
13/05/2015
KARNACK CAMS 85 MONITOR SITING
31
55 yards
44 yards100 yards
Trees to W, N, and E
13/05/2015
• Episode average bias: KTYR (-0.71 m/s), CAMS 82 (0.39 m/s)
COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA
S
S
13/05/2015
• Similar wind direction time series for the two sites
COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA
13/05/2015
TYLER CAMS 82 MONITOR SITING
34
150 yards
Open except to N