FX Weekly Commentary Aug 21 - Aug 27 2011 Elite Global Trading

8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary Aug 21 - Aug 27 2011 Elite Global Trading

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An economic outlook for the week: Lookinginto the last full week of August for trades can

be tricky with all the market uncertainty. We

have US and Europe on the verge of falling

back into recession, Swiss Franc being

second guessed as a safe haven currency,

USD Dollar at record lows along with

Treasuries, the Yen at record highs against

the dollar, and central banks around the world

considering devaluing their currency in somefashion. So you as a trader ask yourself where

do I look for the highest probable trades? It's

thorough research and precise measurements

that will capture the absolute best

opportunities in this kind of market. We have

done this work to provide you with what we

believe the best opportunities and information

to navigate through these historical times in

the markets. Always remember, any thing we

provide you for information should be

considered within your frame work of

investing or trading. The information we

provide is what we see best based on our risk

parameters and tolerance, always make sureyou take any information you use and

evaluate if it works within your risk

parameters and tolerance before applying the

information to a decision in the market.

Fundamental Outlook

Elite Global

Trading Forex Weekly CommentaryAug 21st Aug 27th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 16

In this issue:

GBPUSD: Recent highs in this pair look to bein place for the short term up at 1.6600. We

look to see a move down to support levelsprior to a move to break to this years highs at

1.6740 area. The UK's outlook is bleak and

has no MPC members looking to raising rates

in the foreseeable future. So why is this pair

reaching new highs this month? First of all,

UK has done a great job staying out of the

EU's debt problems and when you look around

the world, everyone says, which currency is

most desirable, the pound is neither desirable

or not? USD dollar continuing to stay near

lows, the pound has gained some traction

regardless of its economic data. This pair

wants to test the 1.6740 level in the MedTerm.

Recommendation: Bullish Bias, we see adecline to support levels this week prior to a

move higher. Look for a short term move to

support levels of, 1.6424, 1.6365 and

1.6315. After a move to these lower levels we

will look for a long opportunity up towards

1.6600 and 1.6740 as targeting zone.

Resistance sits at 1.6530, 1.6600 1.6640,

and top at 1.6740.

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD 1

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

2

EURUSD

EURJPY3

EURCHF

Event Risk4

Contact Info

Disclaimer5
http://www.eliteglobaltrader.com/http://www.twitter.com/elitepipmakerhttp://www.linkedin.com/company/elite-global-tradinghttp://www.facebook.com/eliteglobaltrading


2/5

Elite Global

Trading

Aug 21st Aug 27th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 16

AUDUSD: The Aussie has recently come off itslows of .9925 and rallied to resistance around1.0600. With the global headwinds this pair

struggled to stay above the 1.0600 level and

has retreated to the 1.0400 level where we

may see some consolidation prior to this pairs

next move. Another move to the lows is

expected in the near future. With RBA

watching the world closely, they have eased

their interest with wanting to raise rates in the

near term. Trichet's bond buying has

supported the recovery down under. We

currently have a mixed outlook for this pair forthe short term, putting us Neutral Bias. For

the Medium term we see another move down

towards parity 1.0000 and expect another low

prior to another major move up to attempt in

making new historical highs. China being

Australia's main trade partner is also slowing

down showing this week Chinese HSBC

Manufacturing PMI and expected to showanother drop after last months lower reading,

this will weigh on AUDUSD and push to some

lower levels from this reading.

Recommendation: Neutral, another test of1.0315 area is expected in the near term,

with this level holding we may see another

test of recent highs this week. We expect

intraday gains to be capped at 1.0630.

Resistance levels to watch are 1.0457,

1.0502, 1.0555 1.0600 and 1.0630. For

support we have 1.0366 1.0344, 1.0315,

1.0264, 1.0197. We expect some

consolidation with this pair prior to its next

major move up or down. We do have our eyes

on parity 1.0000 in the next few weeks.

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

NZDUSD: The Kiwi has recently dropped fromits all time highs of .8840 level to lowsof .7964. We expect further losses in this pair,

possible going down to .7700 area in the

weeks to come. As global uncertainty builds

the headwinds push this pair back down to

lower levels. With inflation expectations on

Tuesday to increase possible we expect a

further rally before a drop back down to lows

near .8000. Upside will be capped by

resistance at .8420-.8500.

Recommendation: Bearish Bias, we look forthis pair to make further losses in he weekahead. Look for resistance at .8248, .8300,

.8315, .8402 and .8420 area. We have

targets on the downside at .8140, .8100,

.8065 and .7964. We see the rallies on this

pair to continue to be weak and look for a

continued bearish move in the near term.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar


3/5

Elite Global

Trading


EURJPY: This pair has been caught betweenYen strength and Euro weakness. As we move

off the most recent lows last week of 108.00,

a move back up towards 115.00 can be

expected in the short term. The BOJ is very

close to intervening on their currency which

would push this pair up at a rapid pace. Also

with EURUSD looking to make a move back up

to 1.5000 possible in near future would make

the EURJPY move up more drastic then

expected. Keep in mind when trading this pair

the volatility is high and stop placement isimportant. Last week we saw this pair trade in

a choppy manner and we are expecting this to

end soon.

Recommendation: Bullish Bias, we areskeptical of short opportunities with BOJ

threatening to intervene it makes all shorts

very risky. We look to take a long when

confirmation is established, a stop below

108.00 is ideal and targeting 115.00 is a very

good place to place initial targets. Upside

resistance on the way up is at 111.00,

111.61, 112.60, 112.88, 113.70-85 and

115.67.

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURUSD: The EURUSD is the most liquid pairin the currency market along with being the

most challenging to get a broader outlook on

a consistent direction. Each week we see so

many changes in these two major nations that

it is best to look at this pair from a short term

view point for now. With the most recent rise

last week to 1.4520 the indication to higher

prices is certainly their, but with the 1.4550

handle capping this pair we still need to look

for another move down prior to another test at

these levels for a possible break higher. A

break higher will be with an economic pushfor a stronger EUR or Weaker USD. A move

back down to 1.4200-1.4100 can not be

ruled out prior to this pair pushing to break to

new highs. For the week to come we expect

price to push lower to find another bottom

prior to the next major move up.

Recommendation: Neutral, The current rangeof the EURUSD is 1.4530 highs down to

1.4000 area. We will need some economic

push from the Euro zone or the US to see a

break-out of this range, which we expect to

happen here fairly soon. We are close to the

top of this range and expect a drop down to

lower levels. Support levels to watch for are,

1.4350, 1.4330, 1.4290, 1.4237, 1.4168,

1.4130 and 1.4050. Upside resistance sits at

1.4430, 1.4450, 1.4475, and 1.4530. A clear

break of 1.4530 will start the move towards

the expected 1.5000 level in the months tocome. Short term we see move to lower

support this week before another move up.

Consider the levels and where you are in the

range prior to entering a position with this

pair.

Euro / United States Dollar


4/5

Elite Global

Trading


Monday:USD: Mortgage Delinquencies 10am

CNY: HSBC Flash PMI 10:30pm

NZD: Inflation Expectations 11pm

Tuesday:CHF: Trade Balance 2am

EUR: PMI 3am-4am

GBP: Mortgage Approvals 4:30am

EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5am

USD: New Home Sales 10am

Wednesday:EUR: German Ifo Business Climate 4am

EUR: Industrial New Orders 5am

USD: Core Durable Goods 8:30am

EUR: Belgium NBB Business Climate 9am

NZD: Core Retail Sales 6:45pm

Thursday:EUR Gfk German Consumer Climate 2am

USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am

Jackson Hole Symposium Day 1

AUD: RBA Gov Stevens Speaks 7:30pm

Friday:EUR: M3 Money Supply 4am

GBP: Revised GDP 4:30am

CHF: KOF Economic Barometer 5:30am

USD: Prelim GDP 8:30am

USD: Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

9:55am

USD: Bernanke Speaks 10am

Jackson Hole Symposium Day 2

Saturday:Jackson Hole Symposium Day 3

Weeks Event Risk

EURCHF: This pair tends to be very volatile.The Swissy is at a critical juncture when itcomes down to what the SNB will do to

continue to weaken their currency. A peg to

the EURO can not be ruled out yet, which will

basically put the EURCHF in a very tight range.

In the mean time with the uncertainty with the

EURO further drop in this pair from last weeks

highs of 1.1560 is expected. This pair has

made a 1500 pip move up from the drop to

parity 1.0000 at the beginning of August.

From a technical standpoint, a move down to

1.1000 is very probable prior to making a

move higher. Keep an eye on Switzerland

when trading this pair and their economic

policy moves.Recommendation: Neutral, for the short terma short play to 1.1000 is most desirable. With

the Swiss Franc starting to Gain some

strength for the short term we see this to be

the best play for this pair, a wide stop is

needed for this pair because of volatility,

above the 1.1550 is ideal, which may be wide

but with a 300+ pip to the downside

opportunity can still be better then a 1:1.

Keep an eye on economic summit starting

Thursday.

Euro / Swiss Franc


5/5

Any reliance you place onsuch information is thereforestrictly at your own risk.

In no event will we be liable for any

loss or damage including without

limitation, indirect or consequential

loss or damage, or any loss or

damage whatsoever arising from

loss of data or profits arising out of,

or in connection with, the use of this

newsletter.

The information contained in this

newsletter is for general information

purposes only. The information is

provided by Elite Global Trading and

while we endeavor to keep the

information up to date and correct,

we make no representations or

warranties of any kind, express or

implied, about the completeness,

accuracy, reliability, suitability or

availability with respect to the

newsletter or the information,

products, services, or related

graphics contained on the

newsletter for any purpose.

News letter Authors:

Anthony [email protected]

James [email protected]

Tel: 786-759-0348

E-mail:

[email protected]

Elite Global Trading

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FX Weekly Commentary Aug 21 - Aug 27 2011 Elite Global Trading