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Vanna-Volga Approaches Stochastic-Local-Volatility FX Derivatives Product/Platform Trends Summary FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends Uwe Wystup, Universiteit Antwerpen / MathFinance AG uwe.wystup@mathfinance.com Lorentz workshop on Models and Numerics in Financial Mathematics Leiden, 27 May 2015 uwe.wystup@mathfinance.com FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 1 / 31

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Page 1: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Uwe Wystup, Universiteit Antwerpen / MathFinance [email protected]

Lorentz workshop on Models and Numerics in Financial MathematicsLeiden, 27 May 2015

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 1 / 31

Page 2: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Agenda1 Vanna-Volga Approaches

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

2 Stochastic-Local-VolatilityModel HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

3 FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsTarget ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

4 [email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 2 / 31

Page 3: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Agenda1 Vanna-Volga Approaches

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

2 Stochastic-Local-VolatilityModel HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

3 FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsTarget ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

4 [email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 3 / 31

Page 4: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Model History

1 First industrial use: O’Connor & Associates, a Chicago-based optionstrading firm, with particular emphasis on financial derivatives. The firmwas acquired by Swiss Bank Corporation (later merged with Union Bankof Switzerland to form UBS)

2 The relevance of higher order Greeks vanna and volga (also called vomma)has been explained and summarized by Andrew Webb in [Webb, 1999].This essay also mentions the need to estimate the first hitting time of abarrier.

3 Patent [Gershon, 2001] held by SuperDerivatives(SD) 20014 Lipton and McGhee (2002) in [Lipton and McGhee, 2002]5 Intuitive vanna-volga: Wystup 2003[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]6 Mathematical vega-vanna-volga: Castagna/Mercurio 2007

[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006],[Castagna, 2010]

7 Revised vanna-volga: Bossens et al.[Bossens et al., 2009]8 Bloomberg vanna-volga: Fisher [Fisher, 2007]

Other refs [Shkolnikov, 2009], [Janek, 2011]

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 4 / 31

Page 5: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Model History

1 First industrial use: O’Connor & Associates, a Chicago-based optionstrading firm, with particular emphasis on financial derivatives. The firmwas acquired by Swiss Bank Corporation (later merged with Union Bankof Switzerland to form UBS)

2 The relevance of higher order Greeks vanna and volga (also called vomma)has been explained and summarized by Andrew Webb in [Webb, 1999].This essay also mentions the need to estimate the first hitting time of abarrier.

3 Patent [Gershon, 2001] held by SuperDerivatives(SD) 20014 Lipton and McGhee (2002) in [Lipton and McGhee, 2002]5 Intuitive vanna-volga: Wystup 2003[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]6 Mathematical vega-vanna-volga: Castagna/Mercurio 2007

[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006],[Castagna, 2010]

7 Revised vanna-volga: Bossens et al.[Bossens et al., 2009]8 Bloomberg vanna-volga: Fisher [Fisher, 2007]

Other refs [Shkolnikov, 2009], [Janek, 2011]

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 4 / 31

Page 6: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Model History

1 First industrial use: O’Connor & Associates, a Chicago-based optionstrading firm, with particular emphasis on financial derivatives. The firmwas acquired by Swiss Bank Corporation (later merged with Union Bankof Switzerland to form UBS)

2 The relevance of higher order Greeks vanna and volga (also called vomma)has been explained and summarized by Andrew Webb in [Webb, 1999].This essay also mentions the need to estimate the first hitting time of abarrier.

3 Patent [Gershon, 2001] held by SuperDerivatives(SD) 2001

4 Lipton and McGhee (2002) in [Lipton and McGhee, 2002]5 Intuitive vanna-volga: Wystup 2003[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]6 Mathematical vega-vanna-volga: Castagna/Mercurio 2007

[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006],[Castagna, 2010]

7 Revised vanna-volga: Bossens et al.[Bossens et al., 2009]8 Bloomberg vanna-volga: Fisher [Fisher, 2007]

Other refs [Shkolnikov, 2009], [Janek, 2011]

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 4 / 31

Page 7: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Model History

1 First industrial use: O’Connor & Associates, a Chicago-based optionstrading firm, with particular emphasis on financial derivatives. The firmwas acquired by Swiss Bank Corporation (later merged with Union Bankof Switzerland to form UBS)

2 The relevance of higher order Greeks vanna and volga (also called vomma)has been explained and summarized by Andrew Webb in [Webb, 1999].This essay also mentions the need to estimate the first hitting time of abarrier.

3 Patent [Gershon, 2001] held by SuperDerivatives(SD) 20014 Lipton and McGhee (2002) in [Lipton and McGhee, 2002]

5 Intuitive vanna-volga: Wystup 2003[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]6 Mathematical vega-vanna-volga: Castagna/Mercurio 2007

[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006],[Castagna, 2010]

7 Revised vanna-volga: Bossens et al.[Bossens et al., 2009]8 Bloomberg vanna-volga: Fisher [Fisher, 2007]

Other refs [Shkolnikov, 2009], [Janek, 2011]

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 4 / 31

Page 8: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Model History

1 First industrial use: O’Connor & Associates, a Chicago-based optionstrading firm, with particular emphasis on financial derivatives. The firmwas acquired by Swiss Bank Corporation (later merged with Union Bankof Switzerland to form UBS)

2 The relevance of higher order Greeks vanna and volga (also called vomma)has been explained and summarized by Andrew Webb in [Webb, 1999].This essay also mentions the need to estimate the first hitting time of abarrier.

3 Patent [Gershon, 2001] held by SuperDerivatives(SD) 20014 Lipton and McGhee (2002) in [Lipton and McGhee, 2002]5 Intuitive vanna-volga: Wystup 2003[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]

6 Mathematical vega-vanna-volga: Castagna/Mercurio 2007[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006],[Castagna, 2010]

7 Revised vanna-volga: Bossens et al.[Bossens et al., 2009]8 Bloomberg vanna-volga: Fisher [Fisher, 2007]

Other refs [Shkolnikov, 2009], [Janek, 2011]

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 4 / 31

Page 9: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Model History

1 First industrial use: O’Connor & Associates, a Chicago-based optionstrading firm, with particular emphasis on financial derivatives. The firmwas acquired by Swiss Bank Corporation (later merged with Union Bankof Switzerland to form UBS)

2 The relevance of higher order Greeks vanna and volga (also called vomma)has been explained and summarized by Andrew Webb in [Webb, 1999].This essay also mentions the need to estimate the first hitting time of abarrier.

3 Patent [Gershon, 2001] held by SuperDerivatives(SD) 20014 Lipton and McGhee (2002) in [Lipton and McGhee, 2002]5 Intuitive vanna-volga: Wystup 2003[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]6 Mathematical vega-vanna-volga: Castagna/Mercurio 2007

[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006],[Castagna, 2010]

7 Revised vanna-volga: Bossens et al.[Bossens et al., 2009]8 Bloomberg vanna-volga: Fisher [Fisher, 2007]

Other refs [Shkolnikov, 2009], [Janek, 2011]

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 4 / 31

Page 10: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Model History

1 First industrial use: O’Connor & Associates, a Chicago-based optionstrading firm, with particular emphasis on financial derivatives. The firmwas acquired by Swiss Bank Corporation (later merged with Union Bankof Switzerland to form UBS)

2 The relevance of higher order Greeks vanna and volga (also called vomma)has been explained and summarized by Andrew Webb in [Webb, 1999].This essay also mentions the need to estimate the first hitting time of abarrier.

3 Patent [Gershon, 2001] held by SuperDerivatives(SD) 20014 Lipton and McGhee (2002) in [Lipton and McGhee, 2002]5 Intuitive vanna-volga: Wystup 2003[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]6 Mathematical vega-vanna-volga: Castagna/Mercurio 2007

[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006],[Castagna, 2010]

7 Revised vanna-volga: Bossens et al.[Bossens et al., 2009]

8 Bloomberg vanna-volga: Fisher [Fisher, 2007]

Other refs [Shkolnikov, 2009], [Janek, 2011]

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 4 / 31

Page 11: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Model History

1 First industrial use: O’Connor & Associates, a Chicago-based optionstrading firm, with particular emphasis on financial derivatives. The firmwas acquired by Swiss Bank Corporation (later merged with Union Bankof Switzerland to form UBS)

2 The relevance of higher order Greeks vanna and volga (also called vomma)has been explained and summarized by Andrew Webb in [Webb, 1999].This essay also mentions the need to estimate the first hitting time of abarrier.

3 Patent [Gershon, 2001] held by SuperDerivatives(SD) 20014 Lipton and McGhee (2002) in [Lipton and McGhee, 2002]5 Intuitive vanna-volga: Wystup 2003[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]6 Mathematical vega-vanna-volga: Castagna/Mercurio 2007

[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006],[Castagna, 2010]

7 Revised vanna-volga: Bossens et al.[Bossens et al., 2009]8 Bloomberg vanna-volga: Fisher [Fisher, 2007]

Other refs [Shkolnikov, 2009], [Janek, 2011]

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 4 / 31

Page 12: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Model History

1 First industrial use: O’Connor & Associates, a Chicago-based optionstrading firm, with particular emphasis on financial derivatives. The firmwas acquired by Swiss Bank Corporation (later merged with Union Bankof Switzerland to form UBS)

2 The relevance of higher order Greeks vanna and volga (also called vomma)has been explained and summarized by Andrew Webb in [Webb, 1999].This essay also mentions the need to estimate the first hitting time of abarrier.

3 Patent [Gershon, 2001] held by SuperDerivatives(SD) 20014 Lipton and McGhee (2002) in [Lipton and McGhee, 2002]5 Intuitive vanna-volga: Wystup 2003[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]6 Mathematical vega-vanna-volga: Castagna/Mercurio 2007

[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006],[Castagna, 2010]

7 Revised vanna-volga: Bossens et al.[Bossens et al., 2009]8 Bloomberg vanna-volga: Fisher [Fisher, 2007]

Other refs [Shkolnikov, 2009], [Janek, 2011][email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 4 / 31

Page 13: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Wystup/Traders’ Rule of Thumb 2003

[Wystup, 2003], [Wystup, 2006]: compute the cost of the overhedge of riskreversals (RR) and butterflies (BF) to hedge vanna and volga of an option EXO.

VV-value = TV + p[cost of vanna + cost of volga] (1)

with

cost of vanna =vannaEXO

vannaRR× OH RR (2)

cost of volga =volgaEXO

volgaBF× OH BF (3)

p = no-touch probability or modifications (4)

OH = overhedge = market price− TV (5)

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 5 / 31

Page 14: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Castagna/Mercurio 2007

[Castagna and Mercurio, 2007], [Castagna and Mercurio, 2006]: portfolio ofthree calls hedging an option risk up to second order (in particular the vannaand volga of an option.

c(K , σK ) = c(K , σBS) +3∑

i=1

xi (K)[c(Ki , σi )− c(Ki , σBS)] (6)

with

x1(K) =∂c(K ,σBS )

∂σ∂c(K1,σBS )

∂σ

ln K2K

ln K3K

ln K2K1

ln K3K1

x2(K) =∂c(K ,σBS )

∂σ∂c(K2,σBS )

∂σ

ln KK1

ln K3K

ln K2K1

ln K3K2

x3(K) =∂c(K ,σBS )

∂σ∂c(K3,σBS )

∂σ

ln KK1

ln KK2

ln K3K1

ln K3K2

. (7)

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 6 / 31

Page 15: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Design Issues

Hedge with BF and RR vs Hedge with 3 Vanillas, and if vanillas thenwhich ones?

Include vega

Include third order Greeks (volunga, vanunga)

One-touch probability: which measure? domestic, foreign, physical, mixes?

Apply different weights to vega, vanna and volga, e.g. vanna weight =No-Touch-Probability p, vega and volga weight = 1+p

2, [Fisher, 2007]

Not clear how to translate to Double-Touch products

Which volatility to use for the touch probability: ATM, average of ATMand barrier vol, derived from equilibrium condition NTvv=NTbs+NTvv*...

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 7 / 31

Page 16: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Design Issues

Hedge with BF and RR vs Hedge with 3 Vanillas, and if vanillas thenwhich ones?

Include vega

Include third order Greeks (volunga, vanunga)

One-touch probability: which measure? domestic, foreign, physical, mixes?

Apply different weights to vega, vanna and volga, e.g. vanna weight =No-Touch-Probability p, vega and volga weight = 1+p

2, [Fisher, 2007]

Not clear how to translate to Double-Touch products

Which volatility to use for the touch probability: ATM, average of ATMand barrier vol, derived from equilibrium condition NTvv=NTbs+NTvv*...

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 7 / 31

Page 17: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Design Issues

Hedge with BF and RR vs Hedge with 3 Vanillas, and if vanillas thenwhich ones?

Include vega

Include third order Greeks (volunga, vanunga)

One-touch probability: which measure? domestic, foreign, physical, mixes?

Apply different weights to vega, vanna and volga, e.g. vanna weight =No-Touch-Probability p, vega and volga weight = 1+p

2, [Fisher, 2007]

Not clear how to translate to Double-Touch products

Which volatility to use for the touch probability: ATM, average of ATMand barrier vol, derived from equilibrium condition NTvv=NTbs+NTvv*...

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 7 / 31

Page 18: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Design Issues

Hedge with BF and RR vs Hedge with 3 Vanillas, and if vanillas thenwhich ones?

Include vega

Include third order Greeks (volunga, vanunga)

One-touch probability: which measure? domestic, foreign, physical, mixes?

Apply different weights to vega, vanna and volga, e.g. vanna weight =No-Touch-Probability p, vega and volga weight = 1+p

2, [Fisher, 2007]

Not clear how to translate to Double-Touch products

Which volatility to use for the touch probability: ATM, average of ATMand barrier vol, derived from equilibrium condition NTvv=NTbs+NTvv*...

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 7 / 31

Page 19: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Design Issues

Hedge with BF and RR vs Hedge with 3 Vanillas, and if vanillas thenwhich ones?

Include vega

Include third order Greeks (volunga, vanunga)

One-touch probability: which measure? domestic, foreign, physical, mixes?

Apply different weights to vega, vanna and volga, e.g. vanna weight =No-Touch-Probability p, vega and volga weight = 1+p

2, [Fisher, 2007]

Not clear how to translate to Double-Touch products

Which volatility to use for the touch probability: ATM, average of ATMand barrier vol, derived from equilibrium condition NTvv=NTbs+NTvv*...

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 7 / 31

Page 20: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Design Issues

Hedge with BF and RR vs Hedge with 3 Vanillas, and if vanillas thenwhich ones?

Include vega

Include third order Greeks (volunga, vanunga)

One-touch probability: which measure? domestic, foreign, physical, mixes?

Apply different weights to vega, vanna and volga, e.g. vanna weight =No-Touch-Probability p, vega and volga weight = 1+p

2, [Fisher, 2007]

Not clear how to translate to Double-Touch products

Which volatility to use for the touch probability: ATM, average of ATMand barrier vol, derived from equilibrium condition NTvv=NTbs+NTvv*...

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 7 / 31

Page 21: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Design Issues

Hedge with BF and RR vs Hedge with 3 Vanillas, and if vanillas thenwhich ones?

Include vega

Include third order Greeks (volunga, vanunga)

One-touch probability: which measure? domestic, foreign, physical, mixes?

Apply different weights to vega, vanna and volga, e.g. vanna weight =No-Touch-Probability p, vega and volga weight = 1+p

2, [Fisher, 2007]

Not clear how to translate to Double-Touch products

Which volatility to use for the touch probability: ATM, average of ATMand barrier vol, derived from equilibrium condition NTvv=NTbs+NTvv*...

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 7 / 31

Page 22: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Comparison: Heston-Local-VV EUR-USD OT Moustache

0.08

0.06

0 02

0.04

0

0.02

Heston

Local

‐0.02

00.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 VV Cost

VV Solve

‐0.04

0.02

‐0.06

‐0.08

Figure : Model Comparison 6-M-EUR-USD-OT down paying USD: Market data ofJuly 11 2012

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 8 / 31

Page 23: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Comparison: Heston-Local-VV EUR-USD DNT Moustache

0.12

0.14

0.1

0.08

0 04

0.06

Heston

Local

0.02

0.04VV Cost

VV Solve

00 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4

‐0.02

‐0.06

‐0.04

Figure : Model Comparison 6-M-EUR-USD-DNT paying USD: Market data of July 112012

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 9 / 31

Page 24: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Comparison: Heston-Local-VV EUR-USD Down-Out-Call Moustache

0.0005

00 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045

‐0.0005

‐0.001Heston

Local

‐0.0015

VV Cost

VV Solve

‐0.002

‐0.0025

‐0.003

Figure : Model Comparison 6-M-EUR-USD down-out-call: Market data of July 112012

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 10 / 31

Page 25: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Consistency Issues

0 08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Barrier Price Vs Vanilla Price with VV method

Barrier Price

Vanilla Price

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

100.00% 102.00% 104.00% 106.00% 108.00% 110.00%

Figure : Convergence of a RKO EUR call CHF put to vanilla, strike 1.0809, 60 days,Market data of April 11 2012: Spot ref 1.20105, 2M EUR rate 0.055%, 2M-Forward-5.65, 10D BF 4.10, 25D BF 1.4755, ATM 3.00, 25D RR -0.7010, 10D RR -1.70.

Vanna-Volga as in [Wystup, 2010] causes arbitrage in extreme markets.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 11 / 31

Page 26: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryWystup/Traders’ Rule of ThumbCastagna/MercurioDesign IssuesConsistency Issues

Vanna-Volga Consistency Issues

LOOKBACKCOMPOUND

INSTALLMENT

FWDSTARTWINDOW‐BARRIER

TOLDNTASIAN

INSTALLMENTDISCRETE‐BARRIERPARISIAN

AUSTRALIAN AMERICAN

DNTDOT

DIGKI TAKIBKO

KOBKI ONION

POWER

FORWARDDKO DKIKIKODIGKO

OPOWERVARSWAP

OT

RISK REVERSALSTRADDLESTRANGLE

NT

KI KORKO

KIKOF

FLUFFY

VANILLA

STRANGLEBUTTERFLYCONDOR

(RATIO) SPREAD

RKI

DIGITALEKO

DCDKIKOF

(RATIO) SPREADPARTICIPATOR

SEAGULLCHOOSER

DIGITAL

EKICORRIDOR

F+

CHOOSERCO O

FADER KOFADER ACCU TRF

Figure : Wystup’s Exotic Options [email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 12 / 31

Page 27: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Sotchastic-Local Volatility Model History

Generally agreed original LSV reference: Jex, Henderson and Wang(1999) [Jex et al., 1999].

Parabola in spot in LSV: Blacher (2001) [Blacher, 2001]. Volatility: meanreverting process, described in [Ayache et al., 2004] as

dS/S = r dt + σ(1 + α(S − S0) + β(S − S0)2)dW

dσ = κ(θ − σ)dt + ε σdZ

In [Lipton, 2002] Lipton describes an LSV model using a mean revertingprocess for the variance (like in the Heston model) and a general localvolatility function σL(t,S) as multiplicator for the stochastic volatility inthe equation for the spot process.

Several LSV models using different choices of local volatility functions inthe equation for the spot or forward process combined with a stochasticprocess for the volatility, the variance, or a function of variance, have beenconsidered and implemented in the following years in the industry. (See forone example [de Backer, 2006].)

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 13 / 31

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Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Sotchastic-Local Volatility Model History

Generally agreed original LSV reference: Jex, Henderson and Wang(1999) [Jex et al., 1999].

Parabola in spot in LSV: Blacher (2001) [Blacher, 2001]. Volatility: meanreverting process, described in [Ayache et al., 2004] as

dS/S = r dt + σ(1 + α(S − S0) + β(S − S0)2)dW

dσ = κ(θ − σ)dt + ε σdZ

In [Lipton, 2002] Lipton describes an LSV model using a mean revertingprocess for the variance (like in the Heston model) and a general localvolatility function σL(t,S) as multiplicator for the stochastic volatility inthe equation for the spot process.

Several LSV models using different choices of local volatility functions inthe equation for the spot or forward process combined with a stochasticprocess for the volatility, the variance, or a function of variance, have beenconsidered and implemented in the following years in the industry. (See forone example [de Backer, 2006].)

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 13 / 31

Page 29: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Sotchastic-Local Volatility Model History

Generally agreed original LSV reference: Jex, Henderson and Wang(1999) [Jex et al., 1999].

Parabola in spot in LSV: Blacher (2001) [Blacher, 2001]. Volatility: meanreverting process, described in [Ayache et al., 2004] as

dS/S = r dt + σ(1 + α(S − S0) + β(S − S0)2)dW

dσ = κ(θ − σ)dt + ε σdZ

In [Lipton, 2002] Lipton describes an LSV model using a mean revertingprocess for the variance (like in the Heston model) and a general localvolatility function σL(t,S) as multiplicator for the stochastic volatility inthe equation for the spot process.

Several LSV models using different choices of local volatility functions inthe equation for the spot or forward process combined with a stochasticprocess for the volatility, the variance, or a function of variance, have beenconsidered and implemented in the following years in the industry. (See forone example [de Backer, 2006].)

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 13 / 31

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Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Sotchastic-Local Volatility Model History

Generally agreed original LSV reference: Jex, Henderson and Wang(1999) [Jex et al., 1999].

Parabola in spot in LSV: Blacher (2001) [Blacher, 2001]. Volatility: meanreverting process, described in [Ayache et al., 2004] as

dS/S = r dt + σ(1 + α(S − S0) + β(S − S0)2)dW

dσ = κ(θ − σ)dt + ε σdZ

In [Lipton, 2002] Lipton describes an LSV model using a mean revertingprocess for the variance (like in the Heston model) and a general localvolatility function σL(t,S) as multiplicator for the stochastic volatility inthe equation for the spot process.

Several LSV models using different choices of local volatility functions inthe equation for the spot or forward process combined with a stochasticprocess for the volatility, the variance, or a function of variance, have beenconsidered and implemented in the following years in the industry. (See forone example [de Backer, 2006].)

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 13 / 31

Page 31: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

What Murex calls “Tremor”

Model 1 the forward as ( [Murex, 2008b], [Murex, 2008a])

df Tt =

√vt · g(f T

t )dW(1)t , (8)

dvt = κ(θ − vt)dt + η√

vtdW(2)t (9)

g(f ) = min(a + bf + cf 2, cap · f ) (10)

Cov(dW(1)t , dW

(2)t ) = ρdt (11)

1The name “Tremor” originates from Pascal Tremoureux, a senior member of the quant teamat Murex

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 14 / 31

Page 32: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

What Murex calls “Tremor”

f Tt forward to maturity T seen from t

vt variance process

v0 initial instantaneous variance

θ long-term variance set to v0

κ > 0 rate of mean-reversion

ρ instantaneous correlation between f Tt and vt

η volatility of variance (vol of vol)

a, b, c parameters of g the local volatility function

cap: 500%

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 15 / 31

Page 33: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp Hooray

LSV model 2 introduced by Jackel and Kahl in 2007 ( [Jackel and Kahl, 2010]),within equity options context, both of hyperbolic type in the parametric localvol and stochastic vol:

dx = σ0 · f (x) · g(y)dW(1)t , (12)

dy = −κydt + α√

2κdW(2)t (13)

f (x) =[(1− β + β2) · x + (β − 1) ·

(√x2 + β2(1− x2)− β

)]/β (14)

g(y) = y +√

y 2 + 1 (15)

Cov(dW(1)t , dW

(2)t ) = ρdt (16)

WLOG β > 0, g(0) = 1, x(0) = 1, f (1) = 1.

Pros:

analytical approximation for implied volatilities

2SD uses a version of this model [Vozovoi and Klein, 2011][email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 16 / 31

Page 34: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp Hooray

LSV model 2 introduced by Jackel and Kahl in 2007 ( [Jackel and Kahl, 2010]),within equity options context, both of hyperbolic type in the parametric localvol and stochastic vol:

dx = σ0 · f (x) · g(y)dW(1)t , (12)

dy = −κydt + α√

2κdW(2)t (13)

f (x) =[(1− β + β2) · x + (β − 1) ·

(√x2 + β2(1− x2)− β

)]/β (14)

g(y) = y +√

y 2 + 1 (15)

Cov(dW(1)t , dW

(2)t ) = ρdt (16)

WLOG β > 0, g(0) = 1, x(0) = 1, f (1) = 1.Pros:

analytical approximation for implied volatilities

2SD uses a version of this model [Vozovoi and Klein, 2011][email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 16 / 31

Page 35: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Contained in PricingPartners: “Andersen-Hutchings”

[Andersen and Hutchings, 2008], a generalisation of [Piterbarg, 2005],consider a normalized asset

dXt = λ(t)√

Vt

(1− b(t) + b(t)Xt +

1

2c(t)(Xt − 1)2

)dW

(1)t , (17)

dVt = κ(1− Vt)dt + η(t)√

VtdW(2)t ,V0 = 1,X0 = 1 (18)

Cov(dW(1)t ,dW

(2)t ) = ρ(t)dt (19)

The model parameters are:

b(t) is the linear skew parameter, being a time-dependent function.

c(t) is the quadratic skew parameter, being a time-dependent function.

λ(t) is a time-dependent function.

κ is the mean reversion speed of volatility.

η(t) is the volatility of variance, being a time-dependent function

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 17 / 31

Page 36: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Contained in PricingPartners: “Andersen-Hutchings”

[Andersen and Hutchings, 2008], a generalisation of [Piterbarg, 2005],consider a normalized asset

dXt = λ(t)√

Vt

(1− b(t) + b(t)Xt +

1

2c(t)(Xt − 1)2

)dW

(1)t , (17)

dVt = κ(1− Vt)dt + η(t)√

VtdW(2)t ,V0 = 1,X0 = 1 (18)

Cov(dW(1)t ,dW

(2)t ) = ρ(t)dt (19)

The model parameters are:

b(t) is the linear skew parameter, being a time-dependent function.

c(t) is the quadratic skew parameter, being a time-dependent function.

λ(t) is a time-dependent function.

κ is the mean reversion speed of volatility.

η(t) is the volatility of variance, being a time-dependent function

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 17 / 31

Page 37: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Volmaster’s “Silvano”

dSt = (rdt − r ft )Stdt + σtStdW(1)t , (20)

dVt = ηt(ln ztθt − ln Vt)Vtdt + ΣtdW(2)t , (21)

Lt = f (St ,Σt , ρt , t), (22)

σt = min[cap, zt(ωtVt + (1− ωt)Lt)], (23)

Cov [dW(1)t , dW

(2)t ] = ρtdt, (24)

where

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 18 / 31

Page 38: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Volmaster’s “Silvano”

St : spot price (25)

rdt : domestic rate (26)

r ft : foreign rate (27)

σt : volatility (28)

Vt : stochastic volatility (29)

ηt : mean reversion speed of stochastic volatility (30)

θt : equilibrium level of stochastic volatility (31)

Σt : volatility of volatility (32)

zt : volatility drift factor (33)

Lt : local volatility (34)

ωt : stochastic volatility weight (35)

ρt : spot-volatility correlation (36)

cap : volatility cap, currently set at 1000% (37)

f : local volatility function (38)

SABR [Hagan et al., 2002] used as local volatility function.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 19 / 31

Page 39: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Pagliarani & Pascucci: SLV with Jumps

Risk-neutral dynamics for the log-price of the underlyingasset [Pascucci and Pagliarani, 2012]

dXt =

(r − µ1 −

σ2(t,Xt−)vt2

)Stdt + σ(t,Xt−)

√vtdW

(1)t + dZt ,(39)

dvt = k(θ − vt)Vtdt + η√

vt(ρdW

(1)t +

√1− ρ2dW

(2)t

), (40)

r = rd − rf −∫

(ey − 1− yII{−1<y<+1})ν(dy)

Z pure-jump Levy process independent of the W , with triplet (µ1, 0, ν)

Model is characterized by the local volatility function σ, the varianceparameters: initial variance v0, speed of mean reversion k, long-termvariance θ, vol-of-vol η and correlation ρ; and the Levy measure ν.

Analytical approximation of the characteristic function.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 20 / 31

Page 40: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Pagliarani & Pascucci: SLV with Jumps

Risk-neutral dynamics for the log-price of the underlyingasset [Pascucci and Pagliarani, 2012]

dXt =

(r − µ1 −

σ2(t,Xt−)vt2

)Stdt + σ(t,Xt−)

√vtdW

(1)t + dZt ,(39)

dvt = k(θ − vt)Vtdt + η√

vt(ρdW

(1)t +

√1− ρ2dW

(2)t

), (40)

r = rd − rf −∫

(ey − 1− yII{−1<y<+1})ν(dy)

Z pure-jump Levy process independent of the W , with triplet (µ1, 0, ν)

Model is characterized by the local volatility function σ, the varianceparameters: initial variance v0, speed of mean reversion k, long-termvariance θ, vol-of-vol η and correlation ρ; and the Levy measure ν.

Analytical approximation of the characteristic function.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 20 / 31

Page 41: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Bloomgerg’s SVL Model [Tataru et al., 2012]

dSt

St= (rdt − r ft )dt + L(St , t)VtdW

(1)t , (41)

dVt = κ(θ − Vt)dt + ξVtdW(2)t , (42)

Cov[dW(1)t , dW

(2)t ] = ρtdt, (43)

where the local volatility L and stochastic volatility V are mixed using0 ≤ λ ≤ 1 for

ξ = λξmax, ρ = λρmax. (44)

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 21 / 31

Page 42: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Model HistoryExample: Tremor (Murex)Example: Jackel/Kahl’s Hyp Hyp HoorayExample: Andersen-Hutchings (PricingPartners)Example: Silvano (Volmaster)Example: Pagliarani & PascucciExample: Bloomberg

Bloomgerg’s SVL Model [Tataru et al., 2012]

dSt

St= (rdt − r ft )dt + L(St , t)VtdW

(1)t , (41)

dVt = κ(θ − Vt)dt + ξVtdW(2)t , (42)

Cov[dW(1)t , dW

(2)t ] = ρtdt, (43)

where the local volatility L and stochastic volatility V are mixed using0 ≤ λ ≤ 1 for

ξ = λξmax, ρ = λρmax. (44)

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 21 / 31

Page 43: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Derivatives Product Trends: Target Forwards

Investor sells EUR 5 big figures above current spot every day for one year.

Terminates as soon as 30 big figures of profit have accumulated.

Zero cost strategy.

1 Client type Treasurer vs. HNWI

2 Other names: Target Profit Forward, Target Redemption Forward, FlipFlop, Potential Disaster Forward...

3 Variations: Knock-in-knock-out, leverage, pivot, counter

4 Pricing/Platforms

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 22 / 31

Page 44: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Derivatives Product Trends: Target Forwards

Investor sells EUR 5 big figures above current spot every day for one year.

Terminates as soon as 30 big figures of profit have accumulated.

Zero cost strategy.

1 Client type Treasurer vs. HNWI

2 Other names: Target Profit Forward, Target Redemption Forward, FlipFlop, Potential Disaster Forward...

3 Variations: Knock-in-knock-out, leverage, pivot, counter

4 Pricing/Platforms

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 22 / 31

Page 45: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Derivatives Product Trends: Target Forwards

Investor sells EUR 5 big figures above current spot every day for one year.

Terminates as soon as 30 big figures of profit have accumulated.

Zero cost strategy.

1 Client type Treasurer vs. HNWI

2 Other names: Target Profit Forward, Target Redemption Forward, FlipFlop, Potential Disaster Forward...

3 Variations: Knock-in-knock-out, leverage, pivot, counter

4 Pricing/Platforms

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 22 / 31

Page 46: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Derivatives Product Trends: Target Forwards

Investor sells EUR 5 big figures above current spot every day for one year.

Terminates as soon as 30 big figures of profit have accumulated.

Zero cost strategy.

1 Client type Treasurer vs. HNWI

2 Other names: Target Profit Forward, Target Redemption Forward, FlipFlop, Potential Disaster Forward...

3 Variations: Knock-in-knock-out, leverage, pivot, counter

4 Pricing/Platforms

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 22 / 31

Page 47: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Derivatives Product Trends: Target Forwards

Investor sells EUR 5 big figures above current spot every day for one year.

Terminates as soon as 30 big figures of profit have accumulated.

Zero cost strategy.

1 Client type Treasurer vs. HNWI

2 Other names: Target Profit Forward, Target Redemption Forward, FlipFlop, Potential Disaster Forward...

3 Variations: Knock-in-knock-out, leverage, pivot, counter

4 Pricing/Platforms

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 22 / 31

Page 48: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

Pivot Target Forward P&L Scenarios

Figure : P&L Scenarios Pivot Target Forward

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 23 / 31

Page 49: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

Pivot Target Forward Payoff and Psychology

Figure : Pivot Target Forward Payoff and Psychology

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 24 / 31

Page 50: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Derivatives in Digital Casinos

1 Extremely short dated digitals, touches, vanilla

2 Liquid underlyings such as G10FX, XAU, XAG, major stock indices and

3 geometric Brownian motion

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 25 / 31

Page 51: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Derivatives in Digital Casinos

1 Extremely short dated digitals, touches, vanilla

2 Liquid underlyings such as G10FX, XAU, XAG, major stock indices and

3 geometric Brownian motion

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 25 / 31

Page 52: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Derivatives in Digital Casinos

1 Extremely short dated digitals, touches, vanilla

2 Liquid underlyings such as G10FX, XAU, XAG, major stock indices and

3 geometric Brownian motion

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 25 / 31

Page 53: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX CFDs on Brokerage Platforms

1 Contract For the Difference (CFD) - Futures contract for retail investors

2 Liquid underlyings such as FX, metals, commodities, major stock indices,single stocks

3 Initial margin (1 hour 6-sigma-event) can be as low as 0.25% of thenotional if e.g. EUR-CHF volatility is as low as 3%.

4 Long EUR 1 M requires EUR 2,500 margin and a drop in spot from 1.2100to 0.9680 causes a loss of EUR 250,000 EUR.

5 What happened to the stop loss order at 1.2000?

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 26 / 31

Page 54: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX CFDs on Brokerage Platforms

1 Contract For the Difference (CFD) - Futures contract for retail investors

2 Liquid underlyings such as FX, metals, commodities, major stock indices,single stocks

3 Initial margin (1 hour 6-sigma-event) can be as low as 0.25% of thenotional if e.g. EUR-CHF volatility is as low as 3%.

4 Long EUR 1 M requires EUR 2,500 margin and a drop in spot from 1.2100to 0.9680 causes a loss of EUR 250,000 EUR.

5 What happened to the stop loss order at 1.2000?

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 26 / 31

Page 55: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX CFDs on Brokerage Platforms

1 Contract For the Difference (CFD) - Futures contract for retail investors

2 Liquid underlyings such as FX, metals, commodities, major stock indices,single stocks

3 Initial margin (1 hour 6-sigma-event) can be as low as 0.25% of thenotional if e.g. EUR-CHF volatility is as low as 3%.

4 Long EUR 1 M requires EUR 2,500 margin and a drop in spot from 1.2100to 0.9680 causes a loss of EUR 250,000 EUR.

5 What happened to the stop loss order at 1.2000?

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 26 / 31

Page 56: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX CFDs on Brokerage Platforms

1 Contract For the Difference (CFD) - Futures contract for retail investors

2 Liquid underlyings such as FX, metals, commodities, major stock indices,single stocks

3 Initial margin (1 hour 6-sigma-event) can be as low as 0.25% of thenotional if e.g. EUR-CHF volatility is as low as 3%.

4 Long EUR 1 M requires EUR 2,500 margin and a drop in spot from 1.2100to 0.9680 causes a loss of EUR 250,000 EUR.

5 What happened to the stop loss order at 1.2000?

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 26 / 31

Page 57: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX CFDs on Brokerage Platforms

1 Contract For the Difference (CFD) - Futures contract for retail investors

2 Liquid underlyings such as FX, metals, commodities, major stock indices,single stocks

3 Initial margin (1 hour 6-sigma-event) can be as low as 0.25% of thenotional if e.g. EUR-CHF volatility is as low as 3%.

4 Long EUR 1 M requires EUR 2,500 margin and a drop in spot from 1.2100to 0.9680 causes a loss of EUR 250,000 EUR.

5 What happened to the stop loss order at 1.2000?

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 26 / 31

Page 58: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Options Software Solutions

Banks with tradability: UBS trader, Barx, Commerzbank Kristall, CSMerlin, . . .

Trading Volmaster (SaaS), SuperDerivatives (browser based),Bloomberg

Libraries MathFinance, Pricing Partners, Numerix, Fincad

Systems Murex, Fenics, Calypso

Data Bloomberg, Reuters, SuperDerivatives, Tullett

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 27 / 31

Page 59: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Options Software Solutions

Banks with tradability: UBS trader, Barx, Commerzbank Kristall, CSMerlin, . . .

Trading Volmaster (SaaS), SuperDerivatives (browser based),Bloomberg

Libraries MathFinance, Pricing Partners, Numerix, Fincad

Systems Murex, Fenics, Calypso

Data Bloomberg, Reuters, SuperDerivatives, Tullett

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 27 / 31

Page 60: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Options Software Solutions

Banks with tradability: UBS trader, Barx, Commerzbank Kristall, CSMerlin, . . .

Trading Volmaster (SaaS), SuperDerivatives (browser based),Bloomberg

Libraries MathFinance, Pricing Partners, Numerix, Fincad

Systems Murex, Fenics, Calypso

Data Bloomberg, Reuters, SuperDerivatives, Tullett

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 27 / 31

Page 61: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Options Software Solutions

Banks with tradability: UBS trader, Barx, Commerzbank Kristall, CSMerlin, . . .

Trading Volmaster (SaaS), SuperDerivatives (browser based),Bloomberg

Libraries MathFinance, Pricing Partners, Numerix, Fincad

Systems Murex, Fenics, Calypso

Data Bloomberg, Reuters, SuperDerivatives, Tullett

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 27 / 31

Page 62: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Target ForwardsFX Derivatives in Digital CasinosFX CFDs on Brokerage PlatformsFX Options Software Solutions

FX Options Software Solutions

Banks with tradability: UBS trader, Barx, Commerzbank Kristall, CSMerlin, . . .

Trading Volmaster (SaaS), SuperDerivatives (browser based),Bloomberg

Libraries MathFinance, Pricing Partners, Numerix, Fincad

Systems Murex, Fenics, Calypso

Data Bloomberg, Reuters, SuperDerivatives, Tullett

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 27 / 31

Page 63: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Comparison: DNT Moustache

14%

10%

12%

8%Heston

Local vol

4%

6% Stoch‐local

Market

2%

%Local Flat vol

Vanna‐volga 1

Vanna volga 2

‐2%

0%0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Vanna‐volga 2

Vanna‐volga 3

‐4%

‐2%

‐6%

Figure : Model Comparison 6-M-EUR-USD-DNT paying USD: Spot ref 1.3068, 6MUSD rate 0.11%, 6M-Forward 14.40, 10D BF 1.85, 25D BF0.45, ATM 11.99, 25D RR-2.4, 10D RR -4.59. “Market” price from [email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 28 / 31

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Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Summary

1 SLV is a common trend in FX 1st generation exotics flow business.

2 Vanna-volga is still used as a quick improvement to Black-Scholes, butconsidered outdated. Can be used as faster alternative to LSV, but type ofvanna-volga requires care and consistency wrappers.

3 Calibration of LSV models is the critical challenge.

4 SLV may not be suitable for all products such as forward vollies,multi-currencies, and drifties (TRFs)

5 Vanna-volga resurrects in digital casinos and private banking.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 29 / 31

Page 65: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Summary

1 SLV is a common trend in FX 1st generation exotics flow business.

2 Vanna-volga is still used as a quick improvement to Black-Scholes, butconsidered outdated. Can be used as faster alternative to LSV, but type ofvanna-volga requires care and consistency wrappers.

3 Calibration of LSV models is the critical challenge.

4 SLV may not be suitable for all products such as forward vollies,multi-currencies, and drifties (TRFs)

5 Vanna-volga resurrects in digital casinos and private banking.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 29 / 31

Page 66: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Summary

1 SLV is a common trend in FX 1st generation exotics flow business.

2 Vanna-volga is still used as a quick improvement to Black-Scholes, butconsidered outdated. Can be used as faster alternative to LSV, but type ofvanna-volga requires care and consistency wrappers.

3 Calibration of LSV models is the critical challenge.

4 SLV may not be suitable for all products such as forward vollies,multi-currencies, and drifties (TRFs)

5 Vanna-volga resurrects in digital casinos and private banking.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 29 / 31

Page 67: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Summary

1 SLV is a common trend in FX 1st generation exotics flow business.

2 Vanna-volga is still used as a quick improvement to Black-Scholes, butconsidered outdated. Can be used as faster alternative to LSV, but type ofvanna-volga requires care and consistency wrappers.

3 Calibration of LSV models is the critical challenge.

4 SLV may not be suitable for all products such as forward vollies,multi-currencies, and drifties (TRFs)

5 Vanna-volga resurrects in digital casinos and private banking.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 29 / 31

Page 68: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Summary

1 SLV is a common trend in FX 1st generation exotics flow business.

2 Vanna-volga is still used as a quick improvement to Black-Scholes, butconsidered outdated. Can be used as faster alternative to LSV, but type ofvanna-volga requires care and consistency wrappers.

3 Calibration of LSV models is the critical challenge.

4 SLV may not be suitable for all products such as forward vollies,multi-currencies, and drifties (TRFs)

5 Vanna-volga resurrects in digital casinos and private banking.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 29 / 31

Page 69: FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends

Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Publications:https://mathfinance2.com/Papers/Wystup

MathFinance F(x):https://mathfinance2.com/Products/MFFx

16th Frankfurt MathFinance Conference:14 - 15 March 2016

https://mathfinance2.com/Conferences/2015/

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 30 / 31

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FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Andersen, L. B. G. and Hutchings, N. (2008).Parameter Averaging of Quadratic SDEs with Stochastic Volatility.SSRN 1339971.

Ayache, E., Henriotte, P., Nassar, S., and Wang, X. (2004).Can Anyone Solve the Smile Problem?Willmott Magazine, pages 78–95.

Blacher, G. (2001).A New Approach for Designing and Calibrating Stochastic VolatilityModels for Optimal Delta-Vega Hedging of Exotic Options.Conference presentation at Global Derivatives.

Bossens, F., Rayee, G., Skantzos, N. S., and Deelstra, G. (2009).Vanna-Volga Methods Applied to FX Derivatives: from Theory to MarketPractice.Working Papers CEB, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels Schoolof Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB), April.

Castagna, A. (2010).FX Options and Smile Risk.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 30 / 31

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Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

John Wiley & Sons.

Castagna, A. and Mercurio, F. (2006).Consistent Pricing of FX Options.SSRN eLibrary.

Castagna, A. and Mercurio, F. (2007).The Vanna-Volga Method for Implied Volatilities.RISK, 20(1):106.

de Backer, B. (2006).Foreign Exchange Smile Modelling.Master’s thesis, Financial Engineering, University of Delft.

Fisher, T. (2007).Variations on the Vanna-Volga Adjustment.Bloomberg Research Paper.

Gershon, D. (2001).A Method and System for Pricing Options.U.S. Patent, 7315828B2(7315828B2).

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 30 / 31

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Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Hagan, P. S., Kumar, D., Lesniewski, A. S., and Woodward, D. E. (2002).Managing Smile Risk.Wilmott Magazine, 1:84–108.

Jackel, P. and Kahl, C. (2010).Hyp Hyp Hooray.

Janek, A. (2011).The Vanna-Volga Method for Derivatives Pricing.Master Thesis Wroclaw University.

Jex, M., Henderson, R., and Wang, D. (1999).Pricing Exotics under the Smile.Risk, pages 72–75.

Lipton, A. (2002).The Vol Smile Problem.Risk, pages 61–65.

Lipton, A. and McGhee, W. (2002).Universal Barriers.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 30 / 31

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Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Risk, May:81–85.

Murex (2008a).Tremor Model and Smile Dynamics.Murex internal document.

Murex (2008b).Tremor Model Flyer.Murex internal document.

Pascucci, A. and Pagliarani, S. (2012).Local Stochastic Volatility with Jumps.

Piterbarg, V. V. (2005).A Multi-Currency Model with FX Volatility Skew.SSRN 685084.

Shkolnikov, Y. (2009).Generalized Vanna-Volga Method and its Applications.NumeriX Quantitative Research Paper.

Tataru, G., Fisher, T., and Yu, J. (2012).The bloomberg stochastic local volatility model for fx exotics.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 30 / 31

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Vanna-Volga ApproachesStochastic-Local-Volatility

FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

Quantitative Finance Development, Bloomberg L.P.

Vozovoi, L. and Klein, D. (2011).SD Stochastic Local Volatility Model.

Webb, A. (1999).The Sensitivity of Vega.DerivativesStrategy.com, November.

Wystup, U. (2003).The Market Price of One-touch Options in Foreign Exchange Markets.Derivatives Week, XII(13).

Wystup, U. (2006).FX Options and Structured Products.Wiley.

Wystup, U. (2010).Encyclopedia of Quantitative Finance, chapter Vanna-Volga Pricing, pages1867–1874.John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Chichester, UK.

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 31 / 31

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FX Derivatives Product/Platform TrendsSummary

CFD - contract for the difference, 53–57exotic options pedigree, 26local volatility function, 32pivot target forward, 49target forward, 43–47vanunga, 15–21volunga, 15–21

[email protected] FX Derivatives: Model and Product Trends 31 / 31