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Future Grid: The Environment
Ward Jewell, Wichita State University
Judith Cardell, Smith College
Lindsay Anderson, Cornell University
Janet Twomey, Wichita State University
Michael Overcash, Wichita State University
PSERC Future Grid Initiative Webinar Series February 21, 2012
History – Air Pollution Events North America and Western Europe
(not electric energy related)
Donora, Pennsylvania, October 1948 London, December 1952
2
History – Environmental Standards for the US electric energy industry
• Air Pollution Control Act of 1955
• Water Pollution Control Act (Clean Water Act) 1949/72
• Clean Air Act: 1963/67/70/90
3
Existing Environmental Regulations for the US electric energy industry
• Nitrous Oxides (Nox)
• Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
• Particulate Matter (including flyash)
• Discharge of waste into water
4
• Cross -State Air Pollution Rule, July 2011 – Stayed December 30 by US Court of Appeals,
transitioning back to Clean Air Interstate Rule
• Mercury and Air Toxics Rule, December 2011
New Environmental Regulations for the US electric energy industry
5
• Solid Waste Rule, 2011
• Clean Water Act § 316(b), April 20, 2011
– Once through cooling
New Environmental Regulations for the US electric energy industry
6
Future Environmental Challenges for the Electric Energy Industry
1. Mitigation of greenhouse gases
2. Adapting to changing climate
3. Availability of water
7
Mitigation of greenhouse gases Atmospheric CO2
8
Shares of Greenhouse Gases
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency , December 20, 2011, www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/FAQs/?vraag=10&title=Which%2520are%2520the%2520top-20%2520CO2%2520or%2520GHG%2520emitting%2520countries%253F#vraag9
9
US CO2 emissions
Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy,
www.eia.doe.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/ghg_overview.cfm
Coal: 205-225 lb CO2/MBtu Oil: 156-174 lb CO2/MBtu Gas : 117-139 lb CO2/MBtu
10
CO2 limits
Kyoto: 5% below 1990 by 2012 EU: 20% below 1990 by 2020 Canada: 20% below 2006 by 2020 RGGI: 10% below 2009 by 2018 California: 15% below 2005 by 2020 Florida: 2000 levels by 2017
1990 levels by 2025 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050
Illinois: new coal plants must capture carbon 2009-2015: 50%, 2016-2017: 70 %, 2017+: 90 %
IPCC: 50-85% below 2000 by 2050 Obama: 80% below 2000 by 2050 Durban, 2011: no international agreement
11
RGGI Auction: March 2011 $1.89/ ton CO2
Proceeds are invested in “programs that benefit consumers and build a clean energy economy.”
52% improve energy efficiency 11% accelerate the deployment of renewable energy
14% provide energy bill payment assistance 1% other greenhouse gas reduction programs
12
EU Emission Trading Scheme
• Market opened in 2005
• Futures: 16-20 € /metric ton (1000 kg) CO2
= 20-26 $/ton
• Spot market suspended January 2011 after cybertheft of > €30M CO2 allowances
Trading has resumed in most markets
• “at least half the revenue … should be used to fight and adapt to climate change”
• http://ec.europa.eu/clima/faq/ets/auctioning_en.htm
13
Technologies to limit greenhouse gas emissions fuel switching: coal to natural gas
Miaolei Shao, The Effects of Greenhouse Gas Limits on Electric Power System
Dispatch And Operations, Ph.D. Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2008.
14
Questions about hydraulic fracturing for natural gas production.
Shawnee, Oklahoma, earthquake 2011 St. Gregory's University
15
Carbon Sequestration 16
Conservation US T&D Losses
1.34 lb CO2/kWh x 250 x 109 kWh = 335 x 109 lb CO2
Karen Forsten, Tomorrow’s T&D, Public Utilities Fortnightly, December 2010, /www.fortnightly.com/pubs/02012010_TomorrowsTD.pdf
17
Costs ($/MWh) for Conserved Electricity
DCI: Demand Conservation Incentive CTP: Cap-and-Trade Program Anthony Paul, Karen Palmer, and Matt Woerman, Supply Curves for Conserved Electricity, RFF DP 11-11, April 2011 , www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-11-11.pdf
18
Demand response 19
Jesse B. Langston, The OGE Energy 2020 Plan - An Innovative Approach to Meeting Tomorrow’s Energy Challenges. 2011 Frontiers of Power Conference, Stillwater, Oklahoma, October 2011.
Carbon-Neutral Generation: Nuclear
Brian Montopoli , Poll: Support for New Nuclear Plants Drops, CBS News, March 22, 2011, www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20046020-503544.html?tag=latest
20
Renewable Generation
Tax credits and incentives Portfolio standards
Net metering
Biomass
Wind
21
Wind vs. Load
Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse
Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.
22
Solar energy vs. Load clear day
Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse
Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.
Full sun load
solar
23
Operating Reserves
Operating reserve requirements:
5-12% of forecast load
Capacity credits (California ISO)
– Coal, nuclear, natural gas, oil, hydro: 100%
– Solar 89.5%
– Geothermal 83%
– Wind 23-25.2%
24
Example: Wind vs. CO2
Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse
Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.
25
Displacement of fossil generation by 300 MW PV, no CO2 price
Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse
Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.
Complicated by fuel and operating costs, fossil
plant design and ramp rates, and transmission
congestion.
26
Example: changes in costs
Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse
Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.
-$3,780 -$2,567 -$11,312
•PV is paid locational
marginal price.
•Costs are higher with
net metering.
27
Proposed AEP 765 kV Transmission Overlay
$60B: $0.0024 $/kWh if spread over all US kWh American Electric Power , Interstate Transmission Vision for Wind Integration, www.aep.com/about/i765project/docs/WindTransmissionVisionWhitePaper.pdf
New Transmission is Needed
Bulk Energy Storage Battery storage technologies
Lead Acid
Sodium Sulphur
Zinc Bromine
Vanadium Redox
29
Added Cost of Energy
Piyasak Poonpun, Ward Jewell, “Analysis of the Cost per Kilowatt Hour to Store Electricity.”
IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Volume 23, Issue 2, June 2008, Page(s:529 – 534.
Application: T&D, 2 cycles/day, 250 days/year
Battery costs: 2007 manufacturers’ estimates
30
Electric Energy Storage
Zhouxing Hu, Ward T. Jewell, Optimal Power Flow Analysis of Energy Storage for Congestion Relief, Emissions Reduction, and Cost Savings, 2011 Power Systems Conference and Exhibition, Phoenix, March 2011.
31
Plug Electric Vehicles 32
Electric Vehicles
Chevrolet Volt, US average generation mix CO2 emissions
– 16 kWh electric runs 40 miles • 16 kWh x $0.10/kWh = $1.60 • $1.60 / 40 miles = $0.04 / mile • 1.30 lb CO2/kWh x 16 kWh = 21 lb CO2
– 30 mpg gasoline engine • 40 miles / 30 mpg = 1.3 gallons • 1.3 gallons x $3.50/gallon = $4.55 • $4.55 / 40 miles = $0.11 / mile • 19.4 lb CO2/gallon x 1.3 gallon = 25 lb CO2
33
Source: Renault, www.renault.com/FR/CAPECO2/VEHICULE-ELECTRIQUE/Pages/vehicule-electrique.aspx
New Challenge for the Electric Energy Industry: Electric Vehicle Charging
34
Adapting to changing climate 35
Regional Climate Change Models: Heat
Anthony Arguez, “Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate.” NOAA National Climatic Data Center
36
Higher average temperature: air and ocean More extreme highs and lows
Now: 394 ppm
B1: low emissions A1B: average emissions
A2: high emissions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml
37
Anthony Arguez, “Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate.” NOAA National Climatic Data Center
Climate Change Models: Hurricanes 38
Changing precipitation patterns
National Geographic, ngm.nationalgeographic.com/climateconnections/climate-map
39
Climate Change Models: Precipitation Intensity
Anthony Arguez, “Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate.” NOAA National Climatic Data Center
40
More severe weather and extreme weather patterns
increased frequency, severity and duration
41
Forecast sea level rise
Martin Vermeer, Stefan Rahmstorf, Global sea level linked to global temperature, PNAS Early Edition, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0907765106
42
Rising sea levels/ land subsidence
http://globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Eastern_USA_Sea_Level_Risks_png
43
Guido Franco and Alan H. Sanstad, Climate Change and Electricity Demand In California,
California Climate Change Center , CEC-500-2005-201-SF , February 2006
California Independent System Operator
Changes to energy and peak load consumption patterns
44
Reduced thermal ratings 45
Effects on hydroelectric production
• underproduction
• overproduction
– spilling
• threats to dams
• threats to fish
46
Changing wind and sunlight patterns
BCLM
Charles Curry, “Projected Changes in Surface Winds over Southern BC-Northern Washington Using a Regional Climate Model,” Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis
47
Effects on wind and solar energy • Investments in renewables may be threatened
as resources change
• severe weather may damage renewable generators
48
Changing vegetation 49
Changing vegetation 50
Availability of Water Forecast changes in precipitation
Anthony Arguez, “Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate.” NOAA National Climatic Data Center
51
World Resources Institute - PAGE, 2000, earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.php?map_select=265&theme=2
Water affects population migration, changes electric loading.
Water supply, 2025
52
US freshwater consumption by sector
53
Energy Demands on Water Resources. Report to Congress on the Interdependency of Energy and Water. U.S. Department of Energy (December, 2006).
Water consumption for electricity 10-1000 gallons/MWhe
including geothermal and solar thermal
Energy Demands on Water Resources. Report to Congress on the Interdependency of Energy and Water. U.S. Department of Energy (December, 2006).
54
Water consumption
for Fuel Extraction,
Processing, Storage
and Transport
Energy Demands on Water Resources. Report to Congress on the Interdependency of Energy and Water. U.S. Department of Energy (December, 2006).
irrigation
Enhanced oil recovery
Coal gasification
Gas storage in salt cavern
55
Life Cycle Analysis
Cohen Hubal, E. and M. Overcash. Net waste reduction analysis applied to air pollution control technologies, J. Air&Waste Mgmt Assoc. 43(11):1449-1454, 1993.
56
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
TOTAL MASS CONTROLLED IN AIR EMISSION (lb/hr)
TO
TA
L M
AS
S O
F W
AS
TE
PR
OD
UC
ED
(lb
/hr)
3
1, 2
10, 11
9
8, 7
6
4, 5
14 13
12
Max Control
1: FF 99.7%
2: ESP 99.9%
3: FF & ESP
4: Wet FGD & FF
5: Wet FGD & ESP
6: Wet FGD, FF & ESP
7: LSD & FF
8: LSD & ESP
9: LSD, ESP & FF
10: DSI & FF
11: DSI & ESP
12: SCR, FGD & ESP
13: SCR, FGD & FF
14: SCR, FGD, ESP & FF
Life Cycle Analysis: CO2 emissions
Electricity from Renewable Resources: Status, Prospects, and Impediments, National Academy of Sciences, 2010, http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12619
57
Three significant environmental concerns:
• Mitigating greenhouse gases • includes transportation GHGs
• Adapting to changing climate
• Availability of water.
Planning for these should:
• Consider life cycle costs and benefits
• Optimize • long-term environmental benefits
• electric system reliability
• costs of implementation.
Conclusions
Issues are not intrinsic to markets,
so new regulations are appropriate
Issues, technologies, and regulations
Interact and at times conflict.
Potential costs must be balanced against the benefits of improving, or the costs of not improving, the environment.
Conclusions