FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management Consultants Brian Brader Alister Wilson

FUTURE GENERATIONin association with Waverley Management Consultants

Brian BraderAlister Wilson

Strategic Futures Coaching

National Council for Higher Education

Valletta, Malta

27th July 2007

[email protected]

Mob: +44(0)7786 180923

http://www.sigmascan.org/

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Admin. issues

Emergencies Facilities Phones

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AGENDA

9.30 What is strategic futures analysis? 10.00 Introduction to scenario planning 10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s

driving change in higher education? 11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties

for the future of higher education 11.30 Coffee

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AGENDA cont’d 11.45 Group activity: creating

scenarios 12.30 LUNCH 13.15 Working with scenarios 14.00 The scenario toolkit 14.15 Closing discussion 14.30 Close

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What is Strategic Futures Analysis?

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Characteristics

Structured, evidence-based process Wide range of analytical tools Resilient and innovative strategies Neutral space for challenge Encourages broader dialogue

…….resilient and innovative strategy.resilient and innovative strategy

Resilient and innovative strategic plansResilient and innovative strategic plans

Future a Future a ““Safe place” forSafe place” for

challengingchallengingstrategicstrategic

conversationconversation

Prioritisation for Prioritisation for business business

intelligence,intelligence,

Contingency Contingency trigger pointstrigger points

Evidence and Analysis to…..Evidence and Analysis to…..

Test strategic assumptionsTest strategic assumptions

ID of priorityID of priorityuncertaintiesuncertainties

Core analysisCore analysison certaintieson certainties

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Horizon scanning is……Horizon scanning is……

Looking ahead Looking ahead – beyond usual timescalesLooking acrossLooking across – beyond usual sourcesSeeing things - you don’t normally see

Beyond a Beyond a single futuresingle future

totoImplications Implications for today’s for today’s decisionsdecisions

How to get relevant evidence (1)

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FUTURE GENERATIONHow to get relevant evidence (2)

Drivers of change:

Social Technological Economic Environmental Political

FUTURE GENERATIONHow to get relevant evidence (3)

V

Importance

(visibility)

Time

the current and near future. Many of the drivers shaping the near future are already locked into place and are visible - even if we sometimes still have to make sense of them

Horizon 1:

looking towards a further out future. Current trends are beginning to shape it, but its exact form is not yet clear. We have to look harder to find the signals - but trends are beginning to emerge

Horizon 2:

the distant future. There are no discernable patterns and it is very difficult separate signals from background noise.

Horizon 3:

The lens of now

The journey Purpose and context Senior sponsor Gathering evidence Analysis Communication Decision support

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Combatting short-termism

In order to combat the short-term nature of the political cycle, there is a need for horizon scanning to be embedded into the policy making process

UK House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee 2006

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The UK Horizon Scanning Centre - Aims

Strategic context Synergy Capacity building WIST

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UK Horizon Scanning Centre – Products

Sigma & Delta scans Projects (S&T trends, ATF, Identity

management) Strategic Futures Coaching Strategic Futures Networking (FAN Club)

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Analytical toolkit Systems mapping Scenarios Wind-tunnelling Force field analysis

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Be realistic…

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Questions?

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AGENDA

9.30 What is strategic futures analysis?

10.00 Introduction to scenario planning

10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education?

11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education

11.30 Coffee

Stories that describe how the world might look in the future what’s different from today what we need to do to be successful

Based on an analysis of what’s driving change

Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated

Not predictions or forecasts

Help decision makers imagine and manage the future better identify what’s in their control identify what isn’t identify what needs to change to ensure future success

Simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world

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Scenarios…?

Sector EnvironmentSector Environment

internal

environment

Contextual EnvironmentContextual Environment

Driving Forces

Driving Forces

Technological

Economic

Environmental

Political

Societal

Building Scenarios…?

Agree purpose,outcomes and scale


Identify participantsIdentify participants

Interviews andnatural agendaInterviews andnatural agenda

Identify importantchange drivers


Identify critical uncertaintiesand predetermined elements


Define the scenariospace


Outline the scenarionarratives


Detail the scenarionarratives


Communicate thescenarios


Pre-workshopPre-workshop

WorkshopWorkshop

Post workshopPost workshop

Desk

research em

erging tren

ds and issues

Desk

research em

erging tren

ds and issues



Identify participantsIdentify participants

Interviews andnatural agendaInterviews andnatural agenda













Pre-workshopPre-workshop

WorkshopWorkshop

Post workshopPost workshop

Desk

research em

erging tren

ds and issues

Desk

research em

erging tren

ds and issues

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AGENDA

9.30 What is strategic futures analysis?

10.00 Introduction to scenario planning

10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education?

11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education

11.30 Coffee

Sources… Leadership Foundation scenario workshops Strategic Priorities for the UK (PMSU) Long Term Opportunities and Challenges for the UK

(HMT) The Futures Project (Scottish Executive) Empirical observation

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An empowered ageing

population…and an ageing crisis

Under 20s declining in the UK

Rising expectatio

ns

Rising attainment

Emergence of the ethical economyMore single

households

Global economic migration

Societal

…and increasing

in developing economies

A widening gender gap

Mobile computing

Lots of informatio

n

Wireless cities

Technological Changing work and work places

Changing decision making

Changing business modelsRise of

the technologi

cally superior learner

Skype

BlogsYou Tube

AIM

Second Life

MySpace

The economics

of scarcity or of

plenty?

Mobile investment

Globalisation

Labour mobility

Increasing value of knowledge

Importance of soft skills

China

Open source and distribute

d manufactur

ing

Economic

End of Doha?

…and AmericaRising

dependency ratio Slow or

rapid transition

to retirement

Co-opetition

Oil depletion Water Wars

Carbon neutral

consumption

Pressure to halt global warming

Growth within

environmental

limits?

Quest for sustainabi

lity

Environmental

Carbon credits?

Right to mobility?

Biofuels?

Evolution of the EU

Contract between state and citizen

e-Democracy

Self improving public services

Nanny state or light touch?

Single Issue

everything

Policy divergence

since devolution

Rise of non state actors

Step change in customer care

Political

Culture change

Public service

reform and competitiv

eness

Competing demands

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FINAL DISCUSSION

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Understanding context of strategic futures analysis

Gathering evidence Analysis tools Using the output to improve strategy

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Building scenarios

Key drivers of change Uncertainties Select key variables Write the stories

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Using scenarios

Create dialogue Identify research goals Identify choices Define strategy

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Continue the futures journey!Resources:

Sigma scan: www.sigmascan.org

Delta scan: www.deltascan.org

UK Horizon scanning centre :

www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/index.html

Strategic futures analysis tool-kit :

www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/Good_Practice/Toolkit/Toolkit.html

UK Department for Transport scenario planning tool-kit (produced by Waverley Management consultants):

www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/scienceresearch/futures/secsceniss/?version=1

Documents

FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management Consultants Brian Brader Alister Wilson