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LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
CARA Think Tank meeting ldquoFuture fuels for heavy duty vehiclesrdquo
IFP Energies Nouvelles ∙ Solaize (Lyon) ∙ 6 March 2019
laquoFuture Fuel for Road Freightraquo Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison
of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
Patrick R Schmidt ∙ Werner Weindorf ∙ LBST ∙ Munich
Jean-Christophe Lanoix ∙ Henri Bittel ∙ Hinicio ∙ ParisBrussels
2019-03-06 middot FINAL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik I Introduction to the study and context
II Setting the scene
III Fuels amp infrastructures (well-to-tank)
IV Vehicle amp drivetrains (tank-to-wheel)
V Synthesis (well-to-wheel)
VI Recommendations for deployment
Structure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
I Introduction
The study partners
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
laquoTruck CO2raquo study ndash A three partnerslsquo joint effort
Sponsor
Sounding Board
Regulatory
Strategy
Fuels amp drives
Techno-economics
Environment
4
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Strategic consultants specialized in sustainable energy and mobility
Long experience with policy makers public entities and industry
Multidisciplinary team approach engineers economists energy and transport policy experts
Long working relationship between our two cabinets with more than 30 joint assignments
LBST and HINICIO joined forces for this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
5
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
II Setting the scene
Understanding todaylsquos picture
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Today the transport of goods in France is in majority
done by road
7
Road 88
Train 99 Boat 21
Breakdown of ton-km for terrestrial goods transport [ton-km 2016]
2018
-09-
25
Source Chiffres cleacutes du transport Edition 2018 Commissariat
geacuteneacuteral au deacuteveloppement durable Mars 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Heavy duty vehicles are the elephant in the room
8
Passenger cars gasoline
13
Passenger cars diesel
43
LDV gasoline 2
LDV diesel 19
HDV diesel 22
2-wheelers 1
CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France [ - 2014]
2018
-09-
25
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of registered vehicles in France
Passenger vehicles LDV HDV
Source 1 CITEPA Inventaire des eacutemissions de polluants atmospheacuteriques et de gaz agrave
effet de serre en France April 2016 Source 2 Reacutepertoire statistique des veacutehicules routiers (RSVERO) Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG
contributors
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
lt25 km From25 to49 km
From50 to99 km
From100 to149 km
From150 to199 km
From200 to299 km
From300 kmto 399
km
From400 kmto 499
km
From500 to999 km
gt1000km
Th
ou
san
d t
on
-km
Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]
Rigid Truck Tractor
2018
-09-
25
Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because
Tractors transport most goods
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)
Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik I Introduction to the study and context
II Setting the scene
III Fuels amp infrastructures (well-to-tank)
IV Vehicle amp drivetrains (tank-to-wheel)
V Synthesis (well-to-wheel)
VI Recommendations for deployment
Structure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
I Introduction
The study partners
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
laquoTruck CO2raquo study ndash A three partnerslsquo joint effort
Sponsor
Sounding Board
Regulatory
Strategy
Fuels amp drives
Techno-economics
Environment
4
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Strategic consultants specialized in sustainable energy and mobility
Long experience with policy makers public entities and industry
Multidisciplinary team approach engineers economists energy and transport policy experts
Long working relationship between our two cabinets with more than 30 joint assignments
LBST and HINICIO joined forces for this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
5
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
II Setting the scene
Understanding todaylsquos picture
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Today the transport of goods in France is in majority
done by road
7
Road 88
Train 99 Boat 21
Breakdown of ton-km for terrestrial goods transport [ton-km 2016]
2018
-09-
25
Source Chiffres cleacutes du transport Edition 2018 Commissariat
geacuteneacuteral au deacuteveloppement durable Mars 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Heavy duty vehicles are the elephant in the room
8
Passenger cars gasoline
13
Passenger cars diesel
43
LDV gasoline 2
LDV diesel 19
HDV diesel 22
2-wheelers 1
CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France [ - 2014]
2018
-09-
25
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of registered vehicles in France
Passenger vehicles LDV HDV
Source 1 CITEPA Inventaire des eacutemissions de polluants atmospheacuteriques et de gaz agrave
effet de serre en France April 2016 Source 2 Reacutepertoire statistique des veacutehicules routiers (RSVERO) Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG
contributors
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
lt25 km From25 to49 km
From50 to99 km
From100 to149 km
From150 to199 km
From200 to299 km
From300 kmto 399
km
From400 kmto 499
km
From500 to999 km
gt1000km
Th
ou
san
d t
on
-km
Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]
Rigid Truck Tractor
2018
-09-
25
Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because
Tractors transport most goods
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)
Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
I Introduction
The study partners
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
laquoTruck CO2raquo study ndash A three partnerslsquo joint effort
Sponsor
Sounding Board
Regulatory
Strategy
Fuels amp drives
Techno-economics
Environment
4
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Strategic consultants specialized in sustainable energy and mobility
Long experience with policy makers public entities and industry
Multidisciplinary team approach engineers economists energy and transport policy experts
Long working relationship between our two cabinets with more than 30 joint assignments
LBST and HINICIO joined forces for this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
5
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
II Setting the scene
Understanding todaylsquos picture
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Today the transport of goods in France is in majority
done by road
7
Road 88
Train 99 Boat 21
Breakdown of ton-km for terrestrial goods transport [ton-km 2016]
2018
-09-
25
Source Chiffres cleacutes du transport Edition 2018 Commissariat
geacuteneacuteral au deacuteveloppement durable Mars 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Heavy duty vehicles are the elephant in the room
8
Passenger cars gasoline
13
Passenger cars diesel
43
LDV gasoline 2
LDV diesel 19
HDV diesel 22
2-wheelers 1
CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France [ - 2014]
2018
-09-
25
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of registered vehicles in France
Passenger vehicles LDV HDV
Source 1 CITEPA Inventaire des eacutemissions de polluants atmospheacuteriques et de gaz agrave
effet de serre en France April 2016 Source 2 Reacutepertoire statistique des veacutehicules routiers (RSVERO) Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG
contributors
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
lt25 km From25 to49 km
From50 to99 km
From100 to149 km
From150 to199 km
From200 to299 km
From300 kmto 399
km
From400 kmto 499
km
From500 to999 km
gt1000km
Th
ou
san
d t
on
-km
Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]
Rigid Truck Tractor
2018
-09-
25
Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because
Tractors transport most goods
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)
Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
laquoTruck CO2raquo study ndash A three partnerslsquo joint effort
Sponsor
Sounding Board
Regulatory
Strategy
Fuels amp drives
Techno-economics
Environment
4
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Strategic consultants specialized in sustainable energy and mobility
Long experience with policy makers public entities and industry
Multidisciplinary team approach engineers economists energy and transport policy experts
Long working relationship between our two cabinets with more than 30 joint assignments
LBST and HINICIO joined forces for this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
5
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
II Setting the scene
Understanding todaylsquos picture
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Today the transport of goods in France is in majority
done by road
7
Road 88
Train 99 Boat 21
Breakdown of ton-km for terrestrial goods transport [ton-km 2016]
2018
-09-
25
Source Chiffres cleacutes du transport Edition 2018 Commissariat
geacuteneacuteral au deacuteveloppement durable Mars 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Heavy duty vehicles are the elephant in the room
8
Passenger cars gasoline
13
Passenger cars diesel
43
LDV gasoline 2
LDV diesel 19
HDV diesel 22
2-wheelers 1
CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France [ - 2014]
2018
-09-
25
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of registered vehicles in France
Passenger vehicles LDV HDV
Source 1 CITEPA Inventaire des eacutemissions de polluants atmospheacuteriques et de gaz agrave
effet de serre en France April 2016 Source 2 Reacutepertoire statistique des veacutehicules routiers (RSVERO) Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG
contributors
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
lt25 km From25 to49 km
From50 to99 km
From100 to149 km
From150 to199 km
From200 to299 km
From300 kmto 399
km
From400 kmto 499
km
From500 to999 km
gt1000km
Th
ou
san
d t
on
-km
Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]
Rigid Truck Tractor
2018
-09-
25
Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because
Tractors transport most goods
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)
Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Strategic consultants specialized in sustainable energy and mobility
Long experience with policy makers public entities and industry
Multidisciplinary team approach engineers economists energy and transport policy experts
Long working relationship between our two cabinets with more than 30 joint assignments
LBST and HINICIO joined forces for this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
5
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
II Setting the scene
Understanding todaylsquos picture
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Today the transport of goods in France is in majority
done by road
7
Road 88
Train 99 Boat 21
Breakdown of ton-km for terrestrial goods transport [ton-km 2016]
2018
-09-
25
Source Chiffres cleacutes du transport Edition 2018 Commissariat
geacuteneacuteral au deacuteveloppement durable Mars 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Heavy duty vehicles are the elephant in the room
8
Passenger cars gasoline
13
Passenger cars diesel
43
LDV gasoline 2
LDV diesel 19
HDV diesel 22
2-wheelers 1
CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France [ - 2014]
2018
-09-
25
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of registered vehicles in France
Passenger vehicles LDV HDV
Source 1 CITEPA Inventaire des eacutemissions de polluants atmospheacuteriques et de gaz agrave
effet de serre en France April 2016 Source 2 Reacutepertoire statistique des veacutehicules routiers (RSVERO) Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG
contributors
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
lt25 km From25 to49 km
From50 to99 km
From100 to149 km
From150 to199 km
From200 to299 km
From300 kmto 399
km
From400 kmto 499
km
From500 to999 km
gt1000km
Th
ou
san
d t
on
-km
Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]
Rigid Truck Tractor
2018
-09-
25
Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because
Tractors transport most goods
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)
Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
II Setting the scene
Understanding todaylsquos picture
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Today the transport of goods in France is in majority
done by road
7
Road 88
Train 99 Boat 21
Breakdown of ton-km for terrestrial goods transport [ton-km 2016]
2018
-09-
25
Source Chiffres cleacutes du transport Edition 2018 Commissariat
geacuteneacuteral au deacuteveloppement durable Mars 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Heavy duty vehicles are the elephant in the room
8
Passenger cars gasoline
13
Passenger cars diesel
43
LDV gasoline 2
LDV diesel 19
HDV diesel 22
2-wheelers 1
CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France [ - 2014]
2018
-09-
25
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of registered vehicles in France
Passenger vehicles LDV HDV
Source 1 CITEPA Inventaire des eacutemissions de polluants atmospheacuteriques et de gaz agrave
effet de serre en France April 2016 Source 2 Reacutepertoire statistique des veacutehicules routiers (RSVERO) Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG
contributors
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
lt25 km From25 to49 km
From50 to99 km
From100 to149 km
From150 to199 km
From200 to299 km
From300 kmto 399
km
From400 kmto 499
km
From500 to999 km
gt1000km
Th
ou
san
d t
on
-km
Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]
Rigid Truck Tractor
2018
-09-
25
Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because
Tractors transport most goods
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)
Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Today the transport of goods in France is in majority
done by road
7
Road 88
Train 99 Boat 21
Breakdown of ton-km for terrestrial goods transport [ton-km 2016]
2018
-09-
25
Source Chiffres cleacutes du transport Edition 2018 Commissariat
geacuteneacuteral au deacuteveloppement durable Mars 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Heavy duty vehicles are the elephant in the room
8
Passenger cars gasoline
13
Passenger cars diesel
43
LDV gasoline 2
LDV diesel 19
HDV diesel 22
2-wheelers 1
CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France [ - 2014]
2018
-09-
25
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of registered vehicles in France
Passenger vehicles LDV HDV
Source 1 CITEPA Inventaire des eacutemissions de polluants atmospheacuteriques et de gaz agrave
effet de serre en France April 2016 Source 2 Reacutepertoire statistique des veacutehicules routiers (RSVERO) Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG
contributors
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
lt25 km From25 to49 km
From50 to99 km
From100 to149 km
From150 to199 km
From200 to299 km
From300 kmto 399
km
From400 kmto 499
km
From500 to999 km
gt1000km
Th
ou
san
d t
on
-km
Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]
Rigid Truck Tractor
2018
-09-
25
Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because
Tractors transport most goods
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)
Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Heavy duty vehicles are the elephant in the room
8
Passenger cars gasoline
13
Passenger cars diesel
43
LDV gasoline 2
LDV diesel 19
HDV diesel 22
2-wheelers 1
CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France [ - 2014]
2018
-09-
25
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of registered vehicles in France
Passenger vehicles LDV HDV
Source 1 CITEPA Inventaire des eacutemissions de polluants atmospheacuteriques et de gaz agrave
effet de serre en France April 2016 Source 2 Reacutepertoire statistique des veacutehicules routiers (RSVERO) Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG
contributors
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
lt25 km From25 to49 km
From50 to99 km
From100 to149 km
From150 to199 km
From200 to299 km
From300 kmto 399
km
From400 kmto 499
km
From500 to999 km
gt1000km
Th
ou
san
d t
on
-km
Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]
Rigid Truck Tractor
2018
-09-
25
Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because
Tractors transport most goods
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)
Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG
contributors
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
lt25 km From25 to49 km
From50 to99 km
From100 to149 km
From150 to199 km
From200 to299 km
From300 kmto 399
km
From400 kmto 499
km
From500 to999 km
gt1000km
Th
ou
san
d t
on
-km
Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]
Rigid Truck Tractor
2018
-09-
25
Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because
Tractors transport most goods
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)
Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la
transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient
the range of fuel consumption has increased
10
146 101 74
46
684
581
464
367
92
271
426
567
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte
longue distance 2017 April 2018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fu
el
con
sum
pti
on
(l
die
sel
(10
0 k
m))
MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX
MAN TGS 18440 FLS LX
MAN TGX 18480 FLS
MAN 18520 FLS XLX
Scania R450 LA Highline
Scania R480 LA Highline
Scania R490 LA Highline
Scania R 580 LA Topline
Scania R 730 LA Topline
Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter
Mercedes Axor 1843 LS
Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1855 LS Megaspace
Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace
DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab
Average
Utilization 80
LBS
T
20
18
-10
-15
Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no
action is undertaken
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018
Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition
eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018
What impact on GHG emissions from
until 2030 if nothing is done
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study focus
Heavy duty
vehicles
City buses
Coaches
Rigid trucks
36t lt x lt 60t
61t lt x lt 109t
110t lt x lt 190t
191t lt x lt 210t
211t lt x lt 260t
gt261t
Tractors
Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study
12
Classification SDES
Long-haul tractors because
Small fleet compared to other vehicles
The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances
The most GHG contributor in transport
Study objective
Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors
Short-term
ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors
Mid to long-term
ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs
ndash the RED 2
ndash Eurovignette
Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-
term will drive clean drivetrains
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
13
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
05
1
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sm
oke
(1
m)
gk
Wh
Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles
CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)
HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)
Smoke (1m)
Current regulation
Euro emissions standards
Big benefit on local pollution
No impact on GHG emissions
Upcoming regulation
CO2 emission monitoring of trucks
New emissions standards for HDVs
-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)
5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025
20 by 2030
OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025
14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing
Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Renewable Energy Directive 2
14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030
Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels
- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- 65 GHG for biofuels
The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)
will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
15
European targets
Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by
delegated act as of writing of this study
For production installations starting their operations after 2021
Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting
their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Should take into account GHG emissions
Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road
Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland
The Eurovignette directive aims at
Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing
Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles
The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto
the market as of 2022-23
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
16
What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation
The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the
Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of
implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
17
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
RE Renewable Electricity
Fuel Pathway Drivetrain
Ref
eren
ce
Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator
ICE CNG LNG from natural gas
EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite
compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane
reforming FCEV
Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
Low
C Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE
Ren
ewab
le
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
ICE
Diesel via power-to-liquid
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining
Methane via power-to-CH4
(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Methane via power-to-CH4
(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction
Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV
Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis
ASIF priority for mobility measure
ndash Avoid (sufficiency)
ndash Shift (modal split)
ndash Improve (efficiency)
ndash Fuel (renewable energy)
Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation
Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels
ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)
ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)
ndash New nuclear capacity
ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)
ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)
ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)
Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)
Our study approach ndash What we did and what not
18
New capacities to cater
new electricity demands
from transport thus
avoiding competition in
stationary sector and no
lsquocarbon leakagersquo
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Focus efficiency + renewables
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
III Fuels amp Infrastructures
well-to-tank
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)
20
LCOE 2017
90 ctkWh
LCOE 2017
63 ctkWh
New UK feed-in tariff
New France Existing France
Nuclear power plants
(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)
Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary
Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study
Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
21
2020 2030
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid
plant
PV Wind
(onshore)
Hybrid plant
CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -
OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -
Equiv full
load period
heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465
PVwind
share
- - 5050 - - 5050
PVwind
overlap
- - 5 - - 5
Total ctkWh 48 42
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019
Fuel supply chain | Diesel
22
Refinery
DIESEL
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Diesel
Die
sel
fro
m c
rud
e o
il
Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +
oil pipeline 500 km
OIL
Crude Oil
Diesel
Diesel
PtL
Die
sel
French
nucl
ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri
butio
n
H2 storage Water electrolysis
Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
PtL
Die
sel
Fr
ench
RE
Renewable electricity (France domestic)
Production in MENA
Production in France
PtL
Die
sel
M
EN
A
Power line
Water electrolysis
Refinery Fischer-Tropsch
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
H2 storage
Maritime transport
3400 km
Diesel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study
Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030
CAPEX
ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market
ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]
Water electrolysis
23 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
ap
aci
ty (
MW
e) World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CA
PEX
(euro
kW
e)
100 MWe
5 MWe
LBST
20
18
-11
-15
This study
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe
electrolysis plant
Capacity
ndash 2020 197 MWPtL
ndash 2030 237 MWPtL
Based on data in
ndash [Becker et al 2012]
ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]
Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)
24
Fischer-Tropsch plant
CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030
Burner 3407 4100
FT reactor 2123 2555
RWGS 406 458
PSA 508 579
Distillation 178 203
Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861
Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041
Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285
Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533
C5C6 isomerization 224 255
Total installed cost 10992 12869
Total direct costs 12311 14413
Engineering amp design 1600 1874
Construction 1723 2018
Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297
Project contingency 1847 2162
Total indirect costs 6278 7351
CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030
Electrolysis
(PEM)
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) synthesis
Hydrocracking
Isomerisation
Distillation
H2
14972 kWh
Syncrude
H2
Reverse Water
Gas Shift (RWGS)
Water 0246 kg
CO
CO2
Electricity
20785 kWh
Electricity
00283 kWh
CO2 capture amp
liquefaction
Electricity
01555 kWh
CO2 from air 0341 kg
CO2 storage
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
Water
H2
Heat 03259 kWh
(225degC)
H2
sto
rag
e
25
1 kWh
Water Gases
Koumlnig et al 2015
Electricity
00453 kWh
CO2 0341 kg
Heat
Boiler for RWGS
(T = 900degC)
LBS
T 2
018
-11-
22
H2
Heat 05968 kWh
(ge95degC)
Heat 01637 kWh
(60degC)
Heat
01072 kWh
PtL = 41
CO2 0086 kg
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
- +
+ +
Image Climeworks 2018
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4
26
LNG station
LNG dispenser
LNG
L NG L NG L NG
CH4 liquefaction
at LNG station
LNG
LNG storage
CNG station
CH4 compression at CNG station
CNG dispenser
NG storage
NG import pipeline 2400 km
NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4 (
imp
ort
fro
m M
EN
A)
Same system setup for MENA
as for domestic production in France
Power line
H2 storage Electrolyse
Methanation
Electricity from RE
(France domestic)
Meth
ane v
ia P
tCH
4
(Fra
nce
do
mest
ic)
CGH2
CO2
Direct Air Capture
(DAC) CO2 liquefaction
amp storage
LBST 2019-03-06
France domestic
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)
27
Hyd
rog
en f
rom
NG
H2 storage
H2
H2 refuelling station
NG distribution
pipeline 500 km
EU natural gas (NG)
mix
NG transport
pipeline 4000 km
CGH2
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Steam methane
reformer (SMR)
H2 dispenser
Hyd
rog
en v
ia P
tH2
H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser
H2
Power line
RE mix (windsolar)
France
CGH2
H2 refuelling station
LBS
T
2018
-10-
30
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)
Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)
Catenary infrastructure
28
Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique
January 2017
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der
Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur
Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)
29
Electricity storage
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m g
rid
mix
Fra
nce
fo
r C
EV
French grid mix
Transmission
Distri
butio
n
Distribution
CEV
LBS
T
2018
-11-
06
+ - - -
+ + +
-
Catenary
Ele
ctri
city
fro
m R
E f
or
CEV
RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base
Truck home base
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030
Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base
ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV
ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]
Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030
Catenary infrastructure
30
Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)
CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250
billion euro 035 159
Required power electricity storage GW - 26
CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336
eurokWe 1451 672
billion euro - 175
CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334
LBS
T
2018
-12-
07
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2020
31
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurol
die
sel e
q)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Fuel specific full costs 2030
32
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains
tank-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer
Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t
Payload 27 t
Lifetime 9 yr
Mileage 114100 kma
Truck | Basic assumptions
34
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction
Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road
Performance
ndash 350 kWe electric motor
ndash 200 kWhe battery
ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary
Invest [Moultak et al 2017]
ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck
ndash 2030 136000 eurotruck
Home base charger (overnight)
ndash 50 kW
ndash 31000 eurotruck
Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)
35
Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr
den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018
Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study
Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)
36
Unit ESORO
(Hyundai)
Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota
(alpha)
This study
2020
Region - CH USA EU USA EU
Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40
Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77
Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70
Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050
Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733
MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88
kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245
Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020
Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)
Based on [Moultak et al 2017]
LBS
T
2018
-12-
18
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions
37
2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073
CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070
LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079
FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000
CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000
2030 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG
MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm
Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055
CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055
LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061
FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000
CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
LBS
T
2018
-11-
19
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
-26
-56
-14
-16
Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]
Efficiency package according
to [Moultak et al 2017]
eg aerodynamic
improvements low rolling-
resistant tires
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Truck | CAPEX assumptions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
38
y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -
3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000
y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080
Rsup2 = 09990950
y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350
Rsup2 = 09994
y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000
Rsup2 = 099925
y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980
Rsup2 = 0989905
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
eurot
ruck
Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG
FCEV CEV
LBST
20
18-
11-
07
Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions
Truck | Cost assumptions
39
CAPEX
(euro)
OampM
(eurokm)
Overhead
insurance
eurokm)
Driver Salary
amp expenses
(eurokm)
Road toll amp
axle taxes
(eurokm)
2020
Diesel 116000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 154000
LNG Otto cycle 142000
LNG HPDI 167000
FCEV 186000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000
2030
Diesel 129000
0105 0195 0365+0086 0089
CNG Otto cycle 146000
LNG Otto cycle 138000
LNG HPDI 162000
FCEV 145000
CEV incl 200 kWh battery 110 eurokWh 136000
LBS
T
2018
-11-
26
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
IV Synthesis
well-to-wheel
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMR onsiteFrench gridmix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g C
O2
eq
km
)
Tank-to-wheel
Well-to-tank
2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral
LBST
20
18
-11
-19
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030
41
GHG reduction gt90 in general
gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion
13 mgkm
radioactive waste
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
42
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
000
010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
100
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Fue
l co
sts
(eurok
m)
Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG
Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)
Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Distribution of final fuel via truck
Large-scale gas storage including compressor
CH4 or H2 pipeline grid
Synthesis
CO2 purification amp storage
H2 storage including compressor
H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU
H2 production
Electricity including transport amp distribution
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2030
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
43
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
59
15 16
34
6360
35
52
35
55
38 36
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2020
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2020
44
Fuel costs comprise
primary energy (incl
fuel conversion
efficiency) and
depreciation of the
conversion plant
Salary overhead
insurance and road
toll are the same for
all pathways
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Crude oil price
60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
36 7 8
26
3531
17
26
16
29
1916
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
200
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Tru
ckin
g co
sts
(eurok
m)
Road tolls and axle taxes
Fuel and Adblue costs
Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)
Overhead insurances
Long distance travelling expenses
Salary vehicle driver
2030
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Zero emission
Well-to-wheel full costs 2030
45
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Total cost of ownership
(TCO) of alternative
options are converging
by 2030 (full-scale
deployment of each
option provided)
Crude oil prices (US$bbl)
120 (15 year max)
72 [IEA 2018 SDS]
40 (15 year min)
CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France
Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)
Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles
Development of vehicle stock
47
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Development of vehicle stock
(long-haul total)
144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229
Legacy vehicles operated with
Diesel from crude oil
143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091
of vehicles going out because of
age (9 years avrg)
16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505
of vehicles going in
(replacement + growth)
16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570
Share of alternative vehicles in
new vehicles (ceteris paribus
CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)
7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98
of alternative fuel-powered new
vehicles
1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236
Stock of alternative fuel-powered
vehicles
1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137
LBS
T
2018
-12-
20
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Ele
ctri
city
de
man
d (
TWh
yr)
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
CGH2 via PtG for FCEV
Electricity for CEV
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains
Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)
48
~15 of electricity
generation in France
in 2017 (529 TWh)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Only half of RE power
capacities needed
versus PtCH4 PtL
Only 14th of RE power
plant capacities needed
compared to PtCH4 PtL
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2e
qy
r)
Until 2019
Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance
Diesel via PtLRenewable France
Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA
CNG via PtGRenewable France
CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB
ST 2
01
8-1
2-2
0
Past Future
Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks
ndash decreasing annual mileage and
ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption
GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption
ndash introduction of renewable fuels
Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses
ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030
ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only
ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
49
Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo
GHG emissions reduced by ~80
98 of new trucks equipped with
alternative fuelspowertrains
25 is legacy stock (Diesel)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations
LBST
201
8-1
2-20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Spe
cifi
c in
vest
me
nt
PtX
pla
nt
(eurok
Wfi
nal
fu
el)
Specific investment PtX plant
Diesel via PtL Nuclear France
Diesel via PtL Renewable France
Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA
CNG via PtG Renewable France
CNG via PtG Renewable MENA
LNG via PtG Renewable France
LNG via PtG Renewable MENA
FCEV
LBST
201
8-1
2-12
The cumulated investments comprise the following elements
ndash Renewable power plants
ndash PtX production plants
ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution
ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)
Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one
Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime
The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
50
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral
SMRonsite
Frenchgrid mix
Francedomestic
Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
MENA Francedomestic
Francedomestic
Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV
PtL dieselICE
PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV
ElectricityCEV
Reference Nuclear Renewable
Cu
mu
lati
ve in
vest
me
nt
(bill
ion
euro)
Vehicles
Refueling stations CEV infrastructure
CH4 liquefaction
Local H2 grid
PtX plants
Electricity generation
Steam reforming plants
LBST
20
18
-12
-20
2030
Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)
Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030
51
~35 of GDP
France in 2017
(2292 billion euro)
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided
Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging
Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic
Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options
Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions
Fuel cell truck propulsion
ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options
ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses
Catenary system
ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)
ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)
ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations
Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study
Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs
Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets
Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses
53
Criteria other than costs are of
decisive strategic importance eg
zero pollutant emission energy
demand universal infrastructure
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
VI The way forward
High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV
Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks
Infrastructure developers
Fleets
Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level
ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)
ndash In the long run (pull measures only)
Key questions
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
55
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge
to ensure profitability
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Infrastruc-
ture
business
case
No visibility on
demand
High resulting
fuel cost if low
utilisation
factor
High
investment
56
FCEV CEV
10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines
3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines
17 Meuro
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
Vehicle
technology
Lack of
maturity
(technology
risk)
High TCO
High Purchase
price 57
FCEV CEV
4 3 pilot projects Worldwide
+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33
+60 compared to diesel in 2020 +53
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have
announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
Barriers Description
OEM and
value chain
lack of
readiness
No commercial
availability
No visibility on
demand for
OEMs
High investment
needed
Maintenance of
vehicles High
costs and lack of
reliability for low
volumes 58
FCEV CEV
Positioned truck OEMs
Commercial plans
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Who will be the first movers
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
59
What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first
Key success
factors
Description
Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip
Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be
deployed)
Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator
For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics
Size of fleets Very large fleets for
A lower fuel cost
A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)
A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)
A higher availability and lower maintenance costs
Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures
Types of goods
transported
Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least
sensitive to costs increase
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue
immediate economies of scale to reduce costs
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
60
Key success
factors
Description
Securing long-
term supply
contracts
Long-term supply
contract(s)
Ensuring fuel
costs
competitiveness
Focus on large fleets
Procure the electricity from
the grid at the start
Reaching
acceptable
profitability levels
Stack up revenue
streams
0 5 10 15 20 25
eurok
g
MW
Production costs of hydrogen in
function of size of plant
Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure
developers in the introduction phase
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
61
2020-2025
Very large fleet
operators with private
infrastructure
2025-2030
Large and medium
fleet operators using
the first public or
their private
infrastructure
gt2030
Small fleet operators
and individuals using
the widely available
public infrastructure
x 50-1000 x 15-50
x 1-15
Addressing very large
captive fleets with
private infrastructure
allowing for economies
of scales
Semi captive fleets
Large and medium semi-
captive fleets relying on
private infrastructure and
leveraging the first public
infrastructure on specific
routes
Going mainstream
Small fleet operators
using the widely
available infrastructure
and buying commercially
available tractors
Siz
e of
flee
ts
Source Hinicio copyright
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
62
Key success factors Description
Ensuring fuel costs
competitiveness
Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of
catenary line
Securing long-term supply
contracts
Association of many (gt5-10) actors
Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet
operators
Reaching acceptable profitability
levels
Stacking up revenue streams grid services other
types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Market push tools are needed in the short term
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
63
Short term policy recommendations
Long-term policy
recommendations
1 Market push instruments
Subsidies
Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc
2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments
Take-or-pay contracts
Public co-financing
3
Market pull instruments
Carbon pricing
Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road
and axle taxes linked to emissions)
Specific mandates for renewable energy content
Zero-emission vehicle quotas
4 Allowing for complementary revenues
Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)
Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors
Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years
There may be more tractors on the road by 2030
FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions
Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start
Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start
Take-away messages
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
64
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
65
Thank you
LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided
by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo
scientific program in support of a successful energy transition
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Study team
Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811036
E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde
Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)
T +49-89-60811034
E WernerWeindorfLBSTde
LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany
wwwlbstde
Hinicio SA Paris office
Street Paris France
wwwhiniciocom
66
Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)
T +33-1-41430630
E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom
Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)
T +32-470-721509
E HenriBittelhiniciocom
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
ANNEX
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik bbl Barrel
BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle
CH4 Methane
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon Monoxide
DAC Direct Air Capture
E e Electricity(-based)
FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GHG Greenhouse Gases
h hour
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity
LHV Lower Heating Value
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
MJ Mega joule
MW Megawatt
NPP Nuclear Power Plant
OampM Operation amp Maintenance
OPEX Operating Expenditures
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane
PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen
PtL Power-to-Liquids
RE Renewable Electricity
RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift
th thermal
WHR Waste-Heat Recovery
yr year
Acronyms amp abbreviations
68
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition
69
TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]
1 Basic principles observed
2 Technology concept formulated
3 Experimental proof of concept
4 Technology validated in lab
5 Technology validated in relevant environment
6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment
8 System complete and qualified
9 Actual system proven in operational environment
[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)
2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio
LBSTde
ludwig boumllkow
systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)
Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks
An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019
=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon
Reference
70
Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio