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Future energy demand technologies: the information ageSmart energy systems
Cliff Elwell
MRes residential week 2011
29th September 2011
Overview
• Review the incumbent energy system and demographics• Smart meters, smart grids and smart energy• System operation• Consumers, data and communications• Summary
4 pillars of energy policy
Energy policy
Economics (affordability)
Security of supply Environment Social policy
objectives
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
UK
Ener
gy C
onsu
mpti
on b
y se
ctor
(tho
usan
d to
nnes
of o
il eq
uiva
lent
)
Other (agriculture, public admin, commerce)
Domestic
Transport - air
Transport - water
Transport - rail
Transport - road
Industry
Source: DECC
UK end-use energy consumption trends by sector (1970-2009)
The UK energy system: appliances
• Appliances are a small but significant contribution to UK energy demand
Source: BERR, 2008
Energy consumption in the UK
• Other final uses are primarily agriculture, public administration and commerce
Source: DECC, 2010
Excludes transport and agricultureSource: DECC, 2010
UK demographics • Population forecast:
62 million now 77 million 2050
• Ageing population
Energy use?
• 75% of growth is accounted for by population growth Source: Department for Communities and Local Government, 2009
Projection of the number of households in the UK
• Households increase
• 21M of today’s homes will still exist in 2050
• 20 housing archetypes comprise 60% of the housing stock
What is the energy system?
Note down:• Examples of stakeholders• What is its function?• What are the boundaries of the system?
What is the energy system?
• Stakeholders• Generators, transmission network operator, distribution
network operator, supplier, equipment suppliers, maintenance crews, consumers, builders, building services engineers… Too many to list!
• Functions• The primary function of the energy system is to meet the
needs of customers.• What are the boundaries of the system?
• A definition may serve as a conceptual tool but energy cannot be separated from any function of modern society.
The GB energy system: electricity demand
Typical GB Electricity Demand Profiles (Winter & Summer Days)(Data source: National Grid)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
GB
Ele
ctri
city
Dem
and
(M
W)
Time of Day (half-hourly periods)
Typical Winter Day
Typical Summer Day
• High variability in gas demand• System operation challenges if heat pumps are run like boilers
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
GB D
aily
Nat
ural
Gas
Dem
and
(mcm
per
day
)
GB gas demand (National Grid) Local gas demand: 65 houses
Gas demand in GB
UK energy system – electricityNo vertical integration!
Supply
Large number of companies No vertical integration
DistributionNatural monopoly 14 UK regions; 8 companies
TransmissionNatural monopoly National Grid
GenerationUK mostly large scale Range of companies
The UK energy system: balancing
• Increase in inflexible plant
• Balancing may be expensive Magnitude of load changes Low utilisation Non-optimal operation of CCS
Source: DECC; pathway alpha
The UK energy system: security of supply
• Electricity system reliability Highly interconnected Outages rare
• Average <1 hr per year per customer
• Average <1 interruption per year per customer
But system designed for gas heating and non-electrified transport
And ageing infrastructure And decreasing capacity
margin• Energy gap?
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
£ m
illio
ns
Asset Age (years)
Asset Age Profile by Replacement Value (2007)
Transmission
Distribution
Data source: Electricity Networks Association
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
England & Wales
South of Scotland
North of Scotland
Northern Ireland
Tota
l tra
nsm
issi
on &
dis
trib
ution
ass
ets
(cir
cuit-
km)
Distribution
Transmission
Source: ENA
How long are the networks?
The UK energy system: heat
• Heat was 45% of energy end use consumption in 2008
• Ageing building stock: poor insulation
• Transition of heating type:– Gas Electricity
• Peak demand?– Reinforcement– Peaking generation
• Trials to validate future scenarios
The UK energy system: transport
• Electrification of transport– But availability of imported biofuels critical– Battery costs, performance, longevity etc
• Locally high uptakes of EVs and PHEVs may occur sooner than UK trend
Source: DfT, 2008
The UK energy system: electricity demand
Estimated national averaged load profile (winter peak) for full penetration of heat pumps and electric vehicles (Strbac, 2010)
Technical functional requirements of the energy system
• Interoperability• Future proof• Support the electrification of
heat and transport• Enable high penetrations of
distributed generation to connect
• Increase system efficiency
• Maintain or improve security of supply
• Facilitate high penetrations of inflexible generation plant
• Facilitate end user participation
The smart energy system
Definition
• Intelligently integrates the actions of all supply and demand side users
• Efficient delivery of sustainable, economic and secure energy
• Monitoring and control to enhance system performance
• May integrate multiple energy vectors to effectively deliver services to customers
• Alternative smart concepts
Components:• Smart meter• Smart grid
Broader:• Smart city • Smart community
What aspects of a smart grid can be defined?1
• Broad technical functionality: system requirements• Consumer outcomes• Core, mandated, components and specifications
– Smart meters– Data Communications Company etc
But• A cost-benefit case must be met for non-mandated components
– Competing smart, and dumb, technologies– Physical definition is not possible– Is value-chain definition possible?
Despite this• Models of potential end states structure thinking, provide the basis for
discussion and are necessary for the development of smart grids
1Assuming a market with regulated consumer and environmental outcomes, but minimal vertical integration or central policy to define the components of a smart grid.
Source: Dyrelund, 2009
Heat Plan Denmark: an illustration of fuel flexibility in district heating systems
System operation…
How would you operate the system under:- “Normal” conditions- High wind, low demand scenario- Low wind, high demand scenario
… back to slide 30
Example system management
“Normal” operation
High wind, low demand
Less
Charge
Low wind, high demand
Less
Dis-
charge
Complementary functions
• Complementary functions Demand management Storage Fuel shifting
• How do we heat? Heat pumps Boilers CHP District High penetrations of low
carbon technologies
• Shift operation with no loss of service: Heating Appliance operation Charging
• Availability?• Required tariffs?• Service offerings?
Consumer requirements
• Lighting• Appliances• Space heating and cooling• Water heating• Cooking• Transport• Industrial processes
Consumers and smart energy• Consumer participation in the markets• Behavioural change
– An increasing realisation that behavioural change doesn’t necessarily mean consumers changing day-to-day habits – purchases and use of control systems.
• Privacy and security of data?– A spy in your fridge?
Distribution network reinforcement costs in Coventry.
HV: high voltage; LV: low voltage; BaU: business as usual (Strbac, 2010)
Business models
• Interlinked business models a major challenge for smart systems– Little evidence for coherence from any stakeholders– Focus on “own world”– Increased acceptance that regulation and frameworks are required– Investment and reward are not currently aligned appropriately to
attract investment
Data services and communications
• Data services– Critically dependent upon regulation and consumer acceptance– The potential and value of data services is often underestimated
• New offerings• Targeted marketing• Core enabler of functionality
– New entrants and many in academia/industry: potential huge impact
• Communications– Battle of the systems/protocols
– Appliances• Working• Fault/problems
– Industrial processes
• Networks– Component stress
• Temperature• Performance
– Automatic network optimisation– Fault finding and isolation
• Consumers– Heating, cooling and ventilation
• Heat pump operation• Air conditioning• Water heating
System diagnostics and optimisation
Energy management systems
• Respond to price signals Real time TOU tariffs Programmable Participation in the market
• User friendly Simple interface Override Customisable Remote control
• Learning Storage potential
• Electrical• Thermal
Usage profile
• Effect? Energy use Service provision User acceptance
Smart systems could increase or decrease CO2
Source of CO2 reduction Smart system role
Reduced use of high CO2 peaking plant Demand management and storage
Timely connection of low CO2 distributed generation
System monitoring and control (e.g. dynamic line ratings)
Reduction in energy use Energy management and behavioural change
Installation of appropriate energy saving measures in property
High quality consumer specific data
System optimisation Monitoring and controlling devices remotely or automatically
Voltage optimisation Advanced monitoring and control
Low carbon generation Demand management and storage to provide economic system management
Smart energy system
Network management:•Advanced dynamic load and storage control
Business•TOU tariffs•New services•Proven cost-effective
Storage
Generation
Appliances and other loads
Heat: dynamic
Diagnostics and control
MEET FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS: CONSUMERS’, ENVIRONMENT, COSTS AND TECHNICAL
Smart energy systems in the UK: summary
• Electrification of heat and transport will create system challenges
• Increase in number of households
• 80% reduction in CO2 from 1990 levels required by 2050
• Meeting consumers’ requirements is key
Can new products create consumer-pull to low carbon technologies and system management strategies?
• Smart energy systems may:
Support system operation
Enhance customer experience
Lower CO2 emissions
... But they might not be the most cost effective solution
Smart grid definition: Electricity Networks Strategy Group• A Smart Grid … can intelligently integrate the actions of all users connected to
it - generators, consumers … to efficiently deliver sustainable, economic and secure electricity supplies.
• A Smart Grid employs communications, innovative products and services together with intelligent monitoring and control technologies to:– Facilitate connection and operation of generators of all sizes and technologies– Enable the demand side to play a part in optimising the operation of the system– Extend system balancing into distribution and the home– Significantly reduce the environmental impact of the total electricity supply system– Provide consumers with greater information and choice of supply
• Deliver required levels of reliability, flexibility, quality and security of supply
Storage and DSM may support system operation
Energy delivery vector
Storage medium Speed of response
Duration of response
Cost Black start
Key services
Balancing
Peak shift
Heat
Electricity Batteries ££££
Pumped H2O + ££££
Thermal energy Thermal fabric £
Hot water £
System inertia - Heat accumulators £££
Seasonal storage + £££?
Electricity and heat Fuel (CHP + boilers) + ££
Demand management N/A ££