Future Directions for Recording Technologies - THIC · Title: Data Storage Technologies - THIC Author: Mike Leonhardt Created Date: 1/7/2004 1:21:38 PM

© Copyright 2003 Storage Technology Corporation (StorageTek) Page 1

Presented at the THIC Meeting at the STK Bldg 8 Auditorium, 1 StorageTek Dr, Louisville CO 80028

July 22 - 23, 2003

Future Directions for Recording Technologies

Mike LeonhardtStorageTek

1 StorageTek Dr., Louisville, CO 80028-2129Phone: 303.673.5627 FAX: 303.673.7967

E-mail: [email protected]

Agendagoal: update last year’s presentation


›Technology Progress–Areal Density Trends

›Economic Progress–Price Trends

›Technology/Product Highlights

›Conclusions

Technology Progress

0.001

0.01

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1

10

100

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1000000

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022GA Year

Are

al D

ensi

ty (G

b/in

2 )

Parallel Track Longitudinal Tape

Narrow Track Longitudinal Tape

Helical Scan Tape

Magnetic Disk

Optical Disk

Superparamagnetic Effect

Probe Contact Area Viability

Atom Surface Density

Atom Level Storage

Probe

Volumetric

Optical

?

?

?

Tape Demos

Advanced Areal Density Trends - 2002


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1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022GA Year

Are

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b/in2 )


Linear Tape

Helical Tape

Magnetic Disk

Optical Disk

Superparamagnetic Effect



Atom Level Storage

Probe

Volumetric

Optical

?

?

?

Tape Demos

?

magnetic-basedAdvanced Areal Density Trends

© Copyright 2003 Storage Technology Corporation (StorageTek) Page 5 M. Leonhardt 4-9-02

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022GA Year

Are

al D

ensi

ty (G

b/in2 )


Linear Tape

Helical Tape

Magnetic Disk

Optical Disk

Superparamagnetic “Challenge”



Atom Level Storage

Probe

Volumetric

Optical?

?

?

Tape Demos

?

magnetic-based

Advanced Areal Density Trends



To 50 Tb/in2

by 2012 ?To 50 Tb/in2

by 2012 ?

To 1 Tb/in2 ?“discrete media”

Multi-Tb/in2

option?

“discrete media”

Multi-Tb/in2

option?To 1 Tb/in2 ?

IBM Corp.

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/sst/images/22hddcharts/g21J.jpg

Economic Progress


Storage Subsystem Price Trends(OEM price/equiv. unless otherwise noted; no capacity compression or utilization factors)

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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

GA year

Pric

e (O

EM/In

tegr

ator

- $/

GB

)

Tape Drives

Tape Drives + 100 Tapes

Tape Media Only

Enterprise Class disk subsystem - performance

low

average

average

low

Performance Disk Drives (IDC)

Desktop Disk Drives (IDC)

Enterprise Class disk subsystem - capacity

Optical Disk Subsystems (IDC)

M. Leonhardt 1-22-02

2002



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GA year

Pric

e (O

EM/In

tegr

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- $/

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Tape Drives


Tape Media Only


low

average

average

low





Disk Systems


2002



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1

10

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1000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

GA year

Pric

e (O

EM/In

tegr

ator

- $/

GB

)

Tape Drives


Tape Media Only


low

average

average

low





Disk Systems

Tape Systems


2002



0.01

0.1

1

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1000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

GA year

Pric

e (O

EM/In

tegr

ator

- $/

GB

)

Tape Drives


Tape Media Only


low

average

average

low





Disk Systems

Tape Systems

Optical Disk


2002



0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

GA year

Pric

e (O

EM/In

tegr

ator

- $/

GB

)

Tape Drives


Tape Media Only


low

average

average

low





Disk Systems

Tape Systems

Optical Disk MEMS/Probe

Enhanced Optical Disk

Holographic

New Technology “Guess”


2002



0.01

0.1

1

10

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1000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

GA year

Pric

e (O

EM/In

tegr

ator

- $/

GB

)

Tape Drives


Tape Media Only


low

average

average

low





“ATA Disk” Systems

Disk Systems

Tape Systems

Magneto-optical Disk



0.01

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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

GA year

Pric

e (O

EM/In

tegr

ator

- $/

GB

)

Tape Drives


Tape Media Only


low

average

average

low





“ATA Disk” Systems

Disk Systems

Tape Systems

Magneto-optical Disk

Revised New Technology “Guess”MEMS/Probe

slip

Holographic

slip

slip

Enhanced optical disk

Technology/Product Highlights

Magnetic Disk


› Technology leader (areal density)

› Aggressive storage density growth rate continues but more slowly–100+% CAGR to 60% or less CAGR predicted–Still a “spoiler” for other storage technologies

› Continued areal density progress influenced by superparamagnetic effect–New approaches to media, heads required, applied, in development

• Research claims up to 50 Tb/in2 !?

› Consumer products effect development, market, cost e.g. “ATA-class disk”

› ATA-class (low-cost) disk can support commercial data processing environment–Utilized in StorageTek’s “BladeStore” disk subsystem with fiber channel rates

M. Leonhardt 4-9-02

Magnetic Disk 2

› Disk drive product transitions underway–Interface connectivity, speed improvements -- ATA to SATA drive interfaces –Volume reduction -- 3-1/2” to 2-1/2” disks, form factors–New drive class -- Convergence between ATA-class and server-class disk drives

• Increased spin rate, reliability


Magnetic Tape


› Technology follower - areal density trend lags disk–Increased defect tolerance–Uses higher media surface area to compete

› Continues to leverage magnetic disk technologies

› Opportunity for more aggressive operating points

› Media improvements are key to advancement

› 1TB cartridge capacity product roadmaps target 2005-2007 –Multi-TB’s planned

› Holding on to cost advantage over other storage subsystems types -- low end under pressure from alternatives

M. Leonhardt 4-9-02

Tape Vs. Disk -- “is tape dead?” -- no!reference: Information Storage Industry Consortium (INSIC) Tape Roadmap 2002


› 10 year outlook has tape maintaining its competitive position with disk (within a narrowed market)–Present capacity, data rate ratios can be maintained–Slow down in magnetic disk density advances factored in -- 60% CAGR–Continuing disk innovation assumed -- gets tougher 5-10 years out–“Investment in tape R&D required”

M. Leonhardt 4-9-02

282828Data Rate Ratio (Disk/Tape)3.33.33.3Capacity Ratio (Tape/Disk)

TB30.30.03Disk Drive Single Platter CapacityTB1010.1Tape Cartridge Capacity

Unit201120062001Year

Magnetic Tape - Disk Capacity Comparisonreference: 2002 NSIC Tape Roadmap

10

100

1000

10000

100000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

Cap

acity

(GB

) Tapedisk - 1 platter 3.5"disk - 2 platters 3.5"disk - 3 platters 3.5"disk - 4 platters 3.5"



Magnetic Tape - Disk Data Rate Comparisonreference: 2002 NSIC Tape Roadmap

10

100

1000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Year

Dat

a R

ate

(MB

/s)

Disk Drives

Tape Drives

› “Disk drive array on a chip” using nanostructures

› IBM’s “Millipede” takes the lead– Product specifics not known– Claims of 5 -10 GB potential in “Compact-Flash” module sized

unit– Magnetic disk densities and beyond

› 10x transaction rate of performance disk expected

› Between solid state memory and performance magnetic disk in the storage hierarchy

› Small size -- good volumetrics, low power

› Highly parallel, reliable RAID architecture

› Price ?? Availability ??

MEMS-Probe(micro electro-mechanical system)


http://domino.research.ibm.com/Comm/bios.nsf/pages/millipede.html/$FILE/milli_cantilevers.jpg

MEMS-Probe 2


Electro

nics

TipArrays

MediaCoating on

Bottom Surface

1 cm

1 cm

2 mm

Electro

nics

Electro

nicsMedia

Sled

Probe Tip Pitch100µ x 100µ

Sled motion - 100µ x 100µ

media

proximalprobe

tip

XYZ movablesuspension

Move media inX or in X-Y

Move probe head inZ and Y orZ and fine Y

Large Array (>1000) of MEMS actuated Tips

Reliability (like RAID)High Data RateLow Access TimeLow Power

Optical Disk

› DVD products continue to create the majority of optical storage revenue–Expect low cost media to remain a major advantage

› Multiple optical formats persist–Create market confusion–Slow product acceptance

› Multiplying technologies (for capacity, data rate) have not been adopted–Consumer product requirements have been met without them–Product cost priorities

Optical Drives WW

Gartner

$275 M “other”

DVD/CD


Optical Disk 2


› Sony’s HD-TV DVD (3rd generation) video recorder announced 3/3/03–First device to use blue laser -- “Blu Ray” format–23 GB/disk recordable (re-writable) single layer

› Plasmon’s 30 GB “UDO” drive expected 3Q03– Leverages DVD-like blue laser technology– Commercially oriented– Roadmap to 120 GB

› Small form-factor blue laser drives in development -- Dataplay, others–~1” disks–Hand held electronics applications

Holographic


› Its potential:– Magnetic disk densities and beyond– Very low cost media -- $10/TB? -- possible removable, re-writable– High capacity (TB’s), – High data rate (100’s MB/s)– Ultra fast search potential (1 Gb/ns!?)

› Page organized -- unique architecture

› Media is key challenge, recent new types - typically using disk form-factor

› Critical component leverage from consumer product R&D

› Multiple drive, media developers– InPhase Technologies -- drive+media ~200 GB WORM– Aprilis --media ~200 GB WORM– 7 other companies world wide have significant holographic efforts


Holographic 2disk form-factor media


InPhase Technology

Data beam image

InPhase Technologies

Conclusions

Conclusions “the buts…”


› Magnetic recording is continuing to “cheat” the “limits” - but advancements are getting tougher

› Consumer product R&D benefits technology - but leveraging to the commercial sector is not necessarily easy or always appropriate

› Alternative technologies are closer than ever - but to date, they’ve achieved only limited traction

› We’re poised for change - watch this space!

Documents

Future Directions for Recording Technologies - THIC · Title: Data Storage Technologies - THIC Author: Mike Leonhardt Created Date: 1/7/2004 1:21:38 PM