Future Directions

Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger

Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved

Criminology TodayCriminology TodayAN INTEGRATIVE INTRODUCTIONAN INTEGRATIVE INTRODUCTION

EPILOGUE

SEVENTH EDITION

Future Directions



Future Studies GroupsFuture Studies Groups

• Futurist One who studies the future The task of the futurist is to effectively

distinguish among impending possibilities and make realistic forecasts

• Future criminology The study of likely futures as they

impinge on crime and its control

continued on next slide



Future Studies GroupsFuture Studies Groups

• World Future Society• Society of Police Futurists International

(PFI)• Futures Working Group (PFI/FBI joint

venture)• Foresight program (in the UK)• Future Crimes Institute



Techniques of Futures ResearchTechniques of Futures Research

• Futures research a multidisciplinary branch of operations

research whose principal aim is to facilitate long-range planning based on• Forecasting from the past supported by

mathematical models• Cross-disciplinary treatment of its subject

matter





• Futures research a multidisciplinary branch of operations

research whose principal aim is to facilitate long-range planning based on• Systematic use of expert judgment• A systems-analytical approach to its

problems



Principles of the Futurist Principles of the Futurist PerspectivePerspective

• The future is determined by a combination of factors, including human choice

• There are alternative futures• We operate within an interdependent,

interrelated system




Principles of the Futurist Principles of the Futurist PerspectivePerspective

• Tomorrow’s problems are developing today

• We should regularly develop possible responses to potential changes




• Trend extrapolation• Cross-impact analysis• The Delphi Method• Simulations and models• Environmental scanning• Scenario writing• Strategic assessment



Future CrimesFuture Crimes

• By 2025, socially significant crime in the advanced nations will be increasingly economic and computer based

• The heads of 21st century criminal organizations will be educated, highly sophisticated, and computer literate





• Identity manipulation will be a nexus of future criminality

• Criminal organizations will have their own satellites to coordinate drug trafficking and money laundering operations





• Georgette Bennett predicts areas of coming change Decline in street crime Increase in white-collar and high-tech

crime Increase in crimes by women and the

elderly





• Georgette Bennett predicts areas of coming change Shift in high crime rates from Frost Belt

to Sun Belt Safer cities, more crime in small towns

and rural areas



New CriminologiesNew Criminologies

• L. Edward Wells predicts that future explanations of crime will be: More eclectic More comparative Predominantly individualist and

voluntaristic More applied and pragmatic




New CriminologiesNew Criminologies

• L. Edward Wells predicts that future explanations of crime will be: More oriented toward explaining white-

collar crime More emphasis placed on biological

factors

• Risk factor prevention paradigm (Farrington)



Crime-Control Policies of the Crime-Control Policies of the FutureFuture

• Key issues of concern: New criminal groups Language barriers Distrust by ethnic communities Greater reliance on community

involvement Regulating the marketplace Reducing public demand Increased treatment



Can We Solve the Problem of Can We Solve the Problem of Crime?Crime?

• Criminology should be considered a metascience, superior to the criminal law rather than an auxiliary to it

• Criminologists today expect to work with politicians and policy makers in forging crime-control agendas based on scientific knowledge and criminological theorizing




Can We Solve the Problem of Can We Solve the Problem of Crime?Crime?

• Implementation of effective policies may be difficult Cultural taboos Interest groups with diverse agendas Racial divisiveness Groups that see crime as an accepted

way of doing business and do not consider criminal activity stigmatizing

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Future Directions