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1. The stock market managed to string together some modest gains yesterday , presumably on a budding sense of relief that a military strike on Syria won't be unilateral and that it would occur only after the UN's fact finding is complete. 2. The S&P futures were up five points ahead of this morning's data, helped in part as well by the positive disposition in foreign markets overnight that featured big gains in several emerging markets . To wit, the Philippines increased 3.6%, Indonesia jumped 1.9%, and Thailand rose 1.3%. 3. In terms of the economic data, the second estimate to Q2 GDP showed an upward revision as expected, only the revision was higher than expected. Driven by a large reversal in the net export contribution , Q2 GDP is now estimated to have increased at an annualized rate of 2.5%. That is higher than the advance estimate of 1.7% and the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 2.1%. 4. In the advance estimate, net exports subtracted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth. In the second estimate, though, that subtraction was entirely negated and the contribution from net exports was 0.00. The change in private inventories contributed 0.2 percentage points more to the change in GDP than first estimated, yet that increase was effectively offset by small downward revisions in other components, including state and local government spending, which subtracted 0.06 percentage points from growth versus a prior 0.04 percentage point contribution. 5. Separatel y, initial claims for the week ending August 24 didn't produce any surprises. They were pretty much in-line with expectations, slipping 6,000 to 331,000 (Briefing.com consensus 330,000) and remaining in a channel that suggests nonfarm payroll growth should be in the neighborhood of 200,000. 6. On balance, these reports seemingly fall to the side of things that would push the Fed to make a tapering announcement in September. The Treasury market has weakened further in the wake of the reports. The 10-yr note is down 13 ticks and its yield has risen to 2.82%. 7. Markets across Asia were broadly higher as only China's Shanghai Composite (-0.2%) ended in the red. 8. Prior to the recent weakness, the gains in futures were aided by mostly positive overseas action. Emerging markets have been a concern of late, but today's session saw India's Sensex climb 2.3% while the rupee strengthened more than 3.0% against the dollar. Elsewhere, the Philippines PSEi surged

Fundamental News 29.08

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Page 1: Fundamental News 29.08

1. The stock market managed to string together some modest gains yesterday, presumably on a budding sense of relief that a military strike on Syria won't be unilateral and that it would occur only after the UN's fact finding is complete.

2. The S&P futures were up five points ahead of this morning's data, helped in part as well by the positive disposition in foreign markets overnight that featured big gains in several emerging markets. To wit, the Philippines increased 3.6%, Indonesia jumped 1.9%, and Thailand rose 1.3%.

3. In terms of the economic data, the second estimate to Q2 GDP showed an upward revision as expected, only the revision was higher than expected.  Driven by a large reversal in the net export contribution, Q2 GDP is now estimated to have increased at an annualized rate of 2.5%. That is higher than the advance estimate of 1.7% and the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 2.1%.

4. In the advance estimate, net exports subtracted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth.  In the second estimate, though, that subtraction was entirely negated and the contribution from net exports was 0.00.  The change in private inventories contributed 0.2 percentage points more to the change in GDP than first estimated, yet that increase was effectively offset by small downward revisions in other components, including state and local government spending, which subtracted 0.06 percentage points from growth versus a prior 0.04 percentage point contribution.

5. Separately, initial claims for the week ending August 24 didn't produce any surprises.  They were pretty much in-line with expectations, slipping 6,000 to 331,000 (Briefing.com consensus 330,000) and remaining in a channel that suggests nonfarm payroll growth should be in the neighborhood of 200,000.

6. On balance, these reports seemingly fall to the side of things that would push the Fed to make a tapering announcement in September.  The Treasury market has weakened further in the wake of the reports.  The 10-yr note is down 13 ticks and its yield has risen to 2.82%.

7. Markets across Asia were broadly higher as only China's Shanghai Composite (-0.2%) ended in the red.

8. Prior to the recent weakness, the gains in futures were aided by mostly positive overseas action. Emerging markets have been a concern of late, but today's session saw India's Sensex climb 2.3% while the rupee strengthened more than 3.0% against the dollar. Elsewhere, the Philippines PSEi surged 3.6% and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite jumped 1.9%. 

9. Dow component Verizon (VZ 48.37, +1.81) sports a solid gain of 3.9% amid reports indicating the company has resumed talks with Vodafone (VOD 31.88, +2.47) regarding a possible purchase of Vodafone's 45.0% stake in Verizon Wireless. 

10. Out of the six cyclical groups, only the energy space trails behind the broader market with a loss of 0.5%. This comes after the sector surged 1.8% yesterday. In addition, today's weakness in oil is contributing to the sector's underperformance. 

11. Like oil, other commodities also trade in the red. Gold futures trade down 0.7% to $1409.10 and copper futures sport a loss of $3.258 per pound. 

Also of note, the Dollar Index hovers near its highs with a gain of 0.6%.

BLOOMBERG.COM

Page 2: Fundamental News 29.08

12. Las acciones estadounidenses subieron, enviando el índice Standard & Poors 500 más alto para un segundo día, ya que los datos mostraron que la economía se expandió a un ritmo más rápido en el segundo trimestre y las solicitudes de desempleo cayó.

13. “We’re back to focusing on economic data, specifically out of the U.S. and Europe, and the Fed tapering, as the market is coming around to believe the Syrian conflict poses only a short-term risk,”

14.  Manish Singh, who helps oversee $2 billion as head of investment at Crossbridge Capital in London. “I am of the opinion that tapering will happen in September, regardless of data.

15. The equity benchmark has fallen 2.8 percent in August amid speculation the Fed will pare stimulus measures and concern the U.S. will take military action against Syria.

16. Minutes of the Fed’s July meeting released on Aug. 21 showed policy makers supported cuts to the central bank’s bond-buying program this year if the economy improves in line with its forecasts. Fed stimulus helped push the S&P 500 up as much as 153 percent from its March 2009 low, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

17. The prospect of imminent military strikes on Syria receded as the U.K. and France said they favor waiting for the results of a United Nations investigation into alleged use of chemical weapons. The U.S., which says it has evidence that Syria’s government was responsible, won’t act without allies, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said today.

18. The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace in the second quarter as a smaller trade deficit and gains in inventories overshadowed the effects of federal budget cutbacks.

19. Government spending  fell at a 0.9 percent annualized rate, compared with a prior estimate of a 0.4 percent decline, as state and local outlays dropped.

20. The lingering effect of fiscal tightening is expected to wane this quarter and the next. The payroll tax had reverted to its 2010 rate of 6.2 percent in January after holding at 4.2 percent for two years, resulting in lower take-home pay. About $85 billion in automatic across-the-board federal spending cuts, known as sequestration, started taking effect in March.

21. Consumers continue to spend on big-ticket items. Car and light truck sales are on track for the best year since 2007, figures from Ward’s Automotive Group show. Combined purchases of new and existing homes are the highest since 2009, according to Bloomberg data.

22. A medida que los efectos del aumento de los impuestos y los recortes presupuestarios federales comienzan a desaparecer, los empresarios se preparan para el aumento de la demanda y la mejora del crecimiento, manteniendo su fuerza de trabajo. Mientras que las empresas son reacias a despedir trabajadores, que han hecho menos progresos en la creación de nuevos puestos de trabajo a medida que se preparan para un enfrentamiento político sobre el déficit, nuevas leyes de salud y el plan de la Reserva Federal para marcar abajo de su récord de US $ 85 billones al mes estímulo .

23. The dollar gained with U.S. stocks while Treasuries fell as a report showed the American economy grew more than forecast last quarter. Oil slid from a two-year high while European shares rose for the first time in four days.

24. Bonos del Tesoro cayeron por segundo día consecutivo que un informe mostró que la economía se expandió último cuarto más rápido de lo previsto anteriormente, el recorte de la demanda de los valores más seguros.

Page 3: Fundamental News 29.08

25. Gold retreated the most in more than two weeks as better-than-expected U.S. economic data reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to slow stimulus measures.

26. “The GDP numbers are very big, and puts the story of tapering in September back in the forefront,” Chris Gaffney, the senior market Strategist at EverBank Wealth Management, said in a telephone interview from St. Louis. “The drumming of the Syria war has receded today, taking some premium away from gold.”