FullBloombergPolitics-DesMoinesRegisterPoll

8/11/2019 FullBloombergPolitics-DesMoinesRegisterPoll

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THE BLOOMBERG/DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL

LIKELY 2014VOTERS

Study #2106 SELZER &COMPANY

1,000 Iowa likely voters in the 2014general election October 3-8, 2014

Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points 1,651 contacts weighted by age, sex,1,107 Iowa likely voters in the 2016general election and congressional district

Margin of error: 2.9 percentage points

**NoteFeb-14 (n=461) and Sep-14 (n=546) percentages based on subsets of 2014 likely voters, so they differ from topline percentagesreported in the original studies methodology documents.**

A. Are you a resident of the state of Iowa?

100 Yes Continue

- NoTerminate and do not count toward any quota; do not collect age and sex data

- Not sure

1. How likely is it you will vote in the November general election for governor, U.S. Senate and other officeswill you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote, or have you already cast a

ballot in early voting?

15 Already voted Continue85 Definitely vote

- Probably vote

Terminate, but capture age, sex, county, and 2016 vote information- Might or might not vote- Probably not vote- Refused/not sure

2. In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on thewrong track?

Right

direction

Wrong

track

Not

sure

Oct-14 n=1,000 24 67 9Sep-14 n=546 25 66 9Feb-14 n=461 23 69 8

3. What about here in Iowa? Do you think things in the state are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten

off on the wrong track?

Right

direction

Wrong

track

Not

sure

Oct-14 n=1,000 56 33 11Sep-14 n=546 56 35 9Feb-14 n=461 54 38 9


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4. Which of the following do you see as the most important issue for the next Congress to address? (Read list.Rotate.)

12 Immigration

15 Health care14 The federal deficit

13 Terrorism6 Taxes

19 Unemployment and jobs

7 Climate change

6 Foreign policy

2 Other (VOL) (specify:)1 None of these (VOL)5 Not sure

5a.

5b.

(If definitely vote, ask:) If the election for U.S. senator were held today and the candidates listed on the ballot

were [Bruce Braley for the Democrats] and [Joni Ernst for the Republicans], for whom would you vote?

(If already voted, ask:) In the election for U.S. senator, for whom did you vote[Democrat Bruce Braley] or

[Republican Joni Ernst]? (If not sure, ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not remember? (If decline

or dont remember, AC=4 in Q.6a and b and AC = 3 in Q.6c and skip to Q.7.)

(If name a candidate (AC=1,2,3 in Q.6a), fill in response for Q.6a, skip b, and code AC=1 for c.)

(Ask only of Definite voters who do not name a candidate in Q.6aAC=4): Toward which candidate

would you say you are leaning, or support the most?

(Rotate which candidate is asked first.)

Different question wording

First

Choice

Leaning

(Based on all) Total Sep-14

n=546

Bruce Braley for the Democrats 44 2 45.5 38

Joni Ernst for the Republicans 45 2 46.744

Someone else (VOL) 3 - 3.4 6

Not sure 8 4 4.4 12

c. Would you say your mind is made up to vote for (CANDIDATE NAMED IN Q.6a) or could you still

be persuaded to vote for another candidate?

(Asked only of likely voters who named a candidate as first choice. By coding those who have already voted who had

chosen a candidate as having their minds made up and adding back in those who made no first choice, based on all

likely voters. Margin of error for Braley supporters: 5.2 percentage points in Oct-14; 6.8 percentage points in Sep-

14. Margin of error for Hatch supporters: 5.2 percentage points in Oct-14; 6.2 percentage points in Sep-14.)

Sep-14

Likely

2014Voters

Braleysupporters

Ernstsupporters

Likely

2014Voters

Braleysupporters

Ernstsupporters

n=1,000 n=458 n=473 n=546 n=206 n=247

Mind is made up 80 85 85 59 72 69Could still be persuaded to

vote for another candidate 15 14 15 27 27 29Not sure 1 1 - 1 1 2No first choice 4 n/a n/a 13 n/a n/a


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6. Im going to mention some elected officials. For each, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the

way each is handling his job. (Rotate list.)

Approve Disapprove

Not

Sure

A. Terry Branstad as governor Oct-14 60 36 4Sep-14 54 42 4Feb-14 63 32 5

B. Barack Obama as president Oct-14 39 56 5

Sep-14 41 56 3Feb-14 36 61 3

C. Tom Harkin as U.S. senator Oct-14 55 34 11Sep-14 57 34 9

D. Chuck Grassley as U.S. senator Oct-14 65 27 8Sep-14 66 27 7

7. I'm going to mention the names of some people and organizations in the news. For each name I read, please tellme if your feelings toward the person are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very

unfavorable. If you dont know the person, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.).

Fav Unf

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

A. Bruce Braley, a U.S. representativeand Democrat running for U.S. Senate

Oct-14 44 43 17 27 20 23 13Sep-14 42 42 17 25 20 22 16

Jun-13* 29 17 10 19 9 8 54

B. Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida Oct-14 32 38 7 25 21 17 30

C. Joni Ernst, a state senator andRepublican running for U.S. Senate

Oct-14 47 43 19 28 17 26 10Sep-14 45 44 21 24 15 29 11

Jun-13* 8 5 2 6 3 2 87

D. Bill Clinton, former president of theUnited States Oct-14 57 39 26 31 22 17 4

E. Jack Hatch, a state senator and

Democrat running for governor

Oct-14 38 35 12 26 19 16 27

Sep-14 34 37 9 25 18 19 29Jun-13 11 11 2 9 7 4 78

F. Joe Biden, vice president of the UnitedStates Oct-14 43 51 16 27 21 30 6

G. Terry Branstad, the currentRepublican governor running for

reelection

Oct-14 60 37 26 34 18 19 3Sep-14 55 43 25 30 20 23 2

Jun-13 56 38 23 33 19 19 6

H. Barack Obama, president of theUnited States Oct-14 44 54 20 24 16 38 2

I. The Republican Party Oct-14 46 49 12 34 26 23 5

J.The Democratic Party

Oct-14 45 49 17 28 25 24 6K. Hillary Clinton, former secretary of

state Oct-14 47 49 21 26 19 30 4

L. Sarah Palin, former governor ofAlaska and former Republican

nominee for vice president Oct-14 37 57 14 23 18 39 6

M. Rand Paul, U.S. senator fromKentucky Oct-14 39 33 11 28 17 16 28

N. Mitt Romney, former governor of Oct-14 48 45 17 31 24 21 7


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Massachusetts and former Republican

nominee for president

*Jun-13 question wording for Braley and Ernst: Now, Im going to mention some people considering running for Tom HarkinsU.S. Senate seat. For eachBruce Braley, U.S. Congressman. Joni Ernst, a state senator.

Jun-13 question wording for Branstad and Hatch: Now, Im going to mention some people who are being talked about as possiblecandidates for governor in 2014. For eachTerry Branstad, governor of Iowa. Jack Hatch, a state senator.

8. Im going to mention some pairs of positions on a number of issues. For each, tell me which is closer to your

viewthe first or the second view. (Rotate list.)

1st Coded by candidate: B = Braley E = Ernst 2nd

Not

Sure

A. 50 Raise the minimum wage (B) OR Leave the minimum wage where it is

and let businesses decide what works(E)

48 2

B. 55 Repeal Obamacare (E) OR Leave Obamacare largely the way it is

(B)

39 6

C. 52 Push harder to reform thefinancial industry to protectconsumers (B)

OR Roll back reform of the financialindustry, which went too far (E)

32 16

D. 34 Focus tax reform on tax cuts toworking families and smallbusinesses (B)

OR Make the entire tax code flatter andsimpler for everyone (E)

63 3

E. 31 Add private savings accounts toSocial Security for younger

workers (E)

OR Keep Social Security the way it is now,with only minor tweaks (B)

61 8

F. 55 Address man-made climatechange because it is real and is a

threat (B)

OR Do not take action on so-called climatechange as it is just a cyclical

phenomenon (E)

40 5

G. 45 Define marriage as between oneman and one woman (E)

OR Recognize equal marriage rights forsame-sex couples (B)

50 5

H. 56 Keep abortion legal (B) OR Outlaw abortion in all but the narrowestexceptions

38 6

I. 55 Extend greater protection of theconstitutional right to bear arms

(E)

OR Make gun laws more restrictive to keepguns out of the hands of criminals (B)

41 4

J. 40 Move swiftly to passimmigration reform including apathway to citizenship for those

in the country illegally (B)

OR Wait to move on immigration mattersuntil the border with Mexico iscompletely secured (E)

52 8

9. Some ads running on Iowa TV stations have been produced and paid for by organizations tied to the Koch

brothers. How much would you say you know about the Koch brothers and their stands on issuesa lot, a little,or nothing at all?

26 A lot41 A little

32 Nothing at all1 Not sure


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10. Im going to mention some people who support Bruce Braley or Joni Ernst. For each supporter, tell me if you

think this helps or hurts the candidates. Lets start with (BRUCE BRALEY/JONI ERNST). Does (NAME ONLIST) do more to help or more to hurt the candidate? (Rotate list.)

More to help More to hurt

Not

Sure

Joni Ernst:

A. Sarah Palin 30 56 14

B. The Koch brothers 21 50 29

C. Terry Branstad 67 21 12D. Chuck Grassley 69 17 14

Bruce Braley:

E. Hillary Clinton 52 36 12

F. Barack Obama 36 53 11

G. Tom Harkin 60 23 17

H. Bill Clinton 65 22 13

11. Both the Republican and the Democratic parties want to get the economy growing and to create jobs. Which of

the following do you think is the better approach to do that? (Rotate options.)

49 Focus tax cuts on the middle class, raise the minimum wage, and invest in infrastructure to create new

jobs42 Reduce government spending, cut growth in Medicare and Social Security spending, cut taxes for

everyone, and create more tax incentives for businesses to invest in new jobs

9 Not sure

12. Turning to the general election for president in 2016, if the election were held today and the candidates were[HILLARY CLINTON FOR THE DEMOCRATS] and [NAME FROM LIST for the Republicans], for whomwould you vote[HILLARY CLINTON/NAME ON LIST] or for someone else?

(Rotate list. Also rotate order of asking Clinton versus other candidates every other interview. Based on those who say they will

definitely vote in the 2016 general election; n=1,107.)

Based on 2016 likely voters only Clinton Republican

Other/would

not vote(VOL)

NotSure

A. Jeb Bush, former governor from Florida 46 39 10 5

B. Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey 43 38 12 7

C. Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas 45 35 11 9

D. Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky 44 41 8 7

E. Paul Ryan, U.S. representative from Wisconsin and

former Republican nominee for vice president 44 43 7 6

F. Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and

former Republican nominee for president 43 44 8 5

G. Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida 45 37 10 8

13. At any time since 2007, have you considered yourself a supporter of Barack Obama? (If yes, ask:)How wouldyou describe yourself now? (Read list of AC=1-4. Based on 1,000 likely voters in the 2014 general election.)

27 Yes, I still support him as much as I ever did18 Yes, I still support him but not as much as before

5 Yes, he disappointed me and I no longer support him2 Yes, I am angry and now actively oppose him

48 No, I never supported him- Not sure


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14. If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you vote for [Barack Obama for the Democrats], [Mitt

Romney for the Republicans], for someone else, or would you not vote? (Rotate candidate names.)

2014 LV

Obama

voters 2012

n=1,000 n=459

39 58 Barack Obama

41 33 Mitt Romney

16 4 Someone else

2 2 Would not vote2 3 Not sure

[Middle East]

15. Turning now to the conflict in Iraq and Syria involving ISIS, the Islamic State: President Obama has begun

military operations with air force bombings. He has been very clear he is ruling out any U.S. troops to engage ina ground war. Some want to leave that option open. What is your thought? Do you think the U.S. should orshould not rule out having American boots on the ground in Iraq or Syria?

32 Should rule out boots on the ground59 Should not rule out boots on the ground

9 Not sure

16. Which of the following better reflects your thinking about U.S. involvement in other countries to combat seriousterrorism threats: (Rotate options.)

52 As a global military leader, the U.S. must take the lead in combating terrorism, even if it means actingalone, because it is dangerous for the U.S. to let terror groups grow

36 The U.S. is overextended from military actions over the last 13 years that have not turned out wellit is

dangerous to the U.S. economy to enter new conflicts

12 Not sure

17. Compared to five years ago, would you say you are better off financially, worse off, or about the same?

29 Better off

27 Worse off

43 About the same1 Not sure

18. Do you think it has been to Iowas advantage or disadvantage to have a U.S. senator from each political party?

53 Advantage

25 Disadvantage11 Doesnt matter (VOL)11 Not sure


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These final questions are asked just to see what cross-section of Iowans we are interviewing.

100a. What is your age? (RECORD ACTUAL AGE AND CODE WITH APPROPRIATE AGE GROUP. IFRESPONDENT REFUSES, OFFER AGE GROUPS.)

b. (CODE PROPER CATEGORY :)

2014 LV 2016 LV

4 8 Under 2512 15 25 to 34

15 15 35 to 4421 20 45 to 54

21 19 55 to 6426 23 65 and over1 - Refused/not sure

101. In the 2012 election for president, did you vote for [Barack Obama for the Democrats], [Mitt Romney for theRepublicans], for someone else, or did you not vote? (Rotate candidate names.)

45 Barack Obama42 Mitt Romney6 Someone else4 Did not vote

3 Not sure

102. How likely is it you will vote in the November 2016 general election for president and other officeswill you

definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote?

(Asked of all contacts including those who did not qualify as 2014 likely voters; n=1,651.)

64 Definitely vote16 Probably vote

6 Might or might not vote11 Probably not vote

3 Refused/not sure

103. In politics as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent?

31 Republican30 Democrat

36 Independent

2 Other (VOL)

1 Refused/not sure

b. Do you consider yourself part of the (REPUBLICAN/DEMOCRAT) base? (Asked only of those who self-identify as either Republican or Democrat; n=547.)

All Reps Dems

69 65 75 Yes

24 27 19 No7 8 6 Not sure


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104. Regardless of any party affiliation, do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement?

27 Yes62 No

11 Refused/not sure

105. Which of the following best describes your religious beliefsRoman Catholic, Protestant, some other kind ofChristian, Jewish, Muslim, other, or none?

18 Roman Catholic40 Protestant

24 Some other kind of Christian

- Jewish

- Muslim1 Other

12 None

5 Refused/not sure

106. (Ask all.) Would you describe yourself as a "born again" or evangelical Christian, or not?

34 Yes

60 No6 Not sure

107. Do you live in a city, a town, or the country?

43 City34 Town

21 Country

2 Refused/not sure

108. With what racial or ethnic group do you identify mostWhite, Black, Hispanic, Asian, or some other group?

90 White

2 Black1 Hispanic

1 Asian- Other6 Refused/not sure

109. Is your total annual household income before taxes above or below $50,000 per year?

Above ASK b

Below ASK c

b. Is it above or below $70,000 per year? 37 Above ($70,000+)

17 Below ($50,000-$69,999)

c. Is it above or below $30,000 per year? 16 Above ($30,000-$49,999)17 Below (


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110a. If a reporter from Bloomberg News or The Des Moines Registerreporter were to contact you, would you bewilling to talk more about your responses to this public poll and perhaps be quoted in a news story, or would

you prefer not?

30 Yes, willing to talk more70 No, prefer not

b. If yes, ask first name: _________________________________

c. Verify phone number: ________________________________

d. Email address ___________________________________________

111. Type of telephone

34 Cell phone only66 Landline

112. Sex:

2014 LV 2016 LV

52 50 Male

48 50 Female

113a. Record county from sample, if provided

113b. What county do you live in? (Use FIPS code. Assign to proper Congressional District in Q.114b using

supplied county-to-CD spreadsheet. If refused/not sure, code as 999.)

114a. Record congressional district from sample !114b. Record congressional district determined from Q.113b

2014 LV 2016 LV

25 25 CD125 25 CD2

26 27 CD324 23 CD4

- - Refused/not sure in county question

115. Record which sample was used for allcompletes and terminates

51 RDD landline

49 Cell phone sample

Thats all the questions I have. Thank you for your time.

Documents

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